Aging Aircraft and Obsolete Avionics Chapter Summit 2011

Aging Aircraft and Obsolete Avionics Chapter Summit 2011 Group 1 B Topic Leader: Kenneth Bandelier

Executive Summary: Goal • Evaluate material integrity of airframes with current flight status, safety guidelines, and project future needs of airframes and avionics. Summary • It must be recognized that the compliance for regulations for safety are the primary impetus that drives avionics development and adoption. Therefore, decisions regarding the selection of cost effective avionics solutions that will provide adequate regulatory and safety compliance longevity need to be considered in the context of the aircraft it is to be used. Ø Leasing avionics was determined to be the overall best solution. This applies most conclusively with respect to current airframes. Ø For UAVs and spacecraft, it may be more cost effective to utilize COTS technology specifically since the regulatory landscape is not as well defined. Ø Increased finance pressure on avionics users and regulatory bodies in the near term could favor a solution that is more heavily weighted towards cost reductions which would favor a strategy like COTS based avionics. Ø All of these strategies have been used successfully to some degree by companies involved in the avionics industry in certain market segments.

Aerospace Industry Worldwide Global Aerospace and Defense Projections • U. S. aerospace industry shipments in 2010 were valued at $171 billion.

Important Market Segments 1. Commercial Transport • Large Aircraft – Passenger / Air Freight • Regional / Business Jets • Rotorcraft 2. Military • Transport • War Fighters 3. Space & Sub-orbital • • 4. Satellite Delivery Space Exploration / Tourism UAVs • • 5. Military / Government Agency Research General Aviation • Small / Personal aircraft

Typical Avionics Cost Ø For B 787 – Avionics cost upwards of $20 million

Typical Age of Airframe & Avionics Not uncommon for service life of 20+ years • Depends on craft usage • Must continue to comply with regulatory / safety requirements • Cost of maintainability a factor

Objectives 1. Establish cost reduction option for implementation of avionics and navigational aids. 2. Evaluate suitability of regulations governing UAVs, spacecraft, and current airframes. 3. Consider leased INS or other NAV equipment that plugs and plays. 4. Make the right Nav-Aid and collision avoidance decisions today for flight safety tomorrow.

Cost Reduction Strategies 1. Reduce number of dedicated discrete avionics with integrated avionics performing multiple functions. 2. Re-use older avionics designs with minor updates to accommodate new aircraft requirements. 3. Replace older avionics designs with avionics based upon newer COTS technology. 4. Leasing avionics for aircraft.

Cost Reduction Analysis 1. Integrated multi-purpose Avionics Ø The GLU-925 Multi-Mode Receiver (MMR) is the first certified example of an integrated navigational system that incorporates signals from multiple types of navigational and landing systems; including GPS [WAAS and LAAS], GNSS, VOR, MLS, and ILS while integrating them into a single unit. Ø Assumed cost reduction of integrated unit • • • Avionics with one primary function (VOR, ILS, etc. ) cost ~ $20, 000 to $60, 000 USD versus integrated avionics (MMR) cost ~ $70, 000 USD Avionics spare pool for 1 MMR versus multiple discrete avionics savings cost ~ $100, 000 USD Maintenance costs savings generated from not supporting multiple avionics with dedicated test bench and specialized technician ~ $150, 000 USD Ø Assumed Challenges • • Integrated avionics failure impacts multiple aircraft functions reliability Avionics design complexity increased

Cost Reduction Analysis 2. Re-use existing avionics with minor updates Ø Assumed cost reduction of minor updates • Avionics already working; minimal updating for new desired aircraft compatibility / features • Established maintenance knowledge and equipment readily available Ø Assumed Challenges • Ability to add newer technologies limited • Obsolescence a concern with older avionics designs Honeywell providing updated Quantum Line avionics for Boeing’s new 787 aircraft.

Cost Reduction Analysis 3. Using newer COTS technology Ø Assumed cost reduction for COTS • Components have broad user base and therefore lower costs • Initial development costs for technology paid for by other commercial interests of consumer industry • Plentiful and cheap replacement parts for maintenance Ø Assumed challenges • Susceptible to obsolescence due to abrupt changes in consumer preferences for new or different technology • Reliability and redundancy of COTS technology not up to aerospace / military requirements Avionics Full-Duplex Switched Ethernet (AFDX) is based on IEEE 802. 3 Ethernet technology and utilizes commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) components.

Cost Reduction Analysis 4. Leasing avionics for aircraft Ø Assumed cost reduction of leasing • • Ø Leasing is a fraction of cost of owning avionics outright OEMs cover repairs of avionics Need for owning avionics spares can be eliminated Greater cost predictability Assumed challenges • • Lengthy contract periods Limited flexibility to alter avionics after lease initiated An extension of leasing is the “power by the hour” concept whereby customers are billed at a predetermined rate per flight hour.

Suitability of Regulations • • • Regulations issued through local aviation authorities such as FAA, CAAC, EASA, etc. Regulations crafted to date based upon empirical results of aviation industry over several decades. Regulations rely upon international cooperation and agreement fostered by standards bodies such as ICAO and ARINC.

Regulation Analysis • • • For UAVs…. Ø Regulations not currently sufficient; Military needs were initially the main focus not civilian aviation concerns but now trying to adopt civilian regulations. Ø Operationally, UAVs typically operate in different airspace than civilian aircraft. Ø Avionics are currently not well suited for UAVs and have to be replaced with avionics designed specifically for UAV needs. For spacecraft…. Ø Industry dominated by government entities (Do. D, NASA, etc. ) but FAA is gearing up for expected commercial space launches in near future. Ø FAA initiative to partner with NASA and Do. D for various projects to support the integration of commercial space transportation operations in the National Airspace System to be completed by June 30, 2011. Ø FAA initiative to develop and implement strategies to enable safe commercial space flight operations that involve on-board crew, and other space flight participants to be completed August 31, 2011. For current airframes…. Ø Regulatory entities like the FAA have more than 50 years experience crafting regulations. Ø Aviation safety continues to improve even as aviation system capacity and complexity continue to increase. Ø FAA implementing ambitious agenda with the implementation of Next. Gen air transportation system. Ø FAA and other regulatory bodies in danger of budget cuts due to government struggles with sagging worldwide economy.

Overall Metric Evaluation METRICS Avoid Obsolescence Cost Regulatory Approval Totals (weighted 15%) (weighted 25%) (weighted 60%) 1. Integrated multi-purpose Avionics 4 4 2. Re-use existing avionics with minor updates 1 4 4 3. 55 3. Replacing with COTS technology 4 5 3 3. 65 4. Leasing avionics 2 3 5 4. 05 NOTE: Scale 1 to 5 with 5 being most desirable Regulatory Suitability 1. UAVs 3 2. Spacecraft 2 3. Current Airframes 5 Best Overall = Best in category =