ADAPT Project Towards an integrated decision tool for

ADAPT Project: Towards an integrated decision tool for adaptation measures Case study: floods Economic aspects Fourth Follow Up Committee Meeting Uccle, 12 November 2008 Eve Giron CEESE-ULB Delphine Sacré CEESE-ULB Walter Hecq CEESE-ULB

A) Some reminders Identification of categories of flood damage Physical water contact Economic damage categories Direct Tangible - Buildings - Household goods - Cars -… No physical water contact Indirect Intangible - Loss of life - Biodiversity loss - Spread of pollution & toxics - Stress / disruption of households & populations -Quality loss of water -… Tangible - Production losses - Market disturbances - Impact on land values - Lost income -… Intangible - Reduced competitiveness - Increased vulnerability of economic actors - Worry about the future - Stress -…

A) Some reminders Identification of categories of flood damage Statistical analysis Heavy rains from 25 January to 28 February 2002 (Ourthe) Jan - Feb 2002 Esneux Housing € Number Household goods € Number Business € Number Total € Number Souverain Pré 1. 028 2 731 1 - - 1. 759 3 Hony 35. 227 26 25. 900 25 947 1 62. 074 52 Méry 5. 624 10 4. 784 6 5. 266 1 15. 674 17 Tilff 8. 697 9 1. 561 3 12. 747 1 23. 005 13 Total 50. 576 47 32. 976 35 18. 960 3 102. 511 85 Damage costs (102. 511 €) 49% Housing 18% Household goods Businesses 32%

B) State of progress : Damage functions (buildings) • Literature analyses Y = 2*x² + 2*x « Atlas du Rhin 2001 » Y = HV * ² wd “B. Büchele & al. , 2006” Y = 7119, 37 * wd + 12988, 66 Collection “étude & synthèse” Y = damages (in relative or absolute term) X = wd (m) Wd = Water depth (m) HV = House value (€)

B) State of progress : Damage functions • Adaptation with database of our case studies and choice of the damage function Y = 2 x 2 + 2 x x = water level recorded during the flood in “m” Y = damage percentage in % (Example of the study of « Atlas du Rhin 2001 » ) • Estimation of the house value (HV) ( Relative Y = (2 x 2 + 2 x )*HV/100 • Validation with real data (Disaster Fund) Absolute)

B) State of progress: Estimation of the house value A) House value • First idea: cadastral income (CI) not representative Real value = CI / 5, 3 % • Empirical functions : Ø HV (€) = 125000 + 112 * CI (€) Ø HV (€) = S (m²) * 39, 4 (€/m²) * 33 C F = 0, 6

B) Damage functions : Results € 20000 18000 16000 14000 Calculated damages 12000 Amount requested 10000 Amount allocated 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Thank you for your attention

B) Damage functions : Results Map of economic damages Extend degree :

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