2009 05 12 -15 1 st TRCG Technical

2009. 05. 12 -15 1 st TRCG Technical Forum (C 2) EPS perspectives “Status of TIGGE Activities of JMA” Takuya KOMORI 1 Kiyotomi SATO 1, Hitoshi YONEHARA 1 and Tetsuo NAKAZAWA 2 1: Numerical Prediction Division, Japan Meteorological Agency 2: Typhoon Research Department, Meteorological Research Institute 1

My Lectures in 1 st TRCG Technical Forum 12 May (Tue) (B 1) EPS design, objectives and interpretation “Why we need Ensemble Prediction System for TC forecasts? ” 13 May (Wed) (C 2) EPS perspectives “Status of TIGGE Activities of JMA” 14 May (Thu) (B 2) Application for TC forecasts “How to use the products of JMA Ensemble Prediction System? ” 2 “Please feel free to ask me a question at any time in the lectures. ”

Contents • TIGGE Project – Provision of EPS GPV • How to get and use TIGGE data? – Provision of Tropical Cyclone Data • How to get and use CXML (Cyclone XML) data? • Case study from EPS Perspective – Myanmar Cyclone Nargis • Additional Case Studies – Typhoon Fengshen – Typhoon Hagupit – Typhoon Sinlaku 3

“What is TIGGE project? ” 4

Background of THORPEX • TIGGE is an acronym for “THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble“. • THORPEX is a WMO global atmospheric research program designed to: – Advance knowledge of global-to-regional influences on weather systems to lead to improved forecast performance – Accelerate improvements in the accuracy of one-day to two-week forecasts for high-impact weather, – Contribute to the development of GIFS (the Global Interactive Forecast System), etc. THORPEX : The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment World Weather Research Programme of WMO 5

TIGGE (THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble ) TIGGE is a framework under THORPEX for international collaboration in development and testing of ensemble prediction systems. Ensemble forecast data is collected in near real-time from many operational centers. Data providers （10 center) BOM, CMA, CPTEC, ECMWF, JMA, KMA, Meteo-France, CMC, NCEP, UKMO 6

TIGGE (THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble ) • Design structure of TIGGE data set considering potential scientific research and possible real-time applications: – – – Compare initial condition methods (SV, BGM, En. KF, …) Compare multi-model and perturbed physics Develop products ( ways to combine ensembles) Boundary conditions for regional ensembles Regime-dependence of ensemble configuration (size, resolution, composition) – Observation targeting (case selection) – Societal and economic impact assessment 7

Condition of Use of TIGGE Data • The datasets available on this server are provided freely for Research and Education purposes. Before retrieving data please read the conditions below and acknowledge that you accept them. • Registration will provide you with access to the TIGGE data with a delay of 48 hours after initial time of the forecasts. http: //tigge-portal. ecmwf. int/d/license/tigge/ 8 • Registration for real-time access is handled by the THORPEX Project Office.

TIGGE Data Set Definition • Pressure Level Parameters (1000, 925, 850, 700, 500, 300, 250 and 200 h. Pa) – Geopotential height, Specific humidity, Temperature, U-velocity, V-velocity – In addition geopotential height is provided at 50 h. Pa. • Potential Temperature Level Parameters (320 K ) – Potential vorticity • Potential Vorticity Level Parameters （2 PVU） – Potential temperature U-velocity, V-velocity • Single level(32 parameters) – 10 meter u-velocity, 10 meter v-velocity, Psea, CAPE, CIN, Field capacity, Surface pressure Land-sea mask, Orography, Skin temperature, Soil moisture, Soil temperature, Wilting point Snow depth water equivalent, Snow fall water equivalent, Sunshine duration Surface air dew point temperature, Surface air maximum temperature, Surface air minimum temperature, Surface air temperature, OLR, surface latent heat flux, surface net solar radiation, surface net thermal radiation, surface sensible heat flux, Total cloud cover, Total column water, Total precipitation The kind of data and the release time actually provided are different in each center. 9

TIGGE Data Set Totally 259 members for each forecast time http: //dss. ucar. edu/download/tiggedocumentation. pdf 10

JMA’s Provision of EPS GPV Data for TIGGE • JMA provides GPV of One-Week EPS (WEPS) operations once a day (12 UTC). – This provision was started on September 25, 2006. • New parameters were added and the forecast time interval of all parameters were set to 6 hours on March 20, 2007. • 60 of the 77 requested parameters are currently provided. 11

Specification of JMA One-Week EPS TIGGE PERIOD Period Horizontal Grid Vertical Layer Member Forecast time (h) Perturbation method 12 Perturbation 2001. 3. 1 2002. 2. 5 2006. 3. 1 2007. 11. 2 1 1. 125 0. 5625 40 51 60 51 216 216 BGM BGM SV North of

List of available parameters of One-Week EPS Surface parameters Parameter From 25 September 2006 Pressure level parameters From 20 March 2007 Parameter From 25 September 2006 From 20 March 2007 Geopotential height 12 hours interval 6 hours interval Specific Humidity 12 hours interval 6 hours interval Temperature 12 hours interval 6 hours interval U-velocity 12 hours interval 6 hours interval V-velocity 12 hours interval 6 hours interval 12 hours interval 6 hours interval 10 m U-velocity and V-velocity 6 hours interval Surface air (dew point) temperature 6 hours interval Total precipitation 6 hours interval Total cloud cover 6 hours interval Surface air max/min temperature X 6 hours interval Snow depth water equivalent X 6 hours interval Total column water X 6 hours interval All radiation and flux parameters X 6 hours interval Potential T/Vor level parameters Skin temperature X 6 hours interval Parameter Soil moisture X 6 hours interval Land-sea mask and Orography X Only at step 0 Convective-related parameters X X Field capacity X X Snow fall water equivalent X X Soil temperature X X Forecast time : 216 hours Sunshine duration X X Grid interval : 1. 25 degree X X Number of Member : 51 Mean sea level pressure Surface Pressure 13 Wilting point From 25 September 2006 From 20 March 2007 Vorticity X X Temperature X X U- and Vvelocity X X

A Sample Work Using TIGGE Data Multi-Center Grand Ensemble (Initial Time: 2008. 09. 20 12 UTC) Initial T+3 days T+6 days T+9 days JMA, ECMWF, UKMO, NCEP, CMC, KMA, CMA, BOM, CPTEC Total members: more than 200 14

A Sample Work Using TIGGE Data Initial JMA, ECMWF, UKMO, NCEP, CMC, KMA, CMA, BOM, CPTEC 15 Total members: more than 200

A Sample Work Using TIGGE Data T+1 day JMA, ECMWF, UKMO, NCEP, CMC, KMA, CMA, BOM, CPTEC 16 Total members: more than 200

A Sample Work Using TIGGE Data T+2 days JMA, ECMWF, UKMO, NCEP, CMC, KMA, CMA, BOM, CPTEC 17 Total members: more than 200

A Sample Work Using TIGGE Data T+3 days JMA, ECMWF, UKMO, NCEP, CMC, KMA, CMA, BOM, CPTEC 18 Total members: more than 200

A Sample Work Using TIGGE Data T+4 days JMA, ECMWF, UKMO, NCEP, CMC, KMA, CMA, BOM, CPTEC 19 Total members: more than 200

A Sample Work Using TIGGE Data T+5 days JMA, ECMWF, UKMO, NCEP, CMC, KMA, CMA, BOM, CPTEC 20 Total members: more than 200

A Sample Work Using TIGGE Data T+6 days JMA, ECMWF, UKMO, NCEP, CMC, KMA, CMA, BOM, CPTEC 21 Total members: more than 200

A Sample Work Using TIGGE Data T+7 days JMA, ECMWF, UKMO, NCEP, CMC, KMA, CMA, BOM, CPTEC 22 Total members: more than 200

A Sample Work Using TIGGE Data T+8 days JMA, ECMWF, UKMO, NCEP, CMC, KMA, CMA, BOM, CPTEC 23 Total members: more than 200

A Sample Work Using TIGGE Data T+9 days JMA, ECMWF, UKMO, NCEP, CMC, KMA, CMA, BOM, CPTEC 24 Total members: more than 200

Comparison of Control Forecasts SST OLR 25 T 850 RAIN To use TIGGE data for the development of model-ensemble method, we are monitoring control forecast of each center.

“How to get TIGGE GPV data? ” 26

TIGGE Data Portals The TIGGE data is available from the following 3 portals: ECMWF portal http: //tigge-portal. ecmwf. int/ NCAR portal http: //tigge. ucar. edu/ CMA portal http: //wisportal. cma. gov. cn/tigge/ CMA ECMWF NCAR Users can use TIGGE data through web interfaces under the condition of use. 27

Usage of the ECMWF Data Portal First, click this link create session cookie 28

Select Level and type of forecast 29

Start and end date Center ＆base time Forecast time 30

parameters Push button! 31

Select area Select grid Select area and grid Push! 32

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“What is CXML data? ” 34

CXML (Cyclone XML) Data: Motivation • To facilitate easy exchange of information, a standard format to represent analyzed and forecast data for tropical and extra-tropical cyclones is proposed. http: //www. bom. gov. au/bmrc/projects/ THORPEX/CXML/index. html • The new format, called Cyclone XML (CXML) is descriptive and human-legible, making it easy for all human users and most automated applications to read. CXML data • CXML data include information of multiple storms as following; – Analysis, – Forecasts of Deterministic NWP Model, – Forecasts of EPS 35

JMA’s Provision of CXML Data • CXML Data for western North Pacific provided by JMA includes - GSM (Deterministic Forecast Model), - One-Week EPS, - Typhoon EPS. • Provision of the data was started on 1 August 2008 for T-PARC 1. 1) T-PARC is an international research projects implemented under THORPEX. 36

Download of CXML Data http: //www. bom. gov. au/bmrc/projects/ THORPEX/TC/index. html 37 CXML providers have their own web interfaces to download the data.

CXML Data Archive Website CXML data are also available at the Research Data Archives at NCAR: http: //dss. ucar. edu/datasets/ds 330. 3/ Click “DATA ACCESS” 38

CXML Data Archive Website Sign in, or register your information 39

CXML Data Archive Website Click “Internet Download”, and users can choose CXML provider and initial times. 40