Available products for Seasonal forecasting J P Céron

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Available products for Seasonal forecasting J. P. Céron – Direction de la Climatologie

RA VI Web sites (1) n European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) n n http: //www. ecmwf. int/products/forecasts/ http: //www. ecmwf. int/research/demeter/data Met Office (United Kingdom) n n n http: //www. metoffice. com/research/seasonal/nms/ (Password-protected section for NMSs and similar organisations) http: //www. meto. govt. uk/weather/seasonal/index. html

RA VI Web sites (1) n World Meteorological Centre Moscow (WMC) n n http: //hmc. hydromet. ru (Password for access is to be provided on request) Météo France n n n http: //www-int. meteo. fr/scem/cbd/dev/ (Seasonal forecasts) http: //www. meteo. fr/special/CLIM/clim_model. html (Model anomalies) ftp site (Password-protected section for NMSs, similar organisations and specific users)

RA VI Web sites (1) n World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) n n n http: //www. wmo. ch/web/www/DPS/EPSHOME/eps-home. htm#Long-range (EPS/LRF producing centres) http: //www. wmo. ch/web/www/DPS/GDPSSupplement 5 -App. I-4. html (Definitions of forecast ranges) http: //www. wmo. ch/web/www/DPS/LRF-verificationsystems. html (Verification system for Long-range forecast)

ECMWF Products n Ocean Analysis n n Temperature anomaly along the equator (ocean cross-section), Sea level anomaly, Zonal wind stress anomaly 7 -day mean, updated weekly Tropical belt Seasonal forecasts: Nino’s indices n Nino 3, 3. 4, 4 SST anomaly plumes

ECMWF Products n Seasonal forecasts: Forecast maps n Precipitation , Temperature at 2 m , Mean sea level pressure , Sea surface temperature Ensemble mean value, Probability of below /above various thresholds Global and sub-areas Lead time from 1 to 3 months n 3 -month averages, updated monthly n n n

Met Office Products n Seasonal forecasts n n n n Temperature at 2 m, Precipitations Ensemble mean value, Probability of below /above various thresholds Global Lead time from 1 to 3 months 3 -month averages, updated monthly Forecasts for some specific regions and seasons (e. g. Sahel rainfall); winter NAO index SST for months 2 -4, 3 -5, 4 -6; Nino 3, Nino 3. 4, Nino 4 SST anomaly ensemble plumes to 6 months ahead (planned for 2003).

Météo-France Products n Seasonal forecasts n n n Temperature at 850 h. Pa, Precipitations, Geopotential Height at 500 h. Pa, Ensemble mean value and significance test, Probability of below /above various thresholds Global Lead time 1 month 3 -month averages, updated monthly Model anomalies n n n Precipitations, Temperature and geopotential at 850 h. Pa and 500 h. Pa, Sea Level Pressure, Temperature at 2 m, Wind speed at 10 m, Humidity at 700 h. Pa, Monthly, 3 and 12 overlapping monthly averages Monthly uptdated

Moscou Products n Seasonal forecasts n n n Precipitation, Z 500, MSLP, T 850, T 2 m Ensemble mean value and characteristics of uncertainty , Global Lead time 1 month 1 and 3 -month ensemble mean, updated monthly

Other usefull Web sites n n n n http: //www. cpc. ncep. noaa. gov/products/forecasts/ ftp: //ftp. ncep. noaa. gov/pub/cmb/Forecasts/enso http: //www. cpc. ncep. noaa. gov/data/indices/index. html http: //iri. ldeo. columbia. edu/ http: //iri. columbia. edu/climate/forecast/net_asmt/ http: //iridl. ldeo. columbia. edu/maproom/. Global/

The ECMWF Web site n n n http: //www. ecmwf. int/ General public documentation public forecasts: “essential” WMO Members forecasts : “additional” Similar for Seasonal forecasts

The ECMWF Web site

The UKMO Web site n http: //www. metoffice. com/ Public and password protected area

The UKMO Web site

The Météo-France Web site n http: //www-int. meteo. fr/scem/cbd/dev/ Internal access at this stage

The Météo-France Web site

Follow-up – Climate and Model n n Model Climate Anomalies and Indices monthly computed for month, overlapping season and year (subjective comparison) Web site access : http: //www. meteo. fr/special/CLIM/clim_model. html

Model Climate Anomalies and Indices

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