Air Armament Center War-winning Capabilities…On Time, On Cost Integrated Program Assessment Status 28 February 2008 Mr. Deryl Israel AAC/EN DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A: Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. 1
Outline War-winning Capabilities…On Time, On Cost • Integrated Assessment (IA) Update Ø IA purpose & background Ø Progress since 2007 Industry Day • Program Sufficiency Review (PSR) summary Ø FY 06 -07 activity & results Ø Lessons learned: How to do better SRs Ø Lessons learned: How to build better programs • Way Ahead: Plans for 2008 2
Assessment Purpose & Background War-winning Capabilities…On Time, On Cost • Historically, Eglin programs have ØCost overruns of 15%-30% ØSchedule slips of 6 -12 months • Since FY 06, deployed and integrated a suite of assessments to execute AAC’s vision--Warwinning capabilities… on time, on cost • Intent is to create and maintain a highconfidence portfolio 3
High-Confidence Programs Key Characteristics* War-winning Capabilities…On Time, On Cost • • • • Good “Should-Cost” Estimate Budget/Cost Estimate alignment Approved time-phased CDD requirements Program office resourcing Requirements stability Budget stability mechanism Incremental program plan Short-duration capability release/production schedules SDD phase no greater than 6 years Tech / manufacturing maturity assessment thresholds met Integrated sustainment and depot strategy Realistic test planning, Approved IOT&E plan Life-cycle acquisition strategy—time certain success incentive Executing according to “plan” Probability of Program Success (Po. PS) measures * As Defined by D&SWS design teams 4
AFPEO/WP Policy, 23 May 07 AAC Integrated Assessments War-winning Capabilities…On Time, On Cost • These assessments will help us collaborate with our government stakeholders and industry to improve our acquisition processes and align expectations. • AAC acquisition commanders/directors must effectively employ the assessments during program planning and execution • Assessment leaders will provide results to the PEO/Deputy PEO, Weapons; commanders or directors of appropriate AAC line units; and the AAC Center Senior Functional owning the assessment being reported. 5
Spiral 2 Assessment Engine INPUTS (FROM STD AAC PRODUCTS) War-winning Capabilities…On Time, On Cost Logistics Health Assessment (LHA) Technology Readiness & Integration Assessment (TRA) Manufacturing Readiness Assessment (MRA) Rollout Spring ‘ 08 Systems Engineering Assessment (SEA) Probability of Program Success (Po. PS) Program Sufficiency Review (PSR) Probability of Program Success (Po. PS) Cost Sufficiency Review (CSR) 6
AAC Assessment Life Cycle War-winning Capabilities…On Time, On Cost POM Input MS C Sustainment TRA/ MRA’ MRA/ TRA’ CSR MS B TRA/ MRA’ TRA’/ MRA’ MS A CSR CSR SEA Po. PS PSR Updated Po. PS PSR Monthly SEA Quarterly Updated LHA (As Required) SEA LHA Updated (As Required) Po. PS PSR Monthly LHA Po. PS PSR (As Required) 7
Progress Since 2007 Industry Day War-winning Capabilities…On Time, On Cost • Probability of Program Success (Po. PS) Ø Consistent monthly updates in SMART Ø Internal audits drive process compliance • Cost Sufficiency Review Ø Earlier collaboration between staff & programs • Manufacturing Readiness Assessment Ø Updated guide published 30 Nov 07 • Logistics Health Assessment Ø Increment 1 design complete; approved by AFMC/A 4 Ø Increment 2 design to include Pre MS B coverage • Sufficiency Reviews Ø Co-chaired by AAC/EN, 308 th ARSW/CL Ø Po. PS-based template; promotes standard work Ø Action item status reported at program reviews 8
FY 06 AAC Sufficiency Reviews War-winning Capabilities…On Time, On Cost AIR-TO-GROUND PROGRAMS Focused Lethality Munition Wind-Correct Mun Disp-Ext Range Laser JDAM Covert Resupply (COVERS) BLU-122 Rebaseline AIR-TO-AIR PROGRAMS AMRAAM FY 08 POM MALD SDD Rebaseline AMRAAM Rebaseline Air Superiority Target FY 08 POM MALD Universal Armament Interface COMBAT SUPPORT PROGRAMS Munition Assy Conveyor II MS C NEW CONCEPT PROGRAMS ALM MK 82 DIME Very Small Munition Tactical Laser for Airfield Defense I-500 Penetrator Small Concept Weapon on Predator Adaptive Carriage Enterprise Close Air Support Weapons Hd Tgt Void Sens Fuze Risk Reduct O N D J F M A M J J A S Current MAR/Rebaselines since SR/Notes G / None Canceled- major redesign req’d G / None User requirement withdrawn Canceled- producibility issues User did not include in POM R / None / FY 08 funding issue Y / None Contract award: FY 10 Plan presented at EWSR AAC/CA Approved Prod Concept provided to SECAF Concept provided to AFSOC Concept provided to ACC Assessment sent to AFMC/CC Concept provided to SOCOM Concept provided to AFSOC PDRR on track; JCTD starts FY 08 AAC Totals 20 (13 7 ) 1 2 1 1 3 1 5 1 1 0 2 3 Realistic, Carries Risk 9
FY 07 AAC Sufficiency Reviews War-winning Capabilities…On Time, On Cost O N D J F M A M J J A S Current MAR/Rebaselines since SR/Notes AIR-TO-GROUND PROGRAMS AMSTE-JDAM JASSM-ER Restructure JASSM Maritime Interdiction JDAM Production Laser JDAM SDB II Cost (prior to Do. D CAIG rvw) SFW Production FY 10 POM AIR-TO-AIR PROGRAMS AST Business Jet Ao. A MALD-J SDD AST QF-16 Update COMBAT SUPPORT PROGRAMS CRIIS Rapid Prototype Joint Threat Emitter CRIIS Risk Reduction & SDD P 5 Combat Training System Automated Remote Transport Sys CRIIS Test & Training NEW CONCEPT PROGRAMS Adv Tactical Laser Ext User Eval Hard Tgt Void Sensing Fuze JCTD Massive Ordnance Penetrator QRC Hard Tgt Void Sensing Fuze AAC Totals 22 (6 16 ) 3 1 4 3 2 3 1 1 1 0 1 2 Realistic, Carries Risk R R G G / / / User requirement withdrawn None – Awaiting N-M decision None Ao. A eliminated concept G / None PDRR Contract award: FY 10 Prototype effort: on track G / None Contract award: FY 08 G / None Contract award: FY 10 Extended User Eval JCTD User requirement withdrawn FY 08 JCTD; SDD start: FY 10 10
AAC Portfolio Performance War-winning Capabilities…On Time, On Cost Program Rebaselines: 3 11
AAC Portfolio Performance War-winning Capabilities…On Time, On Cost Program Rebaselines: 2 12
Lessons Learned How to do better Sufficiency Reviews War-winning Capabilities…On Time, On Cost Do: • Employ cross-functional approach when completing assessments • Use proper versions of process guides/tools (e. g. Po. PS spreadsheet) • Conduct sufficient “deep dives” into appropriate individual assessments • Address weaponeering & mission planning across entire life cycle • Present efficient and effective test plans built with CTA & RTO inputs • Incentivize supplier decision processes when transitioning to production • Identify opportunities to validate manufacturing processes • Carefully select cost/schedule benchmarks • Conduct thorough Cost SRs prior to Program SRs • Use Po. PS results in Program SRs to identify, communicate risks Don’t: • Assume all AAC programs will be low-risk efforts • Over-optimistically evaluate programs • View Cost and Program SRs as the IG; they are home team help 13
Assessments Becoming AF Tools War-winning Capabilities…On Time, On Cost • AAC leaders assigned to AFSO 21 Develop & Sustain Warfighting Systems (D&SWS) teams Ø Ms Stokley, AAC/CA, co-sponsored Life Cycle Management; Oversight/Command & Control teams Ø Ms Rutledge, 708 ARSG/CL; Mr Mistretta, AAC/EN; Tech Development team Ø Mr Walley, 918 ARSG/DD; Life Cycle Management team • Assessments endorsed by AFMC/CC; SAF/AQ to create & maintain high-confidence programs Ø Po. PS: key risk management tool & metric Ø TRAs/MRAs: enable “stage gating” milestones Ø SEA: moving toward AFMC-wide application Ø LHA: Sponsored by AFMC/A 4 Ø Sufficiency Reviews: req’d at key decision points Ø AF-level Implementation planning now underway 14
Building Better Programs Attaining High Confidence War-winning Capabilities…On Time, On Cost • Better transition planning, decisions via technology and manufacturing assessments, Po. PS, Pre-MS B risk reduction phase* • Iterative requirements that evolve, provide trade space prior to MS B* • Stable requirements for a given increment* • Realistic resourcing ($$ and people)* • Risk-based source selections* • Strong, consistent Systems Engineering processes* • Incremental development w/ discrete offramps* • Incentivize sustainment (affordability/availability)* • Proactive risk management* • Early, active test community involvement in test planning • Up-front weaponeering & mission planning—and resources * Proposed by D&SWS design teams 15
Way Ahead: 2008 Plans War-winning Capabilities…On Time, On Cost • Share AAC processes/lessons learned via D&SWS Ø Enable running start at other centers Ø Facilitate Po. PS training at other Centers Ø Personnel from other Centers attend AAC IA events • Design LHA Increment 2 (supports pre-MS B efforts) • Align AAC IA improvements with D&SWS Ø Integrate near-term AFMC; SAF/AQ decisions Ø Minimize scrap & rework as AF standards adopted Ø Continue process standardization • Leverage assessments to streamline doc prep Ø Summarize key results in AAC Expectation Mgt Agreements Ø Use assessment products to streamline Life Cycle Mgt Plan creation/updates via Zero Based Documentation pilots 16
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