2014 International Conference on Sustainable Infrastructure Long Beach, California Climate Change Based Risk Management Approaches Used On Transportation System Assets Art Hirsch Terra. Logic Benjamin Kunstman University of Michigan November 6, 2014
Selected Quotes on Climate Change Adaptation “The United States Department of Transportation (DOT) shall integrate consideration of climate change impacts and adaptation into the planning, operations, policies, and programs”. . Ray La. Hood, Former Secretary of Transportation Pricewaterhouse. Coopers (Pw. C) has released two studies which warn the business community of impending significant risks to assets as a result of climate change. . Price Waterhouse “The area of climate change has a dramatic impact on national security. . Do. D will need to adjust to the impacts of climate change on its facilities, infrastructure, training and testing activities, and military capabilities”. Secretary Leon E. Panetta, May 2, 2012 “The idea that carbon dioxide is a carcinogen that is harmful to our environment is almost comical. Every time we exhale, we exhale carbon dioxide…Congressmen, Speaker of the House John Boehner, 2013
Purpose of Presentation • Identify pro-active climate change risk management actions and approaches • Transportation context • Risk management approaches – FHWA – United Kingdom – New Zealand • Identify proactive adaptation approaches to address future climate change risks
FHWA-Climate Change & Extreme Weather Vulnerability Assessment Framework • No regulatory driver; guidance only • Directed to DOTs and MPOs • Model based upon 2010 pilot studies – – – • • Coastal and Central NJ Oahu MPO San Francisco Pilot State of Washington Virginia DOT Gulf Coast Study Framework flexibility Stakeholder Input Incorporate into decision making/asset management Wide range of asset types
Transportation Highway Assets • • • Roadway and Pavement Culverts Tunnels Bridges Intelligent Transportation Systems Bicycle and pedestrian facilities Traffic signaling and lighting Storm water permanent features Maintenance facilities Key evacuation routes Roadside vegetation
FHWA-Climate Change & Extreme Weather Vulnerability Assessment Framework • Objective not to develop adaptation plan; to identify vulnerabilities • Past weather data limited in value to trends • Vulnerability assessment using range of model inputs; use various models • Limited on looking at community or social impacts in assessment • Limited guidance in developing adaptation strategies and plans
UK-Highways Agency Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Framework
UK-Highway Agency Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Framework • Required by Climate Change Act (2008) • Developed with agencies and stakeholders • Risk appraisal (4 criteria) – Level of Uncertainty: impact on asset – Rate of Change: asset/activity life – Severity of Disruption (recovery time) – Extent of Disruption (% network affected) • Numeric conversions/equations to vulnerability score
Vulnerability Index Calculation Vulnerability Rating • Rate of climate change (Low/Medium/High) • Severity of disruption (Low/Medium/High) • Extent of disruption (Low/Medium/High) • Uncertainty level (Low/Medium/High) Convert to numeric score High=3/Medium=2/Low=1 Final Vulnerability Index= [rate of change] x [severity] x [extent] x (4 -[uncertainty])/81
UK-Highway Agency Climate Change Adaptation Framework • Specific Options Analysis for Adaptation Strategies – Do minimum/monitor – Identify easy/straight forward actions – Update specifications and standards – Retrofit – Long term planning changes – Update standard operating procedures – Cost is considered • Emphasis on plan, program development and reporting • Clear responsibilities identified • Management involvement and direction
New Zealand Risk Assessment Process AS/NZS 4360
New Zealand Risk Assessment • 2004 Guidance Manual First Edition • All infrastructure focus • Directed to Regional Councils and local governments • Integrate with standard processes • Limited guidance on adaptation strategies development • Key climate change management; sustainability based elements (Maori kaitiaki)
New Zealand Risk Assessment • 14 weather models (2040 & 2090/1990 baseline) • Impact/consequences (scenarios) – Human safety – Economic – Social – Cultural – Environment • Communication Plan – Internal and external stakeholders
Assessment Similarities • Same basic risk assessment process • More certainty in direction of climate change than magnitude • Uncertainty should not preclude action • Made part of the normal project planning process • Iterative process • Use various models and scenarios • Some level of stakeholder involvement
Art Hirsch Terra. Logic Visit Us at www. Terra. Logicss. com
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