A Project Management System Based on SRI Early Alert System (SEAS) Tom Boyce Director of Knowledge Development Artificial Intelligence Center SRI International Menlo Park, California boyce@sri. ai. com NSP Seminar April 26, 2001
Today and Tomorrow n Today: John Chambers, CEO, Cisco SRI International n Tomorrow: Systems Inc. l The opinions on which decisions were based and the l “I can now close my books in 24 evidence that supported those hours. I’ve known for a month what opinions will be as readily my earning are for this weekend. I available as the data know my expenses, my profitability, summarizing the resulting my gross margins, my components. financial performance. What people haven’t got yet is that this will be the biggest payback l It will be possible to review how application of the Internet. ” opportunities were missed, how threats were averted, how “Because once I have my data in that projections were made, how format, every one of my employees assessments of progress were can make decisions that might have made, and if best practice was/is had to come all the way to the being followed. president. And after the quarterly l It will be possible to record and close, an individual product-line communicate how decisions manager can see exactly what the are made that determine the gross margins are on his or her future success of a project or a products. ” company. Source: “The 21 st Century Corporation, the Creative Economy”, Business Week, 21 -28 August 2000 2
What’s New? ? SRI International n Question: What new technology can provide a better solution and why is that important? 3
DARPA’s Project Genoa is sponsoring the development of SEAS n SEAS: SRI Early Alert System n SEAS initial development sponsored by Statoil Early warning tool for project management l Prototype application conceived and developed (1989 -1990) l n Development under Project Genoa l Being generalized and applied to crisis warning for national security l Multi-year effort (began late 1997) l SEAS converted to a web-based client -server architecture incorporating user driven navigation and visualization l Version 4. 1. 5 on line l Field deployment summer of 2001 4 SRI International
Key SEAS Differentiators SEAS n Structured Argumentation (opinion) l Externalization and transparency of thinking and ideas l Improves rigor of analysis l Speeds analysis l Rapid comprehension and comparison n Corporate Memory (best practice) l Repository of opinions and evolution of thinking, not just access to facts l Premise decisions are grounded on opinions n Collaborative Environment (communication) l Asynchronous co-authoring and critical review l Use of best practice as established by others l Simultaneous access, across all browser clients, with little or no systems integration 5 SRI International
Structured Argumentation n Structured arguments & templates n n n record analytic products and methods Templates structure and guide analytic thinking encouraging higher fidelity reasoning Cascaded templates support deeper reasoning where the analyst determines that it is desirable Structured arguments are easily communicated, explained, and compared Structured arguments record lines of reasoning allowing users to drill down to supporting documentary evidence, its relevance, the answers it induces, and the rationale for those answers Graphical depictions of structured arguments speed comprehension and comparison 6 SRI International
Corporate Memory n A knowledge base of analytic n n n products (arguments), analytic methods (templates), indexed by the situations to which they applied Arguments are the opinions that drove decisions Templates capture best practice Expanded by analysts as a byproduct during productive use of the tool rather than being required before the tool becomes useful Queries against corporate memory retrieve arguments/templates that were applied to similar situations Summaries of retrieved arguments/templates allow one to quickly understand the thinking of the past and how it might apply to the present 7 SRI International
Collaboration n Web server architecture l Simultaneous access l Across all browser clients l Little or no systems integration n Published arguments/templates are guaranteed to be both stable and persistent l l The audience has simultaneous read access The co-authors have simultaneous write access, while unpublished, & read access thereafter n Memos attached to arguments/templates provide a means for users to communicate asynchronously l critiques, instructions, to-do, . . . 8 SRI International
SEAS Version 4. 1. 5 is Currently Operational and Accessible via the Internet SRI International Historical Trend WWW Browser Prediction Decision Making WWW Browser Collaborating with Historical Team Historical Arguments/Templates WWW Browser WWW SEAS Server Corp. Memory 9 WWW Browser Collaborating with Current Team Current Arguments/Templates
SEAS Applied to Project Management: Illustrative Cases Case 1: R&D Projects Case 2: Capital Projects
Managing Projects by “Looking Forward through the Windshield” SRI International “Driver checklists” for assessing project outlook are developed from past experience of what went well and what went wrong. Technical Approach Staff Key Outlook Areas Contractors Schedule Value Creation PROJECT Cost ATTENTION OK 11 DANGER
Case 1: R&D Project Portfolios are SRI Inherently Risky; Some Projects will Fail International Effective Project Management Contact with Customer & Market Terminate or Redirect 12 Commercial Success
Case 1: Checklists for R&D Project Assessment SRI International Based on 100’s of past projects n Dimension 1: Project Management n Dimension 2: Project Results n n SCHEDULE OUTLOOK? l 1. 1. 1 COMPLETED ON SCHEDULE? l 1. 1. 2 REMAINING ON SCHEDULE? l 1. 1. 3 SUPPORTING EFFORTS? BUDGET OUTLOOK? l 1. 2. 1 COMPLETED ON BUDGET? l 1. 2. 2 REMAINING ON BUDGET? l 1. 2. 3 CONTINGENCIES? TECHNICAL APPROACH OUTLOOK? l 1. 3. 1 TECHNICAL INNOVATION? l 1. 3. 2 PROTOTYPE OPERATIONAL? l 1. 3. 3 TECHNICAL PROBLEMS? RESOURCES OUTLOOK? l 1. 4. 1 STAFF? l 1. 4. 2 EQUIPMENT AND SERVICES? l 1. 4. 3 FUNDS? n n 13 END USE COST OUTLOOK? l 2. 1. 1 COST REQUIREMENTS? l 2. 1. 2 COSTS WITHIN PLAN? l 2. 1. 3 COSTS COMPETITIVE? END USE PERFORMANCE OUTLOOK? l 2. 2. 1 PERFORMANCE REQUIREMENTS? l 2. 2. 2 PERFORMANCE WITHIN PLAN? l 2. 2. 3 PERFORMANCE COMPETITIVE? END USE MARKET OUTLOOK? l 2. 3. 1 USED AS PLANNED? l 2. 3. 2 BENEFITS UNCHANGED? l 2. 3. 3 RETURN ON INVESTMENT? CONTACT WITH CUSTOMER? l 2. 4. 1 CONTACT WITH MARKETING? l 2. 4. 2 CONTACT WITH OPERATIONS? l 2. 4. 3 RELATIONSHIP WITH OPERATIONS?
Case 1: R&D Project Management SRI Checklist Converted to SEAS Template International 14
Case 1: Project Results Checklist Converted to a SEAS Template 15 SRI International
Case 1: R&D Project Illustrative Situation n n SRI International Situation: R&D project to develop to commercial product to be produced by Electronic Materials Division. Project is nearing completion. Month 10 SEAS Report: Project leader assesses outlook for project success based on startup of project. l Answers to most questions indicate “green” (OK) condition: “on track” l Answers to 1. 1. 2 REMAINING ON SCHEDULE question and 1. 2. 1 COMPLETED ON BUDGET question indicate “yellow” (caution) condition: “project leader will handle” Month 11 SEAS Report: Project leader assesses out look for project success based on 2 nd month of project. l Answer to 1. 2. 1 COMPLETED ON BUDGET question remains “yellow”: project leader still working to resolve the situation. l Answer to 1. 1. 2 REMAINING ON SCHEDULE question goes from yellow to “red” (early alert) condition: “project leader requests help to resolve the situation. ” Month 12 SEAS Report: Project leader assesses outlook for project success based on 3 rd month of project. l Answer to 1. 1. 2 REMAINING ON SCHEDULE question goes from “red” to “green”: “project leader with the help of others has resolved the situation. ” l Answer to 2. 2. 3 PERFORMANCE COMPETITIVE question goes from “green” to “yellow”: “project leader has a new problem that he will handle. ” 16
Case 1: R&D Case Illustrative SEAS Monthly Reports Month 10 Report Starburst Internal Project Management Effectiveness Outlook Month 11 Report Starburst Summary Table Time Remaining End User Results Satisfaction Outlook 17 International Month 12 Report Starburst Summary Table Time Remaining SRI Summary Table Time Remaining
Case 1: R&D Project Illustrative. Situation Drilldown Example for Month 11 18 SRI International
Case 2: Capital Projects Encounter Risks During Every Phase Use history from past projects (what went right and what went wrong? ) to develop forward looking checklists for the project team Owner Requirements Owner Satisfaction Basic Detail. Feasibility Project Engin- Engin & Study Definition eering Procure. Project Outlook Checklists During Phases 4 & 5 Home Office Engineering Outlook 19 Fabricat. Comm& Erect. ission Site Construction Outlook Tech Support SRI International
SEAS Template for Capital Project Assessment SRI International Checklists based on 100’s of past projects n Phase 4: Engineering Outlook? n Phase 5: Site Construction Outlook? n SCHEDULE OUTLOOK? l 1. 1. 1 MILESTONES ON SCHEDULE? l 1. 1. 2 PROCUREMENT LEAD TIME? l 1. 1. 3 CRITICAL PATH RELATIONSHIPS? BUDGET OUTLOOK? l 1. 2. 1 LABOR RATES & AMOUNTS? l 1. 2. 2 MATERIALS & SERVICES? l 1. 2. 3 ESCALATION & INFLATION? PERMITS AND CONTRACTS OUTLOOK? l 1. 3. 1 PERMIT TIMING? l 1. 3. 2 CONTRACTOR SCOPE & COST? l 1. 3. 3 CHANGE ORDERS? EXTERNAL RELATIONS OUTLOOK? l 1. 4. 1 REGULATORY? l 1. 4. 2 COMMUNITY? l 1. 4. 3 LABOR UNIONS? n SPECIFICATIONS COMPLETENESS OUTLOOK? l 2. 1. 1 ENGINEERING SPECIFICATIONS? l 2. 1. 2 PERFORMANCE SPECIFICATIONS? l 2. 1. 3 QUALITY ASSURANCE & INSPECTION? FIELD RESOURCE READINESS OUTLOOK? l 2. 2. 1 LABOR WORK RULES & STRIKES? l 2. 2. 2 EQUIPMENT & CONSUMABLE DELIVERY? l 2. 2. 3 FABRICATION OF CONSTRUCTION AIDS? FIELD ENGINEERING OUTLOOK? l 2. 3. 1 SHOP DRAWING ERRORS? l 2. 3. 2 PROCEDURE CERTIFICATIONS? l 2. 3. 3 CHANGE ORDERS? HEALTH, SAFETY & ENVIRON OUTLOOK? l 2. 4. 1 WORKPLACE HEALTH & SAFETY? l 2. 4. 2 H, S&E AT COMMISSIONING? ? n n n l 20 2. 4. 3 H, S&E POST COMMISIONING ?
Case 2: Capital Project Illustrative Situation n n SRI International Situation: Capital project to develop petrochemical processing plant near a refinery. Project is just starting. Month 1 SEAS Report: Project leader assesses outlook for project success based on startup of project. l Answers to most questions indicate “green” (OK) condition: “on track” l Answers to 1. 4. 1 REGULATORY RELATIONS question and 2. 4. 2 PROCEDURES CERTIFICATION question indicate “yellow” (caution) condition: “project leader will handle” Month 2 SEAS Report: Project leader assesses out look for project success based on 2 nd month of project. l Answer to 1. 4. 1 REGULATORY RELATIONS question goes from “yellow” to”green”: project leader has resolved the situation. l Answer to 2. 4. 2 PROCEDURES CERTIFICATION question goes from yellow to “red” (early alert) condition: “project leader requests help to resolve the situation. ” Month 3 SEAS Report: Project leader assesses outlook for project success based on 3 rd month of project. l Answer to 2. 4. 2 PROCEDURES CERTIFICATION question goes from “red” to “green”: “project leader with the help of others has resolved the situation. ” l Answer to 1. 1. 2 PERFORMANCE SPECIFICATIONS question goes from “green” to “yellow”: “project leader has a new problem that he will handle. ” 21
Case 2: Capital Projects Illustrative SEAS Monthly Reports Home Office Outlook? Month 1 Report Starburst Home Office Outlook? Month 2 Report Starburst Site Outlook? Summary Table Home Office Engineering Site Construction Summary Table Regulatory Certification 22 Home Office Outlook? Month 3 Report Starburst Site Outlook? Summary Table Performance Specifications Certification SRI International
Case 2: Capital Project Illustrative Situation Drilldown for Month 1 Argument: Capital Project Home Office Illustrative Case: Month 1 REGULATORY: Are regulatory relations satisfactory? None of the regulatory relations are according to plan Few of the regulatory relations are according to plan Most of the regulatory relations are according to plan Almost all of the regulatory relations are according to plan A new director of the state energy regulatory agency has been appointed; his energy conservation ideas, which may apply to our project, are stringent. 23 SRI International
Conclusions
SEAS Provides Structured Arguments n n Multiple-choice question l answered directly by the user International Question with Amplification Rationale l Reason the user answered as they did Documentary Evidence l Documents whose relevance to the question has been recorded Multiplechoice Answers Rationale Exhibits l SRI Documentary Evidence Documents that are potentially relevant to answering the question Exhibit 25
SEAS Provides a Corporate Memory SRI International Multidimensional argument summary New information available n Discovery tools are used to create cascaded arguments, with the analyst choosing where more in-depth reasoning is warranted n Cascaded arguments communicate complex analytic reasoning - not just data Unidimensional argument Iran price oil U. S. tanker OPEC producers Cascaded arguments Supporting documents Supporting critical path analysis 26 Supporting query structure
SEAS Provides a Collaborative Environment SRI International n Custom argument Criteria summaries allow users to quickly determine What the argument is about l What drives the conclusion l Summary Drivers 27
SEAS Represents the State of the Art in Web-Based Project Management SRI International Creating a transparent and learning project team environment Anticipating and solving problems to keep projects on the road to success ATTENTION PROJECT DANGER OK Solution: By Project Team - Contingency Plan - Re-Planning Not Required 28 Solution: With Senior Executive - Possible Re-Planning - Approved by Executives
A Project Management System Based on SRI Early Alert System (SEAS) Tom Boyce Director of Knowledge Development Artificial Intelligence Center SRI International Menlo Park, California boyce@sri. ai. com NSP Seminar April 26, 2001
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