APPLICATION OF ENERGY STATISTICS ENERGY EFFICIENCY INDICATORS

APPLICATION OF ENERGY STATISTICS ENERGY EFFICIENCY INDICATORS & GREENHOUSE GAS INVENTORIES UN Energy Statistics Workshop Beijing, China Sept. , 201 Pierre Boileau Head, non-OECD Country Energy Statistics Division © OECD/IEA 2010

Why such a high interest in efficiency n Saving energy in all sectors: l Residential l Transports l Industry l Services l Electricity generation n Increasing exports - reducing imports n Increasing domestic (and global) energy security n Strengthening RD&D n Creating jobs n Reducing green house gas (mainly CO 2) emissions © OECD/IEA 2010

Gt EFFICIENCY’S ROLE IN CO 2 EMISSIONS ABATEMENT 42 Reference Scenario 40 World abatement by technology 2020 3. 8 Gt 38 OECD+ 36 34 13. 8 Gt 65% 57% 3. 8 Gt Other Major Economies 32 30 Other Countries 28 26 2007 2010 Efficiency 2030 13. 8 Gt 450 Scenario 2015 2020 2025 Renewables & biofuels Nuclear CCS 19% 13% 3% 23% 10% 2030 è More than 50% of the reduction of CO 2 emissions should come from energy efficiency © OECD/IEA 2010

Countries are adopting ambitious targets n China Reduce CO 2 intensity of the economy by 40 -45% between 2005 and 2020 n India Reduce CO 2 intensity of the economy by 20% between 2005 and 2020 n The European Union: the 20 -20 -20 programme by 2020 l Contribution of energy efficiency to reduce the energy consumption by 20% n Russia: Reduce the energy intensity of GDP of the Russian economy by countries meet their targets? 2007 levels. How to verify if 40% compared to the Identify priorities for energy efficiency policies Assess progresses and failures of policies © OECD/IEA 2010

Why Go Beyond Aggregate Energy Consumption Data? Basic energy statistics Example of Canada’s Residential Sector © OECD/IEA 2010

Why Go Beyond Aggregate Energy Consumption Data? Example of Canada’s Residential Sector © OECD/IEA 2010

Why Go Beyond Aggregate Energy Consumption Data? Example of Canada’s Residential Sector © OECD/IEA 2010

Why Go Beyond Aggregate Energy Consumption Data? Example of Canada’s Residential Sector © OECD/IEA 2010

Why Go Beyond Aggregate Energy Consumption Data? Example of Canada’s Residential Sector © OECD/IEA 2010

Why Go Beyond Aggregate Energy Consumption Data? Example of Canada’s Residential Sector © OECD/IEA 2010

What should be collected: Collecting any statistics has a cost. As a consequence, one should limit the collecting to what is necessary. But what is necessary? Census Modelling Data quality / timeliness Appliances Energy data Residential Industry End uses Process ISIC: 2, 3, or 4 digits Priorities depend on many elements: climate (heating vs. Commercial/public Monetary data cooling), structure of the economy (industry vs. services) size of the country (transport, domestic aviation), energy Fleet of vehicles mix (biomass), electrification rate, GDP/capita, … Socio-economic Surveys Transport Frequency © OECD/IEA 2010

Energy Balance No breakdown by end use: - heating - DHW - lighting - cooking - air conditioning - appliances OTHER SECTORS Residential Comm. & Pub. Services Agriculture/Forestry Fishing Non-specified What most countries collect on a regular basis is limited to aggregated levels No breakdown by end use and by function of buildings (hospitals, schools, hotels, offices, restaurants, etc. ) 67380 238 61076 12071 - - - 222197 53401 14230 188090 46162 - 17598 8895 - - - 222197 24293 12356 156840 5190 - 22302 3177 - - 10040 867 11931 12155 - 21175 - - - 7536 18 14286 - - - 3872 238 - - - 11532 988 5033 © OECD/IEA 2010

What indicators can be built from the energy balances Figure 4. Breakdown of Sectorial Final Consumption by Source in 1973 and 2004 Figure 1. TPES* in 1973 Figure 5. Electricity Generation by Fuel Figure 6. Electricity Consumption/GDP, TPES/GDP and Energy Production/TPES © OECD/IEA 2010

What data for what indicators TPES/GDP TPES/Production Electricity Cons. /Population Aggregated Indicators CO 2/GDP PPP Efficiency Elec. Prod. Cons. /ton cement Disaggregated Indicators The focus will be mainly limited to the data needed to build the disaggregated indicators Heating Cons. /sqm/DD Litre/100 km (stock) Dry process Process Efficiency Condensing boiler Litre/100 km (vintage) © OECD/IEA 2010

No answer to the following questions from the annual questionnaires n How much energy is consumed to produce a ton of cement, steel, etc? n How much energy is used for heating/cooling a square metre of floor in residential? n What is the average consumption of gasoline per passenger-km in a car? n What is the consumption of electricity in street lighting? The lack of detailed data on energy consumption was one of the starting points for the indicators programme © OECD/IEA 2010

PRODUCTION OF COMMODITIES © OECD/IEA 2010

Thermal Energy Requirement per tonne of Clinker by Country including Alternate Fuels © OECD/IEA 2010

Data can be used to estimate potential savings © OECD/IEA 2010

Diffusion, stocks and average consumption of selected appliances RESIDENTIAL % k. Wh/unit 6 10 © OECD/IEA 2010

Household energy use by end use © OECD/IEA 2010

Decomposition of changes in space heating per capita, 1990 -2006 © OECD/IEA 2010

End-Use Coverage Residential Space heating Water heating Cooking Lighting Appliances Services Total services Passenger Travel Car &light duty vehicles Motorcycles Buses Passenger rail Passenger ships Domestic planes Freight Transport Trucks Freight rail Domestic shipping Domestic air freight Manufacturing Food, beverages & tobacco Paper, pulp & printing Industrial chemicals Non-metallic minerals Primary metals Metal products & equipment Other Industry Agriculture, forestry &fishing Mining Construction Electricity, gas & water © OECD/IEA 2010

International Context for Greenhouse Gases Stabilisation of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere. § 1992: United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) at Rio de Janeiro conference § 1995 (1996): IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories Development of methodologies for gases not controlled by the Montreal Protocol. § 1997: Kyoto Protocol (entry into force 2005) Reduction of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions for the period 20082012 of about 5% compared to 1990. § 2000: Good Practice Guidance and Uncertainty Management in National Greenhouse Gas Inventories. § 2006: 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories. § 2008 -2012: End of the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol © OECD/IEA 2010

Share of energy in GHG emissions (Annex I countries) Source: UNFCCC Key point: Accounting for the largest share of global GHG emissions, energy emissions are predominantly CO 2. © OECD/IEA 2010

World CO 2 emissions by sector in 2009 Total emissions: 29. 0 Gt CO 2 Key point: Between 1971 and 2009, the combined share of electricity and heat generation and transport shifted from 1/2 to 2/3 of global emissions. © OECD/IEA 2010

World electricity generation by fuel TWh 25000 20000 Non emitting 15000 10000 5000 0 1971 1975 Coal/peat 1979 Oil 1983 1987 Gas 1991 1995 Nuclear 1999 Hydro 2003 2009 Other Key point: Although non- and low-emitting sources are growing, electricity generation is becoming more CO 2 -intensive as a result of coal use. © OECD/IEA 2010

Trend in CO 2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion Gt CO 2 Source: Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, US Key point: Since 1870, CO 2 emissions from fuel combustion have risen exponentially. © OECD/IEA 2010

IPCC methodologies w w IEA CO 2 estimates are calculated using the Revised 1996 IPCC Guidelines although the IPCC published new Guidelines in 2006. Kyoto Protocol is based on the Revised 1996 IPCC Guidelines Accuracy Feasibility Tier 1 w Simplest method w Activity data available to all countries Tier 2 w Country or technology-specific emission factor Tier 3 w More detailed or country-specific methods © OECD/IEA 2010

IPCC methodology: Tier 1 Basic computation for CO 2 emissions: w CO 2 emissions by product: Fuel Quantity x Emission Factor (with corrections for stored and unoxidised carbon) w Sum over all different products Can be done from two independent sets of data: Supply of fuels to the country Reference Approach Consumption by end-use sectors Sectoral Approach © OECD/IEA 2010

Note on international bunkers IPCC Guidelines: International aviation and international marine bunkers are not included in national totals. © OECD/IEA 2010

2009 World CO 2 emissions Residential only includes emissions from fuels actually combusted in households (hence its relatively small share), not electricity or heat consumption Other only includes industrial waste and non-renewable municipal waste (not biofuels) We show both the reference approach and sectoral approach emissions (the difference coming from statistical differences, and losses and transformation) We show emissions for main activity Bunker fuels are and autoproducer plants separately included in transport (we don’t have the required data to for the world total (but excluded for allocate autoproducers to their countries and regions) consuming sectors) © OECD/IEA 2010

Step 1: Estimating sectoral fuel consumption Revised 1996 Guidelines MODULE ENERGY SUBMODULE CO 2 FROM FUEL COMBUSTION (TIER I SECTORAL APPROACH) WORKSHEET STEP BY STEP CALCULATIONS SHEET MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES AND CONSTRUCTION STEP 1 Separate sheet filled out. STEPeach sector: for 3 STEP 2 A Manufacturing Industries and Construction B C Consumption Conversion Factor (TJ/unit) Consumption (TJ) C=(Ax. B) Crude Oil Natural Gas Liquids D E F Main activity producer electricity and heat Carbon Emission Unallocated autoproducers Content Other energy industries Factor (t C) (Gg C) (t C/TJ) Manufacturing industries and construction E=(Cx. D) F=(E x 10 -3) Transport of which: road Other sectors of which: residential Gasoline Jet Kerosene Other Kerosene Gas/Diesel Oil Units: Could be in natural units (e. g. 1000 tonnes) or in energy units (e. g. TJ) Residual Fuel Oil LPG © OECD/IEA 2010

Step 2: Converting to a common energy unit Revised 1996 Guidelines SELECTED NET CALORIFIC VALUES FROM THE 1996 SUBMODULE CO 2 FROM FUEL COMBUSTION (TIER I SECTORAL APPROACH) GLS MODULE ENERGY WORKSHEET STEP BY STEP CALCULATIONS Factors (TJ/103 tonnes) STEP 3 Refined petroleum products 44. 80 D Gasoline E F Jet kerosene 44. 59 Carbon Other kerosene 44. 75 Emission Content Shale oil 36. 00 Factor (t C) (Gg C) Gas/diesel oil 43. 33 (t C/TJ) Residual fuel oil 40. 19 E=(Cx. D) F=(E x 10 -3) LPG 47. 31 Ethane 47. 49 Naphtha 45. 01 Bitumen 40. 19 Lubricants 40. 19 Petroleum coke 31. 00 Refinery feedstocks 44. 80 Refinery gas 48. 15 Other oil products 40. 19 Other products Coal oils and tars 28. 00 derived from coking coals Oil shale 9. 40 SHEET MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES AND CONSTRUCTION STEP 1 STEP 2 A Manufacturing Industries and Construction B C Consumption Conversion Factor (TJ/unit) Consumption (TJ) C=(Ax. B) Crude Oil Natural Gas Liquids Gasoline Jet Kerosene Other Kerosene Gas/Diesel Oil Residual Fuel Oil LPG Country-specific NCVs for natural gas and coal are given explicitly in the Revised 1996 IPCC Guidelines © OECD/IEA 2010

Step 3: Multiplying by carbon emission factors Revised 1996 Guidelines MODULE ENERGY CARBON EMISSION FACTORS SUBMODULE CO 2 FROM FUEL COMBUSTION (TIER I SECTORAL APPROACH) (CEF) Fuel Carbon emission SHEET MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES AND CONSTRUCTION factor (t C/TJ) WORKSHEET STEP BY STEP CALCULATIONS LIQUID FOSSIL STEP 1 STEP 2 Primary fuels Crude oil A B 20. 0 C Orimulsion 22. 0 Manufacturing Consumption Conversion Consumption Natural gas liquids 17. 2 Industries and Factor (TJ) Secondary fuels/products Construction (TJ/unit) Gasoline 18. 9 Jet kerosene 19. 5 C=(Ax. B) Other kerosene 19. 6 Shale oil 20. 0 Crude Oil Gas/diesel oil 20. 2 Natural Gas Liquids Residual fuel oil 21. 1 LPG 17. 2 Gasoline Ethane 16. 8 Jet Kerosene Naphtha (20. 0) Bitumen 22. 0 Other Kerosene Lubricants (20. 0) Gas/Diesel Oil Petroleum coke 27. 5 Refinery feedstocks (20. 0) Residual Fuel Oil Refinery gas 18. 2 LPG Other oil (20. 0) STEP 3 D E F Carbon Emission Factor (t C/TJ) Carbon Content (t C) Carbon Content (Gg C) E=(Cx. D) F=(E x 10 -3) © OECD/IEA 2010

Step 4: Calculating carbon stored Revised 1996 Guidelines MODULE ENERGY SUBMODULE CO 2 FROM FUEL COMBUSTION (TIER I SECTORAL APPROACH) WORKSHEET 2 STEP BY STEP CALCULATIONS SHEET MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES AND CONSTRUCTION STEP 4 STEP 5 G Crude Oil Natural Gas Liquids Gasoline Jet Kerosene Other Kerosene Gas/Diesel Oil Residual Fuel Oil LPG I Fraction of Carbon Stored (Gg C) Net Carbon Emissions (Gg C) H=(Fx. G) Manufacturing Industries and Construction H I=(F-H) J STEP 6 K L Fraction of Actual CO 2 Carbon Default values: fraction of Carbon Emissions Oxidised Emissions stored carbon (Gg CO 2) (Gg C) Naphtha* L=(K x 0. 8 K=(Ix. J) Lubricants 0. 5 [44/12]) Bitumen 1. 0 Coal Oils and Tars 0. 75 Natural Gas* 0. 33 Gas/Diesel Oil* 0. 5 LPG* 0. 8 Ethane* 0. 8 *When used as feedstocks © OECD/IEA 2010

Step 5: Correcting for carbon unoxidised Revised 1996 Guidelines MODULE ENERGY SUBMODULE CO 2 FROM FUEL COMBUSTION (TIER I SECTORAL APPROACH) WORKSHEET 2 STEP BY STEP CALCULATIONS SHEET MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES AND CONSTRUCTION STEP 4 STEP 5 STEP 6 G Crude Oil Natural Gas Liquids Gasoline Jet Kerosene Other Kerosene Gas/Diesel Oil I J K L Fraction of Carbon Stored (Gg C) Net Carbon Emissions (Gg C) Fraction of Carbon Oxidised I=(F-H) Actual Carbon Emissions (Gg C) K=(Ix. J) Actual CO 2 Emissions (Gg CO 2) H=(Fx. G) Manufacturing Industries and Construction H Default values: fraction of carbon oxidised Coal 0. 98 Oil and oil products Gas 0. 995 Peat for elec. Generation L=(K x [44/12]) 0. 99 Residual Fuel Oil LPG © OECD/IEA 2010

Step 6: Converting to CO 2 emissions Revised 1996 Guidelines MODULE ENERGY SUBMODULE CO 2 FROM FUEL COMBUSTION (TIER I SECTORAL APPROACH) WORKSHEET 2 STEP BY STEP CALCULATIONS SHEET MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES AND CONSTRUCTION STEP 4 STEP 5 STEP 6 G I J K L Fraction of Carbon Stored (Gg C) Net Carbon Emissions (Gg C) Fraction of Carbon Oxidised I=(F-H) Actual Carbon Emissions (Gg C) K=(Ix. J) Actual CO 2 Emissions (Gg CO 2) H=(Fx. G) Manufacturing Industries and Construction H L=(K x [44/12]) Crude Oil Natural Gas Liquids Gasoline Jet Kerosene Multiply by 44/12 (the molecular weight ratio of CO 2 to C) Other Kerosene Gas/Diesel Oil Residual Fuel Oil LPG © OECD/IEA 2010

Differences between 1996 and 2006 Guidelines Simplified estimation methodology l l Emission factors: Rather than separate carbon and CO 2 – estimate CO 2 directly Oxidation factors: Rather than differentiate oxidation based on fuels since almost no information is available on this, assume 100% oxidation – simplifies and is more conservative. Also, the oxidation factors are now included directly in the EFs. Non-energy use: Rather than include all energy and then make assumptions on stored carbon, the activity data explicitly exclude the non-energy use of fuels. Account for emissions where and when they occur: New methodologies for CO 2 captured and stored, new methodologies for CO 2 in agricultural soils, forests © OECD/IEA 2010

Revised 1996 IPCC Guidelines: Sectoral Approach 2006 IPCC Guidelines: Sectoral Approach © OECD/IEA 2010

Step 1: Estimating sectoral fuel consumption 2006 Guidelines SECTOR ENERGY CATEGORY FUEL COMBUSTION ACTIVITIES CATEGORY CODE 1 A SHEET 1 OF 4 (CO 2, CH 4 AND N 2 O FROM FUEL COMBUSTION BY SOURCE CATEGORIES – TIER 1) Energy consumption A Consumption (Mass. Volume or Energy unit) Liquid fuels Crude Oil Orimulsion Natural Gas Liquids Motor Gasoline Aviation Gasoline Units: Could be in natural units (e. g. 1000 tonnes) or in energy units (e. g. TJ) CO 2 CH 4 (etc. ) Separate sheet filled out for each sector: Main activity electricity and heat production, Petroleum Refining, Manufacture of Solid Fuels and Other Energy Industries, Iron and Steel, Non-Ferrous Metals, Chemicals, Pulp/Paper/Print, Food Processing/Beverages/Tobacco, Non-Metallic Minerals, Transport Equipment, Machinery, Mining (excl. fuels)/Quarrying, Wood/Wood Products, Construction, Textile/Leather, Non-specified Industry, Commercial/Institutional, Residential, Agriculture/Forestry/Fishing/Fish Farms, Non-specified Stationary Jet Gasoline Jet Kerosene Other Kerosene © OECD/IEA 2010

Step 2: Converting to a common energy unit 2006 Guidelines SECTOR ENERGY Country-specific NCVs for natural gas ACTIVITIES CATEGORY FUEL COMBUSTION and coal are given explicitly in the CATEGORY IPCC 1 A Revised 1996 CODE Guidelines. The 2006 Guidelines. SHEET 1 OF 4 (CO 2, CH 4 AND N 2 O FROM FUEL COMBUSTION BY SOURCE CATEGORIES – give one default value with TIER 1) upper and lower limits. Energy consumption A CO 2 B C Conversion Factor (TJ/unit) CH 4 (etc. ) Consumption (TJ) C=A*B Liquid fuels SELECTED NET CALORIFIC VALUES FROM THE 2006 GLS Crude Oil Orimulsion Natural Gas Liquids Motor Gasoline Aviation Gasoline Jet Kerosene Other Kerosene Crude oil Orimulsion Natural Gas Liquids Motor Gasoline Aviation Gasoline Jet kerosene Other kerosene Net calorific value (TJ/Gg) 42. 3 27. 5 44. 2 44. 3 44. 1 43. 8 Lower 40. 1 27. 5 40. 9 42. 5 42. 0 42. 4 Upper 44. 8 28. 3 46. 9 44. 8 45. 0 45. 2 © OECD/IEA 2010

Step 3: Multiplying by CO 2 emission factors 2006 Guidelines SECTOR ENERGY CATEGORY FUEL COMBUSTION ACTIVITIES CATEGORY CODE 1 A SHEET 1 OF 4 (CO 2, CH 4 AND N 2 O FROM FUEL COMBUSTION BY SOURCE CATEGORIES – TIER 1) Energy consumption CO 2 CH 4 (etc. ) D DEFAULT EFFECTIVE CO 2 EMISSION FACTORS FROM THE 2006 GLS Crude Oil Crude oil Orimulsion Natural Gas Liquids Motor Gasoline Aviation Gasoline Jet kerosene Other kerosene Jet Kerosene Other Kerosene Default emission factor 73 300 77 000 64 200 69 300 70 000 71 500 71 900 CO 2 Emission Factor (kg CO 2/TJ) CO 2 Emissions (Gg CO 2) E=C*D/106 CO 2 Liquid fuels E Lower Upper 71 100 69 300 58 300 67 500 69 700 70 800 75 500 85 400 70 400 73 000 74 400 73 700 © OECD/IEA 2010

Some useful websites on energy efficiency n IEA Statistics - www. iea. org/stats/index. asp n Energy Efficiency Indicators - www. iea. org/topics/energyefficiencyindicators/ n Energy Efficiency Home Page - www. iea. org/topics/energyefficiency/ n CO 2 Emissions Data Overview www. iea. org/co 2 highlights/ Thank you © OECD/IEA 2010