Acquis en Sociologie et Economie appliquées aux Incendies

Acquis en Sociologie et Economie appliquées aux Incendies de Forêt Achievements in Sociology and Economy applied to Wildland Fires EUFIRELAB, Symposium conclusif, Conclusive symposium, Avignon, 20/10/2006 1

Teams, objectives & deliverables in socio-economy issues EUFIRELAB, Symposium conclusif, Conclusive symposium, Avignon, 20/10/2006 2

EUFIRELAB, Symposium conclusif, Conclusive symposium, Avignon, 20/10/2006 3

EUFIRELAB, Symposium conclusif, Conclusive symposium, Avignon, 20/10/2006 4

socio-economy issues shape it all EUFIRELAB, Symposium conclusif, Conclusive symposium, Avignon, 20/10/2006 5

The Interest of Socio-Economical Sciences in Wildland Fires: a State of the Art • Effective fire management needs to know more about where, when and why fires occur. • In the Mediterranean Area, we deal with human caused fires (mostly). • We therefore need to investigate socio-economic factors. • Since causes are more diverse than it is often assumed, – a rational approach is necessary to give an interpretation to this complex reality, which is site and culture-specific (Leone et al, 2003). • Geographic Information Systems (GIS) are appropriate tools to create, transform, and integrate geographical variables related to fire risk in order to supply the geographical location of those areas where risk factors are most severe. EUFIRELAB, Symposium conclusif, Conclusive symposium, Avignon, 20/10/2006 6

Interest of Socio-Economical Sciences in Wildland Fires • Planning, execution & coordination of II International Fire Economic Symposium (April 2004) with the following topics: 1. Methodological approaches to Strategic Fire Management Economy and Planning 2. Market and no-market economic evaluation techniques into wildland fire management and strategic planning 3. Trade-offs between fuel treatment and suppression activities EUFIRELAB, Symposium conclusif, Conclusive symposium, Avignon, 20/10/2006 7

Interest of Socio-Economical Sciences in Wildland Fires – Planning, realization and coordination of 1 st International Course on Landscape, Society and Defense against Forest Fire, (August, 2005) International University of Andalucia. with the following topics: 1. "The forest landscape, modeling prevention of forest fires and economic point of view" 2. "The forest landscape, modification, evolution and forest fire, technical and interpretation tools. “ 3. "Methodological procedures for the determination of the natural regeneration after forest fire the Pinaster Pine” EUFIRELAB, Symposium conclusif, Conclusive symposium, Avignon, 20/10/2006 8

Interest of Socio-Economical Sciences in Wildland Fires 1. “Fire in the forest landscapes: cause and effects“ 2. "The danger of forest fires in the interface area“ 3. "Economic valuation and perception of the society before the forest fires impact“ 4. "The human risk in the forest fires starting and their implication in the causes and motivations. “ Economic analysis of the conditions of the fire behavior, frequency of fires, and costs in the dispatch of the suppression resources, for the initial attack evaluation a province scale, developing and application tool (2005 fire season) EUFIRELAB, Symposium conclusif, Conclusive symposium, Avignon, 20/10/2006 9

Interest of Socio-Economical Sciences in Wildland Fires • An example in S. Spain – Planning, research, and mathematical algorithm developed about economic values of natural Mediterranean from forest fire impact point of view. To integrate in “The National Forests Fire Management System” (Spain) – Research on recreation economic value to elaborate a specific digital map methodology how fire management tool in prevention and strategic planning using GIS. EUFIRELAB, Symposium conclusif, Conclusive symposium, Avignon, 20/10/2006 10

Towards methods for investigating fire causes • Identification and generation of source data for the analysis of human factors related with fire occurrence (spatial and socio-economical variables) at regional scale using GIS. • Integration of available historical fire data and official fire statistics into the database. • Elaboration, application and validation of methodologies to predict fire occurrence at regional scale. EUFIRELAB, Symposium conclusif, Conclusive symposium, Avignon, 20/10/2006 11

Towards methods for studying cost-to-benefit ratio of wildland fire prevention üForest fire valuation and assessment: a survey üA method to study cost-to benefit ratio of wildland fire prevention A French study site Forests damages Buildings damages Mean damage/fire Mean damage/year Scenario Mean surface mean interface Witness 9, 0 ha 4, 2 hm 2707 euros 21182 euros 23888 euros 716647 euros 50 % reduction in track number 9, 2 ha 4, 2 hm 2750 euros 21117 euros 23928 euros 717834 euros 50 % wildlandurban interfaces improved 8, 9 ha 3, 9 hm 2662 euros 9736 euros 12398 euros 371944 euros EUFIRELAB, Symposium conclusif, Conclusive symposium, Avignon, 20/10/2006 12

Towards methods for studying cost-to-benefits ratio of wildland fire prevention • Decision tree Situation 3 16% Vigie + PF 2 GA 1 GAAR Délai long 35% Surface forte 10% Délai court 65% Délai long 59% Surface moy. 18% Délai court 41% Surface faible 72% Délai long 75% Délai court 25% Délai long 2% Surface forte 10% Délai court 98% Jour 68% Situation 2 72% Vigie + PF 2 GA 0 GAAR Été 57 % Surface faible 72% Ts les feux 100 % Situation 1 12% Nuit 32% Hiver 43 % Surface moy. 18% Vigie + PF 1 GA Ni vigie, 0 GAAR ni PF, ni GA Ni vigie, ni GAAR ni PF, ni GAAR Enjeux forts 93% Enjeux faibles 7% Enjeux forts 66% Enjeux faibles 34% Enjeux forts 67% Enjeux faibles 33% Enjeux forts 62% Enjeux faibles 38% Délai long 13% Délai court 87% Délai long 18% Délai court 82% Enjeux forts 70% Enjeux faibles 30% Enjeux forts 76% Enjeux faibles 24% Densité faible 82% Densité forte 18% Densité faible 32% Densité forte 68% Densité faible 48% Densité forte 52% Densité faible 38% Densité forte 62% Densité faible 75% Densité forte 25% Densité faible 51% Densité forte 49% Densité faible 89% Densité forte 11% Densité faible 38% Densité forte 62% Densité faible 80% Densité forte 20% Densité faible 39% Densité forte 61% Densité faible 95% Densité forte 5% Densité faible 61% Densité forte 39% EUFIRELAB, Symposium conclusif, Conclusive symposium, Avignon, 20/10/2006 418 ha brûlés 74 hm d'interface 418 ha brûlés 51 hm d'interface 314 ha brûlés 57 hm d'interface 209 ha brûlés 68 hm d'interface 209 ha brûlés 10 hm d'interface 157 ha brûlés 10 hm d'interface 125 ha brûlés 42 hm d'interface 125 ha brûlés 12 hm d'interface 94 ha brûlés 8 hm d'interface 63 ha brûlés 46 hm d'interface 63 ha brûlés 8 hm d'interface 47 ha brûlés 11 hm d'interface 31 ha brûlés 12 hm d'interface 24 ha brûlés 13 hm d'interface 16 ha brûlés 14 hm d'interface 12 ha brûlés 13 hm d'interface 84 ha brûlés 19 hm d'interface 84 ha brûlés 21 hm d'interface 63 ha brûlés 20 hm d'interface 21 ha brûlés 14 hm d'interface 21 ha brûlés 3 hm d'interface 16 ha brûlés 2 hm d'interface 25 ha brûlés 7 hm d'interface 19 ha brûlés 10 hm d'interface 6 ha brûlés 4 hm d'interface 6 ha brûlés 3 hm d'interface 5 ha brûlés 3 hm d'interface 2 ha brûlés 3 hm d'interface 1 ha brûlés 3 hm d'interface 0, 5 ha brûlés 0 hm d'interface 13 ha brûlés 10 hm d'interface 3 ha brûlés 0 hm d'interface 13

Recommendations for updating the relevant European regulations • Recommendations in this document will be made within six broad topics • 1. Wildland Fire Data sets: enhancing Wildland Fire documentation causes investigation and official Wildland Fire Data sets • 2. Wildland Fire Risk Assessments. • 3. Infrastructures for Wildland Fire Pre-attack • 4. Wildland Fuel treatments across the landscape (Rx) • 5. Best wildland suppression actions • 6. Fire Fighter Job hazard Abatement Actions • 7. Enforcement and punishment (castigation, retribution) EUFIRELAB, Symposium conclusif, Conclusive symposium, Avignon, 20/10/2006 ULUFF 14

Recommendations for updating the relevant European regulations Single owner versus community EUFIRELAB, Symposium conclusif, Conclusive symposium, Avignon, 20/10/2006 ULUFF 15

Updating the relevant European regulations ULUFF • Job Hazard Safety issues: education, training, equipment, protocols, ICS EUFIRELAB, Symposium conclusif, Conclusive symposium, Avignon, 20/10/2006 16

Updating the relevant European regulations ULUFF Job Hazard Safety issues: education, training, equipment, protocols, ICS, … All three fires hit the trigger point and were then in full alignment with wind, slope and solar preheated fuels. Firefighters died because they did not understand the potential fire behavior. Trigger Point of Fire Behavior change Fire Track EUFIRELAB, Symposium conclusif, Conclusive symposium, Avignon, 20/10/2006 17

Updating the relevant European regulations ULUFF • wise use of fire in Catalonia (NE Spain) recent (2006) regulation – Smart (skilful) use of fire under well known fuel bed structures & fire weather • Rx • Suppression fire EUFIRELAB, Symposium conclusif, Conclusive symposium, Avignon, 20/10/2006 18

Kids’ education - Social acceptability • M. EUFIRELAB, Symposium conclusif, Conclusive symposium, Avignon, 20/10/2006 19

Updating the relevant European regulations • Citizen confinement or evacuation ULUFF • If confinement, most likely output – People care for house survival. 6% houses survive undamaged. People may suffer smoke inhalation only. • If evacuation, most likely output – People CANNOT care for house survival. +23% houses CANNOT survive undamaged. People may die: • Catalonia 1993: 5 people died during evacuation (Vespella de Gaià) • Catalonia 2003: 5 people died during evacuation (St Llorenç Savall) • Please, confine citizens – If it is not extreme hazard – If evacuation is unsafe EUFIRELAB, Symposium conclusif, Conclusive symposium, Avignon, 20/10/2006 20

Unit 05 - Merci / thanks • EUFIRELAB, Symposium conclusif, Conclusive symposium, Avignon, 20/10/2006 21