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ARCs Council Tallahassee, Florida 21 October 2007 ARCs Council Tallahassee, Florida 21 October 2007

Agenda n n Introductions and background Review of recent progress (5 min each) ¨ Agenda n n Introductions and background Review of recent progress (5 min each) ¨ ¨ ¨ n Climate Diagnostics ARC (ESRL/PSD; formerly CDC) COAPS (Florida State U) COLA CSES ARC (U Washington) ECPC (Scripps/U California San Diego) Affiliated centers (IRI, GFDL, GMAO, NCEP) Next steps to take as a group contributing to the CTB ¨ the reanalysis and attribution project of CDEP ¨ other program elements in the NOAA Climate Program ¨ Balance among these three (Ropelewski) ¨ n any other items requiring discussion

Agenda n n Introductions and background Review of recent progress (5 min each) ¨ Agenda n n Introductions and background Review of recent progress (5 min each) ¨ ¨ ¨ n Climate Diagnostics ARC (ESRL/PSD; formerly CDC) COAPS (Florida State U) COLA CSES ARC (U Washington) ECPC (Scripps/U California San Diego) Affiliated centers (IRI, GFDL, GMAO, NCEP) Next steps to take as a group contributing to the CTB ¨ the reanalysis and attribution project of CDEP ¨ other program elements in the NOAA Climate Program ¨ Balance among these three (Ropelewski) ¨ n any other items requiring discussion

NOAA Applied Research Centers (ARCs) and CTB n n The NOAA Applied Research Centers NOAA Applied Research Centers (ARCs) and CTB n n The NOAA Applied Research Centers (ARCs) conduct mission-oriented applied R&D with stable funding under five-year renewable institutional awards. Each Center has a unique capability to contribute to the NOAA Climate Program’s objectives. (from CPO: http: //www. climate. noaa. gov/cpo_pa/cdep/) The ARCs collaborate with CTB to accelerate transition of new and improved science-driven climate forecast & analysis products into operations (R 2 O) with emphasis on specific CPC product ranges (6 -10 day, week 2, monthly, seasonal) (from CTB Interim Report 2007) The ARCs are also beginning a new activity to enable the research community to make use of CTB models (O 2 R) ARCs: ¨ ¨ ¨ Climate Diagnostics ARC (ESRL/PSD; formerly CDC) COAPS (Florida State U) COLA CSES ARC (U Washington) ECPC (Scripps/U California San Diego) Affiliated centers (IRI, GFDL, GMAO, NCEP)

Review of Recent Progress n n n Climate Diagnostics ARC (ESRL/PSD; formerly CDC) COAPS Review of Recent Progress n n n Climate Diagnostics ARC (ESRL/PSD; formerly CDC) COAPS (Florida State U) COLA CSES ARC (U Washington) ECPC (Scripps/U California San Diego) Affiliated centers (IRI, GFDL, GMAO, NCEP)

Center for Ocean-Land. Atmosphere Studies (COLA) n n Vision: Global society benefits from use-inspired Center for Ocean-Land. Atmosphere Studies (COLA) n n Vision: Global society benefits from use-inspired basic research on climate variability, predictability, & change and free access to research data & tools Mission: Explore, establish and quantify the predictability of seasonal to decadal variability in a changing climate Support: COLA is a part of IGES, an independent non-profit institute, and is supported by NSF (lead), NOAA and NASA through a single jointly-peer-reviewed, jointly-funded fiveyear “omnibus” proposal (current: 2004 -2008) Core Competencies: Evaluation of and experimentation with Nation’s climate models ¨ Scientific leadership in S-I predictability ¨ Collaboration with Ph. D program in Climate Dynamics at GMU ¨ Gr. ADS and GDS - highly-valued, widely-used information technology ¨ n Accomplishments: ¨ ¨ ¨ Jim Kinter COLA viewed as major interagency program (e. g. US National Research Council report) Quantified dynamical model seasonal prediction (DSP) capability Advanced multi-model ensemble Demonstrated that O-A and L-A interactions, with high-frequency noise and low-frequency climate change, play important roles to enhance predictability Developed innovative modeling, data analysis and information theory-based strategies for understanding predictability and improving prediction http: //www. iges. org

COLA Contributions to CDEP n Current ¨ CFS experiments n n n n ¨ COLA Contributions to CDEP n Current ¨ CFS experiments n n n n ¨ 10 COLA scientists, 2 Ph. D students and 1 summer intern active CFS users Diagnose/model initial tendency errors in GFS/CFS (Del. Sole CTB project) Interactive Ensemble version (noise control & predictability) Potential predictability of intraseasonal variability Coupled initialization (nudging, anomaly init. ) Pacemaker: ENSO & ENSO-monsoon relationship Stratospheric simulation (imposed QBO) Bias, bias correction & skill in Atlantic, Pacific Multi-model experiments n CCSM proof-of-concept Jan ICs 1982 -2000 Jim Kinter http: //www. iges. org

COLA Contributions to CTB n Planned ¨ Multi-model R 2 O n n n COLA Contributions to CTB n Planned ¨ Multi-model R 2 O n n n ¨ O 2 R - support for CFS and other models n Jim Kinter CCSM transition to operations (CTB proposal) GFDL CM 2. 1 transition to operations (collaboration with GFDL) GMAO forecast diagnosis (R 2 O in discussion) Initial focus on land surface models (tentative) http: //www. iges. org

Joint CTB-COLA Seminar Series • CFS as a Prediction System and Research Tool Initially Joint CTB-COLA Seminar Series • CFS as a Prediction System and Research Tool Initially being established by NCEP and COLA q Will expand to include the broader climate community q 12 scheduled through Feb’ 08 (6 at COLA, 6 at NCEP) q Seminars at NCEP will be coordinated with CTB “Test and Evaluation Team” meetings • Future Foci: q Multi-Model Ensembles q Climate forecast product improvements q

Agenda n n Introductions and background Review of recent progress (5 min each) ¨ Agenda n n Introductions and background Review of recent progress (5 min each) ¨ ¨ ¨ n Climate Diagnostics ARC (ESRL/PSD; formerly CDC) COAPS (Florida State U) COLA CSES ARC (U Washington) ECPC (Scripps/U California San Diego) Affiliated centers (IRI, GFDL, GMAO, NCEP) Next steps to take as a group contributing to the CTB ¨ the reanalysis and attribution project of CDEP ¨ other program elements in the NOAA Climate Program ¨ Balance among these three (Ropelewski) ¨ n any other items requiring discussion

Applying the “Funnel” to the Transition Process 1 R&D Community 1. Large “volume” of Applying the “Funnel” to the Transition Process 1 R&D Community 1. Large “volume” of R&D, funded through AOs, Agency Labs… 2 NCEP is uniquely positioned to provide an operational infrastructure for the transition processes R 2 O O 2 R N C E P R 2 O 3 C T B 2. Smaller set of R&D products suitable for operations. 3. Systematic transition steps Research-to-Operations (R 2 O). EMC CFS OPERATIONS 4 O 2 A User Community C P C Deliver skill-optimized forecast products founded on CTB-based innovation and& customer feedback; Bring in customer requests 4. Systematic transition steps Operations-to-Applications (O 2 A). 5. Delivery of products to the diverse community and customer feedback 5 CTB role: facilitate transitions for the CPC specific product range (6 -10 day, week 2, monthly, seasonal)

Schematics in the Model Transition Process EMC and NCO have critical roles in the Schematics in the Model Transition Process EMC and NCO have critical roles in the transition from NOAA R&D to operations Observation System Effort Other Agencies & International Service Centers EMC NOAA Research NCO Field Offices EMC ASI, COLA, ARCS R&D Test Beds JCSDA CTB DTC JHT OPS Life cycle Support Operations Service Centers User Delivery Operations to Research Transition from Research to Operations Launch List – Model Implementation Process Concept of Operations Requirements Criteria Forecast benefits, Efficiency, IT Compatibility, Sustainability

NOAA ARCs Virtual Climate Modeling Center - A Proposal CD-ARC COAPS CTB COLA ECPC NOAA ARCs Virtual Climate Modeling Center - A Proposal CD-ARC COAPS CTB COLA ECPC UW-ARC NCEP NOAA Ops Need to define: 1. Science focus of each 2. What flows along lines 3. Why VO improves on status quo

VO definitions n Science foci ¨ CD-ARC n n ¨ n n n Regional VO definitions n Science foci ¨ CD-ARC n n ¨ n n n Regional modeling and reanalysis RSM (WRF? ? ) in CFS? California regional applications UW-ARC n n n Predictability MME with National models (CFS, CCSM, GFDL, GMAO) ECPC n ¨ Hybrid coordinate ocean model HYCOM in CFS? SE-US regional and agriculture sectoral applications COLA n ¨ Week 2 -to-seasonal, focused on drought and regional products CFS as a tool? Attribution and 100 -year reanalysis COAPS n ¨ Can be accomplished (case by case): • With little or no changes • With minor adjustments in focus • With new funds Hydrological forecasting VIC in CFS? Pacific NW regional applications Flowing along lines Data from commonly agreed experiments ¨ Support for models (including CFS) ¨ Individual collaborations (e. g. COLA-ECPC RSM/CFS for different regions) ¨ n What gets better? Responsiveness to NOAA mission ¨ Rate of improvement of NOAA climate forecasting ops and products ¨

Balance among … n n n CTB CDEP Reanalysis and Attribution NCPO Research: ACC, Balance among … n n n CTB CDEP Reanalysis and Attribution NCPO Research: ACC, CPPA, C 2 D 2, CVP, GCC NCPO Assessments & Services: RISA, SARP, TRACS NOAA: COA Goal, CPP Goal Acronyms: § § § § § CTB - Climate Test Bed CDEP - Climate Dynamics and Experimental Prediction ACC - Atmospheric Composition and Climate CPPA - Climate Prediction Program for the Americas C 2 D 2 - Climate Change Data & Detection RISA - Regional Integrated Science and Assessment SARP - Sectoral Applications Research Program TRACS - Transition of Research Applications to Climate Services COA - Climate Observations and Analyses CPP - Climate Predictions and Projections

gional Coupled Modeling of Eastern Pacific Clim Yuqing Wang International Pacific Research Center (IPRC) gional Coupled Modeling of Eastern Pacific Clim Yuqing Wang International Pacific Research Center (IPRC) and Department of Meteorology School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology University of Hawaii at Manoa, USA, Team Members: Shang-Ping Xie, Toru Miyama, Simon de Szoeke, R. Justin Small, Haiming Xu Collaborators: Roberto Mechoso (UCLA), Lord (NCEP) SOEST, University of Hawaii

IPRC Regional Ocean-Atmosphere Model (i. ROAM) on ES Atmosphere: IPRC-RAM 0. 5°× 0. 5°, IPRC Regional Ocean-Atmosphere Model (i. ROAM) on ES Atmosphere: IPRC-RAM 0. 5°× 0. 5°, L 30 GFDL Modular Ocean Model 2 0. 5°× 0. 5°, L 30 Forced by NCEP reanalysis Ocean spin-up 1990 – 1995 Interactive Coupled 1996 – 2003

Large-scale subsidence Warm and dry SW radiative LW radiative. Detrainmen Turbulent entrainment heating Evaporation Large-scale subsidence Warm and dry SW radiative LW radiative. Detrainmen Turbulent entrainment heating Evaporation cooling Intermittent drizzle Evaporative cooling Surface fluxes Turbulent eddies Transport Shallow cumu

Interannual Variability: Niño 3 SST Interannual Variability: Niño 3 SST

Cloud regime transition Cloud water & potential temperature 95 W Pressure (h. Pa) 12. Cloud regime transition Cloud water & potential temperature 95 W Pressure (h. Pa) 12. 5 S, Sept SST cooling 140 W 120 W Decoupled 100 W 80 W Coupled ABL Jan Mar Time May Jul Decoupled Sep Nov Coupled ABL

Agenda n n Introductions and background Review of recent progress (5 min each) ¨ Agenda n n Introductions and background Review of recent progress (5 min each) ¨ ¨ ¨ n Climate Diagnostics ARC (ESRL/PSD; formerly CDC) COAPS (Florida State U) COLA CSES ARC (U Washington) ECPC (Scripps/U California San Diego) Affiliated centers (IRI, GFDL, GMAO, NCEP) Next steps to take as a group contributing to the CTB ¨ the reanalysis and attribution project of CDEP ¨ other program elements in the NOAA Climate Program ¨ Balance among these three (Ropelewski) ¨ n any other items requiring discussion