Back To Basics: A Return to the Essentials of Urban Growth Presentation by Joel Kotkin, Presidential Fellow, Chapman University Confederation of Danish Industries Copenhagen, April 2, 2008
Competition Between Cities and Regions is a Fact of Life -- and has been for Over two millennia “Every city is in a natural state of war with every other, not indeed proclaimed by heralds, but everlasting. ” Plato, 4 th Century BC
Rise and Fall of Cities “Human prosperity does not abide long in one place” Herodotus Greek Historian 5 th Century BC
Key Factors for Decline • Inability to absorb newcomers • • Lack of upward mobility Inattention to basic infrastructure Lack of shared common culture Decline of Family
Families as History’s Bedrock “…the good news from the recovered history of the family: This smallest and seemingly most fragile of institutions is proving itself to be mankind’s bedrock as well as its fault line. ” --- historian Steven Ozment
The Cosmopolitan City The miracle of toleration was to be found, “wherever the community of trade convened. ” French historian Fernand Braudel on Venice, Antwerp, Amsterdam and London in the early Modern Period
The Expansion to Outsider Groups “the honor that knowledge will give us will be entirely ours, and it will not be taken from us by the thief’s skill…or by the passage of time. ” Louise Labé 16 th Century French Author
“there is no sin but ignorance” Christopher Marlowe, 1576
New Attitudes and Knowledge Shift the Global Balance of Power In 1601, Britain’s revenues were less than a tenth of Mogul India’s; within two hundred years, the relationship was totally reversed in England’s favor by a similar margin
“Attacks on people’s property remove the incentive to acquire and gain property” Ibn Khaldun 14 th Century Arab historian
The Key to the first Great City “The Greeks boasted of their ‘useless’ art and Egypt’s legacy lay in idle pyramids, but what were these compared to the fourteen aqueducts that brought water to Rome? ” A Roman Historian
Arts and Culture: A Look Back in Time • Great Cultural Centers generally rest upon commercial success • Venice, Florence, Amsterdam, London, New York, Los Angeles all became cultural centers after developing an expanding economy and strong middle class • Patrons of arts, not the public, key to development of cultural institutions from Macenas to the Medici, Carnegie and the Rockefellers of the 20 th Century to today’s multi-billionaires
America’s Talent: Laying Foundation of the Future • National Road proposed by Jefferson (1806) • Period of Canal Building (1800 -1850) • Construction of Railroads (1840 -1900) • Carnegie Libraries • Interstate Highways (1930 -1970) • Airports, Telecommunications
1880 -1920 Progressive Reform • Reformers in Europe, US and other industrial countries develop new sanitation systems • Development of parks in cities in Europe, the US and Australia • Commuter trains spur development of suburbs to bring people to the countryside
Depression Era: Works Progress Administration • Majority of Expenditures into “hard” infrastructure such as roads, bridges, airports, schools, electrification • Arts less than 7% of budget • Employed 3 million workers with roughly 10 million dependents • Employed 175, 000 engineers
US : Forgetting the Basics Average Public Capital Value and U. S. Population Growth 70% 300, 000 60% 250, 000 50% 200, 000 40% 150, 000 30% 100, 000 20% Percent "Core Infrastructure" Capital Value Growth (scale left) 50, 000 10% US Population (scale right) 0% 1960 1970 Sources: Demographia (2006) and Calvert-Henderson (2006) 1980 1999 0
Class Inequality: One result of fading infrastructure spending The top decile income share, 1917 - 2002
Identifying Key Trends • No simple formula and there almost always exceptions to every rule • Aging Population threatens Europe, US less so • Cities Moving away from central mission • Need to focus on sustainable economics and family friendly environment to maintain middle class • Sustainable culture must be based on liberal principles and economic opportunity
Long Term Demographics— The Recent Past Annual Average Population Growth, 1997 -2007 0. 99% 0. 97% 0. 96% 0. 65% 0. 61% 0. 34% 0. 33% 0. 12% 0. 05% -0. 46% United Canada Australia China States Source: U. S. Census International Database Korea, South Denmark United Kingdom Japan Germany Russia
Long Term Demographics— The Advanced Countries Projected Population Growth, 2007 -2050 39% 24% 18% 8% 5% 2% -8% -11% n -26% Ja pa si a R us y G er m ut So ea , or an h ar k en K K d te D gd in C ni Source: U. S. Census International Database m om na hi ia al tr us an ad a C A U U ni te d St at es -23%
Getting Older Slower Population Over 65 2007 37% 2050 33% 30% 26% 25% 25% 21% 20% 15% 13% 16% 13% 14% ea , or K Ja pa So ut h an y er m us si a G K d te ni U R in gd om an ad a C ar k en D A us tr m al ia na C hi s at e St d te ni U Source: U. S. Census International Database n 10% 8%
Roots of Current Urban Problems • Difficult city administration forces businesses to periphery • Inattention to basic urban infrastructure • Lack of focus on expanding middle class
The Ephemeral City: The Future of the Core? “a bazaar, a great gallery of shops and places of concourse and rendezvous. ” H. G. Wells — description of urban centers in the future
Thoughts on Ephemeral Cities: A Model for Europe’s cities? “Poor but sexy. " Mayor Klaus Wowereit on Berlin “A cross between Carmel and Calcutta” Kevin Starr on San Francisco
Cities without Children Percent Less than 18 Years, Select Major U. S. Cities
Nation 2002 -2006 Job Growth 4. 5% State of California 4. 3% Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, CA 3. 4% Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA 19. 4% -1. 0% Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ 18. 7% Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV 8. 8% Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, TX 6. 9% Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX 5. 8% Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD 2. 2% New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island, NY-NJ-PA 2. 1% Chicago-Naperville-Joliet, IL-IN-WI 1. 5%
People (millions) Millions U. S. Population in Urban, Suburban, & Rural Areas 1950 -1999
Growth: City vs. Suburb US Metropolitan & Central City Population: 2000 -2005 Demographia
In Most advanced countries, the Single Family Home Has Predominated as “The Universal Aspiration” “The suburban house is the idealization of every immigrant’s dream--- the vassal’s dream of his own castle. Europeans who come here are delighted by our suburbs. Not to live in an apartment! It is a universal aspiration to own your own home. ” —Los Angeles urbanist Edgardo Contini
Where Americans Would Like To Live Fannie Mae, 1998
Declustering: A Global Perspective Percentage Change in Population 1965 - 2000 Source: Demographia
Economic Declustering: Jobs Head out Percentage of Metropolitan area employment Source: Edward Glaeser, Matthew Kahn and Chenghuan Chu, “Job Sprawl: Employment in US Metropolitan Areas”, Brookings Center on Urban and Metropolitan Policy, May 2001
The Archipelago of Villages: Towards “Smart Sprawl” • • Housing near jobs Emphasis on families Strong role for village shopping streets and markets Provision of open space around the village core and housing estates • Solving the problem of “sprawl” within the Sprawl
The British Vision of Urbanity: The Garden City “Town and country must be married and out of this joyous union will spring a new hope, a new life, a new civilization. ” Ebenezer Howard
The Big Trend: Digital Impact Percent change by mode, journey to work 1980 -2000 Source: US Decennial Census
Total Annual Greenhouse Emissions By Dwelling Type Tonnes CO 2/Person/Year Institute of Public Affairs Tonnes CO 2/Dwelling/Year
What We Lost: the Pre-industrial City “The biggest jolt the Industrial Revolution administered to the Western family was the progressive removal of work from the home. ” — Dr. Peter N. Stearns, historian
Global Declustering: Telecommunications Changes Everything Monthly Cost of leasing a line from Bangalore to Los Angeles source: Oncept, Inc.
Technology Shifts the Locational Paradigm • New technology could telescope the distance between communities • Corporate functions can be more efficiently dispersed to economies with specific expertise • Technology turns everyplace into a potential global hub
“‘Town’ and ‘city’ will be in truth, terms as obsolete as ‘mail coach. ’” -H. G. Wells, Anticipations of the Mechanical & Scientific Progress Upon Human Life and Thought (1902)
Smaller cities and towns already plug into dispersed digital networks “You look ahead and you can see the possibilities of a lot of vibrant communities in these places. You have a low cost of living, a great quality of life --there’s a population there that wants to be there but can still participate in cutting edge, substantial work. ” Doug Burgum, Great Plains Software
Virtuality is Coming… I leave my house in the country and drive 17 miles through the blue grass. But when I open my computer I am at my center, it feels like I am back in San Jose. It's a kind of virtual Silicon Valley. ” Alan Hawse Director of CAD Development Cypress Semiconductor
The Key to a Successful National Strategy This above all: to thine own self be true William Shakespeare
A Useful Insight “If you need a campaign to prove you’re hip and cool, you’re not. ” Michigan talk radio host on Governor Jennifer Granholm’s “Cool Cities” initiative
Beyond Hip and Cool: Migration of Educated Workers 1995 -2005 Net Domestic Migration of College Educated, Number of Migrants per 1, 000 total Population, 1995 -2000 and 2004 -2005
The Biggest Challenge: The Issue of Potential Immigrant Underclass • Growth of poorly educated newcomers and youngsters poses a unique problem, particularly with the end of the property boom • Sense of separation from society needs to be addressed aggressively • Economic development needs to focus on their upward mobility — not “luring” the middle class, but creating one”
American Experience: When the kids get together…something happens… • Mixed race designation is officially at 2. 5 percent • But intermarriage rates are up, particularly in second generation • Barack Obama, Mariah Carey, Tiger Woods all multi-racial role models
Intermarriage rates in Los Angeles Five County area
The American future: the rise of hybrid society… • A survey of LA and NYC Latino and Asian youths finds culture more important than race • 85% of first generation Latinos, 97% second identify first as Americans • American Muslims out-perform national norms in income, education and voter participation. They are also more satisfied with their lives than most Americans • Cross-culture Latino , Asian , Middle Easter influence move into mainstream • Ethnicity matters, but less than class or culture.
Official multiculturalism is not the answer…Middle class Opportunity and Personal Contact between individuals represent the best way to the future
Beyond elitism: Jane Jacobs on the proper role of an urban economy “A metropolitan economy, if it is working well, is constantly transforming many poor people into middle class people. . . greenhorns into competent citizens. . . Cities don’t lure the middle class, they create it”
Manufacturing Employment by Skill Group, 1983 2002 Source: U. S. Bureau of Census, Current Population Survey Analysis by Richard Deitz, New York Federal Reserve Bank
Education Is a Key Part of the Upward Mobility Engine Education attained Median weekly earnings in 2005 Unemployment rate in 2005 (Dollars) (Percent) Some high-school, no diploma 409 7. 6 High-school graduate 583 4. 7 Some college, no degree 653 4. 2 Associate degree 699 3. 3 Bachelor's degree 937 2. 6 Master's degree 1, 129 2. 1 Professional degree 1, 370 1. 1 Doctoral degree $1, 421 1. 6 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, U. S. Department of Labor
Lessons from the US Heartland…and Denmark “You go where the skilled and willing labor is. People’s attitudes are key. ” Ralph Sperrazza, manager, LM Glasfibre Grand Forks, North Dakota
“We need more machinists and less poets”…Delore Zimmerman, Praxis Strategy Group
Strategies for the 21 st Century • Build housing that encourages families • Focus on diverse industries including specialized manufacturing • Build infrastructure for competitiveness • Stay Green, but remember humans matter too • A liberal culture--- tied to Enlightenment ideals---is critical for creating a successful diverse society
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