ASPRS CRSP IPT 10 Year Remote Sensing Industry RSI

ASPRS/CRSP IPT* 10 Year Remote Sensing Industry (RSI) Forecast May 24, 2000 *Views presented are IPT opinion and do not necessarily reflect NASA or ASPRS position Preliminary IPT Results Only 1

Background • As we enter the Information Era, The Commercial Remote Sensing Industry (RSI) is on the verge of a period of accelerated growth with significant potential impact on the U. S. – Socio-economic – Environmental – National security • To maximize the potential, there is an urgent need to accurately determine future customer/user-driven remote sensing needs and requirements … – Commercial – Government – Academia and measure success – Standards – Baselines – Criteria Preliminary IPT Results Only 2

Background August 1999 Under a 5 -year Space Act Agreement (SAA), ASPRS and NASA Commercial Remote Sensing Program have combined resources and expertise to develop a baseline and forecast of the Remote Sensing Industry Market Preliminary IPT Results Only 3

Vision and Mission Within 5 years, the joint ASPRS/NASA CRSP endeavor will produce a cohesive, comprehensive Remote Sensing Industry analysis that will serve as the planning standard for both U. S. Government and private industry enterprises and facilitate U. S. dominance in this highly competitive market. By the end of FY 2004, ASPRS and CRSP will jointly develop a process that: – Enables analysis of the Remote Sensing Industry – Baselines the industry – Presents a 10 -year business forecast Preliminary IPT Results Only 4

Integrated Product Team (IPT) Working Group IPTs Formed as Needed • Lit. Search: Jim Plasker • Interview: Charles Mondello and Ron Rabin • Survey: Bill Piper and Jim Plasker • Forecast: Ron Rabin and Mindy Brown • Marketing: Mindy Brown and Patrick Skrmetti Preliminary IPT Results Only 5

Space Act Agreement (SAA) Plan Preliminary IPT Results Only 6

Space Act Agreement (SAA) Plan • Phase I Characterization and Baseline Forecast of the Industry (Dec 2000) • Phase II Characterization of Customers/Users (Jan 2001) • Phase III Validate I and II (Dec 2003) • Phase IV Market Forecast (Dec 2004) Preliminary IPT Results Only 7

SAA Near-term Goals • Create and maintain interest and awareness • Develop process – – Interview Survey Literature search Market forecast • Present plan and interim results (May 2000) • Present Phase I results (Dec 2000) Your Feedback Essential Preliminary IPT Results Only 8

Market Sectors • Commercial/Private/Not for Profit • Government – Federal – State – Local • Academia Preliminary IPT Results Only 9

Remote Sensing Industry Platforms & Sensors Data Collection Data Processing Support Elements Industry Intermediaries • Hardware • Software • Etc. • VARs • Consultants • Etc. Business Segments End-User Preliminary IPT Results Only 1

Market Segments Preliminary IPT Results Only 1

Market Segments NAICS: Market segments have been mapped to the North American Industry Classification System (formerly the SIC codes) for the Remote Sensing Industry to provide the ability to correlate future economic census data retrospectively to market forecasts. Preliminary IPT Results Only 1

Utilities Transportation Telecomms National/ Global Security Real Estate Mapping Insurance Bu s in es s Government on tiio t ec lle ol Co Preliminary IPT Results Only Forestry Customer Segments Se gm en ts Commercial a ta Da Da Academia Exploration/ Resources Civil Gov’t Entertainment/ Media Environmental Agriculture Forecast Framework Market Segments In te rm D ed at ia a ri Pr es oc es si ng S El upp em or en t ts 1

Study Components • Literature Search • Interviews • Survey • Market Forecast Literature Search Interviews ANALYSIS Market Forecast Survey Preliminary IPT Results Only 1

Literature Review • Frost & Sullivan 1998/1999 • KPMG • Merrill Lynch Preliminary IPT Results Only 1

Commercial Sector Interviews Summary: • These preliminary results apply to commercial sector only • This commercial sample represents about 20% of targeted 150 companies • Government and academia sectors to be added Companies tend to operate in multiple business segments Preliminary IPT Results Only 1

Commercial Sector Markets Preliminary IPT Results Only 1

Emerging Key Factors & Barriers • Competition – The international playing field is not level. » U. S. Companies are not "part of the Government" as are foreign competitors – Foreign competitor workforce trains in U. S. – Smaller companies have trouble "staying in the game” due to investment costs – Issue: US Government role? Industry role? Preliminary IPT Results Only 1

Emerging Key Factors & Barriers • Governmental influence is pervasive. . . – Legislation and policies restrict U. S. company foreign sales, but do not hinder foreign companies – Government is predominant purchaser of data – Mergers with foreign companies are problematic – Standardization – Issues: Who should lead? Is anybody now? Could/Should U. S. Government and Industry become closer “Partners” & “Speak with one voice? ” Preliminary IPT Results Only 1

Emerging Key Factors & Barriers • Technology: Innovations needed to. . . – Speed availability of information/Enhance delivery time » “Real Time” Decision Support at user’s fingertips – Provide information valued by user – Develop system of systems that integrate/merge applications, and provide multi-disciplinary solutions – Lower costs Issues: How can the industry focus more sharply on real needs and requirements? Roles of industry? Role of U. S. Government? Preliminary IPT Results Only 2

Emerging Key Factors & Barriers • Education is multi-faceted problem. . . – Workforce trained & educated to appropriate progression of task levels » The requirement RS skills in the US is high, qualified applicants few » How many students do we train and retain? (foreign students train in US, return home) – Knowledgeable customers/users – Issues: Can “workforce” shortfalls be solved by current education "pipeline"? Whose responsibility is “knowledgeable” customer? Preliminary IPT Results Only 2

Emerging Key Factors & Barriers • Lack of customer knowledge inhibits market growth – Users are not fully aware of potential benefits – Application-based marketing and prototype testing are vehicles for user enlightenment – Issue: Industry investment is needed to cultivate the market • Economy has heavy impact on U. S. remote sensing industry – Majority of RSI companies are small and sensitive to economic fluctuations – Issue: Sales depend on available customer/user purchasing power Preliminary IPT Results Only 2

Future Industry Trends • Increased growth and competition » Scope is Global: Growing Global Market, growing global competition; U. S. Government and U. S. industry vs. foreign nations and industry at home and abroad • Continued importing of new technology: changes, insertions and improvements » LIDAR, SAR, system of systems, unattended systems, microsystems, etc. • Increased personal use of remote sensing information Also mentioned: More timely delivery, continuing shortage of qualified people, fewer companies (mergers, failures, realignments) Preliminary IPT Results Only 2

Market Forecast Preliminary IPT Results Only 2

Market Forecast • 150 Interviews will be used to profile commercial organizations – 20% Complete – Government and Academia Sectors will be added • Survey to include entire ASPRS membership and other industry groups [August - October 2000] • Phase I interview and survey results available [December 2000] • Literature search • Analysis • Market forecast Preliminary IPT Results Only 2

Current World RSI Market Projections Based on conventional approaches. . . • 2000 World RSI revenues estimated over $4 billion – U. S. market » Aerial imagery dominates » Software is significant component » High resolution space-based imagery just entering market • Increasing demand for high-resolution panchromatic and multispectral data (space-based collection) • Basic market strategy: Technology push to new consumerdriven markets • Integrated orthophotography unit cost declining Preliminary IPT Results Only Source: Frost & Sullivan 1999 2

Projected Market Forecast World wide Remote Sensing Market • Assumes inelastic market, therefore could be conservative • Out years difficult to predict • Market analysis process will better define the future Based in part on Frost and Sullivan, 1999 What Happens When You Go “Out-of-the-Box”? Preliminary IPT Results Only 2

What If. . . ? ? ? • Space-based imagery proliferation results in new markets • The workforce issues are resolved • User knowledge/awareness is enhanced • U. S. Government levels the playing field for international competition Preliminary IPT Results Only 2

What If. . . ? ? ? Technologies are combined in creative, innovative ways to meet customer/user requirements • Existing technologies inserted in existing application – – LIDAR Radar SAR/IFSAR Commercial satellites • New systems are created to support RSI – – Unattended systems Systems of systems Knowledge-based decision aids Personal use systems – GPS • Emergent technologies enrich existing applications – Electronic & wireless information transfer – Hyperspectral – Multi-returns radar – Foliage Penetrating (Fopen) radar Preliminary IPT Results Only • New technologies create new merged applications – – Micro-electronics Micro power Multi sensors in single platforms Bandwidth increase Time 2

and What if ? ? ? . . . • Remote sensing resources are increasingly applied to broader issues related to socioeconomic improvement, environment, infrastructure, disaster mitigation, etc Then • Use of remote sensing information becomes increasingly ubiquitous and transparent to users, especially in the domain of personal-use systems More Answers at the December Meeting Preliminary IPT Results Only 3

Estimating/Forecasting Future RS Market Example Factors for Consideration • Addressable market • Potential sales; revenues; profit margins • Investment • Potential influences of market globalism • Better market measures Preliminary IPT Results Only 3

Market Summary Growth? YES!!! Amount related to creative, innovative solutions to meet real needs of users and customer’s requirements with focus on remote sensing information rather than simply supplying data and imagery More details in December Preliminary IPT Results Only 3

Industry Research & Survey Methodology Preliminary IPT Results Only 3

ASPRS/NASA Joint Industry Survey Purpose To better understand the industry: • Current baseline of industry • A 10 -year industry forecast • An estimate of future industry trends • Future workforce needs Preliminary IPT Results Only 3

Survey Plan Outline • Perform preliminary interviews • Develop online questions • Design database Preliminary IPT Results Only • Expand on premise • Establish e-mail list • Collect/analyze data 3

Commercial Survey Objective To characterize the Remote Sensing Industry for current operations and future expectations in terms of: • Average firm size • The primary markets they serve • Trends and directions of the industry forces affecting the growth of the industry • Establishing the current and future workforce needs Preliminary IPT Results Only 3

Academic Survey Objectives • To define the changes in the 2000 -2010 period: – numbers of students, majors/minors, degrees, certificates – faculty recruitment- specialties to be hired – technology acquisition and laboratory development – disciplinary and interdisciplinary program development • To understand the business and governmental environments most applicable to this community. For example: – business-university partnership commercialization efforts – research – funding, equipment funds – registration/certification regulations – friction between private sector and educational project work Preliminary IPT Results Only 3

ASPRS/NASA Joint Industry Survey We Will Be Conducting an Online Survey That Will Begin Like This: Preliminary IPT Results Only 3

Industry Survey Click here to begin Preliminary IPT Results Only 3

Care to Join Us? ? ? Contact: Charles Mondello or Ron Rabin forecast@asprs. org For copies of presentation: www. asprs. org Contributing Organizations Include: NOAA Spencer B. Gross, Inc. University of Utah Kodak Space Imaging Earthdata Technologies PAR Government Systems Autometric Preliminary IPT Results Only 4

The End Preliminary IPT Results Only 4