Afghanistan Time to move to Sustainable Jobs International Labour Organisation Afghanistan May 2012
One programme 3 tracks for post conflict employment creation and reintegration Reintegration Transition Target groups Hosting, Local Communities Nation Wide and Decent Work Pre-Peace Accord Planning Peace Agreement Pre-assessments Stabilization Peace Building Process Track A – Stabilizing income generation & emergency Employment Track B – Local Economic recovery for employment opportunities & reintegration Track C - Sustainable Employment creation and Decent Work Sustainable Employment creation Peace Negotiations
Demographic dividend or time bomb? Population pyramid for Afghanistan, 2010 (unit: thousand) 0 -14 = 49% Data Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, http: //esa. un. org/unpd/wpp/index. htm, accessed on 12 April 2012.
Overview of Afghanistan labour market Static Picture as of 2008 n 12. 06 million working-age population n 8. 03 million in labour force (66. 6% LF participation rate) n 823, 000 unemployed (7. 1% unemployment rate) n 3. 87 million underemployed (48. 2% underemployment rate) n 6. 18 million in vulnerable employment (77. 0% of LF) Dynamic Picture n Over 400, 000 Afghans joining the labour force /yr.
Will Afghanistan produce sufficient number of decent jobs?
What may be happening in the market (apart from the expected impact of transition) Manufacturing base being replaced by cheap imports More immigrants coming to Afghanistan Investors refraining from investment
Currencies of major trade partners depreciate Compared to 2002, the currencies depreciated against USD by: TJS -67% IRR -53% PKR -45% TRY -11% While AFN FOREX remains stable (+1. 4%) Data Source) World Development Indicators & Global Development Finance database
Trade data remain approximate … Probable smuggling gaps with top five export and import partner countries Unit : US Dollar thousand 2010 Export 2010 Import record by Afghanistan partner co Pakistan 2010 Export 2010 Import record by partner co Afghanistan 151, 343 138, 375 Uzbekistan India 65, 358 107, 537 China Turkey 34, 775 5, 098 Iran 31, 730 12, 941 Japan Russia 29, 585 22, 000 Germany Pakistan 1, 087, 927 175, 265 703, 845 1, 684, 666 597, 503 96, 877 494, 369 356, 533 422, 290 * Uzbekistan's export figure is the mirror data reported by Afghanistan Source) UN COMTRADE
But reported imports from Iran, Pakistan & Turkey jumped significantly Trade with Iran Trade with Pakistan Trade with Turkey Source) UN COMTRADE
Even imports from China, India & Russia sky-rocketed Trade with China Trade with India Trade with Russia Source) UN COMTRADE
Increasing imports of competing products – a source of concern Competing imports from Iran Competing imports from Pakistan Source) UN COMTRADE
Are the policy responses right? Important structural impediments are addressed in NPPs, but no overarching strategy on competitiveness and job creation Analyses of sectoral strategies may be inaccurate or outdated. PDPs favor Soviet type of investment plans without serious consideration of competitiveness, feasibility and private sector-led investment Impact of community livelihood interventions dubious
Recommendations Towards more & better jobs Re-evaluate competitiveness of strategic sectors and Afghan labour in a regional trade environment Track B: Revisit strategies on local economic recovery for employment opportunities and reintegration Track C: Revisit consistency of national development policies towards sustainable job creation and decent work
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