2008 and Beyond Carol Moylan Chief, National Income and Wealth Division National Economic Accounts Data Users’ Conference Washington, DC April 13, 2007
Comprehensive Revisions of the NIPAs § BEA prepares annual revisions of the NIPAs each July and comprehensive revisions every four to five years based on the release of the benchmark I-O table. § Revisions provide opportunity to make improvements to accounts as outlined in BEA’s strategic plan. § Next comprehensive revision will be released in October 2008. www. bea. gov 2
Why have Comprehensive Revisions? ▪ To incorporate benchmark I-O accounts ▪ To keep up with a dynamic economy ▪ To address data gaps and other shortcomings ▪ To make the full time series consistent ▪ To improve consistency and integration with other accounts ▪ To improve consistency with international guidelines www. bea. gov 3
Problem with Past Comprehensive Revisions Past comprehensive revisions: ▪ Placed huge workload and stress on NEA staff: § More than 100 proposals were submitted for the 2003 revision; § Pressure to submit proposals because the next opportunity to make a needed change wouldn’t occur for another 4 or 5 years. ▪ Place a large burden on users: § Several large changes to absorb at once. § Customers have been frustrated by the delays in release of tables in recent comprehensive revisions. www. bea. gov 4
Future Comprehensive Revisions ▪ Will continue to: § Incorporate latest benchmark I-O table. § Update the reference year for index numbers. § Address data gaps and improve consistency with other accounts. ▪ Will provide option that definitional or major methodological changes may be implemented in a future annual revision. www. bea. gov 5
Major Improvements for 2008 ▪ Changes in definitions and classifications -- new treatment of disasters. ▪ Changes in presentation (tables) -- new PCE classification. ▪ Changes in source data and statistical methods -- misreporting of income. www. bea. gov 6
Beyond 2008: Flexible Annual Revisions ▪ Because of improvements in database technologies, number of years open to revision no longer the problem for users that it was previously. ▪ Allow major changes to be introduced without waiting for comprehensive revisions. ▪ BEA will focus on limited major changes in any given annual revision. www. bea. gov 7
Flexible Annual Revisions (continued) ▪ Better integration with Annual I-O and GDP by Industry estimates. ▪ Priority will be given to proposals that are complete and ready for implementation. ▪ Limited number of changes improves dependability and delivery of revised tables. www. bea. gov 8
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