Astronomy the Process of Science ØWhat makes

Astronomy & the Process of Science ØWhat makes something scientific? ØWhat makes Astronomy a science? ØWhy is Astrology not science?

Final Exam Essay Question! Ø How does the process of science work? Ø What are its typical steps? Ø Illustrate your answer with multiple astronomical examples of good science from the class.

Science? Richard Feynman Ø Finding out about Nature… Ø NOT always right, sure, certain! Ø More often? Confused! Wrong!

Hallmarks of Science Ø Seek explanations from natural causes ØNot “super-natural” Example: You hear a sound at night…

Hallmarks of Science

Hallmarks of Science Ø Seek explanations from natural causes ØExample: You hear a sound at night ØSupernatural causes: ghosts!

Hallmarks of Science Ø Seek explanations from natural causes Øexample: You hear a sound at night ØNatural causes: earthquake, mice, pets, children, wind, house settling, sonic boom, thunder

Hallmarks of Science Ø Seek explanations from natural causes Ø“Nature is full of infinite causes that have never occurred in experience. ” - Leonardo da Vinci

Hallmarks of Science Ø Progresses through creation & testing of models of nature that explain observations as simply as possible. ØIf it was a storm, do you see lightning? ØIf it was an earthquake, can you check news for seismic activity?

Hallmarks of Science Ø Makes testable predictions and… Ø Revises or abandons models if predictions don’t agree with observations. (cf. nature of science)

The process of science… Ø Observe “things” in nature Ø Ask Questions Ø Create Explanations Ø Develop Testable Hypotheses Ø Do the Experiment Ø Analyze results, anticipate errors Ø Draw Conclusions Ø Share with others for independent confirmation (PUBLISH!)

The process of science… Ø Observe “things” in nature ØPatterns (seasons repeat every year) ØMotions (planets move across the sky) ØEvents (eclipses!) ØWhat isn’t there! (feeling like we are moving)

The process of science… Ask Questions about what you observed ØWhat? When? Where? How? … and WHY? ØResearch prior explanations & models ØRequires imagination to tell what is important

The process of science… Ø Create Explanations (theories) that account for what you have observed ØThese should be consistent with what is already known ØUse these to predict additional observations, patterns, events, trends

The process of science… Develop TESTABLE hypotheses ØAn “Educated Guess” ØWith a specific, narrow focus Ø Do the experiment ØFeynman: Science is how not to be fooled….

The process of science… Ø Analyze Experimental Results ØMost likely result: you can’t tell for certain if your hypothesis was right! ØNext most likely: hypothesis is wrong! ØAnd if you are right…? .

The process of science… Ø Why aren’t you “certain”? ? ØAlways uncertainty in every measurement, and in every result. ØExperiment itself might not be able to tell.

The process of science… Ø Develop Conclusions based on data Ø Anticipate sources of error Ø Refine or Discard Hypothesis Ø Develop further tests & Repeat! Ø Compare results w/ existing theories

The process of science… Ø Share preliminary results (PUBLISH!) Ø Submit a paper to peer-reviewed journal Ø Ask colleagues for input Ø Present at conferences Ø Discuss, Debate, Defend results Ø ARGUE

The process of science… Ø Seek independent confirmation then… Ø Revise Theories Ø Do new experiments Ø Develop new techniques, equipment, Ø Publish again

The process of science… Ø Astrology: Personalities and actions of people can be studied, and similarities between people can be identified. The Sun, Moon, Planets & stars and their alignments and aspects are responsible.

Astrology Consider your sunsign… Aries (Ram) Mar. 21 - Apr. 19 Libra (Scales) Sep. 23 - Oct. 22 Taurus (Bull) Apr. 20 - May 20 Scorpio (Scorpion) Oct. 23 - Nov. 21 Gemini (Twins) May 21 - Jun. 20 Sagittarius (Archer) Nov. 22 - Dec. 21 Cancer (Crab) Jun. 21 - Jul. 22 Capricorn (Goat) Dec. 22 - Jan. 19 Leo (Lion) Jul. 23 - Aug. 22 Aquarius (Water Bearer) Jan. 20 - Feb. 18 Virgo (Maiden) Aug. 23 - Sep. 22 Pisces (Fish) Feb. 19 - Mar. 20

OK, why isn’t Astrology “science”? ? Ø Doesn’t astrology follow that process of science? Ø Observe behavior trends Ø Categorize into “signs” Ø Create a theory – the planets and stars are responsible Ø Test – read your horoscope! “That’s ME!!” Ø Publish

OK, why isn’t Astrology “science”? ? ? Ø Consider the following: “I’m an Aries. My astrological sign fits me perfectly. My horoscope today said that I would have a great day today and meet a stranger, and I did! It was 100% right. ”

OK, why isn’t Astrology “science”? ? Ø Consider the following: “I’m an Aries. My astrological sign fits me perfectly. My horoscope today said that I would have a great day today and meet a stranger, and I did! It was 100% right. ” From this one instance, could you predict that on the next day it will also be right, for everyone?

OK, why isn’t Astrology “science”? ? Ø No…. You cannot make a valid conclusion from one instance where a theory does coincide with a prediction. Ø Science demands continual testing… Ø And science requires that if the prediction DOESN’T match the result even once, theory must be modified!

OK, why isn’t Astrology “science”? ? “I’m an Aries. My astrological sign fits me perfectly. My horoscope today said that I would have a great day today and meet a stranger, and I did! It was 100% right. ” But what about this person? Astrology worked for them didn’t it? Doesn’t that count for something? (Derren Brown: Astrology)

OK, why isn’t Astrology “science”? ? Ø In science, you must look for OTHER possible (natural) causes before you decide one particular theory is responsible! Ø Coincidence *does not mean* causality

OK, why isn’t Astrology “science”? ? “I’m an Aries. My astrological sig fits me perfectly. My horoscope today said that I would have a great day today and meet a stranger, and I did! It was 100% right. ” Ø Other possibilities? ØDid every horoscope match “perfectly”? ØDid everything go “great” or just what you chose to remember? ØDo you ever meet strangers on days when your horoscope doesn’t say you would?

OK, so why isn’t Astrology a “science”? ? ? “I’m an Aries. My astrological sig fits me perfectly. My horoscope today said that I would have a great day today and meet a stranger, and I did! It was 100% right. ” Ø Other possibilities? ØDid everyone born on the same day have the same results? ØCould your belief *bias* you to see what you expect to see?

Examining Astrology Scientifically Ø Astrology maintains: a) Personalities and actions of people can be studied, and similarities between people can be identified. b) The planets and stars are responsible.

Examining Astrology Scientifically Ø Astrology: Personalities and actions of people can be studied, and similarities between people can be identified. The planets and stars are responsible. Ø The first part can be true! Psychology! Ø The second part is not.

The process of science… Ø Consider the following… “The planet is getting warmer and warmer. Nature (volcanoes, the sun, cosmic rays) is responsible, not people. ” Ø The first part can be true. Ø The second part might not be entirely true!

“Non-science” doesn’t mean “Nonsense” Ø “God created the laws of motion that were discovered by Newton. ” Ø Religion often relies on faith and belief systems outside of science. Can you put a number on how much someone believes? And compare that to someone else?

Summary: Process of Science… Ø observation of data, developing questions about trends, differences, & unique occurrences seen Ø research into previous work on similar questions Ø building models & creating testable hypotheses Ø designing, & gathering new data through, experiments Ø testing & refining the models based on the analysis of new data collected

Summary: Process of Science… Ø modifying or discarding incorrect hypotheses Ø developing interconnected hypotheses into theories Ø sharing results with peers for independent evaluation and testing Ø publishing findings in peer-reviewed journals so that the community of science can advance.

Science or Non-Science? Ø Could these be evaluated scientifically? Ø “The Yankees are the best baseball team of all time. ” Ø What criteria makes it “best”? Ø Are the criteria agreed by all who are asked? Ø Challenge of “subjective” evaluations! Ø “Dogs are smarter than cats. ”

Science or Non-Science? Ø Could these be evaluated scientifically? Ø Several kilometers below its surface, Jupiter’s moon Europa has an ocean of liquid water Ø Testable? Yes! Ø But not yet…. Ø Still a hypothesis for now…

Science or Non-Science? Ø Could these be evaluated scientifically? Ø My house is haunted by ghosts who make creaking noises I hear every night. Ø You could test for audible creaking noises. Ø And test for natural causes other than ghosts to explain those noises.

Science or Non-Science? Ø Could these be evaluated scientifically? Ø There is no liquid water on the surface of Mars today. Ø Children born when Jupiter is in front of Taurus are more likely to be musicians than other children. Ø Aliens can manipulate time so that they can abduct people and perform experiments on them without people every realizing they were taken.

Science or Non-Science? Ø Could these be evaluated scientifically? Ø Newton’s law of gravity works as well for explaining orbits of planets around other stars as it does for planets in our own solar system. Ø God created the laws of motion that were discovered by Newton.