Analysis Modeling Simulation Joe Adamo Department Head

Analysis, Modeling & Simulation Joe Adamo Department Head - Operations Analysis Joyce Wheeler Manager – Operations Analysis This document does not contain technical data as defined in the International Traffic in Arms Regulations (22 CFR 120. 10) or the Export Arms Regulations (15 CFR 779. 1).

Agenda n Intro to Operations Analysis n What is Analysis, Modeling, and Simulation (AM&S)? n Case Studies n Summary n Questions & Discussion

Operations Analysis is the analytical arm of the Systems Engineering discipline. It is the discipline of applying advanced analytical techniques and processes to provide information for better decision making.

Who Does Operations Analysis? n Operations Analysts come from a variety of disciplines n n n n Aeronautical Engineering Mechanical Engineering Electrical Engineering Computer Science and Engineering Mathematics, Physics Operations Research Key Traits are Analytical Skills, Problem-Solving Capability, and Communication Skills Degree Masters 53% Ph. D 5% BS/BA 42% Approximately 600 Operations Analysts in Boeing IDS

What Do Operations Analysts Do? An Aircraft Example: n The Realm of Designers – Measures of Performance n n Range Speed Payload The Realm of Ops Analysts – Measures of Effectiveness n n Survivability Number of Targets Detected Lethality – Number of Targets Destroyed Number of Information Packets Sent/Received and Cost/Affordability Ops Analysts Work with the Design Team to Ensure the System Can Do It’s Intended Job

Tools and Methods n Commonly Used Techniques § Modeling and Simulation § Statistical methods § Linear and nonlinear programming § Econometric methods § Queuing and other stochastic- § Decision analysis process models n Mathematical Modeling - Nearly all of these techniques involve the construction of a model that attempts to capture the behavior of the system being studied

Analysis Modeling and Simulation Defined n Analysis: Evaluating and assessing system performance, processes, and relationships to determine measures of importance such as effectiveness, performance, and reliability; typically using the results from models and simulations n Modeling: Creating representations (models) of systems including their processes, behaviors, and interactions n Simulation: Using (executing) models over time to investigate system performance

Model vs. Simulation § Model - Representation of the physical entity Example: Static Model of the Earth § Simulation - Execution of model over time Example: Simulating the Earth’s Rotation

Modeling and Simulation § Allows the analyst to conduct trade studies and answer “What if? ” questions § Can assign values to the different model components and clarify the relationships among them § Values can be altered to examine what may happen to the system under different circumstances. § Inputs are modified and the model re-run to identify the best of levels for variables or combinations of design features

Spectrum of Models and Simulations Interactive Digital Simulation Voice of the Customer Decision Analysis Constructive Simulation IWARS Requirements Definition Customer Involvement Management Understanding Virtual Environment Quick Tools Customer-approved simulations Workload Assessment Selected Controls/ Displays Pilot in the Loop

Benefits of AM&S 85% of Cost Committed 15% Cost Expended 100 Percent 90 Percent of Life-Cycle Cost Committed 85 80 70 95 70 60 50 40 30 20 30 Brief Window of Opportunity 10 5 0 Concept Refinemt. Tech Develop. System Develop and Demonstration Percent of Program Cost Expended Production and Operations and Support Product Life Cycle Phases Early Emphasis on Analysis Prevents Costly Design Changes Later in The Development Cycle

Demo Cheap. Foods Distribution Center

Cheap. Foods Distribution Center § Cheap. Food Supermarkets has several stores in the St. Louis area. § However, each is supplied from a different warehouse out of state. § To cut costs, the owner of Cheap. Foods has decided to build a warehouse in the St. Louis area.

Cheap. Foods Products Cheap. Foods only sells three items. However, each has to travel on its own truck because of certain constraints. Item Requirements: 3 Supply Cost: Ice Cream Requires freezer truck. 3 x$ 2 Meat Requires refrigerator truck and is perishable. 2 x$ 1 Twinkies Doesn’t require special truck and lasts forever. 1 x$

Cheap. Foods Territory

Problem Solved! Great! Now, supply costs for the supermarkets are at a minimum. The owner can go home and buy that Ferrari he’s been wanting and the operations engineer can go back to his desk. This was a VERY simplified example but it shows how a model can help provide insight into problem and identify a solution

When Do You Use AM&S? Product Life Cycle Customer Define Mission/ Needs Analysis Function Requirements Define System Requirements & Concepts Define/ Develop Concept Perform Preliminary Detailed Definition Production Support Voice of the Customer / Needs Analysis Requirements Analysis / Trade Studies Cost & Affordability Effectiveness Analysis / Trade Studies Analysis of Alternatives Advanced Supportability Impact of Technologies Create New Competitive Assessment Capture New Test & Evaluation Business Keep It Sold AM&S is Needed Across the Product Life Cycle

Customer Needs Analysis / Requirements Definition Decision Analysis Understand Customer Needs § Operational Requirements § Budget constraints § Network Environment (FAA, DOD, etc. ) Begin long term Customer Relationship § Deriving Requirements § Developing plans for product design § Ensuring Customer involvement throughout product life cycle

Cost-Effectiveness Trades Affordability § Life Cycle Cost/Total Ownership Cost § Design to Cost § Best Value

Analysis of Alternatives n Work with customer to identify design, configuration, or approach alternatives n Evaluate operational effectiveness of each alternative n Evaluate cost considerations for each alternative n Compare cost and performance for each alternative n Provide customers with insight to desired options n Provide justification and support for selecting the preferred alternative

National Air Space - Wide Delay / Capacity Analysis for BCA Flight Operations Strategy Analysis of Alternatives

Statement of Problem and Alternatives • Quantify, in terms of reduced system delays, the benefits of the alternative airport capacityincreasing concepts § Alternative 1: Navigation improvements § Alternative 2: Alternative 1 plus landing system improvements § Alternative 3: Alternative 2 plus Air Traffic Control (ATC) improvements

Modeling Approach Boeing National Flow Model (NFM) § National Air Space (NAS)-wide traffic analysis for a single day § Simulation with a network of queues § Queues for capacitated elements § Input flight schedules and capacities § Output delay statistics § Directly addressed delay propagation NFM Network of Queues

Assumptions n n n Used Current Market Outlook-based future schedule generation capability to analyze traffic levels for y 2000, 2015, and 2020 Annualized results by taking the weighted average of six “representative” days Assumed no airline schedule re-planning, including no flight cancellations

Conclusion and Recommendations n n n Successfully supported benefits analysis comparing the relative effectiveness of the alternatives ATC improvements (associated with Alt 3) were shown to have the greatest benefit The 20 -25% capacity increases of Alt 3 are magnified into a 50% reduction in delays when confronted with y 2020 traffic Better

Benefits to Stakeholders n n n Methodology can be used to show capacity increases translate to end-user benefits in terms of decreased delays Methodology is more credible than alternative approaches because it considers delay propagation, airport inter-dependencies and weather conditions correlated between airports Helps direct executive-level decision making in terms of which alternatives are most cost-effective to pursue n n n Helps BCA to price avionics products Helps influence air traffic service providers to improve system performance so Boeing can sell more airplanes Provides analytical evidence of benefits that may be used in presentations to airline customers

Advanced Supportability AM&S § Supply Chain Management § Maintenance Management Analysis § Supply Management Analysis

NASA Cargo Processing for the Shuttle and Space Station Multi-Purpose Logistics Module (MPLM) Assembly Process

Statement of Problem n n n With the elements of the International Space Station being delivered to Earth orbit, Multiple cargo missions were needed NASA experienced complex delays and problems in loading the MPLM and processing cargo for the Shuttle missions Needed to find the problem areas and test potential solutions

Potential Alternative Solutions n Current process had not yet impacted a Shuttle launch date n n Excessive overtime and “last minute heroics” to meet schedule Either continue current process or find alternative Complete “re-write” of current procedures and processes at high cost Determine problem areas and test solutions

Modeling Approach n n Developed model to replicate current processes including current delay factors Used Monte Carlo to replicate process performance ranges Showed sensitivity of each process step to change and effect on overall process efficiency Tested potential changes in process and formulated course of action for correction

Conclusion and Recommendations n n Determined a 60% increase in efficiency to meet established schedules was possible Identified process areas to target and tested possible solutions Replicated new process changes Recommended four significant changes in cargo processing – low cost with high return Increased Efficiency Led to Boeing Win on Renewal of Cargo Processing Contract at Kennedy Space Center

Advanced Supportability AM&S Benefits n n Help identify, evaluate and integrate new technologies to aid support concepts Identify candidate new support options to improve response time and reduce cost n Explore Sustainment options early n Identify required spares and staging requirements n Experiment with and predict support requirements n Ensure support options are well explored n Demonstrate to customer benefits of support plan

Test & Evaluation (T&E): Virtual Integrated Simulation Network Level 1: Systems Level Flight Sim. , Mesa, ITDL , VWC Huntsville, Philadelphia, Co. S § Operators § AWACS § Canard Rotor Wing § Space Based Radar / Space Assets § Unmanned Combat Air Vehicle / UAV Level 2: Tactical Level VWC § Concept of Operations § Systems-of-Systems § Operators § Interoperability § Tactical S&R/C 2/BM § Linked to FCS Joint Virtual Battlescape Level 3: Operational Level BIC § FAA § Advanced NCO Command & Control § BMC 4 ISR § Operators § Interoperability

Virtual T&E Benefits n Work with customer to anticipate problems with design parameters n Verify that detailed design meets customer requirements n Understand sensitivity to performance and cost n Anticipate problems before flight test n Predict Test & Evaluation performance n Minimize live test through virtual T & E and reduce overall test and evaluation cost F/A-18 Saved 155 Test Flights through Judicious Use of Virtual T&E

Production Design AM&S Process Simulation Paint Prep Facility Layout Graphite Lay-up Production Area

Production Design AM&S Benefits n Anticipate and correct Producibility problems n Model production flow n Identify bottlenecks n n Identify recommended changes to production line Experiment with production improvements without interfering with current production schedule This document does not contain technical data as defined in the International Traffic in Arms Regulations (22 CFR 120. 10) per 125. 4(b)(13) or the Export Arms Regulations (15 CFR 779. 1) APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE GP 42656027. ppt

AM&S Summary

Benefits of AM&S § Economical method of testing a broad array of “What Ifs” § Provides information to help balance Performance and Cost § Enables the demonstration of baseline capabilities under a wide variety of environments/scenarios § Provides the customer a consistent and transparent basis for your decisions § Strengthens the customers perception of how decision are made at Boeing

Competitive Advantage n n AM&S provides an early understanding of system capabilities, performance, and effectiveness AM&S provides information as to which design features or system capabilities “buy” their way on to the system Cost as an Independent Variable (CAIV) Simulation allows head to head comparison of competitive designs before downselect Simulation provides the customer with the opportunity to experience how the product will perform AM&S Allows the Customer to “See” How the System Will Perform

Questions?

Contact Info n n Joe Adamo 314 -233 -2688 Joseph. a. adamo@boeing. com Joyce Wheeler 314 -232 -9322 Joyce. a. wheeler@boeing. com