61 st Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference New Orleans 2007

61 st Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference New Orleans (2007) Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecasting System (ATCF) Interagency Success Joint Typhoon Warning Center Steve Barlow National Hurricane Center Chris Sisko

ATCF - Interagency Success Part I: DOD • Operational at the JTWC since 1987 • Unique / robust system used in the Tropical Cyclone analysis and forecasting process • Fundamental backbone for creating and delivering critical information and products (directly or indirectly) to DOD customers in a timely manner (Internet, JMV, GCCS-M, DMS, WPMDS/GTS) • ATCF is an Inter-Departmental Effort and a National Asset

ATCF is a Multi-Agency Effort NWP Models (FNMOC, NOAA, …) Tracks TC Analyses Consensus (NOAA, CIMSS) Fixes (NRL) ATCF Intensity Models Obj Aids Warnings (NOAA/CIRA) Satellite Products Bogus (NRL/FNMOC) TCFAs Wind Radii (NOAA/CIRA) Model Trackers Wind Probabilities (NOAA/CIRA) (JTWC) Statistics Database Courtesy of the Naval Research Lab

Current ATCF Installations Navy sites, NOAA sites NMFC/JTWC NMFA laptop atcfp 2 atcfp 4 atcfp 1 atcfp 3 Shared data NHC NRL NCEP CPHC Courtesy of the Naval Research Lab

View Fix Data / Satellite Overlay: 22 W Nov 01, 2006 0038 Z SSMI 37 GHz Nov 01, 2006 1057 Z SSMI 37 GHz Nov 02, 2006 1043 Z SSMI 37 GHz

Monte Carlo Wind Probabilities (Developed by NOAA/NESDIS, implemented on ATCF) 22 W: Nov 02, 2006 -Use past distributions of track and intensity errors with a prescribed wind structure to create ~1000 forecast realizations - The realizations are used to compute cumulative wind probabilities either at a point or on a grid.

Consensus Forecast Technique CONW 2007 22 W WBAI NGPI EGRI (UKMET) AVNI (GFS) JGSI (Japanese Global) -----JTYI (Japanese Typhoon) GFNI COWI AFWI TCLI (Australian TC model) CONW 2006 added ECMI CONW 2007 eliminated COWI and AFWI

Satellite-Based and Surface Data

Objective Best Track For Intensity and Wind Radii - Objective analyses used for error checking of tropical cyclone fix data and as baselines for the forecaster’s analysis - These objective analyses can be done with least squares fit or weighted average (adjustable weights for fix types and fix agencies)

New Wind Radii Forecast Dialog Wind radii forecasting can be tedious. For an intense hurricane or typhoon, the forecaster may be burdened with 40 or more wind quadrant forecasts! This new dialog should help ease the burden. Courtesy of the Naval Research Lab

61 st Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference New Orleans (2007) ATCF - Interagency Success Part II: DOC National Weather Service (NWS) National Hurricane Center Chris Sisko

ATCF - Interagency Success Part II: DOC/NOAA/NWS Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast System (ATCF) • Introduced to NHC late-80 s during IHC – operational since 1989. • Evolved over time on the following systems: PC (1989 -2000) Unix (2000 -2002) Linux (2003 Present) Web-based (future? ) • Is the “special” system or tool in hurricane operations that drives our ability to provide critical information and products (directly or indirectly).

Users DOC/NOAA/NWS n National Hurricane Center (NHC)* n Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) n Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC)* DOD/USN/USAF n Naval Maritime Forecast Center / Joint Typhoon Warning Center / (NMFC/JTWC) n Naval Maritime Forecast Agency (NMFA) n 17 th Operational Weather Squadron* * COOP Site (Continuity of Operations) – Backup Site

Users “Inter-connected” DOC/NOAA/NWS n National Hurricane Center (NHC)* n Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) n Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC)* DOD/USN/USAF n Naval Maritime Forecast Center / Joint Typhoon Warning Center / (NMFC/JTWC) n Naval Maritime Forecast Agency (NMFA) n 17 th Operational Weather Squadron* “DOC and DOD maintain separate ATCF systems”

Users continued… ATCF System is based on an “Interactive Forecast Process” The Key is SPEED or the need for SPEED! Less time doing the mechanics, more time spent on the meteorology. PAST, we required 4 hours before issuing advisory, NOW we do this in 3 hours.

Users continued… Indirect users of ATCF “Everyone” ATCF produces: • Forecast Advisories • Public Advisories • Discussion - forecaster • ICAO Aviation Warning • Position estimate • Update • Text probabilities

Users continued - everyone… ATCF provides critical data for NRL and FNMOC Tropical Cyclone Pages (Floaters/Storm Sectors) ATCF Forecaster NRL TC Page http: //www. nrlmry. navy. mil/tc_pages/tc_home. html Hawkins/Richards (NRL)

Users continued - everyone… Graphics that leverage the ATCF database or use specific ATCF data as input. ATCF best track database (post-storm analysis) NOAA/NOS – GIS Group (Gibney) Public, Private and University uses of ATCF Guidance (example provided by CSU-Vigh)

Future Direction of ATCF n Emphasis on making it a web application • NRL has produced a working prototype • Others have drafted new preliminary plans n Additional requirements (adds new challenges) • NMCI – Navy Marine Corp Internet • NOAA/NWS secure IT environment n Our goal is to continue the joint effort • Continue joint Navy/NRL NOAA/NWS exchanges • Continue infusion of important JHT work into the ATCF • Continue improving the system n n More time for the meteorology More time for critical coordination

Conclusion n The ATCF is the special tropical cyclone tool needed to provide our decision makers and end users with timely critical information This interagency success hinges on continuing the joint cooperation between DOD (USN/USAF) and DOC (NOAA/NWS)—and current fiscal environment demands unity of effort Our primary focus in this joint venture is to improve the ATCF capabilities (share new technology in order to meet our respective missions)

Acknowledgements Ø Naval Research Lab (NRL) – Monterey Ø Buck Sampson and Ann Schrader (SAIC) Ø TC Web Group Ø JTWC and CPHC (HNL) Ø NCEP Central Operations and EMC Ø GFDL (Morris Bender and Tim Marchok) Ø NHC Tech Staff Ø UKMET Office Ø USN FNMOC Ø USN SPAWAR Ø USN CNMOC Ø USN ONR Ø USAF AFWA Ø USWRP Joint Hurricane Testbed Ø So many others…

Questions or Comments?