An Assessment of HOPE-Style Merit Scholarships Christopher M

An Assessment of “HOPE-Style” Merit Scholarships Christopher M. Cornwell and David B. Mustard University of Georgia

Background o o o Growth of large-scale, state merit aid Georgia’s HOPE Scholarship as the model Common features n n n o Entitlement--based on high-school GPA (and sometimes test scores) No limit on # of award winners Scholars are eligible for multiple years Common justifications: n n n Increase enrollments in state universities Keep the best and brightest in state Promote academic achievement

Large-scale State Merit Programs o o o o Arkansas Academic Challenge (1991) Georgia’s HOPE (1993) Florida Bright Futures (1997) New Mexico Success (1997) Louisiana Tops (1998) South Carolina Life (1998) Kentucky Ed. Excellence Sch. (1999) U. of Alaska Scholars Program (1999) Washington Promise (1999) Maryland HOPE (2000) Nevada Millennium (2000) West Virginia Promise (2002) Tennessee HOPE (2004) Massachusetts Adams Scholarship (2005)

Georgia’s HOPE Program o o HOPE – Helping Outstanding Pupils Educationally Introduced in 1993 and funded by a state lottery Almost $3. 6 billion disbursed to over 900, 000 students Two types of aid: n n Scholarship – merit-based; for degree-seeking students Grant – not based on merit; for certificate and diploma seekers

Georgia’s HOPE Program o Scholarship awards n n o Public schools – full tuition and fees + $300 book allowance Private schools – $3, 000 voucher Eligibility and retention n n ‘B’ average in HS core courses 3. 0 in college, checked at systematic intervals

Georgia’s HOPE Program

Georgia’s HOPE Program o Significant program changes n n o Income cap relaxed in 1994 and eliminated in 1995 Expanded to include non-traditional students (1996), home-schoolers (1998) “Add-on” scholarships (late 1990 s) Removal of Pell offset (2001) Growing concern that expenditures will outstrip lottery revenue

Georgia’s HOPE Program

Georgia’s HOPE Program

Assessing HOPE o o Financing Merit Aid Enrollments n n o o College stratification Academic achievement n n n o Effect on Georgia institutions Effect on “brain drain” College GPA Course loads Course and major selection But do they stay?

Financing Merit Aid o Methods of financing n n n Lottery (Georgia, Florida, Kentucky, New Mexico, South Carolina, Tennessee) General revenue (Arkansas, Louisiana, Washington) Tobacco settlement (Michigan) Video gambling (West Virginia) Interest on land leases and sales (Alaska)

Financing Merit Aid

Financing Merit Aid

Financing Merit Aid

Financing Merit Aid

Financing Merit Aid

Enrollments Percentage Increases in Freshmen Enrollments Attributable to HOPE By Institution Type and Race, 1988 -97 Group Overall 4 -Year Publics 4 -Year 2 -Year Privates Publics 2 -Year Publics + Techs All 5. 9 9. 0 13. 0 ns ns Whites 3. 6 4. 4 9. 2 ns ns Blacks 15. 8 26. 0 16. 8 ns 11. 6

Enrollments HOPE Effects on Student Migration Numbers of Recent Freshmen in 4 -Year Schools By Residency and Destination, 1988, 92, 94, 96 Students in State Residents in College Stayers Out-of. Staters Leavers Number 1216 280 840 376 -560 t-ratio 1. 44 0. 41 1. 39 1. 28 3. 09 Out-of-State effect = Students in State – Stayers Leavers effect = Residents in College – Stayers

College Stratification

College Stratification

College Stratification Effects of HOPE on SAT Scores and Class Rank By Institution Type, 1989 -2001 Quality Measure All University Comprehensive 4 -Year Mean SATM 6. 2 9. 4 ns ns Mean SATV 4. 9 14. 3 6. 9 ns SATM sd ns -2. 2 ns ns SATV sd ns -3. 5 ns 1. 8 Top 10% ns 7. 6 1. 7 ns

College Stratification Effects of HOPE on Acceptance and Yield Rates By Institution Type, 1989 -2001 Quality Measure All Acceptance Rate -7. 5 ns Yield Rate University Comprehensive 4 -Year -8. 4 -3. 6 -9. 9 4. 1 ns 3. 5

Academic Achievement Cumulative UGA Freshmen GPA Distributions Residents vs Non-Residents

Academic Achievement UGA Freshmen, by Residency and HOPE Status

Academic Achievement Percentage of Freshmen Completing a Full Load Resident vs Non-Residents

Academic Achievement o Course-Load Effects at UGA n n n 5. 1% drop in full-load enrollment rate 16. 1% rise in withdrawal rate 9. 3% drop in full-load completion rate 3100 fewer courses taken Effects concentrated among students predicted to be on or below the retention margin 63% increase in summer-school coursetaking in 1 st summer; 44% in 2 nd

Academic Achievement o Core-Course Selection at UGA n n n o . 63 credit (6%) drop in Math and Science credits in 1 st year 1. 2 credit drop over first two years Consistent with substitution away from courses that have low expected GPAs Major Selection at UGA n n n 1. 2 pct point increase in probability of declaring an Education major (~ 50 students) Effect stronger among women 1. 7 pct point decrease in probability of declaring a Business major

But do they stay?

More on HOPE http: //www. terry. uga. edu/hope/