ADAPTIVE DESIGN TO DSS Dr Ir Sudaryanto MSc

ADAPTIVE DESIGN TO DSS Dr. Ir. Sudaryanto, MSc. Sudaryanto@staff. gunadarma. ac. id Decision Support System

Decision Support n n n Economic limits – humans are expensive – increasing their number of compensate for cognitive limits, can become economically prohibitive Temporal limits – decision may be required in a time frame that puts severe pressure on a decision maker – given limits in human processing speed, the decision maker may be forced to use unwanted strategy Competitive strategy implications

Decision Support – Nature of support n Systems that solve problems involved in decision making n Systems that facilitate/extend knowledge management capabilities n Systems that coordinate distributed decision making n Systems that offer advice, expectations, facts, analyses, etc. n Above are interactive in nature

Decision Making n – May range from supporting structured to unstructured decision processes – May play a stimulative role Source of support – Human – Computer (metaphor)

Working Definition of DSS n A DSS is an interactive, flexible, and adaptable CBIS, specially developed for supporting the solution of a non-structured management problem for improved decision making. It utilizes data, it provides easy user interface, and it allows for the decision maker’s own insights n DSS may utilize models, is built by an interactive process (frequently by end-users), supports all the phases of the decision making, and may include a knowledge component n

Decision Support System • Computer based system • To enhance the effectiveness of DM in performing semi structures tasks • The DM is uncertain about the opportunity, alternative solutions • DSS is to aid the judgment process • Sprague: • The DM or user cannot define the functional requirementsof DSS in advance • The user and the designer will “learn” about the decisiontasks and the environment • Identifying new and unanticipated functional requirements Decision Support System

THE ADAPTIVE DESIGN PROCESS • Combine four activities of traditional system development • Requirements analysis • Design • Development • Implementation • Iteratively repeated in a relatively short time • Major components • The builder • The user • The technical systems (DSS) Decision Support System

The Adaptive Links Interaction between the components of adaptive design Builder System User Decision Support System

The Components THE USER • Manager or individual faced with problem or opportunity • Responsible for taking action and its consequences • Not necessarily directly interact with the system • Intermediary provide interface between the user and the system • Clerical role • Staff assistant Decision Support System

The Components DSS BUILDER • Individual who develops the specific DSS • Should be knowledgeable about IST and capabilities • Become familiar with the task for which DSS is being designed • May play the role of user intermediary Decision Support System

The Components THE TECHNICAL SYSTEM • Software and hardware provided to the user • Configurated from DSS generator and or DSS tools • DSS generator is a package which provides a set of capabilities to build a specific DSS quickly and easily • Executive Information System (Boeing Computer • Services) • DSS Tools are hardware and software elements applied to the development of a specific DSS or DSS generator • General purpose programming languages • Database management systems • Financial planning languages Decision Support System

INTERACTIONS USER–SYSTEM • Deals with the effects of a user’s characteristics on the systems utilization • Dickson, Chervany and Senn • Problem solving styles • Experience • Background and skills • Influence the quantity and quality of system utilization • Alavi and Henderson • Individual with analytical problem solving style are more willing to use DSS than intuitive individuals • User learning as a result of using the system • Understanding and perception Decision Support System

INTERACTIONS • BUILDER-SYSTEM • Builder adds new capabilities and functions to the system • System evaluation and change only possible if system architecture flexible USER–BUILDER • Involve communication and collaboration between the user and the builder • The user learns about the capabilities and possibilities for DSS • The designer learns about the user requirements and build credibility • Effective communication and collaboration is key aspects Decision Support System Of adaptive design

Case Study • An Overview • The system has been implemented in a real estate development and management firm • Revenue 50 US$ millions • Experienced with using computer, • no experience operating DSS Decision Support System

The Element of Adaptive Design Users CEO Administrative VP Manager of Operations Controller DSS The corporate Cash flow model Builder IS consultant Decision Support System

The Users • Chief executive officer • summary corporate cash flow analysis • projection system and sensitivity analysis • identifying times when cash is needed • hold and sell decision for existing properties • Invest for new real estate development • using the system through intermediary (controller) • Administrative VP and Manager of Operations • budgeting for individual project Decision Support System

The Builders The Builder: An ÍS consultant • DSS generator: Interactive Financial Planning System (comshore) In the early stages, acted as intermediary to the CEO and the controller Decision Support System

The DSS : The corporate cash flow system • Consist of seven models • model project planning and budgeting systems • model partner • model for detailed report • model notes receivables • model notes payable • model corporate cash flow • model investment Decision Support System

Application of Adaptive Approach • Prior the development of DSS • cash flow analysis and projection were performed manually • time consuming • error prone • provide no opportunities for sensitivity analysis Decision Support System

Application of Adaptive Approach • Initiative for DSS come from CEO, • improve effectiveness and timeliness of cash flow projection • discussion with builder • dynamic of real estate financing • characteristic of business • perceived information needed Decision Support System

Application of Adaptive Approach • Builder develop simple cash-flow model • Demonstrate the potential for decision support, essential feature of DSS • Enhance builder understanding of user’s business and environment Decision Support System

The Stage: First Iteration • Prior the development of DSS • Seminar on financial planning and capabilities of interactive financial planning System (IFPS) • Controller: It may require more work than manual system • Provide information and input about financial operation and features needed • The builder • Assume role of educator • Provide illustration and potential capabilities • CEO: involve in the development of cash flow system Decision Support System

The Stage: First Iteration • First version • Model CASHFLO, summary cash flow and projection for CEO • Model MNOTREC, MNOTPAY, MINV and PARTNER • First iteration: Time required • 49 hrs (builder), 25 hrs (controller), 10 hrs (CEO) • Completed in 1 month elapsed time Decision Support System

The Stage: Second Iteration • All users (CEO, controller, VPA, operation manager) • Actively participate in the second iteration • Development of PPBS model and creation of input file contained detailed operation and individual properties • Time required • 31. 5 hrs (builder), 15 hrs (VPA), 10 hrs (controller), • 5 hrs (CEO) • The task: • CEO: monitoring project activities and progress • Other user: Output reports and processing logic, input datafiles Decision Support System

The Stage: Third Iteration • All functional requirement were satisfied • Still need modification and refinement • Single large model to generate detailed report is inefficient, • Time, computing resources • replaced by 12 models for report, more efficient • Time required • 60 hrs (builder), 20 hrs (controller), Decision Support System

Case: BENEFITS OF MIDS • Better information • Providing relevant, accurate information • Providing answer to the question • Knowledge about related areas • Current updated information • Improved communication • Share information with vendors, customers, legislators • PROFS provides e-mail • Daily diary Decision Support System

BENEFITS OF MIDS (cont. ) • Evolving understanding of information requirements • Evolutionary development of MIDS make possible • Complete information requirement for DSS • Cost reduction • Printed reports, graphs, non manual report production • Less time needed to produce report • Intangible benefits Decision Support System

KEYS TO THE SUCCESS • A committed senior executive sponsor • Involvement of management in the creation • Provide encouragement for the development • Carefully defined system requirements • Tailored to meet information needs of user • Ease to use, Fast response time • Updating: easy and quick • Carefully defined information requirements • Relevant information • Adding, modifying, deleting displays as needed Decision Support System

KEYS TO THE SUCCESS • A team approach to system development • Combination of staff background, • Complementary, synergy • An evolutionary development approach • Expanded and evolved according to the information needs • Careful computer hardware and software selection • Early stage: develop software in-house • Later stage: use commercial software Decision Support System

END Decision Support System