A Glimpse of the Future Presented to ISHC

A Glimpse of the Future Presented to ISHC, San Diego 2005 by Kenneth R. Greger CEO & Managing Director Greger/Peterson Associates, Inc. © 2005 Greger/Peterson Associates, Inc.

Before considering the future, it never hurts to reflect back on the past… Greger/Peterson Associates, Inc.

"We don't like their sound. Groups of guitars are on the way out. " Decca Studios when turning down the Beatles in 1962 Greger/Peterson Associates, Inc.

”There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home. " Ken Olson, President of Digital Equipment Corp 1977 Greger/Peterson Associates, Inc.

To appreciate how Talent, Skill Sets & Recruiting will change One must first appreciate how the Hotel Industry will change… Greger/Peterson Associates, Inc.

Of course, there will still be a room Greger/Peterson Associates, Inc.

And PDA check-in is a likely reality Greger/Peterson Associates, Inc.

But gaining access to the room may involve… Biometric Identification Systems Greger/Peterson Associates, Inc.

Or RFID (Radio Frequency Identification) Greger/Peterson Associates, Inc.

And then there’s the e. Fridge (Even programmable by management for Happy Hour!) Greger/Peterson Associates, Inc.

Sophisticated Data Warehousing will be employed Greger/Peterson Associates, Inc.

Interoperability will be crucial, but will remain a challenge Amadeus Cendant Pegasus Sabre Distribution Telephony Avaya Cisco NEC Nortel Siemens Hotel Operations Entertainment Comcast LG Lodge. Net On. Command Philips Point of Sale Info. Genesis Micros Par Building Controls Honeywell Samsung Siemens Greger/Peterson Associates, Inc.

Blogs will have achieved a certain level of influence • Labor • Guests • Vendors • Etc. Greger/Peterson Associates, Inc.

And there will be much more… • Rooms that are light, noise and temperature sensitive in order to create a sleep profile tailored to each guest. • Alarm clocks that control the increase of light in a room rather than emitting a tone. • Windows replaced by guest-selected computer-generated scenes to create a more restful, relaxing in-room environment. • In-room virtual entertainment centers. Greger/Peterson Associates, Inc.

• Room configurations better suited to the future traveler profile, particularly in the U. S. where more than half the population is expected to be 65 years or older by 2010. • Electronically controlled mattresses to provide guests with the right level of firmness and support. • In-room exercise amenities and nutritionistdesigned menu personalization. Greger/Peterson Associates, Inc.

And let’s not overlook Outer Space! Greger/Peterson Associates, Inc.

So what’s the impact of all this on Talent Skill Sets & Recruiting? Greger/Peterson Associates, Inc.

Talent - Potential shortage of human capital, and a future filled with retirees: • Between 2005 and 2015, # of people 65 and older is expected to increase 26% • 40 to 54 yr-olds will shrink by 5% • Americans 25 to 39 will grow by only 6% - Entrepreneurs will start younger, potentially a negative impact to employers - Mediators will be utilized to facilitate generational harmony Greger/Peterson Associates, Inc.

Talent - Dual income households will push for more flexible scheduling alternatives to balance work and personal lives. - A battle will rage between the public and private sector for workers: - As early as 2006, 31% of the federal government’s workforce of 500, 000 will be eligible for retirement - Retirements will sweep away the most knowledgeable workers in both sectors over the next 7 years - Rising healthcare coverage in the private sector may shift the hiring advantage to the government - More women will be graduating and ascending to top management; wage gap shrinks Greger/Peterson Associates, Inc.

Skill Sets - Frontline Staff: It’s still a people business - little will change, but all must be technologically savvy and cross-trained accordingly. The need for multi-lingual capability will be much more prevalent. - Executive Committee: The use and understanding of cutting edge technology - including information technology - will be critical to all functions, and to guest experience and personalization. Multi-cultural experience and sensitivity will be essential. Leadership and mentoring skills will be key to developing future executives re: mitigating the predicted crisis of human capital. Overall agility required. Greger/Peterson Associates, Inc.

Skill Sets - Corporate: Leadership and Strategic Planning; Information Technology; Brand Direct Marketing, including data capture and warehousing re: guest preference information and use of sophisticated CRM strategies; Human Resource recruitment and retention (including healthcare expertise); Multi -national legal and business experience; Labor Law and negotiating skills; M&A expertise and Investment Banking on a global scale; Security/Privacy expertise; Financial Planning, Reporting and Controls; Spa and Wellness; Engineering and Technology, Purchasing/Outsourcing, Telecommunications, Entertainment, R & D and more. Greger/Peterson Associates, Inc.

Recruiting - Corporate Recruiters will emulate the NBA and start recruiting from high schools - Online auctions for temp employees re: just-in-time workforce objectives - Resumes will go high tech and video-conferencing will be ubiquitous - The forthcoming human capital shortage will create a seller’s market like that of the late 1990’s - Potential new business opportunity: Retirement consulting Greger/Peterson Associates, Inc.

Recruiting As for retained executive search, this headhunter feels pretty comfortable moving into the future… Greger/Peterson Associates, Inc.

Recruiting After all, there are some things technology will never replace! Greger/Peterson Associates, Inc.

Greger/Peterson Associates, Inc.

Research Resources (partial list) Challenger, James E. Workplace Predictions. California Job Journal, January 2004. Collins, Patrick. Space Hotels - Civil Engineering's New Frontier. 2002. Fast Forward: 25 Trends That Will Change the Way You Do Business. Workforce, June 2003 Hotel Goofs and Gaffes; Sheraton Hotels and Resorts Launches First Ever Written Service Guarantee Alleviating Top Ten List of Travel Woes. Starwood Hotels & Resorts, September 2002. Hotel Room of the Future. Hotel Online, April 27, 1999. Hotel Technology Next Generation (HTNG) Selects 21 Companies to Participate in Designing the Future of Hotel Guest Room Technology. Hotel Online, October 2004. Major Forces Driving Change in the Multinational Hospitality Industry. International Hotel & Restaurant Association, March 2003. Enabling the next generation of hospitality innovation. Microsoft Smarter Hospitality. Architecture White Paper, November 2004. Patton, Carol. Future Shock. Workindex. com, May 2003. Rice, Douglas: Systems Interoperability: Taming the Interface Beast (Hotel Technology Next Generation) Rice, Douglas Systems Interoperability: Taming the Interface Beast (Hotel Technology Next Generation) Schweyer, Alan. Take a Look in the Mirror. Mansueto Ventures LLC. Stanford, Kelly. High Wired: The Hotel Room of the Future. Hotel Online, March 2004. Top 10: Hotels Worldwide. IGN Entertainment, Inc. Virgin Galactic. virgingalactic. com. Greger/Peterson Associates, Inc.