30 th Annual Climate Diagnostic and Prediction Workshop

30 th Annual Climate Diagnostic and Prediction Workshop: Opening Remarks Dr. Louis W. Uccellini Director, National Centers for Environmental Prediction The Pennsylvania State University October 24, 2005 “Where America’s Climate, Weather and Ocean Services Begin”

Overview • Linking the Climate Test Bed (CTB) to: – Other NOAA components – Transition process from research to operations • Relationship of the Climate Forecast System (CFS) to the CTB – Status of computer support

The Path to NOAA’s Seamless Suite of Products and Forecast Services To Serve Diverse Customer Base Observe e. g. , National Association of State Energy Officials, Emergency Managers, Water Resource Agencies, … Products & Forecast Services Process Central Guidance Local Offices Respond & Feedback IBM Supercomputer at Gaithersburg, MD Computer Center Distribute Research, Development and Technology Infusion Feedback

Applying the “Funnel” to the Transition Process R&D 1 1. 2. 2 NCEP is uniquely positioned to provide an operational infrastructure for the transition process Transition from N C E P 3 research to operations/ applications 3. 2 3 4 Large “volume” of R&D, funded through AOs, Agency Labs… Smaller set of R&D products suitable for operations. 3. Systematic transition steps. 4. New products can serve diverse and expanding user community. 4 Operations 5 User Community 5. 6. Delivery to diverse USER community

Applying the “Funnel” to the Transition Process R&D 1 OGP 1. 2. 2 NCEP is uniquely positioned to provide an operational infrastructure for the transition process 3. Transition from N C E P 2 3 3 CFS research to CTB operations/ applications 4 Large “volume” of R&D, funded through AOs, Agency Labs… Smaller set of R&D products suitable for operations. 3. Systematic transition steps. 4. New products can serve diverse and expanding user community. 4 Operations CPC 5 User Community 5. 6. Delivery to diverse USER community

NCEP’s Role in the Model Transition Process EMC and NCO have critical roles in the transition from NOAA R&D to operations Observation System Effort Other Agencies & International NOAA Research R&D Service Centers EMC NCO OPS Test Beds JCSDA CTB WRF DTC JHT Field Offices EMC Life cycle Support Operations Service Centers Delivery Transition from Research to Operations Launch List – Model Implementation Process Concept of Operations Requirements Criteria Forecast benefits, Efficiency, IT Compatibility, Sustainability User

Climate Forecast System Status • Components – Atmosphere: GFS(2003) T 62/L 64 – Ocean: MOM 3 GFDL Ocean Model – Coupled once/day • Run 2 X Day out to 9 months • The website for real time data retrieval is at: ftp: //tgftp. nws. noaa. gov/SL. us 008001/ST. opnl/MT. cfs_ MR. fcst/ • The climatological data is at: ftp: //tgftp. nws. noaa. gov/SL. us 008001/ST. opnl/MT. cfs_ MR. clim/ • Complete documentation available at: http: //www. emc. ncep. noaa. gov/gmb/ssaha/cfs_data/cfs_ data. pdf

Computer Support • CFS Seasonal Operational Runs - ~10% of operational machine • Computational support for monthly forecast is in place ~ 10% of operational machine • Support for Climate Test Bed – Computational support being applied to approved projects (1/3 of “research” computer) Climate Forecast System

Issues/Challenges/Highlights • Balances between external and transitional work • Reanalysis support • Multi-model Ensemble and related application • NCEP, NESDIS, ARL will move into the NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction in early 2008