2013 NOS Coastal Modeling Development and Performance Office

2013 NOS Coastal Modeling Development and Performance Office of Coast Survey/Development Laboratory, Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services Jesse C. Feyen (jesse. feyen@noaa. gov) 4 December 2013 Office of Coast Survey

NOS’ Operational Coastal Modeling http: //tidesandcurrents. noaa. gov/models. html • Office of Coast Survey / Coast Survey Development Laboratory / Marine Modeling and Analysis Programs – Focused on research and development – POCs: frank. aikman@noaa. gov, edward. myers@noaa. gov • Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services / Oceanographic Division / Planning Monitoring and Analysis Branch – Focused on transition, operations, and delivery – POC: aijun. zhang@noaa. gov • Work with NCEP, particularly NCO and EMC, on operations • Collaboration with academic developers of FVCOM, ROMS, and ADCIRC models Office of Coast Survey 2

Existing NOS OFS Running on WCOSS OFS Name Model Domain NCO Implementation CBOFS Chesapeake Bay 03/2011 DBOFS Delaware Bay 03/2011 TBOFS Tampa Bay 03/2011 NGOFS Northern Gulf of Mexico 03/2012 CREOFS Columbia River 09/2012 GLOFS 5 Great Lakes 12/2010 ESTOFS Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico extratropical storm surge 09/2012 Office of Coast Survey 3

FY 13 Accomplishments • All NOS “Oceanographic Operational Forecast Systems” (OFS) transitioned to WCOSS • OFS output disseminated in SHEF format at NOS water level gauge locations • Inundation • Expanded coverage of HFIP-supported experimental tropical surge predictions using ADCIRC Surge Guidance System • East Coast and Gulf Coast coverage Office of Coast Survey 4

FY 14 Plans • NOS OFS to be transitioned to NCEP – 2 nested Northern Gulf of Mexico models: NWGOFS and NEGOFS – San Francisco Bay (SFBOFS) • Inundation – Extratropical Storm Surge (ESTOFS) – Pacific transitioned to operations – Experimental real-time tropical storm surge ensemble predictions coupled to experimental hurricane guidance Office of Coast Survey 5

FY 15 -16 Planned Implementations • NOS OFS to be transitioned to NCEP – Cook Inlet, AK (CIOFS) – Great Lakes OFS upgrades – NE Shelf/Gulf of Maine OFS (support for HAB pred. ) • Inundation – Sandy Supplemental: Development and Transition of ADCIRC Surge Ensemble for Atlantic Tropical and Extratropical Inundation Office of Coast Survey 6

Office of Coast Survey

Nested Operational Forecast Systems for the Northwest and Northeast Gulf of Mexico NGOFS Coastal/Shelf Models (Bridge between Global model and Estuarine/Bay models) Bay/Estuarine Models (high-resolution to resolve navigational needs) Operational FY 14 Q 3 NWGOFS Office of Coast Survey NEGOFS

NEGOFS Element Size: 45 m – 2160 m Vertical Sigma Layers: 20 Gulfport: 56 m – 986 m Office of Coast Survey Pascagoula: 45 – 1050 m Mobile Bay: 45 m – 1. 5 km

Sabine Neches PORTS Lake Charles PORTS Houston/Galveston PORTS Element Size: 60 m – 3. 5 km Rivers: 22 20 Sigma Vertical Layers Matagorda Bay PORTS Galveston Bay: 80 – 530 m Sabine Neches: 60 – 540 m Lake Charles/Lake Calcasieu: 70 – 560 m Office of Coast Survey

Products from NWGOFS Surface Currents Water Level Surface Temperature Office of Coast Survey Surface Salinity

Products from NEGOFS Surface Currents Water Level Surface Temperature Office of Coast Survey Surface Salinity

San Francisco Bay Operational Forecast System (SFBOFS) Horizontal Resolution: 15 m – 1500 m 20 Vertical Sigma Layers Bathymetry in meters Office of Coast Survey Operational FY 14 Q 2

Products from SFBOFS Tidesandcurrents. noaa. gov/ofs/sfbofs. html Surface Currents Water Level Surface Temperature Surface Salinity Office of Coast Survey

Products from SFBOFS Tidesandcurrents. noaa. gov/ofs/sfbofs. html Surface Currents Water Level Surface Temperature Office of Coast Survey Surface Salinity

Storm Surge Modeling Efforts • Using ADCIRC model for extratropical (e. g. , nor’easter) and tropical (e. g. , hurricane) – State of the art model in development and use by academia, private industry, USACE, FEMA, Navy – Uses large scale unstructured triangular grids with efficient localized resolution – Can combine surge, tides, rivers and wave input – Uses latest modeling physics – Surge model upgrades coordinated with NWS (e. g. , Sandy Supplemental) to augment probabilistic approach with faster, simpler SLOSH model Office of Coast Survey 16

Extratropical Surge and Tide Operational Forecast System (ESTOFS) • Computes ET surge and tides forecasting and coupling to NWS’ WAVEWATCHIII® wave model • Coastal resolution averages 3 km • Hourly output of 6 hr nowcast + 180 hr forecast 4 X per day • East Coast operational in 2012 • Pacific model in development, operational in FY 14 Q 3 Office of Coast Survey http: //www. opc. ncep. noaa. gov/ estofs/estofs_surge_info. shtml http: //slosh. nws. noaa. gov/etsurge_ESTOFS/ 17

Water Level Skill Assessment • 15 -month period (11/16/2004 2/28/2006) covers two winter seasons • GFS wind and pressure every 6 hrs Office of Coast Survey

Water Level Skill Assessment RMSE (m) go Po ca hi Puget Sd/SE AK C rt t e nl I k oo C So Cali Hawaii CO-OPS Station Number Testing showed that tidal accuracy did not improve with increased resolution, adjusted bottom friction, or increased tidal potential term. Office of Coast Survey

Water Level Skill Assessment Skill in surge WL close to goal of 0. 20 m RMSE Office of Coast Survey

Sandy Supplemental: ADCIRC Ensemble Tropical Surge Prediction • Development of operational ensemble of ADCIRC surge+tide predictions of coastal inundation for TC and ET storms • Predict tropical and extratropical inundation – TC ensemble members based on track perturbation – Potential ET ensemble members: GEFS, NDFD, NAM, ECMWF, SREF • Experimental in FY 15, Potential coverage operational in FY 16 Office of Coast Survey 21

Office of Coast Survey 22

Deliverable Modeling Products: 1. Graphics on CO-OPS Web Site: 1. Time Series Plots (24 hour nowcast and 48 forecast) of water levels, currents, temperature, salinity, and surface winds at selected locations (all PORTS and NWLON stations and more) 2. Contour and vector map plots and animation of water levels, currents, temperature, salinity, and surface winds 2. Model data set on OPe. NDAP and NOAA’s WOC: v station/point Net. CDF files (6 -minute output): time series model nowcast and forecast at selected stations for water levels, currents, temperature, salinity, surface winds v Field/gridded model output Net. CDF file (hourly output) v 2 -D water levels and surface winds, v 3 -D currents, temperature and salinity on every model grid. Office of Coast Survey

Objectives of NOS Operational Forecast Systems • Support of safe & efficient navigation • Water levels for under-keel clearance • Currents for right-of-way, maneuverability • Emergency response • Oil spills (OR&R) • Search & Rescue • Homeland Security • For environmentally sound management of the coastal zone SST Sea Nettles Salinity • Ecological: hypoxia, HABs, pathogens, … • Marine geospatial applications Office of Coast Survey 24

Customer Feedback on OFS • MD Pilots (J. Smith) – “Pilots are delighted with the modeling, forecasting, and real time PORTS data… We do our voyage planning with a heavy reliance on CBOFS forecasting and modeling…” • DE Bay/River Pilots (S. Roberts) – “(DBOFS) allows us to identify tidal and wind conditions that may prevent the safe passage of deep loaded tankers before they are scheduled to get underway. It also allows our customers to identify conditions which may necessitate adjusting the draft of a ship to allow for less than adequate depths in advance saving them costs due to delays and aborted passages. ” Office of Coast Survey 25

Customer Feedback on OFS • USCG (A. Allen) – “… using NGOFS… to assist in the search for CG personnel lost in the crash of CG 6535 in Mobile Bay… planning underwater searches based on the bottom currents from NGOFS” • NWS (B. Schneider, WFO Portland) – “Receiving accurate model output for the Columbia River Bar and Tillamook River Bar is central to WFO Portland’s effort to improving forecasts for these areas” Office of Coast Survey 26

Experimental High Res Surge Ensemble • ADCIRC Surge Guidance System – Automated system for ADCIRC • NOAA tested in Gulf of Mexico in 2012 on experimental HFIP computer “tjet” – 5 to 10 member ensemble Model grid • Expanded coverage in 2013 to prepare for transition to operations – Tested during Karen – Output delivered via CSDL Model topobathy in Chesapeake OPe. NDAP and Viz. Tool http: //coastalmodeldev. data. noaa. gov/thredds/catalog. html Office of Coast Survey 27