Arab Population In Judea, Samaria & Gaza The Million Person Gap PCBS 2009 Population 4 Million PCBS: Palestine Central Bureau of Statistics Report prepared by: Fewer Births Net Negative Migration The American-Israel Demographic Research Group (AIDRG) Jerusalem Arab Population Double-Count Residents Living Abroad USA Research Team Bennett Zimmerman Roberta Seid, Ph. D. Michael Wise, Ph. D. Israel Research Team Study Result 2009 Population 2. 8 Million Bennett Zimmerman & Roberta Seid, Ph. D. Copyright 2009 All Rights Reserved Yoram Ettinger Brig. Gen (Ret. ) David Shahaf Prof. Ezra Sohar Dr. David Passig Avraham Shvout Yakov Faitelson
Israeli and Arab Population Data Judea, Samaria and Gaza (1996 & 2007) Millions of People 3. 8 MN 4. 0 • PCBS 2007 population total for Judea & Samaria and Gaza was 3. 8 million, 90% above the ICBS 1996 figure of 2. 1 million. 3. 0 2. 0 The two central bureaus of statistics cannot be accurate since… 2. 1 MN 1. 0 1996 Israel Central Bureau of Statistics (ICBS) 2007 • Such growth would indicate a compound annual growth rate of 5. 5% per annum, almost twice as high as the leading countries in the world, such as Afghanistan, Sierra Leon, Somalia, Niger and Eritrea. Palestine Central Bureau of Statistics (PCBS) Source: ICBS, Final Assessments of Population in Judea, Samaria & Gaza, 1996, Julia Zemel, December 22, 1997; Palestine Central Bureau of Statistics, Demographic Indicators of the Palestinian Territory, 1997 - 2015
Millions of People 6. 0 5. 0 Arab Population in Judea&Samaria and Gaza 1997 PCBS Census and Projection (1997 - 2015) • The December 1997 census is the basis for the current PCBS data. 4. 0 • 1997 PCBS: 2. 78 Million 3. 0 • 2009 PCBS: 4 Million 2. 0 • PCBS assumption: 3. 1% annual population growth rate. 1. 0 ‘ 97 2000 2007 2010 2015 Source: Palestine Central Bureau of Statistics, Demographic Indicators of the Palestinian Territory, 1997 - 2015 When 2007 PCBS population numbers (3. 8 million) is combined with Israeli Arab population (1. 4 million), the number of Arabs is now – supposedly - almost equal to the number of Jews west of the Jordan River. Given this rapid Arab growth, Israeli Jews would rapidly – supposedly - become a minority.
Arab Population In Judea, Samaria & Gaza The Million Person Gap Methodology Population measurement requires accurate recording and verification of: Beginning Base Population + Births - Deaths + Immigration - Emigration = Ending Base Population Study investigated the 1997 PCBS numbers, factor by factor, against data released each year by other PA and Israeli governmental agencies.
Examination of the base population data (1997 PCBS Census) Millions of People B efore C ensus Era 4. 0 2. 0 December 1996 ICBS Report Residents Abroad Additional Increase Total excess over ICBS 2. 27 MN 1. 0 0 Jerusalem Arabs 113 K 648 K 2. 111 MN Half-Year Growth 325 K 2. 78 MN 24 K 210 K 3. 0 December 1996 PA Health Ministry June 1997 PCBS Census A 30% inflation is documented in the 1997 census, which is the Palestinian base population data. 3%-5% was the ICBS-PCBS gap until the 1997 census. ICBS’ accuracy is validated, when examined against Palestinian agencies.
Palestine Central Bureau of Statistics Census Inclusion of Residents Living Abroad “We counted 325, 000 people living outside of the Palestinian lands for more than one year, who carry Palestinian ID cards and can return at any time. This number is a minimum, and is not precise because we could not contact all the families living abroad. ” Hassan Abu Libdah Head of PCBS News Conference held at Al-Bireh “The First Results of the Census” February 26, 1998 According to internationally accepted demographic standards, overseas residents who are abroad for over a year are not counted demographically. Israel abides by such standards; the PCBS does not.
Palestine Central Bureau of Statistics Census Inclusion of Residents Living Abroad http: //www. pcbs. org/phc_97/phc_covr. aspx Census Coverage A comprehensive population enumeration always depends on the essence and the nature of the census. In general, population censuses cover all persons residing within the limits of a certain country, at a specific time. A population census is based on the following: 1. De-facto Approach: Based on the enumeration of individuals according to their existence in the area of enumeration at census moment, regardless of their usual place of residence. 2. De-jure Approach: Based on the enumeration of individuals according to their usual place of residence, regardless of their presence at the census moment. For the first ever Palestinian census, the de-facto approach was adopted with some exceptions. The census count included the following categories: A – The Categories underwent complete data collection. 1. All persons present in the Palestinian territories on the census reference date, irrespective of nationality, purpose of stay and place of residence in the Palestinian territories. 2. All temporarily living abroad (for one year prior to the night of the reference date) and who have a usual place of residence in the Palestinian territories. Those persons are enumerated as parts of their households. 3. All Palestinians studying abroad irrespective of the study period and the period of stay abroad along with all Palestinian detainees in the Israeli jails regardless of the detention period. B – Palestinian abroad: Categories underwent data collection on their numbers and sex only This category includes Palestinians who live abroad for more than one year and who have a usual place of residence in the Palestinian territories and have identity cards (except for students and detainees enumerated in the previous category) irrespective of the purpose of stay abroad.
Palestine Central Bureau of Statistics, 2007 Census Coverage (per PCBS website) • “The PHC-2007 has been conducted on the basis of de-facto, taking into consideration minor local circumstances. ” • “This approach is identical to the implementation of PHC-1997. ”
PA Central Election Commission (CEC) Millions of People Eligible Adult (18 year old and older) Documentation 2. 5 October 2004 & January 2005 Voting Reports 2. 0 “Adults expected to be 18 and above by 2004” 1. 85 MN 1. 5 13% Abroad 1. 3 MN 1. 3 M 1. 0 87% Resident 0. 5 0 CEC October 2004 Voting Report ICBS 1996 • 1. 3 MN Eligible Voters + 8 Years Resident in Territories Less deaths and emigration • PCBS Forecast (2004) 200 K Eligible Voters Abroad The October 2004 CEC Voting Report, with specific information on 1. 3 million adults living in the Territories, undermines the original 1997 PA Projection and confirms that the 1997 Census Base included Palestinians living abroad. The residential base measured by the ICBS in the mid-1990 s produces an exact match with the 1. 3 million residents found on current CEC voter rolls.
Births/Year PCBS Birth Numbers vs. Births documented by PA Ministry of Health PCBS Thousands of Births/Year PA Ministry of Health 160 120 80 40 0 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 A 40, 000 annual gap between PCBS births and PA Ministry of Health recorded births. Documentation covers village mid-wives and clinics. Home deliveries: around 5% only. Documentation is essential for daily movement, for using international passages (800, 000 annual exits/entries), for UNRWA child allowances, for access to Israel (work, education, business, health, BG Airport, recreation, visits).
Births/Year Births documented by PA Ministry of Health confirmed by PA Ministry of Education Records Thousands of Births/Year 160 PA Ministry Of Education 1 st Grade Students 6 Years Later = PCBS numbers = PA Ministry of Health documentation 120 80 2003 2004 1997 1998 40 0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 About 100% of 6 year old children register to first grade, according to the World Bank, European and Israeli studies. A high dropout rate starts at 3 rd grade. PA Ministry of Health’s documentation of births is compatible with PA Ministry of Education’s documentation of first graders registration (6 years later). Both are well below PCBS numbers. Arab fertility decline in Judea & Samaria: Annual births stabilization between 1995 and 2008.
Migration/Year PCBS 1997 Net-Immigration Assumption Net Entries(Exits) In Thousands/Year 160 120 80 40 0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 PCBS population numbers included an assumption of 45, 000 net immigration annually, beginning 2001 until 2015. The eruption of Intifadah II in Sept. 2000 has precluded net immigration, but Israel’s demographic establishment never examined the PCBS and was unaware of its assumptions.
Migration/Year Net Entries (Exits) In Thousands/Year 160 PCBS 1997 Net-Immigration Assumption VS Actual Israel Border Net-Emigration Data 120 = PCBS 1997 Projection 80 40 = Actual Israel Border Data Post Oslo 0 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 The PCBS 1997 assumption of mass immigration into Judea, Samaria and Gaza: 45, 000 annually since 2001! Border data showed net emigration of 10 -20, 000 persons each year since 1997: 10, 000 - 2004, 16, 000 – 2005, 25, 000 – 2006, 25, 000 – 2007, 28, 000 - 2008. Since 1950, only 6 years featured net-immigration. Thus, the PCBS included – since 2001 - 60 -70, 000 persons each year that were not present.
Migration to Israel’s Green Line Legal migrants only – Double Count 1993 - 2003 From 1993 – 2003, over 150, 000 residents of Judea & Samaria and Gaza received Israeli IDs under family reunification programs (105, 000 since 1997). They are doubly-counted (as “Green Line” Arabs and as West Bankers. This phenomenon was stopped by a 2003 amendment to the Citizenship Law (Source: November 2003 Population Authority, Israel Ministry of Interior Report. )
Study Results Year by Year Detail Population models should be transparent with clearly defined starting, intermediate and ending points, so that researchers can assess the data, factor by factor. Many current estimates use information released by the PCBS to build population forecasts.
Study Results: 2004 -2008 PCBS’ 2. 5 million: 66% “inflation” PCBS’ 4 million: 1. 2 million gap Population models should be transparent with clearly defined starting, intermediate and ending points, so that researchers can assess the data, factor by factor. Many current estimates use – without scrutiny - information released by the PCBS to build population forecasts.
Errors in PCBS Projection The Million Person Gap (By Mid-Year 2004) Millions of People 4. 0 Deaths PA MOH Births 2. 5 2. 0 Birth Alterations Difference: Immigration & Emigration Error Difference: 310 K Difference: 105 K Jerusalem Arabs Difference: 210 K Residents Living Abroad 3. 0 Difference: 238 K Migration to Israel 3. 5 Difference: 33 K Difference: 325 K Jump Over ICBS Difference: 113 K 70 K } PCBS Numbers: 3. 83 Million Total 2. 42 Million J&S 1. 41 Million Gaza “The 1. 34 Million Person Gap” AIDRG Findings: 2. 49 Million Total 1. 41 Million J&S 1. 08 Million Gaza
Population Breakdown Israel, Judea, Samaria and Gaza (2009) Israeli Arabs West Bank Arabs Israeli Arabs Jewish Affiliated Jews Israel Gaza Arabs Jews Israel & J&S 81% Jewish 4: 1 Jewish/Arab Ratio West Bank Arabs Israeli Arabs Jews Israel J&S and Gaza 59% Jewish 67% Jewish 2: 1 Jewish/Arab Ratio Since the 1960 s 3: 2 Jewish/Arab Ratio
Judea & Samaria Trend of Population Growth (1950 -2008) Annual Population Growth Rates Israeli Administration ’ 67 -92 Pre-Fall Surge: Health Improvements Infant mortality declines • Life expectancy increases Net-emigration decreases 4. 0% 3. 0% Jordanian Period 1950 -1967 2. 0% 1992 -2008 -- Population Growth rate 1. 8% -- Declining Birthrate --High Emigration Family Planning Low population Growth rate 0. 9% High fertility rate High infant mortality rate High Net-Emigration ---Teen pregnancy declines --Record High Median Wedding Age --Expanded Education --Record divorce rate --From rural to poor urban 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2008 As evidenced by global precedents of integration between Western World and Third World societies, an initial significant growth is a prelude to a substantial decline. Growth rates in J&S are experiencing the normal stages of population development. Growth rates for J&S are approaching levels of a developed Western society and trend toward Israeli Jews growth rates.
Arab Population In the West Bank & Gaza The Million Person Gap Contact Information In USA: Mr. Bennett Zimmerman Ph: 310 -617 -4180 E-mail: ben@aidrg. com Arab Population in the West Bank and Gaza: The Million Person Gap was presented at the January 2006 Herzliya Conference. The Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies published the Study in February 2006. The original study can be found at www. aidrg. com
Total Fertility Rates (TFR) Gap “Green Line” Jews and Moslems 1960 – 2008 Total Fertility Rate Births/Woman 10 9. 22 9. 23 8. 47 8 Jews Moslems 7. 25 6 5. 54 4. 70 4 3. 39 3. 36 3. 28 3. 00 2. 80 2. 79 4. 67 2. 62 4. 36 2. 71 2. 8 3. 5 2 0 1960/ 1964 Source: Israel Central Bureau of Statistics 1965/ 1969 1970/ 1974 1975/ 1979 1980/ 1984 1985/ 1989 1990/ 1994 1995/ 1999 2004 2008 Forecasts for Israel apply past high fertility rates to future forecast, despite long-term decline in Israel Arab fertility. Fertility gap plunged from 6 births per woman to 0. 7. 2008 – Arab fertility rate declines to 3. 5 births per woman; Jewish fertility rate grows to 2. 8.
Total Fertility Rates (TFR) Gap “Green Line” Jews and Arabs 2000 - 2008 Total Fertility Rate Births/Woman 5 Jews 4. 40 4 4. 22 4. 17 Arabs 4. 00 3 3. 5 2. 66 2. 64 2. 73 2. 71 2. 8 2 1 0 2007 Israeli Jewish Fertility rates, the highest in the industrialized world, have stabilized and even started to rise across the board in all sectors (Orthodox, secular, and Olim from USSR). After plateauing from 1985 – 2000, Israeli Arab fertility rates have been steadily falling. 2000 2002 2003 2004 2007 – 3. 5 Arab TFR and 2. 8 Jewish TFR. From a 6 children gap Arab-Jewish TFR gap in the 1960 s to 0. 7 gap in 2008.
Demographic Momentum in the “Green Line” Jews Arabs Jewish Births vs. Arab Births 112 1995 - 2009 109. 2 Thousands of births 103. 6 100 91. 3 88. 3 80 95. 6 92. 6 95. 2 121 105. 2 104. 4 98. 6 80. 4 60 40 36. 5 36. 2 38. 8 39. 4 40. 8 41. 4 40. 9 38. 8 39 39 39 20 0 1995 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Source: Israel Central Bureau of Statistics Since 1995 (80, 400) annual Jewish births have increased by 50% (121, 000 in 2009), while Arab births have stabilized at 39, 500. Jewish births accounted to 69% in 1995, 74% in 2007 and 75. 5% in 2009, trending upward. 2006 2007 2009
“Gallup” Survey on Ideal Family Size Convergence in Fertility Intentions Children per Family 8 What is the ideal number of children in a family? 6 5. 26 4. 52 4 3. 88 3. 68 3. 59 3. 85 3. 52 5. 07 4. 55 4. 40 4. 17 3. 73 0 Israel Jews Israel Arabs 15 -19 20 -29 30 -49 50+ Secular Orthodox 2 Traditional 3. 06 West Bank Arabs Source: Gallup News Service, “Attitudes Toward Family Size Among Palestinians and Israelis”, Lydia Saad, March 17 2006 Desired family size is now the same for Israeli Jews and Israeli Arabs Young West Bank Arabs desire a family size only one-half a child higher than young Israelis
“Gallup” Survey on Ideal Family Size Convergence in Fertility Intentions “Gallup” Comments “There is not a large difference [in fertility intentions] in a region where fertility could be a potent political tool. . . The possibility that the once burgeoning Palestinian Arab population in Israel, the West Bank, and the Gaza Strip will eventually be the majority in that region has been widely accepted as a looming threat to Israel. . . However the assumption that Palestinians will eventually out-number the Jewish population in the region has come under recent criticism. “The recent Gallup data is instructive because there is clearly an element of personal choice in having children, and thus Gallup finds strong evidence that people’s preferred family size has a strong bearing on actual fertility rates. Gallup has been measuring American’s notion of ideal number of children since 1936, the trend lines for preferred number of children and the U. S. are quite parallel. “Gallup finds no difference in preferred number of children by age in Israel, but does among [younger] Palestinians. -- Lydia Saad, “Attitudes Toward Family Size Among Palestinians and Israelis”, Gallup News Service, March 17 2006
Fertility Assumptions in ICBS Forecast for Israel: Jews Israel’s Official Forecast Total Fertility Rates (2000 - 2025) 4. 00 3. 50 3. 00 2. 50 2000 - 05 High Scenario Medium Scenario 2. 1 2. 00 2. 6 2. 4 2. 6 Low Scenario 2021 - 25 The ICBS assumed Jewish fertility rates (births expected per woman) would decrease from 2. 6 in 2000 to 2. 4 in 2025. Net Immigration was expected to drop from 10, 000/year to 7, 000/year in the high case and 4, 000/year to -2, 000 emigration in the low case
Actual Fertility vs. Assumptions in ICBS Forecast for Israel: Jews (2000 - 2007) Total Fertility Rates 4. 00 Actuals 2000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2. 66 2. 64 2. 73 2. 71 2. 77 2. 8 3. 50 3. 00 2. 50 2. 6 2. 4 2. 1 2. 00 2000 - 05 2021 - 25 Actual fertility rates for the Jewish sector were higher - annually - than the highest rates Considered by the ICBS in its forecast.
Fertility Assumptions in ICBS Forecast for Israel: Israel Moslems Israel’s Official Forecast Total Fertility Rates 4. 7 (2000 - 2025) 4. 7 High Case Scenario 3. 8 Medium Case Scenario 2. 6 Low Case Scenario 4. 50 4. 00 3. 50 3. 00 2. 50 2. 00 2000 - 05 2021 - 25 The ICBS assumed Moslem fertility rates (births expected per woman) would remain stable at 4. 7 in the high case scenario and gradually drop to 2. 6 in the low case scenario No immigration or emigration scenarios were considered for the sector
Actuals vs. Assumptions in ICBS Forecast for Israel: Israel Moslems (2000 - 2004) Total Fertility Rates 4. 7 4. 50 Moslem Actuals 4. 00 3. 8 3. 50 Total Arab 3. 00 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Moslems 1, 090 83% 4. 74 4. 58 4. 50 4. 36 Christians 116 9% 2. 55 2. 29 2. 31 2. 13 Druze 112 8% 3. 07 2. 77 2. 85 2. 66 Total Arab 1, 318 4. 40 4. 22 4. 17 4. 02 3. 9 3. 6 3. 5 2. 6 2. 50 2. 00 2000 - 05 2021 - 25 Actual fertility rates for Moslems (especially) and for Arabs were decreasing 20 years faster than ICBS projections.
West Bank & Gaza Education Sector Analysis The World Bank, September 7, 2006 http: //siteresources. worldbank. org/INTWESTBANKGAZA/Resources/Education. Sector. Analysis. Sept 06. pdf q The enrollment rate for grade 1 is almost 100%. q PCBS projected a 24% increase in age 6 during 1999 -2005 (almost 4% population growth rate expected). q Enrollment to 1 grade decreased by 8% (page 8). q 32% gap cause: fertility decline and emigration increase. q Higher education enrollment doubled during last decade. 44% of 18 -21 age group were in full-time education in 2004. Similar enrolment by refugees and non-refugees. q 22% of 25 -29 year old women have post-primary education, compared with 10% among 45 -49 year old women.
q UNESCO’s Director General, May 22, 2007: “an abrupt slowdown in the rate of growth. . . also in many countries where women have only limited access to education and employment. . . There is not the slightest reason to assume that the decline in fertility will miraculously stop just at replacement level (2. 1 births per woman). . . ” q UN Population Division: Sharp decline in Muslim fertility rates – except Yemen and Afghanistan – is mostly responsible for a 25% reduction in population projections. q Dr. Nicholas Eberstadt, American Enterprise Institute, Washington, DC: “[AIDRG] caught the demographic profession asleep at the switch.
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