APPLICATIONS OF STATEWIDE TRAVEL FORECASTING MODEL Eric Songer

APPLICATIONS OF STATEWIDE TRAVEL FORECASTING MODEL Eric Songer URS Corporation Michael Doherty URS Corporation James Fennessy Associates

Presentation Outline § Turnpike State Model § Overview § Validation Results § Applications § Heartland Forecast § Grid Analysis § Reverse Engineering § Questions

Turnpike State Model § GIS Database § Built from scratch to ensure consistency among all components § Simplified travel demand model structure with integrated land use model § Two way GIS to TRANPLAN interface § Landuse allocation interface capability § Produces vehicle forecasts (AADT)

Model Network § Built from GDT/ Tele. Atlas network, FDOT RCI § 2004 base network § 500, 000 arcs § 124, 500 links § 2015 network § Florida DOT work plan: 2, 000 additional links § Includes 11, 800 FDOT RCI traffic count stations

Zone System § Automatically generated from network § Total of 29, 395 zones § 4, 837 internal § 37 external § 23, 086 for nondevelopable areas (e. g. lakes)

Model Validation Matrix-estimated trip lengths are very close to NHTS Florida distribution Model matches the 11, 800 counts very closely, in part due to substantial network data cleaning effort

Summary and Conclusions § FL TSM v. 1. 0 completed in 2006 § Use of GIS database significantly facilitates model development and maintenance efforts § Simplified initial travel demand modeling approach supports focus on critical data quality and maintenance issues § Having reliable network data supports incremental enhancements of the travel demand models over time for toll forecasting analysis

Heartland Example § Evaluated both East-West and North-South Corridors § Automated alignment based on avoidance § Smoothed to engineering curves § Database updated § Performed toll forecasting analysis § Performed “reversed engineering” analysis

Heartland Alignments

Heartland Analysis § East – West § 2 alternatives § Not moving forward at this time § North – South § 2 alternatives § Corridor identified for review § North of SR 60

Heartland Project – Reverse Engineering § Calculate Number of trips necessary to generate revenue necessary to bond toll facility § Use Matrix Estimation to generate trip table necessary to satisfy the necessary volume § Calculate additional needed socio-economic and employment per zone § Use GIS to display population and employment change

TSM Application – Grid Analysis § 2035 Landuse projections § 2015 Network § GIS database available in 5 year increments

Nine New Corridors

What is Grid Analysis § One Mile Grid § Entire State § Cut-line analysis § Sum of Volume, Capacity § Calculates §V/C §Lane by facility type

Grid Analysis §Shows where supply is not meeting demand §Pattern helps define corridors §V/C §Red > 1 §Orange > 0. 85 §Green > 0. 65 §Grey >. 5

Grid Analysis Results 2035 land use with 2015 network 2035 V/C >. 85

Grid Analysis & Corridors

Orange – Duval AADT (millions) 35. 2 Capacity (millions) 50. 5 Volume / Capacity 0. 70 New Capacity (Lane miles) Limited Access 9 Primary Arterials 27 Secondary Arterials 40 Collectors 70 Total 146

State V/C Results 2035 land use with 2015 network

Summary and Conclusions § TSM has complemented other tools available to Florida’s Turnpike Enterprise for toll forecasting analysis applications § Future enhancements include: § Toll mode choice model § Truck volume forecasting § Continuing TSM database maintenance and update

Questions?