Скачать презентацию Arkeometri A B D Semineri F B E
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Скачать презентацию Arkeometri A B D Semineri F B E
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Arkeometri A. B. D. Semineri, F. B. E. , ODTÜ ESS 501 Introduction to Near Earth Space , Yurdanur Tulunay Orta Doğu Teknik Üniversitesi Havacılık ve Uzay Mühendisliği, 06531 Ankara (e-mail: ytulunay@ae. metu. edu. tr) 3/17/2018 ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU 1
Arkeometri A. B. D. Semineri, F. B. E. , ODTÜ Earth System Science Space Weather and Technology Yurdanur Tulunay Middle East Technical University , Department of Aerospace Engineering, 06531 Ankara (e-mail: ytulunay@metu. edu. tr) 3/17/2018 ESS 501 ODTÜ/METUAnkara 2
Content • • Introduction What is ESS What is Space Weather L. Lanzerrotti’s Presentation Examples What do we do Results conclusion 3/17/2018 ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara 3
Introduction • Since 1980 a paradigm emerged in geosciences, analogous to • plate tectonics revolution of 1950 s and 1960 s. 3/17/2018 ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara 4
(Paradigm : It typically defines what a given individual is willing to accept of her or his field, or how they perform their own work within it, Oxford Dictionary) 3/17/2018 ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara 5
This paradigm called "Earth System Science" (ESS) or "Earth System" 3/17/2018 ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara http: //serc. carleton. edu/introgeo/earthsystem/index. html 6
EARTH only planet we know of that sustains LIFE 3/17/2018 ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara http: //serc. carleton. edu/introgeo/earthsystem/index. html 7
Acknowledges • changes in the solid earth • changes result from interactions among • NES, Atmosphere, Hydrosphere, Biosphere and Lithosphere 3/17/2018 ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara http: //serc. carleton. edu/introgeo/earthsystem/index. html 8
Changes in the solid E+ result from interactions among the atmosphere hydrosphere - biosphere and the lithosphere 3/17/2018 ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara http: //serc. carleton. edu/introgeo/earthsystem/index. html 9
Example Increasing awareness of the role of microbes in generating ore deposits. 3/17/2018 ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara http: //serc. carleton. edu/introgeo/earthsystem/index. html 10
Example The way tectonics influences weathering rates, which in turn affect global climate. 3/17/2018 ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara http: //serc. carleton. edu/introgeo/earthsystem/index. html 11
ESS systematically introduces concepts and resources centered on space – air – water – land – life and human dimensions. 3/17/2018 ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara http: //serc. carleton. edu/introgeo/earthsystem/index. html 12
In the following slide the concept of a pyramidal structure illustrates the relation of the ESS and global change education in the larger interest of society. At the lower level of the pyramid information and knowledge from the basic sciences , disciplines are important. 3/17/2018 ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara 13
The next level is information and knowledge show to integrate the discipline of interest with the other relevant disciplines. Within the pyramidal structure one can find out who will advise, manage, direct and lead humankind activities. 3/17/2018 ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara 14
Within the pyramidal structure one can find out who will advise, manage, direct and lead humankind activities D. Johnson. M. Ruzek, M. Kalb, Computer and Geosciences, vol. 26, pp. 660 -676, 2000) 3/17/2018 ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara 15
Future of our planet and destiny of humankind are dependent upon this interdisciplinary pyramid of ES forms the scientific integrating basis for any discussion of the system as a whole. 3/17/2018 ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara http: //serc. carleton. edu/introgeo/earthsystem/index. html 16
There is no process or phenomenon within the ES which occurs in complete isolation from the other elements of the system , in particular the Sun, therefore, the Near Earth Space (NES) 3/17/2018 ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara 17
Future of our planet and destiny of humankind are dependent upon this interdisciplinary pyramid of ES forms the scientific integrating basis for any discussion of the system as a whole. 3/17/2018 ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara http: //serc. carleton. edu/introgeo/earthsystem/index. html 18
In the mid-1980’s NASA began a systems approach to cataloging the elements of the Earth System, their linkages, dependences and fluxes. This simplified version focuses on the physical elements of the system, but relegates human processes to a simple box. i. e. Physical Elements of the system and human processes forming a simple box. http: //serc. carleton. edu/introgeo/earthssystem/index. html 3/17/2018 ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara 19
CHALLENGE is : How to quantify various elements, states, and processes within the system ? As an illustration, next slide shows the relevant interactions of physical and dynamical properties. The scales involved vary (i) in spatial scales: from mm to the circumference of the Earth (ii) in temporal scales: from seconds to billion of years 3/17/2018 ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara 20
Physical Elements of the system and human processes forming a simple box System approach: Elements of the E+ system, their linkages, dependencies and fluxes 3/17/2018 ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara http: //serc. carleton. edu/introgeo/earthsystem/index. html 21
From space can view the Earth as a whole system, observe the net results of complex interactions, 3/17/2018 ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara http: //serc. carleton. edu/introgeo/earthsystem/index. html 22
begin to understand how the planet is changing in response to natural and human influences 3/17/2018 ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara http: //serc. carleton. edu/introgeo/earthsystem/index. html 23
ESS has begun to understand quantify the effects of “forcings” on the climate system 3/17/2018 ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara http: //serc. carleton. edu/introgeo/earthsystem/index. html 24
The next slide estimates of the globally and annually averaged radiative forcings (in watt/sq. m) due to a number of anthropogenic and natural factors from pre-industrial times (1750) to 2000. The height of the rectangular bars indicates midrange estimates of the FORCINGS: 3/17/2018 ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara 25
(Houghton, J. , 2002) 3/17/2018 ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara 26
The error bars show estimates of the uncertainty ranges. Note that only the range of values, not a central estimate, is shown for the indirect aeorosol forcing, because of its large uncertainty. The contribution of individiual gases to the direct greenhouse forcing are indicated in the first bar; the forcings associated with changes in Ozone are shown in the second and third bars. 3/17/2018 ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara 27
Estimates of the forcings (globally averaged values) due to changes in aerosols are shown in the following bars. The last two bars are estimates of the forcings associated with changes in land use because of the changes in albedo and with possible variations in the input of solar radiation. Also included is an index of scientific understanding for each forcing representing a subjective judgement about the degree of knowledge and understanding regarding the mechanisms involved. (“Summary of Policymakers”, IPCC, 2001) 3/17/2018 ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara 28
In the ESS , the various processes act in concert to define both a backgound state (CLIMATOLOGY) and a disturbed state (WEATHER) (R. W. Schunk, Space Weather, Geophysical Monograph 125, AGU, WDC, 2001). In other words, slow variations of long term averages are the subject of climatology ; and the short term variations are the subject of weather. The influence of fluctuations of the solar source can be the atmost importance for the terrestrial climate (besides, continential drift, ocean currents, vulcanism; position of the Earth in space, the fall of the bodies into the NES etc. ) 3/17/2018 ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara 29
This influence can be direct: (i) if solar irradiance is tied with solar magnetic activity , it is reasonable to expect that irradiance and sunspot numbers are correlated with each other. In order to determine whether a climatic effect is visible , we must have irradiance information available on climatic scales of many decades to centuries. Unfortunately, irradiance data goes back to only 1980’s. (SWARM-Internet Space Weather and Radio Propagation Forecasting Course, 1996 -2001). In other words, Solar radiation varies according to the nature of the emission site-a sunspot does not radiate in the same way as a facula or a coronal hole. A variation of 0. 3 % of the solar constant(!) (i. e. 4 Watts per Sq. m) results in average variation of 0. 4 deg. of celsius of the average temperature on the Earth. Certain studies show an influence of the 11 – year solar cycle on some meteorological phenomena. (J. Lilensten and J. Bornarel, Space Weather, Enviroment and Societies , Springer , 2006) 3/17/2018 ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara 30
(ii) The written records of the sunspots dates back to 1600 AD. Chinese sunspot observations are sporadic and dates back to 3000 -4000 years ago. Indirectly the C 14 content in trees will be anticorrelated with solar activity. That is, C 14 is produced by the cosmic rays. Due to the Forbusch decrease if cosmic ray concentration is low, then this period is a high sunspot or active solar activity period. There exist very early observations of auroral observations from Chine, Japan and Korea. 3/17/2018 ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara 31
The little ice age was the name given to the period between 1550 to 1750 when winters were so called that the big rivers of mid-latitude Europe froze over. Between 1650 and 1750 there was a heavy draught in the South-West of North America. The whole period correspondance to the Maunder minimum during which there were no sunspots on the Sun. The Sun was unusually active between 1100 and 1250 AD – called “ Grand Maximum”. During this period , even in the northern countries the climate was so mild that wine could be grown at latitudes beyond 50 deg. N ! (F. Jansen, Space Weather Consortium , Space Weather CD-ROM, ESTW, 2002) 3/17/2018 ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara 32
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![climate system produced by solar variability increasing concentrations of [CO 2], aerosols. trends detected](https://present5.com/presentation/7cd6a496aaac2e6ae961734450b587b1/image-34.jpg "climate system produced by solar variability increasing concentrations of [CO 2], aerosols. trends detected")
climate system produced by solar variability increasing concentrations of [CO 2], aerosols. trends detected also 3/17/2018 ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara http: //serc. carleton. edu/introgeo/earthsystem/index. html 34
What is Space Weather? 3/17/2018 ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara 35
• Our Sun is one of the ordinary stars of the Milky Way Galaxy which consists of about 100 billion stars. The Milky Way (MW) is only one of about 100 billion galaxies that exist in our Universe. • The Sun orbits the center of the MW every 225 million years. Therefore, our solar system rotates around the center of the MW at a speed of 830 000 km per hour. • The sun radiates at all wavelengths from gamma rays to radio waves as depicten ın the next slide. (F. Jansen, 2002) 3/17/2018 ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara 36
The Sun radiates at all wavelengths from gamma rays to radio waves as shown in the next slide. 3/17/2018 ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara 37
The yellow line shows the Sun’s spectrum form X-rays to 38 3/17/2018 ESS 501 radio waves. ODTÜ/METU Ankara
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Departments of Space Sciences and Technology (ESF-SSC, 1990) 3/17/2018 ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara 41
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(Courtesy of L. Lanzerotti, ESSW 4, 5 -9 Nov. 2007, Brussels) STRUCTURE 1. What is space weather Issues for a. b. c. d. Upper atmosphere effects Charged particle environments Humans in Space Upstream drivers of space weather Extreme events Long-term change Summary 3/17/2018 ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara 44
What is space weather? • Space weather is the physical and phenomenological state of natural space environments. The associated discipline aims, through observation, monitoring, analysis and modelling, at understanding and predicting the state of the interplanetary and planetary environments, and sun, the solar and non-solar driven perturbations that affect them; and also at forecasting and nowcasting the possible Text: courtesy COST Action 724 impacts on biological and technological systems. L. Lanzerotti Image: courtesy 3/17/2018 ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara 45
Upper atmosphere • Dominates (~90%) economic impact of Space Weather – Potentially large Euro market for Sp. W services • Effects include drag, radio propagation, induction sources SAR – along-track coherence of ionospheric path E/F region – reflection/refraction – magnetic storms/aurora D region – absorption X-ray flares, protons 3/17/2018 ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara Comms/GNSS Scintillation – loss of phase lock 46
Energetic particles in space • Strategic issue for spacecraft design & operations – Potential Euro market for Sp. W services • Diverse space-based effects – charging – by ke. V-Me. V electrons (rad belt, aurora, plasmasheet, SEP) – radiation damage (e. g. solar cells, DNA) – by > Me. V ions (rad belt, SAA, solar events, cosmic rays) – single event effects (state changes in microelectronics) – by >> Me. V ions (rad belt, solar events, cosmic rays) 3/17/2018 Cluster array power ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara 2001 -2007 47 Image: courtesy ESA
Energetic particles in the atmosphere • Very energetic particles (> Ge. V) penetrate the atmosphere • … semiconductor memory failures induced by cosmic radiation are no – Cosmic rays, solar energetic particles longer an “aerospace problem”. Such – Influx controlled by geomagnetic field (highest at poles) failure mechanisms must be accounted – Collisions generate secondary neutrons (peak flux ~ 20 km, significant at for in automotive electronics systems 10 km, some flux at surface) design. • Cause significant single event effects in avionics • www. automotivedesignline. com, June • SEE now growing issue for ground-based electronics 2006 – dominant factor limiting reliability of digital electronics – major issue for safety-critical systems, e. g. in cars – also issue for range of high-voltage power systems • Cosmic rays also influence atmosphere 3/17/2018 – Clear link with cloud ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara cover in maritime regions (Harrison, 2006) 48
Humans in space • Radiation is direct hazard to astronauts – DNA damage, increased cancer risk, • Space station protected by Earth’s magnetic field • Moon and Mars are NOT protected Danger on Mars radiation hits on rover camera The luck of Apollo 3/17/2018 ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara 49
Upstream drivers • Space Weather is a natural hazard – a consequence of living near a star – Analogous to living next to volcanoes, rivers, etc Need to understand science that controls this environment – Behaviour of that star – How energy and momentum propagate to our planet Propagation includes – Solar wind + embedded magnetic field – Plasma transport across magnetopause (confinement boundary) – Magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling – magnetically guided 3/17/2018 Common physics with magnetically ESS 501 confined plasmas for fusion ODTÜ/METU Ankara Courtesy NASA 50
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Extreme Events Extreme events are important as they produce major disruption often beyond scope of routine mitigation. • But they are rare – so main issue is detection and then patience until normal conditions return. • Which critical systems need to cope? • How to advise users on the day? 3/17/2018 ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara 52
Long-term change in Sp. W • Solar change – Are we at grand (300 -year) maximum in solar activity (& its effects at Earth)? – Will 21 st century see collapse in activity (similar to 17 th century)? – What are consequences: enhanced cosmic ray fluxes, bigger solar particle events? • Green-house gases rend Rising t 1860 netic geomag in activity 2010 – Will cool upper atmosphere – Some evidence in long-term ionospheric data-sets – Also evidence from EISCAT continuous run for IHY • Geomagnetic field – Westward motion of SAA – Decline in magnetospheric protection 3/17/2018 ESS 501 1930 ODTÜ/METU Ankara 53 2010
(Courtesy of L. Lanzerotti, ESSW 4, 5 -9 Nov. 2007, Brussels) SUMMARY • Space Weather has increasing impact on people and technology – Not limited to space, has very profound effects in upper atmosphere and applications therein – Growing awareness of sea-level effects and their impact on applications (e. g. electronics, power grids, etc). – Has role in “Space Situational Awareness” • Highlights need to understand space environment 3/17/2018 ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara 54
“Condition on the sun and in the solar wind, magnetosphere, ionosphere, and thermosphere that can influence the performance and reliability of spaceborne and ground-based technological systems and can endanger human life or health. ” (US NS Weather Plan) 3/17/2018 ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara 55
“Space Weather” is the physical and phenomenological state of Ecospace, the region where human activities interact with the terrestrial and space environments. Maserotti, 2004 3/17/2018 ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara 56
Why is Space Weather so Important ? Space Weather is an application-oriented discipline and addresses the needs of users. But, it is important to note that basic research in the field of Solar-Terrestrial Physics is necessary for Space Weather applications. SOLAR-TERRESTRIAL PHYSICS SPACE WEATHER Basic Research Scientific Observations Continuous Monitoring Scientific Products 3/17/2018 Application Oriented Service Products ESS 501 (Norma Crosby, Private Comm. ) 57 ODTÜ/METU Ankara
The aurora borealis as seen from the ground. Different colors arise because different atmospheric gases are excited, and the excitation occurs at different altitudes as a result of the wide energy spread of the exciting electrons (from: Rice University educational home pages; http: //space. rice. edu/). 3/17/2018 ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara 58
This image of the auroral oval shows the bright emissions that occur in the atmosphere at altitudes between 80 and 300 kilometers when atoms are excited by energetic electrons traveling along magnetic field lines. This image was obtained from the Dynamics Explorer spacecraft over the north polar region during winter, when the entire aurora borealis was over the night hemisphere of the Earth. (from: Dynamics Explorer University of Iowa Imaging Experiment, L. A. Frank principal investigator). 3/17/2018 ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara 59
This figure attempts to show to cyberelectrosphere emerges from an interaction between the subjects socitey, science and space weather Before science the overlap of society and space weather in the form of low altitude auroras that acompany space storms gave rise to omens and wonders Societ y Those components of which that are vulnerable to space weather distrubances form the cyberelectrosphere at the center of the triquetra 3/17/2018 Omen Wonder s Space Weath Cyberelectr er o-sphere Technology Scienc e Space Physics & Aeronomy The cyberelectrosphere denotes a global, electrically enabled, technological environment that space storms attack The overlap of space weather and science has given rise to the fields of space physics and aeronomy G. Siscoe, Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics 62 (2000), 1223 -1232 ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara 60
The future European navigation system “Galileo” will contain some measures to compensate for space weather effects. This image shows the first few satellites of the system. WIRED FOR POWER SPACE SHIP EARTH LINKED FOR COMMUNICATI ON SERVICED BY SATELLITE S NETWORKED FOR INFORMATION F. Jansen, R. Hippler, Space Weather Edition II CD, Univ. Greifswald, Inst. Of Phys. , Germany. 3/17/2018 ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara 61
Halloween Storm x 17. 2 and 10. 0 flares! ( Oct 28) Sunspots (Oct 28 -07: 14 h) 0: 00 h 24: 00 h 11: 06 h October 28, 2003 3/17/2018 6: 00 h 12: 00 h 18: 00 h 11: 16 h October 29, 2003 http: //sohowww. nascom. nasa. gov ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara 62
F. Jansen, R. Hippler, Space Weather Edition II CD, Univ. Greifswald, Inst. Of Phys. , Germany. 3/17/2018 ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara 63
Problems in Birds’ Navigation Homing pigeons and most migrating birds use the magnetic field of the Earth to navigate. They have tiny magnets in their brain which act as a kind of compass. If the magnetic fields is distorted during a geomagnetic storm, the birds may get lost and cannot find home. F. Jansen, R. Hippler, Space Weather Edition II CD, Univ. Greifswald, Inst. Of Phys. , Germany. 3/17/2018 ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara 64
In the framework of the global electric circuit between the Sun and the Earth the probable influence of Cosmic Rays have been studied. In this context it is expected that cloudiness will increase during solar minimum periods. Why? 3/17/2018 ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara 65
(Carslaw et al. , 2002) 3/17/2018 ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara 66
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What Do we Do in Turkey? Some typical Examples 3/17/2018 ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara 68
Any space weather service must be able to give reliable predictions of the Sun’s activity and its impact on the space environment and human activities. 3/17/2018 ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara 69
The ST and atmospheric environments is influenced by extraterrestrial and terrestrial EM and electrodynamic processes, intimately linked to global climate change. 3/17/2018 ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara 70
Since 1990’s European Union Actions COST 238; COST 251; COST 271; COST 296; COST 724 ESF SPECIAL I and II; E-STAR Framework Programs: FP 6; FP 7 3/17/2018 ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara 71
* ANN is a novel structure of the information processing system. * composed of a large number of highly interconnected processing elements (neurones) working in parallel to solve specific problems. 3/17/2018 ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara 72
Case-1 : METU-NN model for non-linear agro-environmental systems (Tulunay, 2002) 3/17/2018 ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara 73
Observed and Forecast Flow values versus the order of data points. Superimposed in a solid line is the one month advance forecast values of the Flow. 3/17/2018 Scatter Diagram of the Forecast and Observed Flow values with the linear fit line. A fitted line has a slope close to 45 passing through the origin ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara 74
Case-2 : METU-NN model for low altitude clouds (Tulunay, 2003) 3/17/2018 ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara 75
One month ahead Forecast (solid) and Observed (dashed) % Cloud fraction values (April 1989 to December 1990). 3/17/2018 One month ahead Forecast versus Observed % Cloud fraction values with linear fit line. ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara 76
Case-3 : METU-NN model for Solar Flux Forcasting ( Özkök, 2005) 3/17/2018 ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara 77
Horizontal axis refers to the normalized obtained values; vertical axis refers to the normalized measured values. One hour ahead forecast of solar fluxes at 2695 MHz 3/17/2018 ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara 78
Forecasters & Ops Specs Models Pamplona, Feast of St. Fermin, July 7, 2001 3/17/2018 ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara J. Kunches, NOAA SEC, COSPAR 2002, Houston, October 19, 2002. 79
CONCLUSION 3/17/2018 ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara 80
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Sp. W is set to become of increasing importance in our daily lives as our dependence on technological systems increases. 3/17/2018 ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara 82
Although learnt a great deal about the Sun-Earth system and its effects on the Earth still far from understanding the complete picture. 3/17/2018 ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara 83
More research is still needed to reliably predict the strength and duration of a space weather event at the Earth 3/17/2018 ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara 84
Data driven forecast and modeling is very promising in Space Weather applications. 3/17/2018 ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara 85
Applications can be twofold: • Future • Retrospective 3/17/2018 ESS 501 ODTÜ/METU Ankara 86
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