Agenda item 1 b UNECE-EUROSTAT-OECD meeting on national accounts: session for transition economies Geneva, 21 April 2008 Ad hoc surveys and measuring the non-observed economy in Western Balkan countries David Roberts, OECD
EUROSTAT-EFTA-OECD NOE project for Western Balkan countries • Two phases: – Phase I: September 2004 to January 2006; funded by Eurostat; carried out by statistical agencies of WBC in consultation with the OECD – Phase II: January 2007 to February 2008; funded by EFTA; carried out by statistical agencies of WBC in consultation with Statistics Norway and the OECD
OBJECTIVES • Apply the Eurostat tabular approach to exhaustiveness to: – Production account (Phase I & II) – Expenditure account (Phase II) • Estimate output of owner-occupied dwellings by the user cost approach (Phase I & II) • Make estimates of output and value added from illegal activities (Phase II) • Carry out ad hoc surveys (Phase I & II)
SUMMARY RESULTS Country NOE adjustment (% of GDP) in 2005 Albania 41. 7 Bosnia Herzegovina 7. 2 Croatia 9. 0 FYR of Macedonia 22. 7 Montenegro 5. 5 Serbia 13. 5
AD HOC SURVEYS: TOPICS • • • Individual agricultural producers (FOSBi. H, MONSTAT) Individual construction (SIRS) Construction firms (SOK) Hotels & restaurants (FOSBi. H) Tourism (MONSTAT) Unincorporated enterprises in healthcare activities (SIRS) H/hold expenditure on healthcare, education & tips (RSOS) Prostitution (CBS) Remittances from abroad received by resident h/holds & expenditure abroad by resident h/holds (RSOS)
AD HOC SURVEYS: ADJUSTMENTS (% of GDP) • • • Individual agricultural producers - FOSBi. H: + 0. 5% Individual agricultural producers - MONSTAT: + 1. 2% Hotels & restaurants – FOSBi. H: + 1. 5% Tourism – MONSTAT: + 0. 3% H/hold expenditure on healthcare, education & tips – RSOS: + 0. 4% • Prostitution – CBS: + 0. 6% • Remittances from abroad received by resident h/holds – RSOS: + 6. 5%
AD HOC SURVEYS: SOME LESSONS LEARNT • Surveys do not have to be random samples, selection can be purposive; innovation should be encouraged • Having a household budget survey infrastructure in place is an advantage – sampling frame, interviews, modules • Need to cross-check against other sources & to adjust or discard survey results for inconsistencies or ”bias” • Useful to share & compare results with countries having similar economies
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