2008 Suburban Silver Bullet: PRT Shuttle + Digital Mobility for SRP • Steve Raney, Cities 21 – Palo Alto native – Research & advocacy non-profit • Not a system builder, not asking for $50 M – 13 person, three-year, 188 pg study • Advised by Berkeley’s Robert Cervero • Transportation Research Board / TRR. steve_raney@cities 21. org
• MVPs Thanks – 13 person, three-year study – Cities 21 member Joe Kott, EPRI for interviews & 62 surveys – Stanford Management Company (NOT on-board, but very helpful) • Valuable Feedback: 200+ meetings – Constituents: Bern Beecham, Yoriko Kishimoto, College Terrace (Pria Graves, John Ciccarelli), Gary Fazzino, Joe Simitian's staff, Joint Venture Silicon Valley, SVMG, Stanford Research Park companies (Roche, EPRI, SAP, Lockheed, HP, Daimler Chrysler). – Agencies: Caltrans, Caltrain, VTA, Environmental Protection Agency's Best Workplaces for Commuters, Mineta Transportation Institute, MTC, Peninsula Traffic Congestion Relief Alliance, RIDES, San Jose Redevelopment Agency, and University of California PATH, CCIT, and Transportation Center. – Advocates: Transportation and Land Use Coalition (TALC), Bay. Rail Alliance, Save. SFBay, California Futures Network, STIR project, Packard Foundation, California Affordable Housing Law Project. – Real-estate interests: Palo Alto Housing Corporation, ULI. steve_raney@cities 21. org
California Trends • • • 600, 000 new residents per year Traffic congestion is worsening Jobs moving to exurbs Increasing housing costs Permanent govt fiscal constraints “Dumb growth” in Central Valley – Berkeley “CA at 50 M Project” – Diridon: Merc: “ 60 M S. G. Reasons” • Need large scale change – New solutions for old problems. steve_raney@cities 21. org
Suburban Silver Bullet: Halve SOV Commutes • Goals: – Remove many cars from suburban office parks • Current: 78% drive alone, 16% shared ride, 3% transit – Intensify land use / reclaim parking lots • What works? – $10/day parking (effective, but unpopular) – Hypothesis: PRT Shuttle + Digital Mobility • PRT = Personal Rapid Transit • No “lifestyle sacrifice” • Year 2008 scenario. steve_raney@cities 21. org
Customer-Centered Product Research Literature Experts Commute Refined Concept Product Concept Interviews Surveys Validation • Silicon Valley style • New technology bias – High touch / community building is natural – Takes on personality of researching organization • Start with rough business case in mind and refine. steve_raney@cities 21. org
PRT – Rapid Local Shuttle • Feeder / Distributor / Circulator – Similar to a monorail. Video • High service level, no waiting, faster than a car. – Non-stop, 30 MPH – Bypasses intermediate stations – Ride alone or with 1 -2 people you choose – Convenient stops by buildings (not on street) – Comfortable, quiet, safe, no exhaust – 24 x 7 • 3 companies developing – MN (60’ track), TX, UK (1 km track). steve_raney@cities 21. org
PRT • 5 mile alignment steve_raney@cities 21. org Vehicle Storage
Stanford Research Park • • In Palo Alto, CA 20, 000 jobs Campus-style Parent of Silicon Valley • 50% asphalt • Commute Shed: – 47% within 2 miles of Caltrain – 49% within 10 miles • steve_raney@cities 21. org 185 edge cities
Promising Results (62 surveys) • Promising, but not definitive • Solo commutes: 89% 45% – Carpool: 9% 32%, train: 0% 15. 5% train – For 20 K people, removes 6, 600 autos (roughly) • @ 350 s. f. per space 50 acres $326 M hsng profit • 1. 32 PRT trips/day/person => 26 K trips/day – PRT: profitable (capital, O&M) • Huge transit village land value increase • Apply to 6 M workers in major emp. centers – 1. 98 M cars, 12 B VMT, 424 M gals, 8. 4 B lbs CO 2 • Like Stanford/Exxon $225 M Global Climate & Energy Project. steve_raney@cities 21. org
Comprehensive, Integrated Mobility Door to Door first mile Train Walk Centralized Cars: first mile Bus share, rent, ride home Bike, scooter, Segway (Smart jitney) pick Delivery Short carpool up services, • Improved match. Personal making activities, • Shared parking • Web/wireless coordination Long carpool first mile • Supportive policy context Business • Scale! PRT shuttle system services LAST MILE mid-day trips steve_raney@cities 21. org
Marketing: D 2 D Mobility • Door to door mobility & errands in-between! • Same convenience & flexibility as driving alone • Commute alternatives partnership • Transit agencies, City of Palo Alto, Stanford, employers, cellular operator, taxi; car sharing, car rental, bike coalition, ridesharing • Delivery services: meals, groceries, dry cleaning, photos, produce, shoe repair, etc. . steve_raney@cities 21. org
Cellular Solutions • Marauder’s Map (GPS) – Transit, rideshare connections – Get home safe (Big Sister is watching) • RF / Wi. Fi / Bluetooth ID – Identify yourself to transit fare gate, parking lot gate, car sharing – Credit card transactions • Cell phone: high IQ smartcard – Display, keypad, interactivity, network. steve_raney@cities 21. org
“New Suburbanist” Transit Village Reduced auto dependence: < 50% SOV trips (for workers, residents, & shoppers. ) Child/Senior mobility! Efficient: transit node + vibrant place, shared parking, lower living cost, less car ownership, more time. A new choice! (versus buying beyond the greenbelt). Jobs/Housing Re-balance: workforce housing Personal Activities: Quality schools, day care, hiking, parks, movies, grocery, banks, restaurants, cafes, bars, grocery, gym, massage, yoga, dentist, etc. Business Services: Banks, PC store, copies, Fed. Ex, legal, accounting, etc. steve_raney@cities 21. org Train Station Old transit village 20 acres New retail Jobs New housing Jobs Extended T. O. D. 1280 acres PRT shuttle system
Literature + Interviews + Surveys • Large solo driving reduction is hard • Last mile problem is very important – Mid-day trips: 2 X value of time – Workers are unhappy with bus shuttles • Each commuter: basket of objections – PRT last mile is important, but not sufficient • 30% time penalty: OK • Carpool psychology is complex: – Matchmaking: anonymous, superficial rejection (web dating) – Sleep, uncertainty stress, and safety are important • • Short Caltrain or carpool with PRT: OK Customer support: eliminate nightmares Stranding: want “no penalty” emergency ride home Good commute: “time went fast. ” steve_raney@cities 21. org
THE END • • • Less traffic More affordable housing More vibrant city Less pollution & greenhouse gas No cost to taxpayers Political “ask”: Palo Alto adopt franchising strategy (like electric trolleys in 1888) – Private sector takes financial risk – Long list of constituent conditions. steve_raney@cities 21. org
Quantum Innovation / Public Policy • Innovations produce winners & losers • Political subsystems favor incremental change – ag, defense, energy, transit, healthcare, edu, etc. – “analysis is politics by other means” – Auto/highway subsystem trumps transit • Public sector: huge penalty for failure • Media stifles innovation, accentuates conflict • Macropolitical system can impose quantum change – earmarks, etc. steve_raney@cities 21. org
JFK, Nixon, Wright Brothers • “. . . we choose to go to the moon in this decade, and do other things. . . not because they are easy, but because they are hard…” – John F. Kennedy • “If we can send three men to the moon 200, 000 miles away, we should be able to move 200, 000 people to work three miles away. ” – Richard M. Nixon • Wright Brothers were not the first attempt – Wrong Brothers – Many smart people said man will never fly. steve_raney@cities 21. org
PA Franchise Strategy • City of Palo Alto statement of intent. $1/yr franchise. – City: egress, right-of-way, general plan, zoning • Workforce preference housing (motivates employers) • Conditions – New housing ONLY IF car count decreases – Constituent votes: neighborhoods, retailers, all PA citizens, Stanford – Employers form Transportation Mgmt Assoc. (TMA) • Car sharing, ride home, 511 -style support, marketing, CULTURE – EIR: noise, visual, school. Staff neighborhood analysis. – Transit union support (more jobs, housing preference) – “Tear down” insurance, operating insurance • PRT developer captures part of real-estate upside – “Super-normal” profits necessary to attract investment • Electricity: 1. 8 MW 8 AM peak no new capacity. steve_raney@cities 21. org
PRT Political Viability / Palo Alto • Mature democracy + entrenched capitalism makes first system extremely difficult – Quantum change versus incremental change • Stamps, trolley (utilities & R. E. speculators, not horse cart), chatting on the phone, naval continuous-aim firing – Systems 2 thru 100 are easy – Cities, SVMG, Sierra can’t fund $300 K due diligence studies • Palo Alto – Credibility: better data, biz case, get published, conspirators – Present to Planning Commission • Ask: franchise strategy: no risk, no taxpayer cost, huge upside • Enable a private sector project (more upside for early investors) – Stanford President Hennessy (MIPS) – can say “yes” • Visit Sky. Web MN or ULTra UK • 10 other efforts worldwide. steve_raney@cities 21. org
PRT Investor Due Diligence • The Team – entrepreneurial cost control, etc. – IBM vs. IBM skunk works • Control system design (architect spends 1/3 of time writing documentation) • Control system safety certification – Public utilities commission? – Each SW “version” requires painful re-certification • Annual operating costs – Video surveillance, etc. – Insurance for the first system will be high • Switch reliability (1 fail out of 2 M trips 50 days) • Performance degrades near capacity (wave-offs). steve_raney@cities 21. org
PRT control system technology • “Trains” – – – Morgantown GRT since 1974 BART / NYC Automated Train Control 4 M automated trips/day SFO automated people mover, etc. Frog navigation (ULTRA, park shuttle) • Cars: Platooning, precision docking, lane keeping – – – – – TRW’s $1. 5 M ULTra / AHS control system project (sensors, etc) Governor’s film “The Sixth Day” uses GM On. Star “autopilot” DARPA grand robotic vehicle challenge: $35 K Golem Group U. C. PATH: Automated highways, automated BRT (radar – adaptive cruise control, lidar, Wi. Fi, cheap magnets, diff. GPS coming) Daimler Chrysler: Chauffeur II truck control project (electronic tow-bar, infrared imaging, drive-by-wire) Toyota IMTS bus, self-parking Prius Adaptive cruise control, Vehicle Infrastructure Initiative CVHAS: 2 x. CA, MN, FL. BRT consortium: Vegas, Eugene, Hartford. Japan AHSRA consortium, South Korean project. steve_raney@cities 21. org
PRT Visual Impact • Important issue – Big parking lots are more inviting to PRT than downtowns • Visual vocabulary – Freeway overpasses versus roller coasters – Visarc. com – Chalmers U. study: blend in w/ historic downtown • Portable full scale model – Walk underneath it. Human visual perception sys. • 3 D VR simulation • Survey: How will ULTra look in cities? – 80% say good or excellent. steve_raney@cities 21. org
PRT+D 2 D Economics steve_raney@cities 21. org
PRT Capital Cost Defense • The development team is very important • PRT developers can defend their costs – Sky. Web’s independent cost scrub #2 • Key: private sector incentives, not “cost plus” – Roller coaster / gondola project mgmt, not APM / LRT. (See Andrew Jakes article “Why APMs are so expensive. ”) • BART GRT study independent costing – $10 M to $15 M per mile for 5 miles • Clarian People Mover: $14. 2 M/mile. steve_raney@cities 21. org
Security / Terrorism / Safety • Reduce world’s hate for U. S. , oil dependence • Permission based parking & PRT access – Can even run FBI background checks on folks • PRT video surveillance • PRT algorithmic detection – Flag station entry without boarding – Left a package in empty vehicle • Home. Safe prevents carpool assaults. steve_raney@cities 21. org
Big Sister / Privacy • Opt-in versus “no-opt” • Home. Safe deters assaults for carpools amongst strangers • Trak. Ride increases courteous behavior • Consent required for each personal data “use” – Boss can’t track you • Use data protection best practices – Independent data protection audits – Two people w/ two different passwords. steve_raney@cities 21. org
CA Ave Caltrain: PRT design Up stream storag • Little things like open doors before stopping steve_raney@cities 21. org
TDM Effectiveness • TDM (transportation demand management) programs are crucial, yet few shift more than 15% net. • EPA Best Workplaces for Commuters 41 case studies: – 25%: Paid parking / transportation allowance. Reductions: 16, 25, 28, 20, 16, 25, 34, 25%. steve_raney@cities 21. org
Social Entrepreneurism • • micro-credit, India street kids, AIDs education Act local (small $), strive 4 widespread impact Government is not the solution (resistant) S. E. characteristics: – Boring at dinner parties – Driven, stamina, undeterred – “Ends" oriented • Will change/refine tactics – Listener (behavioral) – Cross-disciplinary, practical. steve_raney@cities 21. org David Bornstein
Toxic Releases • Accidental releases • “Sensitive Receptors” – Kids – Seniors – green • “Risk Contour” – Where in the air? – Red • A “desk study” – New housing & biotech – See SVMG policy paper • Balance in-fill & biotech. steve_raney@cities 21. org
Large Research Project • 10 Multidisciplinary projects – – – – – GIS map 8, 200 employee addresses Full scale PRT model 3 D virtual city & micro simulation 13 one-hour interviews (lit review) 62 surveys, 40 minutes per Cellular SW design (patent pending) Smart parking design Economics / greenhouse gas Urban planning: • Local workforce housing preference • Housing in SRP: toxic releases • Affordable hsng project: 2787 Park Blvd. steve_raney@cities 21. org
New Mobility • ITS to compete with driving alone – “… pairing clusters of smart technologies with existing transportation options to create a coordinated, intermodel transportation system that could substitute for the traditional auto. ” – Susan Shaheen, U. C. Senior Researcher • GPS Wi-Fi phones improve reliability of train and carpool connections – Key: SOV is a “no brainer. ” steve_raney@cities 21. org
• Technology curve steve_raney@cities 21. org
Wireless Commute Assistant Big Sister knows where & who you are GPS: tracking Customer support Next. Train Trak. Ride for carpools Home. Safe, Spy. Kids Next. Space for parking Wi-Fi payment steve_raney@cities 21. org Quick. Car, < 5 minutes Trip planning, travel advisory Order a PRT vehicle Shared parking entry, Quick. Car key Easy PRT ticketing Improved indoor reception
7: 20 AM: on time A B pick up C Trak. Ride AM pickup A: 10 min B: 7 min C: 3 min 7: 25 AM: 2 min late A B pick up C SMS nudge to A at 7: 10, 7: 15 7: 29 AM: 2 min late A B pick up steve_raney@cities 21. org C A departs OK B is 2 min late C delays 2 min Encourages punctuality, courtesy. Eliminates uncertainty. 7: 32 AM: arrival A B pick up C
TR TM LV 6: 25 RC MP 6: 30 6: 35 UNIV CA Next. Train • When to leave desk • Race to train station – Worker must “win” • PRT wait = fcn(demand) • Slack Time: 6: 24 PM 2 nd train arrives 6: 50 PM • TR: 6: 35 PM train is on time • Every 30 sec, recalculate TM 6: 25 UNIV 6: 30 TR 6: 35 CA E-shuttle Time: 6: 31 PM, 2: 00 minutes slack 2 nd train arrives 6: 51 PM steve_raney@cities 21. org – TTAT: time to access train = 1 min walk + 1 min wait + 4 min PRT + 1 min walk + 2 min slack – LV = TR - TTAT – TM: current time • Small beep @ 5, 2 min to LV • Next. Train orders PRT vehicle 2 min before LV
“Hands-free” PRT ticketing • • • Wi. Fi phone traveler ID to gate (context!) Gate displays likely destination Traveler boards (or “pick a station” UI) Automatic credit card debit Example: Jim uses 5 of 19 stations: – If @ Caltrain {5 AM-11 AM} EPRI (job) – If @ EPRI {10 AM-2 PM} [4 luncheon stations] – If @ [lunch station] {10 AM-3 PM} EPRI – If @ EPRI {3 PM-7 PM} Caltrain. steve_raney@cities 21. org
Smart Parking • Accurate real-time car count – Proves unused spaces for in-fill • Drivers can park in any available lot – Carpools can park at office park edge • Drivers directed to available lots • Permission based solution: – Cellular Wi. Fi ID & license plate recognition – Gated entrance – Tight security: authorized entry only – Special policy for retail areas – $0. 50 per day parking charge. steve_raney@cities 21. org
GPS / Location Tracking for Cellular • FCC E-9 -1 -1 requirement • Nextel network / Motorola handset – $149 color GPS handset, $50 grayscale – Network tells handset which satellites to scan for – Walkie-Talkie – $10/mo additional data charge – Apps: auto navigation, fleet tracking / job dispatch. steve_raney@cities 21. org
Anti-PRT Hobbyist Opinion Papers • Silver Bullet via private sector obliterates 90% of arguments • Randall O’Toole, MN: lightrailnow. org – Authors have something to lose if PRT succeeds. Not neutral • Empathy for ROT: congestion pricing, kill public transit & smart growth. PRT forestalls. Contrarianism closed minded (as coping strategy) • Empathy for LRN: LRT projects take 5+ years of advocacy, PRT competes. This is a common phenomenon – Scholarship: no peer review, no empirical research – “mixed metaphors” / damn present using unrelated past – Confusion over the PRT concept • Hate it. Read about it. Imagine bizarre implications – Lack of insider knowledge, relevant background, technical insight • versus Cybertran control system design, only U. S. citizen at ULTra test track, 500+ hours with Taxi 2000, rare Morgantown research, BART GRT study, rare Austrans presentation, U. C. PATH exposure, TRB experience • Due diligence is necessary before investing in PRT – Many issues – Opinion papers focus on the wrong issues. steve_raney@cities 21. org
steve_raney@cities 21. org
Survey: Logistics • 2 year relationship with EPRI • 10 minutes with C. O. O. Ric Rudman – permission to “swarm” the company for a day – Get EPRI to take some ownership • Negotiate with – Cafeteria for $8 lunches – Facilities for putting up the PRT model – IT for web access, scheduling 66 people, 2 x 15 – HR for e-mail invitations every day. steve_raney@cities 21. org
Survey protocol • • ~2 people every 15 min Rob or Jeral greets them Education: full size model Clipboard: current commute Education: Movie, virtual city, benefits, survey Commute comparison e-mailed Participant takes survey (25 minutes) – Print out last page for free $8 lunch • We spend about 40 minutes for participant. steve_raney@cities 21. org
Large Research Project • 10 Multidisciplinary projects – GIS map 8, 200 employee addresses • P&TC presentation March ‘ 03 – – – – Full scale PRT model 3 D virtual city & micro simulation 13 one-hour interviews (lit review) 62 surveys, 40 minutes per Cellular SW design (patent pending) Smart parking design Economics / greenhouse gas Urban planning: • Local workforce housing preference • Housing in SRP: toxic releases. steve_raney@cities 21. org
Demand Analysis Problem • Forecast commute mode split & PRT ridership • Service doesn’t exist – Pick the “least worst” methodology – Significant educational component • New tech product research (Silicon Valley) – Iteratively listen to customers & design solutions. steve_raney@cities 21. org
• • • SOV preferrers face same time advantage VTA’s model: 30% time penalty => high ridership Interviewees stated willingness to incur 50% or higher time penalty steve_raney@cities 21. org
Survey • Problem/solution pairs – #12 compatibility – Gap analysis • Educational questions • Discourage alternatives steve_raney@cities 21. org
steve_raney@cities 21. org
steve_raney@cities 21. org
• • Need more participants, need computer workers Year 2008 assumptions Bias of survey team No control group Self selection Social desirability effect Inaccurate commute comparisons Criticisms – Need more peak hour traffic adjustment, etc. – BART to Caltrain transfer was understated • Details to add: – Climbing stairs, Home. Safe • Some folks needed two alternatives • Bike/ped: insufficient folks • Undercount: Novelty, “bad” alternatives, over-thinking, tipping point steve_raney@cities 21. org
Results: carpool time advantage steve_raney@cities 21. org
Results: Biking • Casual biker theory – Hard core: rain suit, bike in dark, sweat, expensive bike, bike next to fast cars, problem solver – Casual: the opposite. Bike on tree-lined residential streets. Use PRT to traverse unpleasant section & for mid-day trips • Switched ½ to casual biking: – 12 min, 4 mile SOV to 32 min bike + PRT • Casual biker theory worked once. • Both were “too far” away – & switched 25 min, 9 mi SOV to 55 min bike + PRT steve_raney@cities 21. org
Why Stanford / SRP? • • • South bay commute trip reduction leader Marguerite bus shuttle Workforce-oriented housing (natl policy innovator) Much less "auto-accommodating, " parking is a hassle General Use Permit I & II: no new net trips Leading techno university: GCEP (Global Climate and Energy Project), micro sensors, B-school, etc. Entrepreneurial President Hennessey: MIPS (microprocessors) founder, major Google shareholder Leland Stanford Sr. – Continental RR – single biggest techno change. Created world's 7 th largest economy SRP: historical template for sprawling office parks, parent of Silicon Valley HP & Engineering Dean Terman created cooperative competition atmosphere. steve_raney@cities 21. org
Full Scale Model • Fake guideway: lightweight, portable, shippable – Tent truss with ribs (& sock) on sonotube + base – Design challenge – tradeshow booth • Visual impact: (squelches freeway overpass) – See visarc. com • Scrounge machine shop time • Side. FX: advocacy, context study • IDEO charrette. steve_raney@cities 21. org
Full Scale Model – TRB ‘ 03 steve_raney@cities 21. org
U. C. Transportation Conference steve_raney@cities 21. org
Eugene, OR steve_raney@cities 21. org
@ Berkeley steve_raney@cities 21. org
steve_raney@cities 21. org
3 D Animation • Virtual city: 180 buildings, streets, trees, parking, sidewalks, 200 PRT vehicles + guideway • $5/day animators in China vs. $40/hr in S. F. • Full PRT simulation with empty vehicle mangement • Real-time flythru: pick source, dest, then go – Optimized like a game, not a movie: VRML/Direct. X • Legwork: facades, aerials, topology, etc. . steve_raney@cities 21. org
Massive Five Project Thesis • Effort – 13 people spent 20+ hours – 2, 500 hours total – Consultants estimated $325 K • 5 multidisciplinary projects – – – 8, 200 geocoded addresses Full scale PRT model 3 D virtual city 13 one-hour interviews 62 surveys, 40 minutes per • Advisor: Cervero – Like Shaheen’s car sharing dissertation. steve_raney@cities 21. org
TRASH SLIDES FOLLOW steve_raney@cities 21. org
Advanced Corridor Sweep First Mile Walk, bike, push scooter 22 lbs. $350 folding EScooter Lockers at bus stops Neighborhood jitney/taxi Kiss ‘n ride Park ‘n ride w/ space mgmt Segway w/ rain shield steve_raney@cities 21. org Line Haul 148 th & 156 th Bus: 15 min, guaranteed service - BRT coming to 156 th Digital hitchiking at bus stops -Dynamic ridematch, Next. Ride (ETA & tracking), reputation rating, cellular mug shots, background checks, Arrive. Safe -Bike racks on vehicles Last Mile Walk, bike, scooter High Level Of Service Shuttle PRT On campus: carsharing w/ BMWs, hybrids, etc. ; guaranteed ride home, etc.
Q&A Menu • • • • JFK & Nixon re “can it be done? ” Quantum Change Visual Impact Noise (picture of electric vehicle) Terrorism / Safety Economics PRT cost / transportation cost overruns Technology risk Big Sister / Privacy Smart parking What’s original New mobility priorities / survey validation Why Stanford? ULTRA, Morgantown steve_raney@cities 21. org
Housing Moral Imperative • Parents bought nice house in midtown in 1964 • Adjusting for Consumer Price Index, house should now cost $139, 400. steve_raney@cities 21. org
PRT – Rapid Local Shuttle • Feeder / Distributor • Solves last mile problem. Alignment. Cam. Sys • High service level, no waiting, faster than a car. – Non-stop, 30 MPH, Video – Ride alone or with 1 -2 people you choose – Convenient stops by buildings (not on street) – Comfortable, quiet, safe, no exhaust • Services mid-day trips effectively • Improves other modes steve_raney@cities 21. org
Trak. Ride steve_raney@cities 21. org
Planning Vision: Improved Edge City • Improved suburban TOD. Typical, tiny 64 acre transit village increases to 1, 280 acres. – – – Increase real-estate values Reduce parking requirements reclaim parking Add new housing by jobs (duh!) Unsubsidized PRT system Will spread like the electric trolley in 1888 • Reduce cost of car ownership • Improve job access • Augment lifeline transit network – (swing + graveyard shift) • Increase child/senior mobility steve_raney@cities 21. org
Suburban mode split Home 80% SOV, 14% carpool, 5% transit Office Slow, inconvenient transit No activities Free parking Suburb ¼ mi radius Transit share > SOV share CBD Fast commuter rail Mixed activities Paid parking Home CBD-like Station Fast transit Activities Office Feeder Scale! steve_raney@cities 21. org
How PRT Works • • • Stations on sidings / off-line Elevated 16’ Driverless Built like a roller coaster Thin columns, shallow footings. steve_raney@cities 21. org
x. Metholodogy: Interview findings • Improved ridesharing matchmaking – Like anonymous web dating • Increased “productive” time: – sleep is productive! • Existing bus shuttles are loathed • Interviews write the survey. • Personal Support – Web chat “commute community” + knowledge base – Responsive customer support – Eliminate “nightmare” transit experiences. Reliable backup. • Effective car loaners / ride home • Short SOV commutes CAN be changed. steve_raney@cities 21. org
x. Demand Analysis: Attitudes • Rich literature on attitudes • Cam. Sys: surveys to segment market (sam. Trans) – – – I would change my form of travel to get more productive time I don’t mind traveling with people who are different than me I don’t mind if the train or bus runs behind schedule I need to have flexibility to make trips during the day I would switch modes if it would help the environment • Propose a door to door service that addresses these problems – First use interviews to define the service – Then use surveys to validate that the service will succeed • Validate importance of specific features (gap analysis) • Prof. Cervero: “sweat the details” – Cambridge Systematics agrees re “last mile problem” • Commuter rail improvements less important steve_raney@cities 21. org
x. Implications • Reducing Drive Alone share is hard – technically feasible, but politically challenging • PRT shuttles are not solutions, need much more – New mobility, TMA, etc. • Improve bus shuttles • Improve ridesharing matchmaking • Cellular geolocation apps – SW is easy, generating carrier profit is tricky • Casual biker theory deserves more study – Theory seems correct, but too little data • Try/promote remedies for bus motion sickness. steve_raney@cities 21. org
5 Demand Analysis Projects • $20, 000 out-of-pocket + volunteer labor • Cervero: “pioneering demand methodology” steve_raney@cities 21. org
PRT • Rapid local shuttle • Feeder / Distributor – 5 mile alignment • Faster than a car. steve_raney@cities 21. org Vehicle Storage
Next Steps • Trak. Ride SW development • Advocacy – Stanford “no” flanking maneuvers – John Hennessy, Daimler, Lockheed, HP, housing advocates, “willingness to franchise”, TMA, real-estate interests – Presentations, PR • Target: wealthy tech innovators (who played with trains as kids) – Planning study federal earmark via political hierarchy • Template for other cities – Lengthy effort – 15 pg & 188 pg reports: http: //www. cities 21. org/silver_bullet. htm – ? 400 person forecast. steve_raney@cities 21. org
Bay Area Trends Change • • • 149% traffic congestion increase (2020) 40% population increase Latino 2010 majority (vs. Palo Alto 4. 6%) Palo Alto Housing Element challenges Current smart growth paradigm minimal impact. steve_raney@cities 21. org
x. Methodology: Interviews • 13 one hour interviews: – What is your commute day like? • Likes, dislikes • Experience with commute alternatives – Respond to custom PRT / new mobility scenario • Challenges – SOV folks don’t know problems with alternatives. steve_raney@cities 21. org
Advanced Corridor Sweep First Mile Walk, bike, push scooter 22 lbs. $350 folding EScooter Lockers at bus stops Neighborhood jitney/taxi Kiss ‘n ride Park ‘n ride w/ space mgmt Segway w/ rain shield steve_raney@cities 21. org Line Haul Last Mile Bus: 15 min, guaranteed service Digital hitchiking at bus stops -Dynamic ridematch, Next. Ride (ETA & tracking), reputation rating, cellular mug shots, background checks, Arrive. Safe -Bike racks on vehicles Walk, bike, scooter High Level of Service shuttle PRT On campus: carsharing, guaranteed ride home, etc.
Employee Smart Jitney Arterial steve_raney@cities 21. org
Halving Solo Driving • Futuristic (none of this works yet!) • 1) Big suburban office parks: 20 K workers – PRT Shuttle + Digital Mobility • 2) MS Arterial Sweep for short commutes – Casual carpooling, Electric bikes, Wireless • Hope ideas spur variations & out of box ideas • Steve Raney, Cities 21. steve_raney@cities 21. org
TDM Effectiveness - old • TDM (transportation demand management) programs are crucial, yet few shift more than 15% net. • EPA Best Workplaces for Commuters 41 cases: – 40%: Georgia Power ’ 97 to ‘ 99, solo: 90% to 50%, 3 K jobs. Via 1) $65/mo subsidy, 2) Every 10 min MARTA shuttle service. Fishy numbers. Shuttle served ~220 out of 3 K jobs. Why discontinued? – 25%: Paid parking / transportation allowance. Reductions: 16, 25, 28, 20, 16, 25, 34, 25%. – 19%: Portland's CBD TMA: solo from 72% to 53%. Extensive pgm w/ cultural shift. Hartford Steam Boiler (CBD): 18% – 15% Bishop Ranch, questionable control group. steve_raney@cities 21. org
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