Australia’s experience in the subprime crisis • John Edwards • Chief Adviser -Financial Markets, Macroeconomic Group 1
International credit spreads - correlations Source: Reuters The Treasury
Spread to risk-free rate: Australian corporations Source: Reserve Bank of Australia The Treasury
International stock indices - correlations Source: Reuters. The Treasury
Securitised mortgages Source: Reserve Bank of Australia The Treasury
Australian banks’ offshore borrowing Source: Reserve Bank of Australia The Treasury
RBA balance sheet Source: Reserve Bank of Australia The Treasury
Banks’ liabilities: deposits Source: DX The Treasury
Australian banks’ offshore bond issuance ($A equivalent, quarterly) Source: Reserve Bank of Australia The Treasury
Term funding costs Source: Reuters The Treasury
Credit market spreads - Australia 5 -7 September 2007: • RBA injects $A 2. 8 b into financial system to provide liquidity. • ECB lends emergency cash to banks (42. 2 b euros). 10 -17 December 2007: • Tighter credit conditions constrain several buyouts and acquisitions. • Centro property group warns that it is facing trouble re-financing $A 1. 3 b of debt, due to the subprime crisis. 18 February – 12 March 2008: • ANZ reveals that its earnings are likely to be hurt from the fallout of the credit crisis. • Allco Finance Group Ltd. announces it will sell $A 2. 1 b of assets, after running into funding difficulties. • MFS Ltd. ’s largest fund suspends interest payments, and seeks funding support. Source: Reuters The Treasury
Internationalisation of Australian business Source: Reserve Bank of Australia The Treasury
Australia’s external position Source: Reserve Bank of Australia The Treasury
Household debt to disposable income Source: Reserve Bank of Australia and Bloomberg The Treasury
Household debt and house price growth Source: Reserve Bank of Australia The Treasury
Credit growth Source: Reserve Bank of Australia The Treasury
House prices to income Source: Reserve Bank of Australia The Treasury
Business borrowing Source: Reserve Bank of Australia The Treasury
Household saving, consumption and debt Source: Reserve Bank of Australia The Treasury
Employment, income and wealth Source: Reserve Bank of Australia The Treasury
Residential loan defaults: Australia vs. USA Australia USA Source: Standard and Poor’s The Treasury
International banks’ return on equity Source: International Monetary Fund The Treasury
International banks’ provisions to non-performing loans Source: International Monetary Fund The Treasury
International banks’ capital to assets *Tier 1 capital Source: International Monetary Fund The Treasury
Australian dollar volatility Source: Reuters The Treasury
Indicators of confidence in the economy Source: Reserve Bank of Australia The Treasury
Equity price movements Source: Reuters The Treasury
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