266daa9ea2c33dac06e5d4aaddba9b22.ppt
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2010 Executive Team Off-Site June 15, 2010 CONFIDENTIAL
Ground Rules for Today’s Discussion • Don’t shoot the messenger • No finger pointing • It’s not about the past, it’s about the future page 1
Introduction • At our last off-site, we reviewed concerning trends in our industry and our own business and determined immediate steps we could take to offset the DVD decline • Since October, we've made progress, making difficult decisions to cut headcount and reduce our overall cost base • However, negative market trends continue to impact our business • Our profits are below the level we need to sustain the business • As a group, we need to agree on specific actions to improve profitability while protecting the creative integrity of our business page 2
Actions Taken Since Oct 2009 Executive Team Off-Site CONFIDENTIAL
Action Items from Previous Off-Site Completed – Headcount reductions – Loading OH into greenlight models – Move talent costs to post-breakeven – IT outsourced to India – Reduced Television development Discussed and/or In Progress – Implement new SPHE operating model – Bring FEARnet to breakeven (investing in linear-term) – Early Windows / Home Theater – Abolish contracts below SVP level – Reduce number of films released each year – Reduced marketing spend – Reduce film development costs – Moved shared services for Europe – Bring Crackle to breakeven – Imageworks move to Vancouver – Analyzed/validated approach to Netflix and Redbox – Reduce total capital required by our films page 4
Since our last Off-Site, SPE has executed significant headcount reductions Gross Overhead (1) Down $47 MM 3. 1% % of Revenues Down 305 employees Down 3. 8% 590 employees 7. 7% Down $120 MM 8. 0% Down 1% pts Headcount Down 2% pts Note: (1) Gross overhead is before depreciation and portion of overhead capitalized to product; Savings on a net overhead basis were $108 MM resulting in 9% savings in net overhead (from $1, 234 MM to $1, 135 MM) page 5
SPE had been greenlighting some films that were not profitable after applying operational costs Columbia Films Greenlit BEFORE January 2010 * At the time of greenlight, MGM distributed domestic theatrical. Accordingly, operational OH was applied to only SPE’s 50% share of the production cost. page 6
Incorporating operational overhead into the greenlight process has improved projected profitability Columbia Films Greenlit AFTER January 2010 Operational costs equal 25% of a film’s budgeted production cost page 7
Estimated Savings: FY 11 Slate vs. FY 04 Slate Marketing costs are continuing to decrease Inflation Adjusted Savings Actual Savings $323 % of FY 04 Mktg. Spend 11% Source: Inflation for Media based on historical data and forecasts provided by the CTMPG Media Department, Universal Mc. Cann and Magna Global. Inflation for Basics based on Consumer Price Index (CPI-U) data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Federal Reserve Economic Projections Report – January 2010. Note: Columbia FY 11 worldwide P&A estimated to be $1, 061 mil, Screen Gems worldwide P&A estimated to be $393 mil page 8
The gap between actual production costs and greenlight has narrowed Columbia Production Costs vs. Greenlight, FY 06 – FY 10 Actual / Greenlight Note: $841 MM / $760 MM $1, 145 MM / $1, 092 MM $530 MM / $483 MM $908 MM / $875 MM / $854 MM Production costs do not include co-financing benefit page 9
Box office is increasingly aligned with budget Columbia WWBO to Budget Variance, FY 06 – FY 10 Actual $1, 088 $2, 871 $1, 439 $2, 242 $2, 334 Budgeted $1, 780 $2, 569 $1, 260 $2, 346 $2, 283 page 10
In response to overall SPE economic challenges, SPT cut investment costs Note: 2 pilots remain in contention for midseason, pilot reshoots may be necessary page 11
Market Trends CONFIDENTIAL
Market trends continue to create challenges across business lines Business Segment Theatrical Production & Distribution Market Trends • Despite publicly stating costs must be managed, Studios continue to bid-up talent and production and marketing costs have not dropped sufficiently • Diminished availability of film financing with attractive terms • Franchise films remain critical to driving studio profitability • DVD new release sell-through is down 34% but seems to be stabilizing • For the first time, rental transactions and revenues are down • Catalog revenues are down double digits Home Entertainment • Shift within rental to Netflix and kiosks putting brick & mortar rentailers into bankruptcy • Brick and mortar closures reducing shelf space of WWAG and SPC titles • Ad spending is rebounding for cable and local stations TV Production & Distribution • Broadcast ad revenues rebounded in 2009; total broadcast revenues have growth potential with the addition of subscriber fees • International networks and production growing • Pay TV deals are declining in value page 13
U. S. New Release Sell-Through Performance Trends 2006 -2009 Sell Through Performance Against Box Office Across All Major Studios Quarter-on-Quarter % Change from CY 2006 to 2007 Q 1 Q 2 Q 3 2006 to 2008 Q 4 Q 1 Q 2 Q 3 2006 to 2009 Q 4 Q 1 Q 2 Q 3 2006 to 2010 Q 4 Q 1(1) Recent performance provides an early indicator that sell-through may be leveling-off Source: Notes: Nielsen Home Scan, title-level analysis, major studios include Fox, Lionsgate, Paramount, SPHE, Universal, Warner, and Disney (includes distributed lines); box office adjusted for inflation and 3 -D admissions (1) 1 Q 10: First 12 weeks, performance for titles released on or after February 9, 2010 is forecasted page 14
U. S. Sell-Through Performance By Box Office Level 2006 -2009 Retail Units Per Domestic Admission For All Genres and All Studios Change: -25% Change: -46% Change: -39% Since 2006, overall box office factors have fallen 30%; however, films at the lower end of the box office range have suffered much worse decline Source: Nielsen Notes: Films in analysis include all studios and genres page 15
U. S. Total Rental 2009 -2010 1 Q Rental Turns (Millions of Transactions) 681 -1. 3% 2009 -2010 1 Q Rental Consumer Revenues ($ Billions) 2. 0 672 +10. 0% VOD -11. 5% +9. 8% 1. 8 VOD B&M and Online -15. 1% B&M and Online -23. 9% Kiosk +81. 1% Kiosk +66. 8% 8, 613 5, 723 -33. 6% VOD Price $4. 70 $4. 69 -0. 2% Redbox Kiosks 13, 826 23, 795 +72. 1% B&M/O Price $2. 89 $2. 59 -10. 4% B&M Stores Kiosk % Txn 12% 22% +83. 5% Kiosk Price $2. 15 $1. 98 -7. 9% Netflix Subs 10. 3 MM 14. 0 MM +35. 5% Avg Price $2. 95 $2. 65 -10. 3% Source: Rentrak, Screen Digest Notes: VOD (IPVOD + Cable/Satellite VOD), Redbox kiosk, B&M store, and Netflix subscriber counts as of quarter end, B&M store count includes all chains tracked by Rentrak page 16
U. S. Physical Total Catalog (Film, TV, DTV) Sell-Through 2009 -2010 1 Q Total Catalog POS (1) (Millions of Transactions) 104 2009 -2010 1 Q Total Catalog Consumer Revenues (1) ($ Billions) 1. 3 -13. 7% -16. 7% 90 -16. 8% -20. 4% DVD +93. 5% BD % 1. 1 +56. 3% Blu-ray DVD Price $12. 13 $11. 60 -4. 3% BD Price $21. 59 $17. 44 -19. 2% Avg Price 3% 6% DVD $12. 39 $11. 96 -3. 4% Source: Nielsen Home Scan Notes: (1) Includes Theatrical, DTV, TV page 17
SPHE Catalog Performance Gross Profit Per Unit Jan Through May • • -44% Data for January through May is preliminary and is partially driven by year-to-year slate differences However, the drop is significant enough to raise concerns about market trends, including: – Heavy returns driven by market decline – Increased pricing pressure at retail, especially on Blu-ray – Increasing COGS with increasing mix of Blu-ray % Margin Notes: 46% 32% Operational data - excludes return reserve adjustments page 18
U. S. Top 25 BD New Release Titles Best Performing Blu-ray Titles Based on Actual or Projected First Eight Weeks of Sales SPE’s dollar share of the top 25 BD titles is 8% compared to 15% market share for all new releases in 2010 year-to-date Note 1: Titles include nationally projected sales through May 30, 2010. Note 2: SPHE titles are highlighted in yellow. Note 3: Box office indices have not been adjusted for changes in average ticket price but do incorporate modifications for 3 -D admissions. page 19
U. S. Top 25 BD Catalog Titles Top 25 2010 YTD Catalog Blu-ray Titles * Year to Date Performance for Catalog Blu-ray Titles through May 30, 2010 * Catalog titles are defined as titles with a street date greater than 26 weeks or titles with a source year greater than 2 years old Note 1: There are 2, 770 catalog titles released to date in 2010. Note 2: The Top 25 titles constitute 24. 9% of the Blu-ray catalog sales total in 2010. page 20
Impact on SPE CONFIDENTIAL
SPE’s overall profit remains challenged and increasingly dependent on monetizations to achieve targets SPE Overall EBIT with Monetizations Identified (1) Notes: Monetizations incl one-time events/sales of int’l networks (SET India, E!, HBO, Cinenova, Viva, TMC), GSN, Telemundo, Kirch. Media, Netflix, Bohbot, and Studio Asset FY 09 and FY 10 include restructuring charges (1) Includes $63 MM from prior MRP plus $259 MM shortfall of MPG forecast vs. prior MRP page 22
Goodwill Impairment Overview • SPE has $1. 1 billion of goodwill which was created from Sony Corp’s acquisition of Columbia Pictures and SPE’s purchase of companies for more than the fair value of the net identifiable assets of the target company • SPE determines the fair value using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model and compares the fair value to the carrying amount – If the fair value is above the carrying amount, no impairment charge is needed – If the fair value is below the carrying amount, an impairment charge will be required • If this year’s performance and projections (i. e. , MRP and budget) are below the projections used in last’s year impairment test, we are at risk of taking a sizable operating expense to write-off goodwill page 23
Actions taken since the prior Off-Site have narrowed, but not eliminated the FY 11 EBIT gap FY 11 EBIT $ MM Initial Roll-Up FY 10 CRP Savings Release Shifts Budg. Op. EBIT Restructuring Charges Other MP Challenges Monetizations (1) Budget Addt'l Monetizations Requested by Tokyo $450 Total Tokyo Request 419 $400 349 $350 $300 70 155 $250 177 $200 (23) $150 40 100 $50 $108 $0 ($50) (31) ($100) Achieving monetization target may require divesting reliable sources of income, potentially including our interest in Spider-Man merchandise and the Music Publishing catalog Note: (1) After $23 MM of restructuring charges and $3 MM of 3 D network startup costs page 24
With negative cash flow and limited access to capital, we need to carefully evaluate where we invest (1) (2) Source: SPE Finance Notes: 1. Includes 2 waytraffic acquisition 2. Includes $5 MM SEL Marketing and $54 MM Restructuring Costs 3. Includes $5 MM in 3 D Network Start-up Costs and $56 MM in Restructuring Costs. (3) page 25
Competitor Landscape CONFIDENTIAL
A review of competitors implies studio margins in excess of 10% are feasible Latest FY EBIT (1) (2) Margin 11% 15% 4% 3% 3% Note: (1) Adjusted Operating Income of $1, 117 MM as reported in Analyst day comments plus $105 MM of merger-related/restructuring charges (2) SPE information is based on FY 10 actuals Source: Time Warner Investor Day Presentations, 5/27/2010, SEC Filings and company financials page 27
Warner Bros. ’ revenue mix is similar to SPE’s although at a larger scale CY 09 Warner Bros. Revenue EBIT $11. 1 BN $1, 222 MM % Margin Note: 11% FY 10 SPE Revenue $7. 7 BN (1) $221 MM 3% (1) Adjusted Operating Income of $1, 117 MM as reported in Analyst day comments plus $105 MM of merger-related/restructuring charges Source: Time Warner Investor Day Presentations, 5/27/2010; Morgan Stanley financial model, May 5, 2010; SPE Corp Dev page 28
Comparison of Warner Bros. and SPE EBIT CY 09 Warner Bros. EBIT (1) FY 10 SPE Operating EBIT Margins % of Total 11% 50% 9% 50% 18% % of Total 3% 40% 60% Note: Margins 2% 6% (1) Adjusted Operating Income of $1, 117 MM as reported in Analyst day comments plus $105 MM of merger-related/restructuring charges Source: Time Warner Investor Day Presentations, 5/27/2010; Morgan Stanley financial model, May 5, 2010, SPE Corp Dev page 29
Warner Bros. Stated Strategy: Leadership Driven By Event Film Strategy and Scale • Build franchises and utilize competitive advantages • Maximize value through all windows • Focus on quality and cost-efficiency • Access capital through partnerships Source: Time Warner Investor Day Presentations, 5/27/2010 page 30
Warner Bros. and SPE Films with over $100 mil DBO – Last 3 Years Warner Bros. SPE Films with > $100 MM DBO CY 07 -CY 09 WB generated 94% more DBO from large films over the last 3 years Source: Box. Office. Mojo page 31
Drivers of CY 09 Film Profits – Theatrical Releases Warner Bros. & New Line $MM CTMPG & SPWAG $MM WB’s WWBO was 12% greater than SPE’s and DBO was 39% greater Source: Box. Office. Mojo, SPE Finance. * IBO for SPE territories only. page 32
Drivers of CY 09 Film Profits – Home Entertainment Releases Source: Rentrak Warner Bros. & New Line Library Size: 2, 400 SKUs Columbia & Screen Gems Library Size: 1, 600 SKUs WB Catalog is 50% larger than SPE's, which could mean $250 MM in incremental profit (based on SPE catalog and flow profit of $500 MM) page 33
WB TV Strategy • Invest in A+ talent • Maximize reach, scale and diversification of product portfolio • Expand production internationally Source: Time Warner Investor Day Presentations, 5/27/2010 page 34
Comparison of WBTV and SPT Scripted Broadcast Network Activity 2005 -2010 Network Scripted Pilot Activity and Results Warner Bros. is estimated to spend $120 MM annually in gross development or 4 x our investment after considering likely recoupments Notes: Pilot activity for Big 4 broadcast networks (excludes CW) Source: SPT page 35
Drivers of CY 09 TV Profits Network (WB 32, SPT 11) WBTV / Horizon CY 2009 SPT CY 2009 Cable (WB 10, SPT 11) Big Bang Theory (CBS) Chuck (NBC) Fringe (FOX) Gossip Girl (CW) One Tree Hill (CW) Smallville (CW) Southland (NBC) Supernatural The Bachelor (ABC) The Bachelorette (ABC) The Mentalist (CBS) The Middle (ABC) True Beauty (Bankable Prod) (ABC) Two and a Half Men (CBS) V (ABC) Vampire Diaries (CW) Beautiful Life (CW) Cold Case (CBS) Eastwick (ABC) Eleventh Hour (CBS) ER (NBC) Hank (ABC) Here Come the Newlyweds (ABC) Hitched or Ditched (CW) More to Love (FOX) Old Christine (CBS) Privileged (CW) Pushing Daisies (ABC) Terminator: Sarah Connor (FOX) The Forgotten (ABC) There Goes the Neighborhood (CBS) Without a Trace (CBS) High School Reunion (TV LAND) Leave it to Lamas (E!) Man vs Cartoon (TRU TV) Randy Jackson Presents ABDC (MTV) Dark Blue (TNT Lopez Tonight (TBS) The Closer (TNT) Nip/Tuck (FX) The Cougar (TV LAND) Trust Me (TNT) Community (NBC) Days of Our Lives (NBC) Rules of Engagement (CBS) Shark Tank (ABC) Sing-Off (NBC) The Young and the Restless (CBS) Dragon Tales (PBS) Brothers (FOX) Sit Down Shut Up (FOX) The Unusuals (ABC) Til Death (FOX) Breaking Bad (AMC) Damages (FX) Drop Dead Diva (LIFE) Hawthorne (TNT) Make My Day (TV LAND) My Boys (TBS) Newlywed Game (GSN) Rescue Me (FX) 10 Items or Less (TBS) Spectacular Spider-Man (DXD) The Beast (A&E) Source: SPT Indicates cancelled shows A significant portion of successful/returning network shows are sourced from external producers (e. g. , WB & SPE) page 36
Drivers of CY 09 TV Profits Syndication (WB 8, SPT 6) Off-Net Syndication (WB 6, SPT 2) WBTV / Horizon CY 2009 Ellen Degeneres Extra Judge Jeanine Pirro Judge Mathis People's Court TMZ Bonnie Hunt Show Tyra Banks Cold Case (TNT) Friends (TBS) George Lopez (NICK) Sex and the City (Distribution only) (TBS) Two and a Half men (FX) Without a Trace (TNT) Seinfeld (TBS) King of Queens (TBS) SPT CY 2009 Dr Oz Jeopardy Wheel of Fortune Judge David Young Judge Hatchett Judge Karen Indicates cancelled shows Source: SPT page 37
Key TV Production Deals Warner Bros. Abrams Bank/Levy Bruckheimer Burk Chulack Corddry Davola Filgo / Filgo Fleiss Heller Jinks / Cohen Johnson Kauffman Katalyst Kelley King Kohan / Mutchnick Kripke Levinson Lizer Lorre Malins Mc. G Mimoun Nader Nutter Orci / Kurtzman Pedowitz Pinkner Reiff/Voris Savage Schwartz Shephard / Robin Silver Weintraub Welling Wells Werner Wolper / Wolper SPE Barnow/Firek Berman Falls Gilligan Grodner Guarascio/Port Happy Madison Hertz Kessler/Zelman/Kessler Millar/Gough Moore Orman Raimi Sikowitz Tarses, J. Tarses, M. Tolan/Wimer Yuspa/Goldsmith Warner Bros. is estimated to spend $120 MM annually in gross development or 4 x our investment Source: SPT after considering likely recoupments page 38
Motion Picture Group CONFIDENTIAL
Sources of Motion Picture Group EBIT (In-year) ($MM) FY 07 A FY 08 A FY 09 A FY 10 A FY 11 Budget Current Year ($271) ($249) ($269) ($240) ($438) Prior Year $284 $468 $358 $336 $236 2 nd Prior Year $151 $92 $165 $156 $103 $482 $509 $410 $372 $500 Development ($98) ($73) ($69) ($121) Overhead ($175) ($186) ($206) ($182) ($164) $373 $561 $389 $320 $160 Catalog & Flow Total Notes: (5) (1) (2) (6) 1. Excludes $38 MM Kirch Media Payment 6. Excludes $7 MM restructuring charge 2. Includes $35 MM development write-offs for Spider-Man 4 ($25 MM) and Moneyball ($10 MM) 3. After reclassifying $20 MM of costs as corporate. Excludes $5 MM restructuring charge 4. Excludes $195 MM on monetizations and operating challenges 5. Flow equals EBIT from titles released 4 through 10 fiscal years prior; Catalog equals EBIT from titles released over 10 fiscal years prior ($78) (3) (4) page 40
Production and releasing investment increased through the FY 11 budget, while ultimate slate profitability declined Columbia & Screen Gems Source: SPE Finance and MPG Note: Ultimate slate profit after Ops OH assumed to be $200 mil in ’ 08, and $270 mil in each year thereafter. Note: Ultimate profit before Ops OH from FY 08 to FY 11 = $467, $266, $234, $229 Note: Ultimate profit excludes monetizations and challenges page 41
Compensation continues to exceed Columbia’s gross profit on an ultimate basis Columbia Gross Profit (1) vs. Total Talent Compensation 314 115 246 233 237 201 156 77 Gross Profit Contingent Compensation Up-Front Fees TALENT SHARE OF TOTAL AVAILABLE PROFITS (SPE GP + TALENT TOTAL COMPENSATION) 58% Source: 115% 116% 134% MPG Notes: (1) Columbia GP is ultimate profit net of financing impact, capitalized OH and operational OH. Ultimate profit before Ops OH from FY 08 to FY 11 = $401, ($ In millions) $197, $179, $161. Ops OH assumed to be $180 mil in ’ 08 and $250 mil in each year thereafter page 42
Ultimate Profit on Recent Tentpole / Franchise Films page 43
Ultimate Profit on Upcoming Tentpole / Franchise Films * Note 1 (as of 4/2010): Spider-Man 1 gross profit = $485. 9 mil; Spider-Man 2 gross profit = $303. 7 mil; Spider-Man 3 gross profit =$231. 2 mil. All figures are before Ops OH Note 2 (as of 6/2010): Spider-Man 1 gross profit = $442. 2 mil; Spider-Man 2 gross profit = $244. 3 mil; Spider-Man 3 gross profit =$159. 3 mil. All figures are after page 44 Ops OH
Recent SG films have been greenlit at margins below historical levels Screen Gems Films Greenlit AFTER Operational Costs page 45
Acquisitions EBIT, previously a growth driver, is now below peak levels Acquisitions EBIT 1 2 Started releasing more movies theatrically CAGR Average of $67 MM Acquisitions Margin 21. 9% 23. 2% 24. 1% 25. 5% Average of $82 MM 18. 6% 23. 3% 28. 0% 26. 0% 29. 1% 18. 0% 14. 5% 8. 4% 1. 7% 16. 6% Source: MPG Finance Note: Beginning in FY 08, OH moved from HE to be capitalized in product. Excludes Universal distribution deal in FY 00 -FY 05. 1. FY 07 spike due to one successful theatrical release “Facing the Giants” and carry over from FY 06 successes: “Hostel”, “The Gospel”, and “Final Fantasy” 2. Excludes Kirch. Media of $8 MM page 46
Estimated Profitability for SPA Films Source: Notes: MPG (1) 20% of production costs page 47
Television CONFIDENTIAL
SPT EBIT Note: Following amounts are excluded; ($38 mm) bad debt in FY 05, and Kirch Recovery of $25 mm and $62 mm in FY 07 and FY 08. FY 10 Restructure cost of ($10 mm) also excluded. Distribution G&A includes restated amounts in FY 04, FY 05, FY 06, FY 08, FY 09, and FY 10 of 8, 9, 9, 10, 11, 14, and 12 respectively related to US distribution, Marketing, and Research page 49
Implications and Required Actions CONFIDENTIAL
Without improvement, profits are likely to remain at roughly $200 MM Potential Risk & Growth by FY 13 $ MM FY 11 EBIT $177 Risk / Decline TV Annuities Decline (Historical decline of 7% per year) Brick & mortar rentailer bankruptcies Sell-through New Release Risk (1) Catalog / Flow from HE OH growth if 5% per year Growth Networks International TV Production M&A ("Acquired EBIT") TV Syndication Early Window / Home Theater Slate Improvements (Incl. Franchises, Ticket Prices, 3 D) Animated Profits (If still breakeven in FY 13) IT Outsourcing / Shared Services Digital Backbone Other OH Reductions Net Increase Potential EBIT by FY 13 TBD (40) (50) (20) (100) ($210) + TBD 100 30 TBD 50 25 TBD 0 10 5 TBD $220 + TBD $10 + TBD Approx. $200 MM Notes: 1. Assumes 15% decline equals $10 MM profit loss x 2 years page 51
SPE EBIT w/ All Costs Allocated (excl Monetizations and Restructuring Charges) $221 Note: (1) Excludes $14. 8 MM of restructuring (2) Excludes $30. 8 MM of restructuring (3) Excludes $4. 5 MM of restructuring (4) Allocated based on revenue; excludes $12. 8 MM of restructuring $177 page 52
EBIT Growth Required to Achieve Potential Targets FY 11 EBIT Before Monetizations, Challenges, and Restructuring Charges (1) Achieve $500 MM Achieve 10% Margin Notes: 1. HE Overhead % allocation is based on % of MPG and TV revenues recognized in HE 2. Film includes MPG, Acquisitions, SPI/SPA, Starz plus HE retained EBIT before OH + 94% of HE overhead 3. TV excluding Starz + 6% of HE overhead 4. Corporate overhead allocated based on revenues page 53
Key Questions Areas of focus and investment • Are there additional tentpole / franchise opportunities we should pursue? • Should we shift a portion of our investment in “singles and doubles” to tentpole / franchise films? • Are we utilizing our development spend on the right people and projects? • Are we investing the right amount in our TV networks? • Are we investing the right amount in our broadcast TV business? Sources of capital for investment • Do we fund new investments by reallocating capital, or do we make the case for more cash from Tokyo? • How can we better manage our cash flow? Profitability • What is the appropriate level of profitability for our business? • Are there additional steps we can take to increase our films’ revenues and decrease production, marketing and talent costs? • Are there opportunities for further reorganization and cost saving? • What can we do to improve our short term profitability, while still protecting our future? Process • How do we track our progress against the initiatives we have discussed today? page 54
Prioritizing Investment Policies and Procedures • Prioritize investment on higher margin films (higher greenlight margin thresholds) • Incorporate more aggressive HE declines in greenlights • Skew slate toward films that are less exposed to risk of declines in home entertainment • Process for managing tentpole / franchise discussions • Better cash management, including in International Production page 55
Growth Opportunities for Discussion • Secure additional film tentpoles / franchises • Invest in TV production (secure additional syndicated comedies and broadcast dramas) How do we prioritize opportunities and which will move the needle? • Launch / acquire new TV networks • Early Windows / Home Theater • Make VOD more compelling (breadth of titles, partner for better search) to shift rental to higher margin VOD • Acquire new product for TV networks (e. g. , rights to sports franchises) Are we willing and able to invest near-term EBIT for long-term profits? Are we willing to “buy EBIT” with cash? • Originals for digital networks • Acquired film product • Rent-a-system deals page 56
Increasing SPE EBIT will require accelerating profit growth FY 11 Budget Sources of Profit $ MM MPG -- Potential for Growth MP Current Year / Development MP Prior Year / 2 nd Prior Year Worldwide Acquisitions Digital Production b/f OH TV -- Potential for Growth TV - Current Series / Development Networks b/f OH International TV Production b/f OH Likely Flat to Declining MP Catalog / Flow HE - Local Acquisitions / Faith Family / Manuf Rebates TV - Annuities (Game Shows / Daytime / Seinfeld) Starz / Encore Studio Services b/f OH Total EBIT before Distribution / Corporate Overhead (1) EBIT excluding Monetizations, Challenges, and Restructuring FY 11 ($511) 339 80 25 ($67) 2 332 94 428 495 102 231 49 75 952 1, 313 (1, 135) $178 Notes: 1. Represents net overhead page 57
To improve profitability, we also need to continue to address our cost base FY 11 Budget SPE Cost Base(1) (2) Notes: 1. Excludes $57 MM of “all other” expenses 2. Represents net overhead page 58
APPENDIX CONFIDENTIAL
Sources of Leading Tentpole / Franchise Films To generate franchise hits, competing studios draw on internal assets (e. g. Theme Parks or Publishing arms) or acquire established properties (e. g. Toys, Books, Comics) Source: Box. Office. Mojo. com page 60
Sources of SPE Tentpole / Franchises page 61
FY 07 – FY 11 Columbia & Screen Gems Slate Columbia Screen Gems page 62
Estimated Profitability for SPA Films Source: Notes: MPG (1) 20% of production costs page 63
Strawman of Actions to Pursue Cost Cutting – Immediate Impact OH – Hiring Freeze Film Marketing Expense Sub-Total $33 $75 $108 ---- $55 $100 $155 3 -5% of $1. 1 BN 7. 5 -10% of $1 BN Cost Cutting – 3 -5 Years to Fully Impact P&L Film Production Expense MPG Development Sub-Total $80 $15 $95 --- $160 $20 $180 5 -10% of $1. 6 BN New Film Franchise Syndicated 1/2 Hr Comedy Syndicated 1 Hr Drama Int'l Uplift from 1 Hr. Drama Early Windows GSN Buy-up Sub-Total $40 $25 $30 $35 $20 $175 ---- $80 $35 $40 $50 $30 $285 "Like Spider-Man 4" Growth – 3 -5 Years to Fully Impact P&L Total Potential $375 -- $625 Total of Cost Cuts + 50% of Growth $4 -$6 MM per film on 12 Films Grows as amortization decreases $285 -- $485 page 64
Talent compensation structures are shifting from first dollar to post-breakeven deals Recent post-break deals include Jack & Jill, Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Just Go With It, The Green Hornet, and The Social Network Note: SPE Gross Profit excludes 3 rd party co-financing page 65
SPHE Domestic FY 05 -FY 10 2 nd Prior / Catalog / Flow Gross Profit SPHE Domestic FY 05 -FY 10 2 nd Prior / Flow / Catalog GP ($ Millions) SPHE Domestic FY 05 -FY 10 2 nd Prior / Flow / Catalog GP Margin (% of Revenue) page 66
The domestic television market is showing signs of recovery as ad revenues stabilize for broadcast networks and grow for cable and local stations Select Cable Network Revenue and Programming Expense 2009 vs. 2013 Broadcast Net Ad Revenue and Programming Expense 2009 vs. 2013 Local TV Station Advertising Revenue 2009 vs. 2013 $ in millions 11% • Net Advertising up from ’ 08 to ’ 09 • Future upside beyond ad revenue 0% from sub fees 0% 25% $126 Other $104 Other $3, 444 Fees $4, 147 Fees 32% $3, 341 $4, 347 Ads (1) Source: SNL Kagan, May 2010 Broadcast networks include ABC, CBS, Fox and NBC; Cable networks include A&E, AMC, FX Network, TBS, TNT, USA Note: (1) Local TV station net advertising revenue includes both local and national spots page 67
Scripted shows are increasing as a percentage of primetime U. S. Primetime Programming Mix by Season 2% -1% 7% Sports / News Scripted -1% -5% Non-Scripted Source: SPT Note 1: Scripted and non-scripted excludes sports and news programming (60 MIN, 20/20, etc) Note 2: Total primetime hours by network: ABC, NBC, CBS = 22 hours; FOX = 15 hours; CW = 10 hours per week) page 68
Sources of Motion Picture Group EBIT (2) Current Year Releases ($271) ($249) $917 Development OH Notes: (5) ($240) ($433) $1, 069 $932 $863 $834 ($98) ($73) ($69) ($121) ($175) Flow / Catalog / Prior & 2 nd Prior ($269) ($186) ($206) ($189) (1) (3) Current Year Releases Current year losses excluding challenges are forecast to increase significantly ($78) ($169) 1. Excludes $38 MM Kirch Media Payment 2. Excludes $195 MM on monetizations and operating challenges 3. Includes $35 MM development write-offs for Spider-Man 4 ($25 MM) and Moneyball ($10 MM) 4. After reclassifying $20 MM of costs as corporate 5. Flow equals EBIT from titles released 4 through 10 fiscal years prior; Catalog equals EBIT from titles released over 10 fiscal years prior (4) page 69
Film Development Spend, FY 05 – FY 14 page 70
Television Production and Distribution Business (1) • Annuities and Library product have declined • The decrease has been partially mitigated by decreased investment level in new product • However, shoring-up earnings requires continuing to create syndicated hits Source: SPT Note: (1) Includes: WOF, Jeopardy, Young and the Restless, and Days of Our Lives and Library product. Excludes IGT ($ In millions) page 71
Although pilots are forecasted to decrease by over 50%, SPE forecast still assumes a syndicated hit * Source: SPT Note: * 2 pilots remain in contention for midseason, pilot reshoots may be necessary page 72
SPT International Production Business SPT International Production Financial Summary FY 05 -FY 13 Source: SPT Note: FY 09 through FY 11 excludes restructuring costs page 73
Networks continues strong growth and expects to double EBIT in 3 years Networks Business EBIT (1) 26% 50% R CAG Monetizations / One-Offs FY 05: $28 MM Latin America equity swap; $12 MM Cinenova settlement FY 06: $7 MM Cinenova settlement FY 08: $33 MM HBO Asia sale; $9 MM E! Latin America sale FY 09: $25 MM Spectrum sale; $45 MM one-time HBO LAG payment to not exercise right to buy-up FY 10: $85 MM GSN /FUN transaction; $245 MM HBO CE and HBO LAG sales Source: SPT Note: (1) Excludes Crackle page 74