A Triptych in Third G 1 Nice 3

A Triptych in Third. G 1 Nice 3 G 2001 – 23 -05 -01 / Mobile Future / Jv. K – sba 4

Forecasting the Future of Mobile Communications ` Jacob van Kokswijk 5 th Annual 3 G 2001 2 Nice, 2001 May 23 nd Nice 3 G 2001 – 23 -05 -01 / Mobile Future / Jv. K – sba 4

Jacob van Kokswijk, Senior Analyst & Strategic. Imagineer of Cap Gemini Ernst & Young forecasts towards a mobile as underwear in ‘The Future Of Mobile Communications’. 45 amazing minutes of Imagineering and Forecasting before the final bell rings. Due to possible copyrights to distribution, the photographs and sounds in the live presentation are cutted out in this file. Nice 3 G 2001 – 23 -05 -01 / Mobile Future / Jv. K – sba 4

The Hell of the Bell Alexander Bell made at least 1 fault: he connected an alarm bell to his phone. For hundred years people will interrupt when they hear a phone alert signal. Or the vibration alert let people rise and run, like they need a rush to the toilet. Please switch off your mobile phone during this presentation ! Thanks on behalves of all delegates. Nice 3 G 2001 – 23 -05 -01 / Mobile Future / Jv. K – sba 4

3 days with 3 g legs crossed We passed in three days: Key Drivers & The Market Pricing & Billing for 3 G Investment & Finance Services & Applications Business Opportunities Panels: Creating smart 3 G devices Attractive Applications for 3 G Developing 3 G Value Chain Nice 3 G 2001 – 23 -05 -01 / Mobile Future / Jv. K – sba 4

• 3 days with 3 g legs crossed A Triptych in Third. G Three days of baby-talk… Everyone is presenting here their fictive 3 G success story, even without any survived service or system. Everyone is asking for ‘proved technology’, but why three days of presenting new equipment, solutions and service-concepts, without any ‘proved business’. Everyone is talking about the consumer, but nobody really has a presentation where the consumer talks. Everyone is searching for the killer application, but nobody has the guts to kill their application providers. Everyone is looking here to each other, wishing and hoping some one else has the brilliant idea of this century. Nice 3 G 2001 – 23 -05 -01 / Mobile Future / Jv. K – sba 4

• 3 days with 3 g legs crossed We arrogantly thought that we could dictate the consumers needs and necessaires 3 g Market Misunderstandings: • ‘The customer is King’. That customer is your consumer. Not you! Also the Customer wanna be like you. The Customer decides about Personalizing his Customer Relation. • People change earlier by Accepting their Strong and Weak Points, than by Forced Seek for other Habits or other Personality. • Safely and Trust are the Basic Needs. Convenience and Coverage are the Basic Necessaries. Feelings of unsafely paralyse. Nice 3 G 2001 – 23 -05 -01 / Mobile Future / Jv. K – sba 4

• 3 days with 3 g legs crossed We lost control of the consumers and the auctions, because 3 G was still technology driven 3 g Mazlov Misunderstandings: • Consumers are human and expect first Connectivity, Coverage and Care; secondly Confidence and Convergence; when those are realised, Convenience and ‘Easy of Use’ could follow. • Unfamiliarity with the practice reduces trust. • Ignorance of the danger increases the anxiety. • Human is leading, technology is bleeding Nice 3 G 2001 – 23 -05 -01 / Mobile Future / Jv. K – sba 4

• 3 days with 3 g legs crossed We paid too early and too much for a licence to exploit a technology that isn’t ready yet Operators are crying about the high licence costs, but didn’t they show the public how good business GSM was? And which attractive niches could be brought by UMTS? Governmental auctions only reflect the exposure of the operators… Remember: 3 G has not been developed for the customers needs, but for the operators capacity shortness 3 G wasn’t technology revolution, neither innovation Nice 3 G 2001 – 23 -05 -01 / Mobile Future / Jv. K – sba 4

Is innovation revolutionary ? locomotive electricity ocean steamer vacuum cleaner telegraph airplane radio television atomic fusion mobile phone Nice 3 G 2001 – 23 -05 -01 / Mobile Future / Jv. K – sba 4 Martin Cooper

Accident by 3 g_aps Signal operators first tried to warn the driver, but 27 -03 -2001 can’t find his mobile-number. Delayed, they forced other operators to stop the other train, but misuse in communication. Cutting power to the line to trigger the emergency brakes on both trains, failed by misinterpreting the network diagrams. Nice 3 G 2001 – 23 -05 -01 / Mobile Future / Jv. K – sba 4

If we can’t precure such an serious accident… Consumers first want to be safe, healthy and accepted. Fat applications like video and multimedia will lose out to thin, text-based applications. Users will demand content and services that complement the primary function of their device and provide timely information, enable simple transactions, and are locationrelevant. Nice 3 G 2001 – 23 -05 -01 / Mobile Future / Jv. K – sba 4

• 3 days with 3 g legs crossed 3 G could be successful, but now and in this way Forrester predicts that successful mobile data applications will be: 1) timely; 2) simple; and 3) location-based. Location-based services are the potential boom. Later this year, US wireless operators will begin to conform with phase 2 of the FCC's enhanced 911 initiative, which mandates increased precision in automated location identification of an emergency call from a mobile phone. Carriers that implement a networkbased solution will be required to locate 67% of 911 calls within 100 meters and 95% of calls within 300 meters. Carriers that opt for a handset-based solution must locate 67% of calls within 50 meters and 95% of calls within 150 meters. Carriers must begin selling locationenabled handsets by October 1, 2001. Nice 3 G 2001 – 23 -05 -01 / Mobile Future / Jv. K – sba 4

The Innovated Industry of Future Freakers, Trend Trippers and Wealth Watchers “The practice of dividing the world up into a list of trends might at first seem a little too arbitrary. Its purpose, however, is not to render life simplistic or superficial, but to establish a categorical foundation on which a greater depth of knowledge can be built. ” - John Naisbitt & Patricia Aburdene - Megatrends 2000 Nice 3 G 2001 – 23 -05 -01 / Mobile Future / Jv. K – sba 4

The Innovated Industry of Future Freakers, Trend Trippers and Wealth Watchers Short term-forecasts tend to be dull and obvious, long-term forecasts provocative and unreliable". (Nigel Calder Technopolis 1969) So… why all those forecasts, in stead of reviews to learn lessons from the past? Is it that we like heaven more than dead? Nice 3 G 2001 – 23 -05 -01 / Mobile Future / Jv. K – sba 4

The Innovated Industry of Future Freakiers, Trend Trippers and Wealth Watchers Technologic Finalism Believable future-vision is: • Reduction of Complexity Present Innovation as simple as possible; • Praise the Advantages to the Skies Boost all global, central, extended, extreme advantages of the new service or product. • Techno Optimistic Talks all problems away to the future. Talk • Dragging and Bragging Copy sheets and slides of others; Pronounce frequently Gartner, Forrester, Ovum, IDC , etc. Nice 3 G 2001 – 23 -05 -01 / Mobile Future / Jv. K – sba 4

The Innovated Industry of Future Freakiers, Trend Trippers and Wealth Watchers Big Blind Business The Business of Future-vision is: • Conferences Commuting In a country of blind, the one-eyed is king; the others make a trip around congresses. • Concept Competition By absence of vision on the board level, engineers are expected to present one. • Dooming Delay Scenario’s Press the governments to decide now, to subside tomorrow and to think about later. • Virtual Virile Voting organizations For every question a dot org ; for every standard a voting lobby mechanism. Nice 3 G 2001 – 23 -05 -01 / Mobile Future / Jv. K – sba 4

The Innovated Industry of Future Freakiers, Trend Trippers and Wealth Watchers Forecasting or Gorecasting To get a Forecasting based Future-vision: • Multiply the successes, negotiate the inaccuracies Present ambitions in stead of questions. • Blast Booming Curves Use upwards graphics, diagrams and researchresults, doesn’t matter what. • Shop and Show your ‘network’ Subscribe to all analyst’s newsgroups, and forward frequently the highlights. • Copy and Distribute relevant publications Expectations of tomorrow are the Policies of today. Nice 3 G 2001 – 23 -05 -01 / Mobile Future / Jv. K – sba 4

COMMISSION OF THE EUROPEAN The Introduction COMMUNITIES of Third Generation Mobile Communications in the EU: State of Play and the Way Forward. Brussels, 20. 3. 2001 Commission recalls the great economic and societal potential that future wireless services will offer. COM(2001)141 final. Despite the current uncertainties of the markets, it should not be forgotten that 3 G is built on very strong foundations and that in the foreseeable future it is the only viable, widely supported common platform for all broadband mobile Internet applications. 3 G will offer users a new quality of wireless services based on global roaming capability: personalised services, transaction services, mobile data transmission, and location-based services. For these reasons, all concerned actors need to work together to tackle outstanding issues and concerns raised by the introduction of wireless data services in the European Union. Et cetera. Nice 3 G 2001 – 23 -05 -01 / Mobile Future / Jv. K – sba 4

COMMISSION OF THE EUROPEAN COMMUNITIES And what did the Commission really do? …: • Leaving the G 3 auctions behind us • Starting a Task Force for IPv 6 • Saying OK to Sharing of Antenna sites / antennas • Sharing of the not-intelligent Network-parts • Pushing the Euro Governments to new broadband services • Copying the US Innovation successes to own territories, like the Brussels-based Starlab • Starting the Digital Broadcast auctions. Nice 3 G 2001 – 23 -05 -01 / Mobile Future / Jv. K – sba 4

Evolution of mobile from 1 G to 4 G Worldwide we are still using 1 G, building 2 G, testing 2 G+, developing basics of 3 G, and also talking about 4 G in 2008? Amazing… Nice 3 G 2001 – 23 -05 -01 / Mobile Future / Jv. K – sba 4

1938 – 1973 -– 2001 1938 – 1973 2001 Nice 3 G 2001 – 23 -05 -01 / Mobile Future / Jv. K – sba 4

• The evolution of mobile from 1 G to 4 G The Battle of the Generations Technology Driven Nice 3 G 2001 – 23 -05 -01 / Mobile Future / Jv. K – sba 4 Service Market Driven

• The evolution of mobile from 1 G to 4 G The Battle of the Generations Backwards Compatible Inter-network Roaming Inter-system Roaming Nice 3 G 2001 – 23 -05 -01 / Mobile Future / Jv. K – sba 4

GPRS as Ga. PRS 05/2001 Patrick Leleu (Bouygues): Due to the lack of sufficient technology, UMTS delays for 2 years. Nice 3 G 2001 – 23 -05 -01 / Mobile Future / Jv. K – sba 4

Practice makes Perfect … • Call back for GPRS devices in UK • Call back for UMTS devices in UK (Is. Man) • Call back for IMT-2000 devices in Japan • Call back for W-CDMA 1 x devices in Japan • Worldwide Headaches for Java-enabled handsets • Struggling for UMTS start up in Korea • Struggling with UMTS field trials in France • Struggling with inter-network roaming in Sweden • Delay for Do. Co. Mo, Vodafone and many others • None national coverage until 2005 Nice 3 G 2001 – 23 -05 -01 / Mobile Future / Jv. K – sba 4

• The evolution of mobile from 1 G to 4 G 3 g makes Practice Perfect ? Still technical difficulties with: Handsets Coverage-inconvenience Network-synchronisation IP implementation Inter-network Roaming Data speed (Max. approx. 300 k. B/s) Different protocols in Europe, Japan and US Nice 3 G 2001 – 23 -05 -01 / Mobile Future / Jv. K – sba 4

• The evolution of mobile from 1 G to 4 G 3 g as Smart Smock, 4 g as Bionic Buddy 3 g Devices: Toys for boys, pearls for girls… Does anyone wonder about the relation between fashion and mobile? Look to Asians, all the same in hear, length and colored eyes, That region is going blond, and burgundy and auburn and chestnut. Where people try to differentiate themselves… Girls now use hear dye, colored lenses and platform-shoes. The diffusion of mobile phones should continue by following that fashion twist. A 4 G Device will be an personalized IP-version of 3 G, but 100% individual owned and managed. Nice 3 G 2001 – 23 -05 -01 / Mobile Future / Jv. K – sba 4

4 G and others are attacking the Mobile Operators Scenarios for the Wireless Landscape around 2007 will give an overview of competing technologies for mobile data infrastructure evolution 2003 -2010. The trade-off between bandwidth and mobility & coverage will have an impact on terminals, usage patterns and market positioning. Technologies will competing in wireless data infrastructure and this presentation will cover the different strategic models for technologies, including GSM/GPRS, 3 G, W-LAN, Optical Wireless, Digital TV, All-IP, satellite and OFDM. 4 g = wireless broadband IP. The built-in intelligence allows the system to simultaneous offer fixed wireless DSL, portable wireless DSL and full broadband revenue opportunities in a single basestation and management framework. Nice 3 G 2001 – 23 -05 -01 / Mobile Future / Jv. K – sba 4

• The evolution of mobile from 1 G to 4 G The final bell for the Intelligent Networks 4 g devise will be individual and completely independent of propriety networks 4 g has Speech-, Handwriting- and Handicap recognition 4 g devices are also game-consoles, pluriform machinecontrols and operator-terminals Intelligence moves from network to both ends: § Smart Device, with all personalized adjustments § Learning Portal, CRM based, with Artificial Intelligence Nice 3 G 2001 – 23 -05 -01 / Mobile Future / Jv. K – sba 4

Development of Communication Providers as next generation Service Enablers Repositioning of e-banks, e-banks content, entertainment and content service providers Nice 3 G 2001 – 23 -05 -01 / Mobile Future / Jv. K – sba 4

• Development of communication providers as next generation service enablers Repositioning of e-banks, e-banks content, entertainment and content service providers Disney Now Money items: Costs of transactions Used Content-/ Service Micro Payments Interest Investments Nice 3 G 2001 – 23 -05 -01 / Mobile Future / Jv. K – sba 4

• Development of communication providers as next generation service enablers Repositioning of e-banks, e-banks content, entertainment and content service providers Disney Next Money items: Transactions Licences Content Almost all Payments Interest Investments Nice 3 G 2001 – 23 -05 -01 / Mobile Future / Jv. K – sba 4

• Development of communication providers as next generation service enablers Repositioning of e-banks, e-banks content, entertainment and content service providers Future Money items: Transactions Content Priority Usage Context Location All Payments Interest Investments Nice 3 G 2001 – 23 -05 -01 / Mobile Future / Jv. K – sba 4

• Development of communication providers as next generation service enablers Repositioning of e-banks, e-banks content and entertainment to full service communication providers Content, Context, Location, Transaction, Communicating Services, Enabling Services, Insurance, Congierge & Personalized Services, Brooking, Collecting, Delivery, Transport, Billing, Micro- and Macro-payments Nice 3 G 2001 – 23 -05 -01 / Mobile Future / Jv. K – sba 4

Business before Pleasure Hints & Kinks Try to Survive under the Load of 3 g licence fees Business Plans for the next Network investments Delivery of adequate 3 g devices for the trials GPRS as useful leg up to 3 g for the next 10 years Site- and Network sharing to get National coverage Cooperate or Fight to reach the global Top Ten Marketing “refresh” to find the Customers needs Do not believe in Killer App’s; trust in CRM Focus to the Personal Communication Centres Meets the needs of the changing world… Nice 3 G 2001 – 23 -05 -01 / Mobile Future / Jv. K – sba 4

Nothing Seek, Nothing Find Was the timing of 3 G OK? What are we looking for? The Subscribing Customer !? Ultimate ubiquity and Intimate Utility Flexibility of Implemented Solutions Adequate Coverage and reach How can we reach Guaranteed Service Quality Is there better than WAP? Or… Shall we position GPRS as the 3 -times faster WAP? Multi-media Messaging will follow up SMS to be the major driver for person-to-person communications Experience gained with GPRS applications today 3 G is optimised for offering services in the IP world Nice 3 G 2001 – 23 -05 -01 / Mobile Future / Jv. K – sba 4

• Development of communication providers as next generation service enablers Blasting the Boarders between telco’s, cellco’s, cableco’s & ISP’s In future, there will be only space on earth and air for a handful Full Service Communication Providers. Nice 3 G 2001 – 23 -05 -01 / Mobile Future / Jv. K – sba 4

Mend or End In future, only Full Service Communication Providers will survive. Only 10 of worlds Incumbents will survive when converged communication goes global. More mobiles than Subscribers mean that the customer wants to switch more networks; the Italian trend of multiple SIM’s per user confirms that opinion. In future, the device will be users individual terminal to different networks, machines and systems. Sophistic Providers will succeed. Lazy Providers will end. Nice 3 G 2001 – 23 -05 -01 / Mobile Future / Jv. K – sba 4

• Development of communication providers as next generation service enablers Lurkers versus Leaders What is your Mission? Mission Control? Mission Vision? Mission Missed? Nice 3 G 2001 – 23 -05 -01 / Mobile Future / Jv. K – sba 4

Might is Right proved that not the Best System wins, but the most aggressive Marketing. WAP proves that simple GPRS and EDGE will lose when the aggressive Marketing of UMTS starts. The success of i-Mode is not only the Japanese culture of simple picture- and game loading but also the technical basement: i-Mode uses HTTP in a ‘always on’ packet switched transmission, HTML in a simple version and many Icons for operating. The disaster of WAP proves that WDP, WML and key operating aren’t customers choice. VHS UMTS only succeeds when it follows the customers basic needs and necessaries. Nice 3 G 2001 – 23 -05 -01 / Mobile Future / Jv. K – sba 4

Customers Culture Shock Volume growth, Distributed live and Just-in-time economy force a change of the users culture. The old physical Stream-Thinking changed to new Network-transaction Thinking. Information on one moving document changed to Information, anywhere and anytime, for anyone. Agents, Dealers and Suppliers are upgraded from stock holders and distributors to opinion holders and consultants of knowledge intensive products. New marketing mix of product, promotion, price, privacy and protection. Customer databases in each enterprise will be transformed to self-tuning databases, when the customer makes his/hers profile available. Nice 3 G 2001 – 23 -05 -01 / Mobile Future / Jv. K – sba 4

3 G’s threat to traditional banks, billers, binders and brokers The Boundaries between the Cellco and local Banks, Billers and Barbers change incredible when the Operator comes very nearby them, using the Location Based Services, the micro and macro Mobile Payment and Personalized Consumer Tuning. Nice 3 G 2001 – 23 -05 -01 / Mobile Future / Jv. K – sba 4

Location Based Services Most operators does not realize what the potential of this new service is. Most vendors are only looking to their own propriety equipment and applications. A large chance that – the same with SMS – others will set up this new service and the operator gets only some revenues of the airtime / traffic. Look to the consumers behaviour: his/hers local view and interest. Look to the link between marketing-tools, locational services and mobile payments. (see, buy and pay!) Look also to the link between automotive-services, locational services and the residential services. Nice 3 G 2001 – 23 -05 -01 / Mobile Future / Jv. K – sba 4

Mobile payments as revenues Less than 10% of mobile users want mobile payment Only young, well-educated, male technology enthusiasts Short-term revenues (2001 -2005): • Messaging & Notification (sending images and tunes) • Location based services • Mobile Content payment Middle term revenues (2005 -2009): • Personal tuning of services • Automotive services (‘the second home’) • m. PDA services (e. g. stock-refill) Nice 3 G 2001 – 23 -05 -01 / Mobile Future / Jv. K – sba 4

Mobile payments as revenues Long-term revenues (after 2008): • Integrated Mobile lifestyle services • Full secured Micro and macro payments • Software downloads; remote devise management Main reasons to accept mobile payment services: • For high-income, career-motivated optimists (m: 35 jr): like timesaving technologies: extra personal time • For low-income, career-motivated optimists (m/f: 27 jr): like new gadgets that resemble and impress his peers • For entertainment-motivated optimists (SMS-users): like to add some fun to your day (and buy more) Nice 3 G 2001 – 23 -05 -01 / Mobile Future / Jv. K – sba 4

Free mobile… How can you expect that a consumer do pay for a new mobile? Getting one (by subsidy) gives many profits: it’s a new, latest model; it’s for free, and it has a new number (so it leaves spam behind you). Nice 3 G 2001 – 23 -05 -01 / Mobile Future / Jv. K – sba 4

The Next Gen Bonus Benefits 2000 We learned our Kids to continuous collect bonuses and items in your inventory as much as you can. 1980 Is it unusual that they now collect the same mobile offers ? Want next gen ? Think next gen ! Nice 3 G 2001 – 23 -05 -01 / Mobile Future / Jv. K – sba 4

Trying too to tug together ? Network (Qo. S) Billing factory Customer Care Content integrators Etc. Service development Marketing Discovering a new world is not the same as backpacking your house, family and friends. Is there any mobile operator who designed mservices themselves? Nice 3 G 2001 – 23 -05 -01 / Mobile Future / Jv. K – sba 4

Enterpreneur or Entrepreneur Mobile Operators should Host all regular processes, Collect all data and Concentrate on m-Business. Are you an Entrepreneur, or are you doing m-business by pressing the ‘ENTER’ key? Use the strategic information of your network and backoffice, like traffic, usage, payment, location, et cetera, to design and (let) develop new services, to follow the market. Nice 3 G 2001 – 23 -05 -01 / Mobile Future / Jv. K – sba 4

Share, Shame or Shape a Bank? Operators start already with partnering for: SMS-services Antenna (site- and antenna-sharing) Networks (only the non-intelligent equipment) Security Location based services Mobile Payments Are you joining colleague operators in buying your e-Bank ? , … Is one of the Banks your next Partner ? , or do you shame your Bank for the transaction fees ? Nice 3 G 2001 – 23 -05 -01 / Mobile Future / Jv. K – sba 4

Tit for Tat See the boarders Micropayments between banks, e <10 Euro -banks, i-banks, cellco’s and venture capitalists Banks will only survive with e-/ i -transactions Cellco’s will only survive with forward loans and investments of the banks. Macropayments Take your part !! Forwardpayments >10<1000 Nice 3 G 2001 – 23 -05 -01 / Mobile Future / Jv. K – sba 4

No Pay, No Play ? A Customer wants playing before paying, at least paying during playing Cellco, service provider and content-holder want paying before playing Customers Loyalty is generated by good contact and fulfilment of needs and let the customer feeling safe in the environment Investments in the Customers Relation will be honored by trust in the relation. Investments in Customer Relation Building will be honored by capital venturist’s trust. Nice 3 G 2001 – 23 -05 -01 / Mobile Future / Jv. K – sba 4

Do anyone know the consumer ? The customer knows you. He or she is looking for a relationship… like a consistent and familiar place, with a simple and intuitive control of all personalized services, tailored to him or her. Know your customer as your consumer: Be straightforward, honest, dynamic, simple and refreshing. So your customer could trust you! Nice 3 G 2001 – 23 -05 -01 / Mobile Future / Jv. K – sba 4

The Hour of Power Mobile information needs are based on Mazlov’s fundamentals of fulfilment of needs and feeling safe in the environment of – Family and friends – Community, clubs and tribes – Employment Mobile information needs are inextricable bound with the context of – Location – Event/moment – Personal needs Nice 3 G 2001 – 23 -05 -01 / Mobile Future / Jv. K – sba 4

Look before You Leap Mobile information basic needs are life services, such as – automatic updated personal directory – voice controlled scheduler – actual traffic & transport information – headlines of financial and banking info – sports & lifestyle – news, weather & public scandals – entertainment, managed by the user – shame & blame Nice 3 G 2001 – 23 -05 -01 / Mobile Future / Jv. K – sba 4

Show the company team spirit to the consumers Every year a take-over, fusion, rebranding et cetera does not give good feelings to the consumers. They think they pay for that corporate rubbish. At least they will expect that again and again labours will be fired and executives will become rich by getting options. Be a strong team. Show that team. Like A-TEAM. Customer Care is only 100% OK when none of the subscribers complains about the bill anymore. And if you are a CEO… handle your company as your child. Nice 3 G 2001 – 23 -05 -01 / Mobile Future / Jv. K – sba 4

Examining the Cummy Cutters and Tummy Tuckers Handle a company as your child. Reorganisation and Redesign of enterprises are mostly arranged and leaded by cost cutters, using a sharp knife or slicer to cut out all exorbitant costs. Most of the cutters don’t have any feeling for the cultural basement of an enterprise, and leave the wounded company with a gash behind. The best employees are gone, the lessers are demotivated. After that process a tycoon is hunted to get the bloody organization on track in the right direction. Tummy tucking will be Better for the Restart of a company, because only the extra fat is cutted-out. After the operation the wound is invisible stitched and the employees could be proud on their new face and image. Nice 3 G 2001 – 23 -05 -01 / Mobile Future / Jv. K – sba 4

New Bricks, Old Clicks A Cumulating Cutter won’t look to integration with multimedia and broadcast, unless that is cheaper. A Tummy Tucker will see that future as a Redesign of the company. Messages, Notifications, Targetgroup Broadcasting, Audio- and Video-on-demand, Personalized Data, Software downloading, … all new services, but from different backgrounds and disciplines. Still, 85% of all traffic is voice. Mobile operators does not have any experience with interactive television, live radio or multi-played games. Implementation of Television and Internet is a difficult task. Video on demand is out of scope, caused by a lack of standards and bandwidth. Who wants to decide about one standard out of HAVi, UPn. P, DVB-MHP, OSGI or Open TV? Nice 3 G 2001 – 23 -05 -01 / Mobile Future / Jv. K – sba 4

Tricky Terminals contra Nasty Networks Till better times, be clear about congestion. Devices are getting smarter in their userinterface, but stay dummy as Network. Terminal. They simulate being smart in connecting too, but aren’t. That’s tricky for users imagination and mobile’s goodwill. Mobile and “passed” Fixed Networks are getting more and more heavily used, are sometimes bad managed and have a lot of connection failures. Be clear about that. Use bonuses for avoiding the rush hours. Nice 3 G 2001 – 23 -05 -01 / Mobile Future / Jv. K – sba 4

Customers Expectations Customers Loyalty and Understand, promise, deliver and care Living and merchandizing in a world of (r)evolution Some figures… Nice 3 G 2001 – 23 -05 -01 / Mobile Future / Jv. K – sba 4

Customers Expectations Customers Loyalty Age / % of expectations in mobile technology Nice 3 G 2001 – 23 -05 -01 / Mobile Future / Jv. K – sba 4 and

Customers Expectations Customers Loyalty and Short time Market view: Customers Attention to 3 G To early launching is waste of money. Nice 3 G 2001 – 23 -05 -01 / Mobile Future / Jv. K – sba 4

To be or not to be ? … that’s no question for marketers Finally β Developed by Researchers Expected by Consumers Expec tation push t o / pil n tio ova nn I Made by Vendors Time Nice 3 G 2001 – 23 -05 -01 / Mobile Future / Jv. K – sba 4 Range of lesser acceptance

Loyalty Building Process Incorporates Behaviors And Attitudes Behaviors and attitudes reinforce each other to grow loyalty Willingness to be inconvenienced i nc re as es Refer Lo ya lt y Personal investment Act Trust Visit Banner ad prompts a visit Source: Forrester Nice 3 G 2001 – 23 -05 -01 / Mobile Future / Jv. K – sba 4 Customer values relationship so much that she ignores competitors ’ better prices Customer feels others would benefit from a similarly positive experience Increased use of the site leads to personalization, making it harder to defect Customer believes that the product will be delivered in a timely fashion Well-designed site creates a positive experience

Loyalty Building Process Incorporates Behaviors And Attitudes Behaviors and attitudes indicate loyalty Indicators Visit: Customer returns to a company’s store or site Act: Customer does something at the company’s store or site Examples Recommendations • Comes back to shop again • Track repeat visits and clickthroughs with cookies or tools • Accesses company like Web. Trends through multiple channels • Track purchases with CRM tools • In lieu of CRM, use “virtual points” by Netcentives to track online behavior Refer: Customer advocates a company • Purchases • Registers • Signs up foremails • Personalizes the site • Tells others • Forwards content or suggests purchases via email Trust: Customer places confidence in a company • Believes in company • Feels transactions are protected Personal investment: Customer integrates company into her life • Feels connected to company • Prefers company to competitors Offline tools: • Attitudes measured primarily offline with recall and satisfaction studies Willingness to be inconvenienced: Customer pays or goes out of way to use the company • Would drive farther or pay more to use company Source: Forrester Nice 3 G 2001 – 23 -05 -01 / Mobile Future / Jv. K – sba 4 • Track referrals with viral marketing software from Kefta or recommendations with Epinions Online tools: • Administer electronic surveys from Satmetrix • Conduct recall studies with Double. Click Diameter service ’s to measure brand affinity and satisfaction

Promotions Tools Help Change Behaviors And Attitudes Vendors Promotion Behaviors and attitudes influenced Sweepstakes Inspire nonpurchase behaviors like registration, referrals, and using more content Coupons Provide incentives for more expensive or cross-channel purchases Discounts Encourages incremental purchases Membership programs Rewards for purchase and nonpurchase behavior Source: Forrester Nice 3 G 2001 – 23 -05 -01 / Mobile Future / Jv. K – sba 4

Loyalty Data Helps Prospect, Retain, And Win Back Customers Source: Forrester Nice 3 G 2001 – 23 -05 -01 / Mobile Future / Jv. K – sba 4

• The evolution of the communications market beyond the introduction of 3 G Mazlov’s Marketing Nice 3 G 2001 – 23 -05 -01 / Mobile Future / Jv. K – sba 4

Self-actualization is no fame or fortune. Wealthy, honoured, or celebrated people might reach selfactualization, but most people who have reached highest level of happiness are unknown beyond their circle of family, friends & community. Societies develop when people reach a particular high level in Maslow's hierarchy. Once people meet their physiological needs and they feel safe, they begin to develop a culture and advanced civilization. Then they are open to handy services.

The Battle between Technology, Marketing and Reality m Nice 3 G 2001 – 23 -05 -01 / Mobile Future / Jv. K – sba 4 log ica l ba se Coverage, Connectivity, Customer Service Phy Convenience & Confidence sio Sa fet y ve Convergence Lo Es Ease of Use Maslow tee Free S Ac elf liz tua ati on MA RK ET IN GP US H community

The Battle between Technology, Marketing and Reality Any time m Nice 3 G 2001 – 23 -05 -01 / Mobile Future / Jv. K – sba 4 l ba se Coverage, Connectivity, Customer Service sio Phy Convenience & Confidence log ica fet y Sa Convergence ve Es 2001 Lo Ease of Use 2005 Maslow tee Free 2010 S Ac elf liz tua ati on implantate

The Battle between Technology, Marketing and Reality Sh 2001 Convergence Convenience & Confidence Ign ori Wi ng thd raw Reg al res sio n Ease of Use 2005 Kokswijk ng Free 2010 ifti implantate Eg otri pp ing Any time The fall into ignoring Coverage, Connectivity, Customer Service Nice 3 G 2001 – 23 -05 -01 / Mobile Future / Jv. K – sba 4

The Battle between Technology, Marketing and Reality Any time implantate 2010 Free Any where, Any way Ease of Use Convergence 2005 Convenience & Confidence 2001 Coverage, Connectivity, Customer Service Selfactualisation Esteem Love Safety Psychiological Basic Needs Nice 3 G 2001 – 23 -05 -01 / Mobile Future / Jv. K – sba 4

TRENDs: High End mobile users like services to handle ‘things I hate to do’ and to help with ‘things I always do wrong’. Early Adopters like services to tune on ‘things I like’ and to handle ‘things I do’nt like to do now’. 4 trendy targetgroups to better tryout smart learning personalizing services: • Clever Kids to swab ‘my own fone’ • Happy Hub for clubs & communities, for sports fanatics & tribes • Seeking Seniors as Grazing Grannies • Bionic Buddy for the Towing Teeners .

• The evolution of the communications market beyond the introduction of 3 G 3 g’s Gambling Gadget Gun Don’t launch unproved technology to early… Do. Co. Mo’s slogan “The Future is Now” is now accepted by the Japanese like one of NTT’s gadgets… Nice 3 G 2001 – 23 -05 -01 / Mobile Future / Jv. K – sba 4

3 g’s Gambling Gadget Gun In the rush to find a killer app, almost every creative starts a content company. In the uncertainty to run a mobile operator in these bad times, almost every manager starts and stops et cetera new initiatives. Gadgets are OK, but providing games and gadgets have to be embedded in your business process and network, to be successful in a continuous changing world. Nice 3 G 2001 – 23 -05 -01 / Mobile Future / Jv. K – sba 4

• The evolution of the communications market beyond the introduction of 3 G The threat of the Broadcasters Digital After Eutelsat and SES/Astra, the new Digital Broadcast Ter. Satellites are soon licensed to provide Europe a converge of multicasting, multimedia and telecom. Nice 3 G 2001 – 23 -05 -01 / Mobile Future / Jv. K – sba 4 Nokia’s mediascreen, GSM uplink; 5 m. B DVBT downlink

The threat of the Broadcasters Digital Next year in many European countries the licences for Terrestrial Digital Audio (TDAB) and Video (DVB-T) Broadcasting are provided by mostly a beauty contest. With an upstream by e. g. GSM, free channels could be used for a 5 m. B downstream of cartographic maps, live music, movies and games (with 3 d-images). Nationwide coverage has already to be build for broadcast purposes and is 20% of the costs of an UMTS network. Why should a consumer waits for 3 G ? Nice 3 G 2001 – 23 -05 -01 / Mobile Future / Jv. K – sba 4

The threat of the Broadcasters Digital DVB-T is Always On, high power, downstream 5 – 31 m. B A sub-service of the Broadcast Companies Licensed by beauty contests in most countries Internet access via TV antenna for fixed and mobile Simple to realize and more efficient than UMTS Excellent and fast distribution of large files Supplementary to GSM and GPRS Much faster to set up a Euro nation wide coverage Not suitable for synchronized voice communication The End of the Single Service Mobile Providers. Nice 3 G 2001 – 23 -05 -01 / Mobile Future / Jv. K – sba 4

The Future of Mobile Communications Operation Match for the Operating Systems To avoid crashes and reboots, focus on the better operating systems. Match them. At least, try to get one platform to manage. Nice 3 G 2001 – 23 -05 -01 / Mobile Future / Jv. K – sba 4

• The Future of Mobile Communications Operation Match for the Operating Systems Solaris passes for really professional use Microsoft's component based NT/Win 2 K. Linux gives management problems with all those. rpm’s AND a slow file system. Challenges grow for Wind-river systems (Vx. Works), especially for embedded integrators. Sun’s Java has good tools to develop, like a perfect memory leak detector and access checker, but the develop tools are too expensive to expanse this OS to a common platform. For PDA’s a continuing fight exist between MS Windows CE, Epoc and Palm’s OS. Nice 3 G 2001 – 23 -05 -01 / Mobile Future / Jv. K – sba 4

Achieving real convergence through designing a multi-sense portal for 3 G operators and service providers The evolution of the mobile PDA’s Nice 3 G 2001 – 23 -05 -01 / Mobile Future / Jv. K – sba 4

• Achieving real convergence through designing a multi-sense portal for 3 G operators and service providers Return of the Pick Panther, (r)evolution in network design prepaid postpaid prepaid Portals Content Cash-/coffeemachine Game-console, Secure Networks, fixed, wireless, others Operator-terminal e. g. cable prepaid m. PDA Individual owned Nice 3 G 2001 – 23 -05 -01 / Mobile Future / Jv. K – sba 4 postpai d fixed Portals Content

• Achieving real convergence through designing a multi-sense portal for 3 G operators and service providers Swoop Separate Senses Marketing shouts: “Accessibility of Anyplace, Anytime to Everything. ” and “Spontaneous Use and Low Barrier to Entry of Global, Wireless, Interoperable, Broadband Networks. ” That is not so easy made as you think…. Nice 3 G 2001 – 23 -05 -01 / Mobile Future / Jv. K – sba 4

Accessibility Anyplace, Anytime to Everything. Spontaneous Use and Low Barrier to Entry of Global, Wireless, Interoperable, Broadband Networks. THINGS TO THINK ABOUT l Connected Process Design l Multi-protocol Integration l Multi-terminal Integration l Multi-sense Integration l Chained security l Integrate & Operate Exchanges l Assimilation to open software, like Java Nice 3 G 2001 – 23 -05 -01 / Mobile Future / Jv. K – sba 4

Accessibility Anyplace, Anytime to Everything. Spontaneous Use and Low Barrier to Entry of Global, Wireless, Interoperable, Broadband Networks. THINGS TO THINK ABOUT l Local Privacy rules and habits l Global means not uniform, neither unisex l l Adapting to cultures, habits, languages and currencies Confirmation to local rules, standards, measures and laws l Adjusting to communities and human trends l Fit easily to sexes, ages and regular handicaps l Fine-tuning to individual needs and preferences Nice 3 G 2001 – 23 -05 -01 / Mobile Future / Jv. K – sba 4

Accessibility Anyplace, Anytime to Everything. Spontaneous Use and Low Barrier to Entry of Global, Wireless, Interoperable, Broadband Networks. The multi-terminal environment requires a constant re-purposing of applications and content Nice 3 G 2001 – 23 -05 -01 / Mobile Future / Jv. K – sba 4

• Achieving real convergence through designing a multi-sense portal for 3 G operators and service providers Convergence as Cash Cow Mobile Makes Your Live Easy Think about convergence as service… Such as directory services, presentation of caller’s name in display, in stead of nr. Et cetera Nice 3 G 2001 – 23 -05 -01 / Mobile Future / Jv. K – sba 4

Icons! No Names or Numbers Human learned tones and icones first; Navigating is easier with names than by numbers; ICANN: mobile-name = number-rows; Forrester: each time pressing a key to a service will halve the number of users; Converge-Portals like Bango. net will be temporary; Gartner: m. PDA’s will soon organize the users connections and supply the URL directory function. Nice 3 G 2001 – 23 -05 -01 / Mobile Future / Jv. K – sba 4

Towards the mobile as underwear. . . The Future of Mobile Communications There is lot of new technology, some of them are really scaring… But remind that the consumer expects safety and security first. Customer Care as second. Nice 3 G 2001 – 23 -05 -01 / Mobile Future / Jv. K – sba 4

Dear or Fear By combining EMG and EEG-brain signals, one day we might attain something similar to silent speech recognition. Neuro electric technology uses, might include control of advanced robotic manipulators and exoskeletons, enabling silent speech "synthetic telepathy" with machines. Using the same powerful pattern recognition techniques to include brain signals. see demo on www. nasa. gov/ Nice 3 G 2001 – 23 -05 -01 / Mobile Future / Jv. K – sba 4

Speak or Leak Voice Portals are slown down. The human voice as browser has not been attractive enough to realize a separate world of Voice Portals. Best chances for Nuance (by Marketing) and Philips (by Technology). Voice recognition technology is still developed and getting better. Next generations also integrate grammar- and summarizing techniques. Handwriting recognition techniques are developed also continuously, e. g. at Samsung, Sony and in Scandinavian lab’s. Iris and Fingerprint verification technology booms in Japan, US and Europe, to be the winner in the Security Race for UMTS and Safe Internet. In 2013 a Robot will achieve the same number of neurons at a human being. Nice 3 G 2001 – 23 -05 -01 / Mobile Future / Jv. K – sba 4

Tricks and Trends Hobby hopping is a new consumers trend. You need to understand those trends. It’s entertainment, like adventure games. Also the same with new messaging… All those hypes could only be profitable for the mobile operators, if they: - open their networks at maximum for young entrepreneurs against a profit-percentage; Or - change their organisation and processes dramatically to be able to follow the market Nice 3 G 2001 – 23 -05 -01 / Mobile Future / Jv. K – sba 4

• Towards the mobile as underwear. . . The Future of Mobile Communications The Bionic Buddy as Universal Human-Machine Interface Individual owned m. PDA Combination Of Bluetooth, Wireless LAN and GPRS Personal Default Tuning and Security box Terminal to operate machines, PC’s, etc. Console for games and Entertainment cable mobile fixed Residential Automotive Nice 3 G 2001 – 23 -05 -01 / Mobile Future / Jv. K – sba 4 Portals Content

All Humans are Different So… all Mobile Consumers are different ! Nice 3 G 2001 – 23 -05 -01 / Mobile Future / Jv. K – sba 4

The Last Lesson You promised the consumer ‘anytime, anywhere, anyway, anyhow’ et cetera. But you can’t deliver that for years! Say Sorry to the Customer. And make on G 2+ all other features you promised too. You can enhance those when – in about 4 to 5 years – G 3 is ready. In the mean time, listen to consumer, get some confidence, and the next time you deliver what you promise. Nice 3 G 2001 – 23 -05 -01 / Mobile Future / Jv. K – sba 4

Cap Gemini Ernst & Young is a leading consulting and IT services company Our credentials Around 60, 000 specialized people Full local capability with global reach Account-centric organization Sector know-how From strategy to outsourcing Integrated offerings Nice 3 G 2001 – 23 -05 -01 / Mobile Future / Jv. K – sba 4 Our differences A truly multicultural group Our thinking is not dominated by a single country (or continent) perspective We equally master strategy AND technology Both are needed to win in the network economy Single-minded focus on delivery OTACE - On Time and Above Client Expectations Only published delivery track record

Cap Gemini Ernst & Young delivers a complete and integrated set of services Strategy Consulting Business Solutions Consulting Strategy & Transformation Customer Relationship Management Supply Chain Management Technology Operate Tech Consulting Application Mgt Infrastructure Mgt Bus. Process Mgt Advanced Development & Integration Support Services Extended Enterprise Applications/ERP Network Integration Solutions B 2 B Marketplaces, Dare. Step (User-Centered Solutions), m-Commerce Nice 3 G 2001 – 23 -05 -01 / Mobile Future / Jv. K – sba 4

Nordic S. Europe UK TELECOM MEDIA NETWORKS High Growth Business Germany Life Sciences & Chemicals France Fiancial Services Benelux Energy & Utilities Asia Pacific Manufacturing High Tech & Transport Americas Consumer Porducts, retail & Distribution Cisco joint venture enhance our ability to provide end-to-end client solutions 7, 000 systems integration and management consulting experts worldwide focused on communications consulting & integration

TELECOM MEDIA NETWORKS (TMN) is an established global leader Leadership Position The E&Y merger makes us one of the world’s largest business consulting and systems integrators for communications Globa reach, with over thirty locations in the US, Europe, and Asia Revenues (2000) approaching 1. 4 billion euros Over 30% growth annually over past 5 years Dedicated pre-packaged solutions Almost 7, 000 dedicated systems integration and management consultants Long-term Commitment to the Industry 30 -year track record in the communications industry Serving 80% of the world’s top fifty communications companies Over 2, 400 projects delivered worldwide to wireline, wireless, ISPs, IXCs, and broadcast operators Nine R&D and innovation labs (Atherton, Boston, Dallas, Paris, London, Munich, Singapore, and Utrecht). Broad portfolio of partners

TELECOM MEDIA NETWORKS combines geographical reach with capabilities breadth TMN Global Business Development AMERICAS ASIA PACIFIC BENELUX CENTRAL EUROPE Network Infrastructure Solutions Strategic Business Consulting FRANCE Nice 3 G 2001 – 23 -05 -01 / Mobile Future / Jv. K – sba 4 NORDIC SOUTH EUROPE UK

Our Specialty Services Lines serves all content and transport players process and systems areas Network Infrastructure Content Design u Build u Operate u Billing & Customer Admin. Operation Support Service fulfillment u Service Assurance u Pricing u Collection u Rating u Invoicing u Payment u Customer Relationship Management Contact centers u One-to-one marketing u Self care u 3 G Mobile Broadband Media Nice 3 G 2001 – 23 -05 -01 / Mobile Future / Jv. K – sba 4 Digital Content Management e. Services Production u Portals u Edition u Content u Storage aggregation u Distribution u Interactive u Rights services Managementu Directories u Messaging u Customers

Solution Sets are the go-to-market components of the Service Lines STRATEGY CRM BILLING OSS E-SERVICES DIGITAL CONTENT NETWORKING & OPERATIONS TELCO-IN-ABOX ADVANCED CALL CENTRE SELF-CARE Example of Solutions CLEC LAUNCH KENAN-CLARIFY BSS METASOLV IMPLEMENT. IPVPN MGT x. DSL MGT BROADBAND CABLE MGT 3 G STRATEGY 3 G LAUNCH WAP/GPRS BILLING. UNIFIED COMMUNICATIONS GPRS/UMTS PORTAL-TO-GO MGT IMPLEMNT. NETWORK GAP ANLAYSIS NOC IN-A-BOX Nice 3 G 2001 – 23 -05 -01 / Mobile Future / Jv. K – sba 4

The Alliance portfolio encompasses major application areas Customer Communication Interface Customer Services Customer Relationship Management Billing & Customer Admin. Customer Acquisition Customer Retention Business Intelligence Billing Product Catalog Interconnec t Wholesale Fraud Service Activation Provisioning Operations Support Services & Products Nice 3 G 2001 – 23 -05 -01 / Mobile Future / Jv. K – sba 4 Billing Data Collection Service Management Network Surveillance On-line Information Services Accountin g Human Resources Service Quality Enhanced Voice/Data Services Networks Sales IT Management Enterprise

We serve 80% of the top 50 telecoms and media players world-wide ISP MEDIA WIRELINE WIRELESS

No e-businesswithout integrators i-forecasting without analysts m-system without strategics c-vision without imagineers No i-forecasting without analysts No e-business without strategics No m-system without integrators Nice 3 G 2001 – 23 -05 -01 / Mobile Future / Jv. K – sba 4

` Thank U jacob. van@kokswijk. nl Nice 3 G 2001 – 23 -05 -01 / Mobile Future / Jv. K – sba 4