Anthropogenic Global Warming Reality or Fiction Version 1

Anthropogenic Global Warming Reality or Fiction? Version 1. 1 06 Sep 08 Francis Massen Physics Lab, LCD and meteo. LCD Lycée Classique de Diekirch http: //meteo. lcd. lu francis. massen@education. lu AGW. . reality or fiction? August 2008

Index • • • Climate and weather Climate metrics Climate models Causes of climate change How good are the data and the models? IPCC and the so-called consensus The skeptics and their arguments Major scares, real or imagined? Cooling down? Conclusions AGW. . reality or fiction? 2

Climate and weather • • Weather = actual state of the atmosphere, chaotic changes Climate = mean state ( min. 30 years) of the atmosphere together with its statistical variations Extreme events are a “normal” feature of every climate Climate is always changing… it never is or was constant! AGW. . reality or fiction? 3

Pielke, Colorado University, 2008 The Earth’s climate system is highly nonlinear: inputs and outputs are not proportional, change is often episodic and abrupt, rather than slow and gradual, and multiple equilibria are the norm AGW. . reality or fiction? 4

The motor of the weather • • Sun = engine that drives weather/climate Uneven heating by the sun of the globe causes heat flow from hot to cold regions (through convection: air movements and ocean circulation, complicated by the rotation of the globe) AGW. . reality or fiction? 5

Climate change is caused by • • • Variable inclination of earth axis long-time Variable distance earth/sun Variable sun activity (TSI, UV and magnetic) Variable galactic cosmic rays _______________ Changes in land usage and land cover Changes in the composition of the atmosphere (natural, anthropogenic) short time AGW. . reality or fiction? 6

Climate metrics • • Global temperature (in °C) measured by surface weather stations, balloons and satellites (MSU, since 1978) Ocean heat content (in J) measured by ships, moores, …, floating buoys (Argo, since 2003) AGW. . reality or fiction? 7

Global temperature • • Not many good long-time measurements (instruments only since ~1750) Past temperatures must be infered from proxies (tree rings, isotope ratios in ice cores and sea-shells) Results often dubious and uncertain Meaningful? (no uniform temperature) AGW. . reality or fiction? 8

What was commonly assumed (IPCC SAR, 1995) AGW. . reality or fiction? 9

The Hockey Stick (MBH 98) IPCC SAR 2001 [1] No Medieval Warm Period ! No Little Ice Age ! AGW. . reality or fiction? 10

The Hockey Stick (MBH 98) [2] • • • Mann, Bradley, Hughes: temperature profile of middle age essentially derived from a couple of bristlecones Dubious statistics IPCC TAR 2001 icon, published many million times Demolished by Mc. Intire/Mc. Kitrick (2003) Embarrassment for the IPCC (not anymore in 4 AR, 2008) AGW. . reality or fiction? 11

The Hockey Stick (MBH 98) [3] • Ian Jolliffe, expert statistician, 2008: “It therefore seems crazy that the MBH hockey stick has been given such prominence and that a group of influential climate scientists have doggedly defended a piece of dubious statistics. “ AGW. . reality or fiction? 12

The Hockey Stick (MBH 98) [3] Loehle reconstruction, not using tree rings (2007): Medieval warm period (MWP) AGW. . reality or fiction? 13 Little Ice Age (LIA)

Divergence problem [1] • Recent tree rings derived temperatures are lower than measured ones! measured AGW. . reality or fiction? tree ring 14

Divergence problem [2] Wilson, GRL, 2007: No current tree ring (TR) based reconstruction of extratropical Northern Hemisphere (ENH) temperatures that extends into the 1990 s captures the full range of late 20 th century warming observed in the instrumental record Wilmking, 2008: This "divergence effect" seriously questions the validity of tree-ring based climate reconstructions AGW. . reality or fiction? 15

Recent temperature data sources • • Surface: GISTEMP (GISS, Nasa) [Hansen] NCDC (US) Hadley(GB) [Jones] Satellites: MSU = microwave sounding unit UHA (US) [Christy, Spencer] RSS (US) [Mears] AGW. . reality or fiction? 16

Surface temperatures heavily adjusted for UHI, instrument drift, … AGW. . reality or fiction? 17

One of many problems: land-based station dropout (NOAA: GHCN) favours urban stations (UHI problem) AGW. . reality or fiction? 18 [icecap]

Hadley 1850 to 2007 Similar warming rate very different CO 2 increase d. CO 2=+43 ppm d. CO 2=+17 ppm AGW. . reality or fiction? 19 [climate 4 you]

El Nino 1998 Last 40 years… See difference! AGW. . reality or fiction? [climate 4 you] No GW since 20 2001 !

Global temperature = bad metric? Prof. Roger Pielke, Sr University of Colorado, Boulder: Global temperature is not a correct metric for climate change. Ocean heat content is the metric to be used. AGW. . reality or fiction? 21

Barnett [Science, 2001] Observations (dubious? ) AGW. . reality or fiction? 22 Decreasing global temperatures

Willis [GRL, 2004] upper 750 m AGW. . reality or fiction? 23

Hansen [Science, 2005] The observed annual mean rate of ocean heat gain between 1993 and mid-2003 was 0. 86 +/- 0. 12 W/m 2 per year for the 93. 4% of the ocean that was analyzed. AGW. . reality or fiction? 24

Argo floater system (starting 2003) AGW. . reality or fiction? 25

Argo floaters in use AGW. . reality or fiction? 26

Argo results [Willis, JPL, 2008] Decreasing ocean heat content! AGW. . reality or fiction? 27

GHG and climate forcing • • • GHG’s (water vapour, CO 2, methane, …. ) absorp a portion of the outgoing long wave radiation and radiate it back to the surface Earth heats up until a new equilibrium (incoming radiation = outgoing radiation) is reached Without GHG’s, earth would be at -18°C instead at +15°C AGW. . reality or fiction? 28

GHG contribution to natural GH AGW. . reality or fiction? 29

Climate forcing F • • F = hypothetical increase in TOA irradiance caused by a change of [CO 2] relative to pre-industrial times (280 ppm) F = 5. 35*ln(actual_CO 2/reference_CO 2) (Arrhenius law, 5. 35 from [Myrhe, 1998]) • F = 3. 7 Wm-2 for CO 2 doubling F = 1. 7 Wm-2 today (280 → 385 ppm) The factor 5. 35 is derived from historical surface temperatures, and may be grossly overestimated! [Erren, 2002] TOA = Top Of Atmosphere AGW. . reality or fiction? 30

If the earth was a black body… • • • Stefan-Boltzmann: F = σT 4 σ=5. 67*10 -8 d. F/d. T = 4σT 3 and d. T =1/(4 σ)*d. F/T 3 With T = 15°C and d. F=3. 7 as previous gives d. T = 0. 68°C for a CO 2 doubling and d. T = 0. 31°C for today AGW. . reality or fiction? 31

Climate sensitivity λ (earth ≠ black body) • • d. T = change in global temperature caused by given change in forcing d. F = λ*d. T or λ = d. F/d. T [Wm-2 K-1] d. T = d. F/ λ without feedbacks d. T = d. F/ (λ-f 1 -f 2. . ) with feedbacks f > 0 positive feedback (e. g. water vapour) f < 0 negative feedback (e. g. cloud cover ) AGW. . reality or fiction? 32

The data [Spencer, 2008] Climate sensitivity d. T for doubling CO 2 (from 280 to 560 ppm): d. T = 3. 7/4. 5 = 0. 8 °C AGW. . reality or fiction? 33

The IPCC • • • IPCC = political organisation (UNEP, WMO) Evaluates scientific literature and research and issues AR’s (assessment reports): 1990: FAR 1995: SAR 2001: TAR 2007: 4 AR Authors often are their own reviewers With each AR comes a SPM (summary for policy makers) written by bureaucrats and political delegates (not scientists!) AR’s had to be changed to conform to the SPM published before the AR’s ! AGW. . reality or fiction? 34

IPCC = 2500 scientists? Most important reports = ~50 authors Mc Lean, 2008: “Prejudiced authors, prejudiced findings”: . . two of Hadley’s Centre’s contribution authors (Jones and Thorne) were among the reviewers of the chapter that they had themselves written… …the majority of scientists who are skeptical of a human influence significant enough to be damaging were unrepresented… AGW. . reality or fiction? 35

IPCC and climate models • • IPCC relies heavily on anthropogenic GHG emissions and climate models IPCC uses scenarios (which are not predictions [Trenberth, IPCC author]) IPCC scenarios emphasize role of CO 2 emissions, neglect LULC and solar influence (LULC = Land Use Land Change) SPM’s ignore the poor LOSU of many forcings (LOSU = Level Of Scientific Understanding) AGW. . reality or fiction? 36

IPCC 4 AR scenarios (2007) AGW. . reality or fiction? 37

( Change relative to pre-industrial 1750 situation) IPCC forcings (4 AR, 2007) LOSU = level of scientific understanding high low AGW. . reality or fiction? 38

Are the models reliable? [1] [Akasufo, 2007] hindcast by model observation Vast difference between reality and model! AGW. . reality or fiction? Akasufo: former director of the International Arctic Research Center 39

Are the models reliable? [2] [Freeman Dyson] Freeman Dyson: FRS, physics professor at Princeton University AGW. . reality or fiction? 40

IPCC critics [1 a] • Dr. Richard S. Lindzen, Alfred P. Sloan professor of meteorology at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology: The IPCC process is driven by politics rather than science. It uses summaries to misrepresent what scientists say. AGW. . reality or fiction? 41

IPCC critics [1 b] It uses language that means different things to scientists and laymen. It exploits public ignorance over quantitative matters. It exploits what scientists can agree on, while ignoring disagreements, to support the global warming agenda. And it exaggerates scientific accuracy and certainty and the authority of undistinguished scientists. AGW. . reality or fiction? 42

IPCC critics [1 c] The "most egregious" problem with the IPCC's forthcoming report, is that it is presented as a consensus that involves hundreds, perhaps thousands, of scientists. . . and none of them was asked if they agreed with anything in the report except for the one or two pages they worked on. AGW. . reality or fiction? 43

IPCC critics [2] • Prof. Roger Pielke Sr. University of Colorado in Boulder The IPCC is an oligarchy that is using its privileged position to advocate for a particular perspective on the role of humans within the climate system. • Oligarchy = form of government in which all power is vested in a few persons or in a dominant class or clique AGW. . reality or fiction? 44

IPCC critics [3] • House of Lords, “ The Economics of Climate Change”, 2006: It seems to us that there remains a risk that the IPCC has become a “knowledge monopoly” in some respects, unwilling to listen to those who do not pursue the consensus line. AGW. . reality or fiction? 45

Consequences of global warming: there remains no phenomen that is not caused or influenced by GW! A complete list of things caused by global warming Acne, agricultural land increase, Afghan poppies destroyed, Africa devastated, Africa in conflict, African aid threatened, African summer frost, aggressive weeds, air pressure changes, Alaska reshaped, Agulhas current moves, Alps melting, Amazon a desert, American dream end, amphibians breeding earlier (or not), anaphylactic reactions to bee stings, ancient forests dramatically changed, animals head for the hills, Antarctic grass flourishes, Antarctic ice grows, Antarctic ice shrinks, Antarctic sea life at risk, anxiety treatment, algal blooms, archaeological sites threatened, Arctic bogs melt, Arctic in bloom, Arctic ice free, Arctic ice melt faster, Arctic lakes disappear, Arctic tundra to burn, Arctic warming (not), Atlantic less salty, Atlantic more salty, atmospheric circulation modified, attack of the killer jellyfish, avalanches reduced, avalanches increased, Baghdad snow, Bahrain under water, bananas grow, barbarisation, beer shortage, beetle infestation, bet for $10, 000, better beer, big melt faster, billion dollar research projects, billion homeless, billions face risk, billions of deaths, bird distributions change, bird loss accelerating, bird visitors drop, birds confused, birds return early, birds driven north, … AGW. . reality or fiction? 46 [http: //www. numberwatch. co. uk/warmlist. htm]

Climate change research $$$ • • • USA: $37 billion US$ to climate change-related activities since 2001 EUROPE: 6 th Framework 2002 -2006: 2. 0 billion Euro 7 th Framework 2007 -20013: 9. 0 billion Euro plus additional funding of 3. 6 billion Euro AUSTRALIA, 2008: $2. 3 billion US$ over four years for climate research Lindzen: “The research and support for research depends on the alarm” AGW. . reality or fiction? 47

Dr. Gerd R. Weber Max Planck Institute, 1992 • “Heute werden auf eine Weise Forschungsgelder verteilt und Berichte geschrieben, dass sich daraus eine positive Rückkopplungsschleife bildet, die allen Beteiligten Gewinne abwirft. Die Wissenschaftler bekommen mehr Forschungsgelder, die Medien neue Empörungsgeschichten. . . , den Politikern erschliesst sich ihr Stimmenpotential. " Gerd R. Weber: Treibhauseffekt. Böttiger Verlags Gmb. H AGW. . reality or fiction? 48

The major scares, real or imagined? • • Melting of glaciers and polar ice Sea level rising Hurricanes on increase Drought on increase AGW. . reality or fiction? 49

Mont Blanc ice cap Vincent et al. , JGR, 2007: “The most striking features of these figures are the small thickness changes observed over the 20 th century. … thickness variations do not exceed ± 15 m. The average changes are +2. 6 m at Dôme du Goûter and -0. 3 m at Mont Blanc. Considering the uncertainty interval, i. e. , ± 5 m, it can be concluded that no significant thickness change is detectable over most of these areas” World Climate Report AGW. . reality or fiction? 50

Greenland ice NOAA: Arctic Report Card 2007 Surface mass balance ~constant. Other sources: +11 Gt/year Greenland's temperature record shows that the warmest year on record was 1941 while the warmest decades were the 1930 s and 1940 s AGW. . reality or fiction? 51

Arctic sea ice [1] -10 % [NOAA] AGW. . reality or fiction? 52

Arctic sea ice [2] • Polyakov (Uni. of Alaska, Fairbanks): Observations over the last 135 years show that the recent decrease is within the limits of natural variations since the 18 th century. The natural low frequency oscillation (LFO, 5080 years) related to fluctuations of thermohaline circulation has a strong impact on ice variability. AGW. . reality or fiction? 53

Antarctic: ice balance (from satellite) Wingham et al. , University College of London, 2003: ice balance = [27 +/- 29 Gt/y] AGW. . reality or fiction? 54

Global sea level [1] ~250 mm Gauges: 2. 4 mm/y Satellite: 2. 6 mm/y (Topex/Poseidon) [Jevreshava, JGR, 2006] AGW. . reality or fiction? 55

Global sea level [2] • Domingues et al, Nature, 2008: “…previously estimated rates for the 1990 s had a positive bias as a result of instrumental errors…” “…updated estimate of near-global mean sea-level rise: 1. 6 ± 0. 42 mm/year for 1950 to 2003” AGW. . reality or fiction? 56

Global sea level [3]: sea level change is not uniform! AGW. . reality or fiction? 57 [Accuweather]

Hurricane frequency increase? [1] Hurricane in the eastern Pacific (Englehart, GRL, 2008): trend is negative! AGW. . reality or fiction? 58

Hurricane frequency increase? [2] US landfall hurricanes (Wang & Lee, GRL, 2008): trend is negative! AGW. . reality or fiction? 59

Hurricane intensity increase? [3] [Swanson, GRL, 2007] Variable intensity, no trend! AGW. . reality or fiction? 60

Increasing Drought ? [1] NPP change 1982 -99 AGW. . reality or fiction? NPP = net primary productivity [kg. C/m 2] [Simmon, Nasa] 61

Increasing Drought ? [2] [Ollson, encyclopedia of earth] 1982 -99: NDVI increases…the Sahel is greening! AGW. . reality or fiction? NDVI = normalized difference vegetation index, measured by satellite 62

Outlook: cooling down? • • Several recent changes point to a future cooler, not warmer climate There has been no warming since at least 2001, despite rising atmospheric CO 2 Sun activity is unusal low, Aug 08 was the first month since 1913 without any sunspots Solar cycle 24 is late, and is predicted to be calm (idem for SC 25) AGW. . reality or fiction? 63

Cooling down? [temperature & CO 2] • Global temperature and CO 2 1970 – 2000 only period where d. CO 2 ~ d. T > 2000: CO 2 rising, temperature decreasing AGW. . reality or fiction? 64

Cooling down? [temperature & CO 2] AGW. . reality or fiction? 65 [icecap]

Cooling down? [temperature & water vapour] • Satellites show lower troposphere cooling; atmospheric water vapor trend is negative AGW. . reality or fiction? 66 [NOAA, 2008]

Cooling down? [permafrost] • Alaska Permafrost temperature remains constant! [Akasofu, 2008] AGW. . reality or fiction? 67

Cooling down? [sunspots] • Sunspot number and global temperature There have been more sunspots since the 1940 s than at any AGW. . reality or fiction? 68 other period (of same duration) in the past 1150 years [New Scientist, 2003]

Cooling down? [magnetic activity] • Sun activity increased dramatically over last century, but now is on decrease Electromagnetic flux [Motl, 2007] AGW. . reality or fiction? Cycle 23 69

Cooling down? [solar cycle length, 1] Longer solar cycle → cooler temperature AGW. . reality or fiction? 70 [Lassen, Danish Meteorological Institute]

Cooling down? [solar cycle length, 2] SC 22: 9 y 8 m SC 23: >12 y 4 m Will the very long cycle yield lower global temperatures? (SC 24 has still not started; Aug 08 first month since 1913 without sunspots) AGW. . reality or fiction? 71 [www. dxlc. com/solar/]

Papers announcing coming cooling or reduced warming [1] Zhen-Shan, L. and S. Xian. 2007. Multi-scale analysis of global temperature changes and trend of a drop in temperature in the next 20 years. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, 95, 115– 121. 2008. [cooling] Keenlyside, N. S. , M. Latif, J. Jungclaus, L. Kornblueh, and E. Roeckner: Advancing Decadal-Scale Climate Prediction in the North Atlantic Sector. Nature, 453, 84 -88. 2008. [reduced warming] Landscheidt, Th: New Little Ice Age instead of Global Warming? Schröter Institute 2004. [cooling] V. S. Bashkirtsev and G. P. Mashnich: Will We Face Global Warming in the Nearest Future? Institute of Solar–Terrestrial Physics, Siberian Division, Russian Academy of sciences. August 28, 2002 [cooling] Pyilai Ch, : Predicting Solar Cycles with a Dynamo Model. Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore. 2007. [weak cycle 24] AGW. . reality or fiction? 72

Papers announcing coming cooling or reduced warming [2] AGW. . reality or fiction? 73 [Dilley, 2008]

Conclusions • • • The past century warmed by ~0. 7°C. The contribution of AGW to this warming is probably much smaller than that given by the IPCC consensus. The influence of GHG’s, especially CO 2, is overstated, the natural variability (of the sun) is understated. Climate models are still unreliable and should not be trusted as a political decision aid. Climate and energy are separate problems: climate change scares should not be used to push a particular energy agenda! Future research and funding should be focused on energy problems; useless and costly global treaties like Kyoto should be avoided. AGW. . reality or fiction? 74

Anthropogenic Global Warming Reality or Fiction? Fiction: most of the recent warming is anthropogenic Reality: most of the recent warming is natural Thank you for your attention! AGW. . reality or fiction? 75