Appendices, Vitalya.pptx
- Количество слайдов: 8
Additional reasons Cost of Equity =15, 80% 100% Cost of Debt 9, 60% 90% 15, 80% 70% 60% Equity 80% 50% 40% WACC 13, 83% 20% 10% Debt 30% 0% Cost of Debt = 9, 60% Summary
DCF summary 14% 4% 2% 2. 0% Cost of Debt 6% Cost of Equity 8% 3. 0% 2. 5% 12% 10% 3. 5% 0% WACC=13, 83% EV 2 275 793 ths. USD Shares outstanding = 79 140 131 1. 5% 1. 0% 0. 5% 0. 0% Value per share 20, 65 USD / 65, 26 PLN 3, 0% Long-term US inflation 16% PV FCFF 1 641 915 ths. USD World population growth rate PV FCFF 633 878 ths. USD Terminal growth rate 18% g = 3, 00% Summary
Detailed revenue and costs Ths. USD 2012/13 E 2013/14 F 2014/15 F 2015/16 F 2016/17 F Revenue from oil, cake and meal Revenue from grain trade Revenue from farming Revenue from grain silo (business) services Revenue from transshipment services 1 674 501 772 923 21 739 29 176 31 243 1 793 138 1 092 869 28 954 29 087 38 373 1 940 833 1 188 004 33 923 31 401 47 297 2 086 969 1 330 498 37 360 31 852 47 414 2 183 043 1 363 658 39 471 32 181 47 535 Revenue (external) 6 400 2 535 981 2482250 2 982 421 2588600 Sugar plants are sold 3 241 458 3 534 093 2846600 3137250 3 665 888 3379670 1 798 844 91 263 44 739 47 835 39 078 2 021 760 2 120 329 101 622 49 103 52 486 46 871 2 370 410 2 306 864 107 049 51 407 55 009 51 265 2 571 595 2 517 592 120 719 53 591 57 308 55 605 2 804 815 2 612 499 125 341 54 750 58 563 57 981 2 909 134 Gross profit 514 222 612 011 669 863 729 278 756 754 Operating profit 270 602 335 141 373 493 407 925 423 146 Net Profit 197 218 244 767 273 741 297 684 301 498 Total Revenue Bloomberg consensus Cost of goods for resale and raw materials used Amortisation and depreciation Payroll and payroll-related costs Rental expenses Other operating costs Total Costs Summary
Dividends Ths. USD Net Income 450, 000 400, 000 350, 000 300, 000 250, 000 200, 000 150, 000 100, 000 50, 000 0 Dividends Dividend payout ratio 30% 8 F 17 /1 7 F 20 /1 16 6 F 20 15 /1 5 F 20 14 /1 4 F 20 /1 13 20 12 /1 3 E 4. 00 3. 50 3. 00 2. 50 2. 00 1. 50 1. 00 0. 50 0. 00 20 8 F 17 /1 7 F 20 16 /1 6 F 20 15 /1 5 F 20 14 /1 4 F /1 20 13 20 /1 3 E 2 12 /1 20 11 20 20 10 /1 1 Dividends per share, PLN Summary
Revenue-Cash Flows Ths. USD Revenue 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 E 2013/14 F 2014/15 F 2015/16 F 2016/17 F 2017/18 F 1 899 118 2 157 441 2 535 981 2 982 421 3 241 458 3 534 093 3 665 888 3 814 298 Gross profit 1 408 706 1 634 094 1 930 497 2 268 788 2 464 545 2 684 096 2 783 793 2 896 162 EBITDA 308 153 318 844 361 865 436 763 480 543 528 644 548 486 569 389 EBITDA margin 16, 2% 14, 8% 14, 3% 14, 6% 14, 8% 15, 0% 14, 9% EBIT 277 268 256 470 270 602 335 141 373 493 407 925 423 146 439 229 Net Income 226 047 210 782 197 218 244 767 273 741 297 684 301 498 306 030 net margin 11, 9% 9, 8% 7, 8% 8, 2% 8, 4% 8, 2% 8, 0% NOPAT 257 881 257 389 252 848 317 387 355 739 390 171 405 392 421 475 D&A 32 361 65 505 Change in WC -180 109 -242 134 Cap. Ex 190 646 319 516 91 263 101 622 107 049 120 719 125 341 130 160 -26 038 -116 559 -71 883 -73 866 -36 868 -37 610 236 766 184 818 185 427 164 531 168 839 174 134 FCFF 81 307 117 632 205 478 272 493 325 025 339 892 PV FCFF 71 428 90 783 139 310 162 296 170 062 Summary
Aggregated Balance Ths. USD 2011/12 2012/13 E 2013/14 F 2014/15 F 2015/16 F 2016/17 F 2017/18 F ASSETS Total current assets 1 121 040 1 213 786 1 438 307 1 683 444 1 992 383 2 292 023 2 597 602 Total non-current assets 997 992 1 143 495 1 226 691 1 305 068 1 348 880 1 392 379 1 436 352 Total Assets 2 119 032 2 357 280 2 664 998 2 988 512 3 341 263 3 684 402 4 033 954 LIABILITIES AND EQUITY Total current liabilities 448 798 500 320 576 291 640 628 711 531 769 211 829 014 Total non-current liabilities 459 533 508 207 568 615 636 175 709 644 784 054 859 582 Total equity & Minor interest 1 210 701 1 348 754 1 520 091 1 710 1 920 088 2 131 137 2 345 358 Total Liabilities and Equity 2 119 032 2 357 280 2 664 998 2 988 512 3 341 263 3 684 402 4 033 954 Summary
USD/PLN exchange rate Applied USD/PLN rate 3, 16 Histogram of PLN exchange rate for 2012 Summary
Management guidance error 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 Ths. USD Revenue EBITDA net income plan result 1 100 000 1 047 113 185 000 189 615 115 000 131 982 % of error -4, 8% 2, 5% 14, 8% plan result 1 050 000 1 020 471 185 000 185 297 130 000 151 701 % of error -2, 8% 0, 2% 16, 7% plan result 1 300 000 1 899 118 255 000 308 153 195 000 226 047 % of error 46, 1% 20, 8% 15, 9% plan result 2 300 000 2 157 441 370 000 318 844 255 000 210 782 % of error -6, 2% -13, 8% -17, 3% plan DCF 2 400 000 2 535 981 350 000 361 865 215 000 197 218 % of error 5, 7% 3, 4% -8, 3% Summary


