2 0 a Current Energy Status Events and

2. 0 a Current Energy Status Events and Commodity Markets 1/12/06 1/7/2007 1/21/2010 NYMEX Crude Oil Futures $64. 55/bbl $56. 17 $76. 24 Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures NYMEX Heating Oil Future NYMEX RBOB Gasoline Futures Palo Verde On-Peak Spot Electricity Local Melbourne FL Hess gasoline $9. 26/mm. Btu c/gal 175. 93 ¢/gallon $58. 28/MWh $2. 32/gallon $6. 18 156. 53¢ 170. 00¢ $48. 43 $2. 33 $5. 59 199¢ 201¢ $48. 53 $2. 739 http: //money. cnn. com/data/commodities/ http: //www. bloomberg. com/markets/commodities/energyprices. html Tidevann Frank R. Leslie, B. S. E. E. , M. S. Space Technology, LS IEEE 1/21/2010, Rev. 2. 0. 3 fleslie @fit. edu; (321) 674 -7377; Link Bldg. Rm. 104 www. fit. edu/~fleslie http: //my. fit. edu/~fleslie/Course. RE/Class. Pres/Class. HTM/RE 020 a. Current. Events_files/frame. htm

2. 0 a Haitian Earthquake Damages Energy Systems • Principal generation is from diesel-electric plants or hydro • Loss of transmission lines essentially total • Some stores, hospitals, homes, etc. , may have local generator but limited fuel • Utility power outage means nighttime paralysis; no refrigeration • Fuel Considerations • Diesel pumps, cooking oil, wood, paper + charcoal compressed into briquettes; deforestation • Water • Broken pipes, tanker trucks? , impassible roads • Water pumped by electricity or fuel? Manual wells? 100121

US Haitian Aid • US military provides ships, planes, trucks, etc. • Skilled in logistics for battle now changed to a different humanitarian mission • Troops to stop looters and protect from gangs • Medical field hospitals set up • Naval shipboard hospitals brought in (USNS Comfort) • American Red Cross mobilizing • Specialized search and rescue teams for extraction and recovery from many cities and states • Massive food and water needs – but donate cash • A ship could power the city, but powerlines are down 100119

2. 0 a Scott Brown Election Upset l MA senator Scott Brown (R) bested Marsha Coakley (D) to win the US Senate seat by a landslide (previously held by Edwin Kennedy) (MA is a primarily Democratic state) u. Major upset, and the Democrats 60 -vote majority is broken, possibly leading to loss of the Health Care bill u. Energy bill had been put off to push health care bill before State of the Union address l Brown’s energy policies u “Cap-and-trade is a national energy tax. (Jan 2010) u Opposes cap-and-trade system, but renewables OK. (Jan 2010) u Promote increased use of alternative fuel technology. (Nov 2002) “* l Read www. ontheissues. org/Background_Energy_+_Oil. htm l Astounding change likely in the US Senate and its bills l Impending 2010 House election will see more changes (“that you can believe in”) l Can’t predict the outcome! 100120 * www. ontheissues. org/senate/Scott_Brown. htm

Selected Energy Headlines of 2009 -10 • 2010 Jan: Oil 1/12/10, $82, then $77 on 1/19/10, – is all well with “cheap oil”? l $147 crude oil peak in October 08 falling to $39, now $77 on 1/19/10 u. No need for renewables anymore? l New energy bill may languish in Congress and die l For some current prices, see http: //money. cnn. com/markets/commodities/ http: //www. bloomberg. com/energy/ l Possible offshore drilling on continental shelf? l Cape Wind project challenged by American Indian tribe – will block the rising sun! 100119

US Energy Policy Act of 2010(? ) l Unknown status – backroom deals? When? u. Cap-and-Trade: Set limits on emissions and establish tradable emission certificates (ratepayers buy), a. k. a. Cap-and-Tax” u. Carbon Tax: penalty on electricity carbon emissions that will increase ratepayers price (Waxman-Markey) l American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009 u. Senate S. 1733 u. Copenhagen meeting unsuccessful, thus bill may fail u. EPA would then promulgate rules for GHG reduction at high expense until Congress acts

Selected Energy Headlines of 2008 Toyota Highlander • 2008 Jan: Oil ranges from mid-$90 s to $97 and for 1/20/09, $37 – is all well with “cheap oil”? l $147 crude oil peak in October 08 falling to $39, now $38 on 1/12/09 l “U. S. lawmakers unveiled a raft of energy-related bills in the early hours of the 110 th Congress aimed at boosting fuel ethanol use, extracting liquid fuels from coal and tightening automobile fuel efficiency rules. “ [Reuters] l Bush will allow offshore drilling on continental shelf l Senator Obama becomes President u. Favors renewables, conservation & efficiency; perhaps nuclear, “Clean Coal” 100120

Will OCS Drilling Help US? Dr. Kyriacos Zygourakis is a professor in the Department of Chemical and Biomolecular Engineering at Rice University. http: //www. energybulletin. net/node/46195 100112

2 a. 1 Overview of Energy Issues l Energy decisions are influenced by supply and demand, politics, earmarks or “pork”, public interest or protests, availability, fuel source commodity changes, and economics l Ten-year construction time of a utility plant requires a reasonably stable market to justify construction loans l Uncertainty of the energy commodity markets can destabilize the perception of future energy needs l Proposed energy plants, even renewables, are usually met with opposition from potential neighbors (NIMBYs) or distant NGOs (nongovernmental organizations) u What’s a “CAVE”? (; -) 100120

2 a. 2. 1 Recent Energy-Related Events (within ~1 year) l Still. . . : Pres. G. W. Bush wanted to drill for oil in Arctic National Wildlife Reserve (ANWR); environmentalists fighting potential pollution; estimates are that oil could satisfy US needs for six months to twelve years in only 10 years depending upon who estimates; could be held in reserve as part of SPR (Strategic Petroleum Reserve), opened Bristol Bay, Alaska for drilling 1/10/07 l Cape Wind still striving for first plant near Nantucket against much opposition www. capewind. org; l $20 B invested in renewable energy vs. $150 B in all global power – Erin Martinot 100120

2 a. 2. 1 Recent Energy-Related Events, 2 (within ~1 year) l The massive stimulus “bailout” bill entered US House debate 1/15/09 u$20 billion in renewable energy tax cuts u$32 billion to improve energy transmission and encourage the development of battery-powered vehicles u. Senate Republicans will try to block and introduce their own version u. Some $1. 3 trillion in stimulus money “spreading around” l OPEC forecasts decline in crude oil demand by 180, 000 bbls/day! Prices would fall 100120

2 a. 2. 1 The Kyoto Protocol l The 1997 Kyoto Protocol required participating nations to reduce pollutants below 1990 levels (they’re failing to do so) l President Clinton did not present the treaty to Congress since it would not have been ratified; Pres. Bush also declined to ask; moot when Obama took office l Russian Duma ratified it, thus passage of 55% of nations threshold occurred, and the protocol was then in force l Developing nations such as Brazil, Russia, India, China, (BRIC) and are exempted from the treaty provisions, yet will produce far greater pollution than developed nations in coming years! u As much as 75% of world emissions are expected to come from developing nations in 2040 – Paul Beckner l Developing nations could pollute freely and sell their energy to nations constrained by Kyoto; Mexico could pollute the US and yet sell energy to the US l Natural emissions of GHG may be five times the human contribution 100120

2 a. 2. 1 b The Copenhagen Meeting l The December 2009 Copenhagen Climate Change Conference accomplished only a desire to reduce emissions – a quota to be defined by each country l There are only goals, but no law resulting from all this l Nations would not commit to binding emission level reductions with penalties l Developing countries wanted money from developed countries --- “social justice”? l It lacked only a “Mission Accomplished” banner flying on the White House as “happy face” was put on the lack of results l Lots of jet fuel burned getting delegates there 100119

2 a. 2. 1 Recent Energy-Related Events, 3 l The “Big Three” auto makers made most profit selling large cars and SUVs u. Public interest changed to small, fuel-efficient vehicles with less profit, threatening the companies with bankruptcy unless taxpayers bailed them out l GM Chevy “Volt” ads are running on TV u. Battery electric car, not a hybrid yet u. Range of about 40 miles only meets needs of 93% of driving public l Electric cars seem back in favor; grid charging now ok l “Cash for Clunkers” moved sales up; taxpayers subsidized payments of $4800 for crushing useable cars and trucks 100121

2 a. 2. 2 a The US Energy Policy l The US Energy Policy of May 2001 set the structure for future energy approaches; updated by Energy Policy Acts of 2005 & 2006, 2007, 2008, etc. See Title 10 of the C. F. R. l The Clean Coal Program is being researched to develop very low emissions after costly stack gas cleaning l Renewables now comprise a small part (~ 4%) of US energy sources, even including large hydro u. Hydro is indirect solar power and IS renewable u. Emphasized because some enviros say it’s not renewable l Advanced nuclear or coal plants could supply H 2 for “Hydrogen Economy” as an alternate to natural gas (NG) (depleting); 97% H 2 comes from NG l Some clamor that nuclear is “renewable” – no CO 2 l Pres. Bush said, “America is addicted to oil” 100119

2 a. 2. 2 b The US Energy Policy Act of 2007 l Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFÉ) standards increased from 25 mpg to 35 mpg for cars and light trucks by 2020 l Renewable electricity standard (RES) that would require 15% of utility power from renewables was removed from the bill by Democrats to prevent certain defeat u Some states would have to buy Renewable Energy Certificates if they didn’t reach the 15%, increasing consumer power costs u RE is easy for states of Texas, Washington, and Oregon, perhaps impossible for Florida l DOE directed to provide $20. 5 B for nuclear reactors & fuel plus $10 B for RE and $8 B for clean coal [Florida Today, 12/18/07 l Lamp bulbs must be 70% more efficient by 2020 [Paul Davidson, USA Today, 2007] 100112

2 a. 2. 2 c The US Energy Policy Act of 2008 l Speaker Pelosi withdrew new CAFÉ standard from bill to prevent a filibuster; wanted 50 mpg(? ) [Why not 500 miles per gallon? ? --- FRL] l Solar tax credits extended for 10 years 090120

2 a. 2. 2 c The US Energy Policy Act of 2009 -10 l Pushed off due to Health Care bill difficulties l US Energy Policy Act of 2010 remains to be seen l Many aspects incorporated in the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act: efficiency, tax rebates, etc. l Cap & Trade will increase consumer electricity prices “This is the Waxman-Markley comprehensive energy bill, known for short as "ACES, " that includes a cap-and-trade global warming reduction plan designed to reduce economy-wide greenhouse gas emissions 17 percent by 2020. Other provisions include new renewable requirements for utilities, studies and incentives regarding new carbon capture and sequestration technologies, energy efficiency incentives for homes and buildings, and grants for green jobs, among other things. ” http: //www. opencongress. org/bill/111 -h 2454/show#bill_list 100120

2 a. 2. 2 d Arctic Nat’l Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) l ANWR has a contentious past (but dropped out of sight now) n Potential oil and gas reserves of ~1 year 10 years from now n “Equivalent to 30 years of Saudi Arabia imports” u $10. 4 B reserves located in Northeastern Alaska n Coastal plain with some towns; no trees u Drilling might interfere with wildlife migration n Environmentalists fighting to preserve area for caribou l Removed from 2005 Energy Policy Act to avoid blocking passage l Added to Defense Dep’t. Budget Bill u House passed, but Senate couldn’t get votes to overcome Democratic filibuster 12/21/2005; withdrawn for possible later action 100121

2 a 2. 2. e Obama Energy Policy l Create “New Energy” economy l Millions of [union] jobs in wind turbines, solar, modernizing electrical grid, sustainable energy , innovative solutions, independence from fossil fuels u Except for Future Gen “clean coal” to hydrogen (in Obama’s Illinois coal state) l Global Climate Changes --- international agreements l New Energy Team --- Energy Secretary, Dr. Stephen Chu, nuclear physicist, led Berkeley National Labs, became interested in climate change and energy l Lisa Jackson, EPA Admin. Air pollution, protect environment; Nancy Sutley, Chair WH Council on Enviro Quality, sustainable path and future; Carol Browner, “Energy Czar”, Energy & Climate 100112

2 a 2. 2. e Obama Energy Policy l Obama’s pick for Secretary of Interior Sen. Ken Salizar (D-CO) l Noon 1/15/09: “President-elect Barack Obama's pick to lead the Interior Department promised to help wean the country off foreign oil by expanding renewable energy on public lands and promoting the "wise use" of traditional energy sources. “ Associated Press u. He wants to balance RE with coal, oil, and gas u. DOI has Bureau of Public Lands where many resources are extracted But check out what Pelosi did in banning solar thermal plants in the Mohave Desert 100121

2 a 2. 2. e Obama Energy Policy, 2 l Develop job transition to clean energy technology reeducate (unionized) auto workers (? ) to do green energy l Double RE funding (still not much) l Change from fossil fuels to renewables such as wind, solar, etc. l Use nuclear with other as a 30 -year transition; develop “clean” coal & coal to liquids u. Air Force flew plane on 50% biofuel to Iraq l Emphasis on energy conservation and efficiency 100120

2 a. 2. 3. 1 US --- Misc. Details l FPL merging with Constellation to be Constellation Energy? u “Never mind”; cancelled l Duke merged with Cinergy for $8. 5 B l Exelon merged with New Jersey's Public Service Enterprise Group Inc. for $16 billion l New York State Renewable Portfolio Standard mandates 25% RE by 2013; 19% now large hydro; to be wind, hydro, biomass l Mild winter weather lowers fuel oil demand heating oil future price l Seven governors in NE form Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI; called “reggie”) to cut CO 2 10% by 2019 l US “green” power increased to 4500 GWh annually l Florida PSC denied FPL rate increase to build nuclear, natural gas and solar plants for cleaner energy (less CO 2) 100120

2 a. 2. 3. 2 US --- Energy Markets l The “Grid” moves electric energy from high voltage sources to slightly lower voltage loads l Losses occur along transmission lines of ~1 - 5% l Wind energy can be put into the grid and sold far away u“Wind electrons” don’t travel all the way to the load u. Just a commodity trade of ~$35/MWh in large blocks l Carbon offsets, carbon footprints, CO 2 market trading l Fly all over the world and pay for plane emissions offset; may be a scam --- Federal Trade Commission 080120

2 a. 2. 3. 2 US --- Energy Markets Average Weekly Coal Commodity Spot Prices Business Week Ended January 04, 2008 l l http: //www. eia. doe. gov/cneaf/coal/page/coalnews/coalmar. html 080109 Prices continue to trend upwards or fluctuate Natural gas is most volatile fuel

2 a. 3 Worldwide Markets l Oil (and sub-products) and natural gas are marketed and shipped on the international commodity market u. A commodity is somewhat indistinguishable regardless of source (fungible) -- Crude oil futures $76 on 1/21/2010 u. Branding is sometimes used to attempt to get a better price -- like Florida orange juice vs. California OJ l If oil exporter decides not to sell to US, they sell elsewhere, and US buys from that country l OPEC (~15 countries) decides on total production based on price; allocated based upon reserves; estimated reserves may be kited to get more market share + Russian influence 100112

2 a. 3. 1 Worldwide Markets l Gasoline is often the same to the tank truck distribution point, where additives color the gasoline with dyes or provide cleaning solvents, but mostly they enhance marketing content l Volatile fuel prices, but trends higher with time l Natural gas price shows winter demand cyclic peaks for Northern states heating; storm dependent u. Utilities compete with homeowners on price; same with #2 heating oil, which competes with diesel 100120

2 a. 2. 4. 1 Coal l The US has large coal reserves that are expected to last ~200 years l Potential for building 40 GW of new plants (for reference, St. Lucie nuclear plant ~1. 7 GW); coal killed by Florida Public Service Commission l “Clean Coal” with reduced emissions is heavily Federal-subsidized l Coal mining kills 1000 s of miners each year worldwide http: //www. eia. doe. gov/cneaf/coal/page/coalnews/coalmar. html CO 2 declared a pollutant that EPA must regulate; EPA deciding what to do FPL “Clean Coal” plant request rejected by FPSC; four others also rejected Coal-to-liquid transportation fuel is controversial; developed by Germans during World War II; “synfuel” 080105

2 a. 2. 4. 2 Petroleum (Crude Oil) l Raw crude oil is a commodity traded in the world market u The 42 -gallon barrel price fluctuates with worldwide demand u $57/barrel on 12/21/2005; $62 on 12/4/06; $56 on 1/5/2007; $53. 75 on 1/11/07; broke $100 on 1/2/08; $38 on 1/20/09; $76 on 1/21/10 u Affects stock market and trading psychology u Turmoil in foreign countries affects world market; Kenya and Nigeria violence killed many; Foreign companies disliked and attacked l #2 fuel oil is widely used for home heating in the Northeast u Homeowners compete with large utilities for fuel u Mild 2006 winter meant more diesel fuel available & less heating oil produced; same for 2007 u Cold weather now would use more oil and drive prices higher l Multitude of products and materials such as gasoline, diesel, plastics feedstocks produced from petroleum l TV stock pundit Jim Cramer, Street. com, observes that many oil fields now require more drilling of wells just to get the same production, so invest in drilling companies (disclaimer: I did with FSESX, a mutual fund) 100120

2 a. 2. 4. 2 Crude Oil Prices l As supply and demand meet, high volatility results u$147 peak then fell to $33 and is now about $76 n. Estimates (rumors) of $10 to $200/gallon are rampant l As gasoline reached $4/gallon, drivers cut back, changed routes, consolidated trips, bought smaller vehicles with better fuel economy u. Prices below $3/gallon and yet the surplus of supply led to worldwide “demand destruction” and prices fell 100121

2 a. 2. 4. 2. 1 Top Exporters Top World Oil Producers, 2008 (thousand barrels per day) l OPEC controls the prices of its members l World market also controls by supply and demand l The United States imports much of its foreign oil supply from Venezuela (12 to 15% of US needs) u Politics and union strikes dominate Venezuela oil market u Pres. Chavez is a socialist and anti-US, pro-Cuba; reelected 12/2006; inaugurated 1/10/07 u Pres. Castro of Cuba may hire China to extract Gulf oil http: //www. venezuelanalysis. com/articles. php? artno=1408 Country Producti on 1 Saudi Arabia 10, 782 2 Russia 9, 790 3 United States 8, 514 4 Iran 4, 174 5 China 3, 973 6 Canada 3, 350 7 Mexico 3, 186 8 United Arab Emirates 3, 046 9 Kuwait 2, 741 10 Venezuela 2, 643 11 Norway 2, 466 12 Brazil 2, 402 13 Iraq 2, 385 14 Algeria 2, 180 15 100112 Rank Nigeria 2, 169 http: //www. eia. doe. gov/emeu/cabs/topworldtables 1_2. html

2 a. 2. 4. 2. 2 Iraq l $1. 3 B-$18 B oil smuggling was known to UN Security Council but was not stopped according to Paul Volcker [Seattle Post Intelligencer, 12/27/2004]; different from “oil-for-food” (or oil -for-palaces) program that the UN also mishandled l Iraq has significant oil reserves (third) yet has a fraction of the World market u. Greatest price effect is from psychological impact of turmoil on markets; panic drives speculators u. Unstable population prevents normal production l Oil pipelines are readily sabotaged as they often are exposed above sand, isolated, and easy to bomb 100121

2 a. 2. 4. 2. 3 Iran l Iran is developing nuclear power with Russian & Chinese help u. Useful for ensuring more oil to export when prices soar u. Greatest price effect is from psychological impact of turmoil on markets u. Handy for nuclear weapons, too! l They sell oil on the world market under OPEC membership l Wanted to change OPEC valuation to Euros due to inflation of the US dollar but motion didn’t pass at OPEC meeting 100112

2 a. 2. 4 Afghanistan l Afghanistan could be a route to bring petroleum pipelines from Turkmenistan in the north to the Arabian Sea for ease of water export l Turkmenistan has onshore and Caspian Sea oil fields l Turmoil in Afghanistan prevents development; tribal chiefs (politically incorrect: warlords) control remote areas l National government tenuous at best http: //news. bbc. co. uk/olmedia/1585000/images/_1585 197_afghan_targets 2_300. gif 100121

2 a. 2. 4. 3 Natural Gas (NG) lngpedia. com l Clean-burning NG is the utility fuel of choice because of low emissions l Supplies are limited in N. America, and importation from overseas by liquefied natural gas (LNG) tankers will become necessary u Environmentalists are fighting any new LNG terminals, saying that conservation and efficiency are all that is required to reduce demand l Natural gas is widely used for home heating in the Midwest l Dow executive says 30 to 40 times current LNG terminals are needed to meet future demand l LNG pipeline and terminal proposed for Fort Lauderdale FL and off Tampa u 10 miles offshore; LNG gasified from seawater heat; reduces hazard that Boston has u See the huge LNG tanker attacked by terrorists in the closing moments of the oil intrigue thriller movie “Syriana” (couldn’t happen here since would be stopped just like drug smugglers) u Yemeni LNG ships enter Boston Harbor in 2010 100121

2 a. 2. 4. 3 Natural Gas Field Peaking 090115 http: //europe. theoildrum. com/node/4933

2 a. 2. 4. 3. 1 Merchant Power Plants l Merchant plants sell power to utilities on short notice (phone call), as they can be started and deliver full power in about 20 minutes l The Oleander Plant near I-95 and FL 520 went online ~11/2002; 5 aeroderivative turbines (simple-cycle without HRSG); combinedcycle turbines would have been more efficient but would not qualify under PURPA (Public Utility Regulatory Policies Act) law defect u Local enviros claimed exhaust would kill birds flying through l Clean NG plants can burn oil if cheaper that day l Power is sold under “Power Purchase Agreements” in blocks of megawatt-hours at about $35 per megawatt-hour 100121

2 a. 2. 4. 4 Nuclear Energy l Iran talks resume, stop, resume, etc. l Power, or for weapons u Some say oil-rich Iran doesn’t need nuclear power, but when oil becomes extremely expensive, say $300/bbl, they will want local power from other means so they can export all the oil u Russia may host Iranian fuel processing and reprocessing l World nuclear power cleanup means high expenses --- ~$1. 7 T l Yucca Mt. divisive debate; Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV) is new majority leader and controls what bills go to the floor and which are ignored, so Yucca Mt. is dead and Obama will close it l More nuclear plants proposed for Florida to diversify energy sources, and the alternative is coal (coal rejected by FPSC) u No CO 2, so being pushed as “Clean Energy” u (I like renewables, but massive power is needed from conventional utilities) 100121

2 a. 2. 4. 4 Nuclear Uranium Depletion l Uranium supplies diminish as more is mined; price will rise l Time to peak varies, but may be 30 years from 2007 100105

2 a. 2. 4. 4. 1 North Korean Nuclear Plants l The US had been selling oil to North Korea to keep them from starting/continuing their nuclear program (possible weapons) l A side effect of nuclear power plants is that the plutonium content of the fuel rods increases with age, and weapons might be made from the “spent fuel” through reprocessing l When the US stopped oil sales because of North Korean missile sales, North Korea announced that it must again turn to nuclear power to get energy; US fears weapon development l North Korea has now disconnected or blocked IDEA surveillance cameras at their power plants and pulled out of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty l They now claim to have reprocessed uranium to get plutonium for nuclear weapons 080101

2 a. 2. 4. 5 Hydropower l China building 12. 6 GW Xiluodu dam; 22. 4 GW now at Three Gorges Dam ( Three Gorges had transmission line outage recently) l Belize completed 7. 3 MW dam; earlier, build 25 MW dam at Macal River; these are <30 MW and are “small” hydro l Primary power source in WA, OR, & AZ l Smaller hydro in many other states; Florida has two plants near Tallahassee; 30 MW and 45 MW (Florida Tech has 0. 000003 MW!) l Small dams often now being removed (Snake River, ID) l Methane and CO 2 emissions from decaying organic matter in reservoir? u Emissions are worse in tropical heat 100121

2 a. 2. 4. 6. 1 Land/Onshore Wind Energy l Atlantic City NJ has 5 new turbines at a sewage treatment plant that will supply much of the power there http: //www. matternetwork. com/images/Matter/atlanticcity. jpg 100121

2 a. 2. 4. 6. 2 Offshore Wind Energy l Wind is strong and steady offshore, but installation is costly in seabed l US has 900 GW offshore potential l DOE, GE, and Univ. Mass form Mass Tech Collaborative l LILA project ended due to cost doubling l Galveston Offshore Wind to build 7 miles off Galv. Island; 50 wind turbines 150 MW in 4 to 7 years l Minerals Management Service, US DOI has offshore authority l Floating Hywind 3 MW turbines 80 m above water; 90 m diameter l GE opened turbine plant near Raleigh NC u GE makes blades in Pensacola FL l Clipper Windpower developing a 7. 5 MW offshore turbine for UK 080105

2 a. 2. 4. 7 Solar Energy l ECD Ovonics opening thin-film plant in China; 25 MW/year l San Diego buying power from Stirling dishes; 300 MW 6000 units in 3 square miles; Powerlight? l NYC BIPV rated 210 k. Wp at Stillwell Ave. Station l As EU fails to meet Kyoto Protocol, more solar cells will go from US factories to Germany, etc. l (For reference, the St. Lucie Nuclear Plant is 2 cells x 850 MW) l FPL building 300 MW of solar thermal trough plant l Netherland company building roadway solar thermal collector to heat adjacent buildings 080105

2 a. 2. 4. 8 Geothermal Energy l The Geysers CA (near Calistoga) continues to provide steam turbine power l Air conditioning Ground Source Heat Pumps (GSHPs) can extract or reject heat using ground water, significantly increasing the efficiency l Common with Florida 68 -degree artesian water in 1960 s u Heated water was dumped 080105

2 a. 2. 4. 9. 1 Ocean Current Energy l New system to be deployed near Portugal l Palatka-based Ocean Systems prototyped 10 -ft diameter turbine u Locations like Gulf Stream are limited u Rivers might use similar designs l Florida Atlantic University starting a $5 M Ocean Center to extract energy from the Gulf Stream with underwater turbines u Could fulfill 30% of Florida’s needs 080105

2 a. 2. 4. 9. 2 Ocean Wave Energy l Pelamis pipeline-type prototype installed l US Navy funding 1 MW wave farm off Hawaii l Linear generator installed in UK in 2005 [like shaker flashlights [not Shaker (; -) ]) l SDE 40 MW Sri Lanka plant u Hydraulic piston motors drive generators l Ocean Power Technology 1 MW Oahu Hawaii l Manchester “Bobber” scale model deployed l Finavera’s Aqua. Buoy 2. 0 test buoy sank of Oregon coast; lasted two months [ON&T, Vol. 13, Issue 8, Dec 07] l 1 MW Irish Wavebob prototype 080105

2 a. 2. 4. 9. 3 Ocean Tidal Energy l l l 051230 Tidal power was used in US ~1700 for grain mills Test installations in North Sea near Scotland, Orkney “Total Delay” to be constructed about 2007/2008 Canada’s Bay of Fundy 1. 2 MW Sea. Gen turbine from UK Marine Current Turbine’s 300 k. W unit shown below left; others right http: //www. hie. co. uk/aie/tidal_power. html

2 a. 2. 4. 9. 4 Ocean Thermal Energy l Ocean Thermal Energy Lab in Hawaii now supplies cooling water for buildings; was in shutdown due to high costs l OTEC is too expensive for power production now --But, wait! There’s more! Legal pork “earmark” got millions to restore operation u Japan is planning an OTEC installation at an atoll Source: Sea. Solar. Power. com http: //www. nrel. gov/otec/what. html 081218

2 a. 2. 4. 10 Biomass Energy l Brazil sugar production diverted to ethanol u Brazil drilling for oil offshore, using many production rigs, and less ethanol will be used l Major potential source of Florida renewable energy u Protests starting over land use u Ethanol pollution and low energy efficiency claims u More energy to produce than can be gotten out of it, or maybe the reverse: 0. 7 to 1. 3 ratios; 1. 0 is not worth conversion l Direct combustion and cofiring l Sugar to ethanol & oils to biodiesel l Cellulose converted by enzymes into desired product l Florida sweet sorghum and jatropha planting for biodiesel 0811218

2 a. 2. 5. 1 International l United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) u Stated global warming exists and much is caused by humans u Ice melting and sea level rise is a global warming concern u It’s about 1 to 3. 8 mm per year --- wear your boots! l Kyoto protocol cuts carbon emissions below 1990 reference year u Most countries can’t do it now u Bali conference had GHG people flying from all over the world to save energy and cut emissions! Kyoto expires soon l UN Montreal COP 11 meeting discussed further energy and emission policy u US and China declined to join talks for binding limits due to economic constraints l European Parliament wants 20 to 25% renewables [RE News] l Berlin mandates new buildings have 75% solar power l US greenhouse gases (GHG) rose 2% in 2004 [EIA] l Copenhagen Accord meeting had only goals 100121

2 a. 2. 5. 1. 1 Iran l Iran is the second largest oil producer with a total of 3. 5 MM bpd. [Source: AFP, http: //www. gasandoil. com/goc/features/fex 21800. htm ] l Iran has extensive oil fields supplying 10% of World’s oil energy u. New agreements to supply China with oil l Multibillion dollar pipelines are planned to India l Iran has agreed to temporary halt to nuclear reprocessing capability (but continues? ) l China backs Iran for oil in the UN Security Council l Difficult political problem; Russia supplies nuclear materials to Iran l Striving for independent nuclear capability 081218

2 a. 2. 5. 1. 2 China l China developing more hydro, wind, and solar energy l Three Gorges dam has 26 turbines x 700 MW = 18 000 GW and has 175 m height [Renewable Energy World, Nov/Dec 04] l Greatly increased Chinese car and truck production demands more gasoline and diesel; they compete on the World market for oil l Gains minority stake in Russia’s Yukos oil l Tried to buy California SOCAL oil company but blocked by US government 080105

2 a. 2. 5. 1. 3 India l India developing more hydro, wind, and solar energy l Deregulating coal to increase production 1/11/07 l Greatly increased car and truck production demands more gasoline and diesel; they, too, compete on World market l Tata Motors selling a US$2500 car that attracts more first-time car owners l India’s population growing faster than China and will soon surpass China in population and energy demands 081218

2 a. 2. 5. 1. 4 Russia l Russian Gazprom withheld NG from Ukraine, but European Union gas is supplied at west end; now resolved after two weeks ~1/20/09 090120 http: //images. angelpub. com/2008/10/226/russia-europe-pipelines. gif

2 a. 2. 5. 1. 4 a Ukraine Effects “THE SITUATION IN TRANS-DNIESTER [Moldova] HAS BEEN VERY BAD FOR MORE THAN A WEEK. WE GOT OUR HEATING BACK THIS MORNING, A WEEK AFTER IT WAS TURNED OFF. AND WE ARE STILL WITHOUT GAS FOR COOKING. WE CAN'T COOK ANYTHING NOW AND WHAT WE EAT REMINDS ME OF THE STUDENT DAYS. WE HAD A BREAD CRISIS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. PEOPLE STARTED BUYING BREAD IN PANIC AS THERE WERE FEARS THAT THE BAKERIES WILL STOP WORKING. THERE WERE LONG QUEUES FOR BREAD IN THE MORNING AND THEN YOU COULDN'T FIND BREAD ANYWHERE. THE VACATION FOR SCHOOLCHILDREN HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL NEXT WEEK. MY MUM IS A TEACHER AND SHE GOES TO SCHOOL ONLY TO DO ADMIN WORK. MORE AND MORE PEOPLE ARE GETTING SICK. PHARMACISTS SAY THEY'VE BEEN SELLING MORE MEDICINE FOR COLD AND FLU. THE DISPUTE BETWEEN RUSSIA AND UKRAINE IS CONTINUING AND PEOPLE ARE VERY ANGRY. PEOPLE SAY THAT IT HASN'T BEEN SO BAD FOR 40 YEARS. AS OUR REGION IS VERY PRO-RUSSIAN, EVERYONE BLAMES UKRAINE FOR OUR SUFFERING. “ --- Maria Droganova 090115 http: //news. bbc. co. uk/2/hi/europe/7830947. stm

2 a. 2. 5. 1. 5 US General Energy Costs Type Cost $ per k. W to build plant Cost per k. Wh Wave $650, 000 “very low” , <3 - 10¢? Coal $1500 3¢ Natural Gas $900 3. 5¢ Solar $1500 12¢ Wind $3000 3. 6¢ Geothermal $1300 - 2500 2. 5 - 10¢ Ocean Thermal $1500 unknown Biomass $700 -1800 unknown ON&T, 11/22/05 p. 48 070111

2 a. 2. 5. 1. 5 Other Areas of Interest l Europe: Onshore and offshore wind turbines; High fuel taxes l Greece: Solar, wind, geothermal, biomass = greatest use of renewable energy in Europe l Bolivia: Socialist president elected 12/18/2005 l Hydrogen can be electrolyzed for sale at $4 to $15 per kg l PA 680 MW solar Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) by 2020 0512221

2 a. 2. 5. 1. 5 The Pickens Plan l Oil man T. Boone Pickens has invested $58 million in advertising his plan to get us off foreign oil u Build windfarms through the Great Plains (pulled back when oil price fell) u Use natural gas to power 350, 000 18 -wheeler trucks with compressed natural gas in three years u. Has met with the chief politicians to push his plan (helps to be a billionaire) 100121 http: //www. pickensplan. com/

2 a. 2. 5. 1. 5 The Pickens Plan http: //www. pickensplan. com/? bcpid 1842760405? bclid=1842745810&bctid=1653634930&page=white http: //link. brightcove. com/services/link/bcpid 1842760405/bctid 6806990001 Start a chapter: http: //push. pickensplan. com/state. Home. php/FL Monthly Oil Imports Barrels of Oil Imported by the U. S. 379. 6 million in December 2008 % Imported from Foreign Countries 66. 5% in December 2008 Money Sent Overseas $19. 3 Billion in December 2008 090115 http: //www. pickensplan. com/

2 a. 2. 5. 2 State of Florida Energy l Florida has “Action Team”, Energy Commission, FEO, D of Ag biofuel program, FDEP, Public Service Commission l Gov. Crist held climate change conference in Miami with Gov. Schwarzenegger l Florida has extensive biomass that could be used for thermal or electrical generation u Sugar cane bagasse for ethanol or chip wood for “cellulosic methanol” u Enviros fighting biofuels due to land, emissions, etc. l Solar energy in Melbourne is approximately 4. 7 equivalent sun hours per day due to rain storms, cloudiness, etc. while Arizona has 6 to 7 l Florida is rated “marginal” or Class 2 for wind energy, though possibly offshore Jacksonville, it is much higher at Class 3 -4 l PSC 10 -year outlook report by a contractor l 1990, 11% NG; 2005, 30%; 2014, 44% l 2005, 10% nuclear; new plant in 2015? l Gov. Crist running for Senator and changed interests 100121

2 a. 2. 5. 2 State of Florida Energy l Florida resources: biomass, solar, wind, ocean current u. Florida Atlantic Univ. researching Gulf Stream Energy l FPSC report prepared by Navigant Consulting, Inc. of Burlington MA developing utility rules, PSC recommended, goes to FL legislature l Gov. Crist wants 20% RE by 2020, but 2041 seems more likely; still, PSC now recommends “ 20% by 2020”; nice motto is cheaper than analysis l Study shows 27% by 2020 best case to 6% by 2020 worst case! 100121

Sent: Tuesday, January 13, 2009 12: 44 PM To: BEST-L@LISTS. UFL. EDU Subject: Renewable energy gets push in Florida Legislature The Miami Herald, Monday, January 12, 2009 "TALLAHASSEE -- Florida electric companies would have to rely on an increasingly heavy mix of wind, solar and biomass to generate their power over the next 11 years, under a proposed rule state regulators voted to send to the Legislature late Thursday. Calling their decision ''historic, '' the Florida Public Service Commission unanimously voted to send the Legislature the proposal that calls for 20 percent of their fuel mix to come from renewable energy sources by 2020. They also agreed that consumers could be charged up to 3 percent more in order to jumpstart the market for the clean technologies The commission's draft rule would require that 75 percent of the renewable energy fee go to finance solar and wind production and 25 percent go to finance biomass production. The Legislature can approve or reject the recommendation before the rule takes effect. The rule also recommends the following goals: * 7 percent of the fuel used by power companies come from renewable energy sources by 2013, 18 percent by 2019 and 20 percent by 2020; * commissioners will review the goals every three years; * penalties for companies that fail to meet the goals; The vote was a victory for Gov. Charlie Crist who first recommended the ''20 percent by 2020'' standard and won plaudits from the environmental and alternative energy industires. But PSC staff concluded last year that wasn't achievable until 2041. Florida got 3. 6 percent of its electricity from alternative energy as of 2007, the commission said. The commission hired a private consulting company, Navigant, to conduct a thorough study and market analysis. Navigant concluded that Florida could reach at least 24 percent of its energy portfolio from renewable energy by 2020 with the right incentives. The commission also recommended that the Legislature exclude nuclear energy from the 20 percent requirement, something Florida Power & Light and other large utility companies fought hard to get. " http: //www. miamiherald. com/news/environment/resources/story/846750. html

2 a. 3 Past Energy Events (older than ~1 year) l US Congress battled with Senate over 2007 Energy Act l Politics shifted, and changes in renewable and other energy issues continue to be revised l Individual states acting together to bypass Federal lagging in energy and GHG action l “Laws are like sausages, it is better not to see them being made. ” – Otto von Bismarck u “But what we will do is, we'll have the negotiations televised on C-SPAN, so that people can see who is making arguments on behalf of their constituents, and who are making arguments on behalf of the drug companies or the insurance companies. ”– Pres. Obama re health care bill [didn’t happen] u Back room Washington deals protect the public from seeing laws being made – FRL 100121

2 a Conclusion: Recent Events l The primary event has been soaring and plummeting energy prices, the falling dollar, and the World sinking into recession l Passage of the 2008 Energy Policy Act, etc. l GM, Ford, and Chrysler closing some dealerships as they are losing business to fuel efficient cars and trucks; sales declining u Ford surviving but GM and Chrysler recovering from bankruptcy l Utilities must keep ~15% margin over increasing power demand; build more plants l Energy plants NG use competes with home heating, and cost is rising with demand; 15% imported; needed LNG importation fought by environmentalists l Oil was at $26. 01 as of 12/12/2002; $97 on 1/2/08; $147 falling to $36 on 12/18/08, $76 on 1/21/2010 l China and India will soon surpass US in energy emissions as their population rises and demand increases 100121

Olin Engineering Complex 4. 7 k. W Solar PV Roof Array Questions? Earlier slides may follow this page 070111

2 a References: Books l Boyle, Godfrey. Renewable Energy: Power for a Sustainable Future, Second Ed. Oxford: Oxford Univ. Press, 452 pp. , 2004. l Brower, Michael. Cool Energy. Cambridge MA: The MIT Press, 1992. 0 -262 -02349 -0, TJ 807. 9. U 6 B 76, 333. 79’ 4’ 0973. l Sørensen, Bent. Renewable Energy, Second Edition. San Diego: Academic Press, 2000, 911 pp. ISBN 0 -12656152 -4. l Crichton, Michael. State of Fear. NY: Harper. Collins Publishers, Inc. , 603 pp. , 2004. 0 -06 -621413 -0. 041231

2. a References: Websites, other www. iaea. or. at/ International Atomic Energy Agency http: //www. eia. doe. gov/emeu/ipsr/contents. html Energy Information Agency NPR radio, CNN news, Fox News Channel, MSNBC News www. mms. gov/offshore/Renewable. Energy. Main. htm _____________ awea-windnet@yahoogroups. com. Wind Energy elist awea-wind-home@yahoogroups. com. Wind energy home powersite elist geothermal. marin. org/ on geothermal energy www. dieoff. org. Site devoted to the decline of energy and effects upon population www. google. com/search? q=%22 renewable+energy+course%22 solstice. crest. org/ dataweb. usbr. gov/html/powerplant_selection. html http: //www. unc. edu/~rowlett/units/index. html -- a good units definition site http: //www. cia. gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/ir. html -- quick country guide http: //syrianamovie. warnerbros. com/ http: //www. Campus. Climate. Challenge. com 051230

Slide stockpile follows! Older slides follow this one. Look at these if you have interest or time. It’s difficult to decide what to leave out of the lecture to save time!

President Obama’s Cabinet • Sec’y of Agriculture: Thomas J. Vilsack favors biofuels (was Gov. of Iowa --- corn state) • Sec’y of Energy: Dr. Steven Chu heads national energy labs like Nat’l Renewable Energy Lab • Sec’y of Housing and Urban Development: Shaun Donovan: weatherization, LIHEAP • Sec’y of Interior: Ken Salazar: resources on public lands • Sec’y of Transportation: Ray La. Hood: trains, roads, aircraft • Sec’y of Treasure: Timothy Geithner: taxes and enforcement • Sec’y of Defense: Robert Gates: Remote power, “One Fuel”, aircraft fuel • Sec’y of Commerce: Gary Locke, economics and trade • Attorney General: Eric Holder: legal aspects, taxes • Administrator, EPA: Lisa Jackson: GHG, pollution, etc. 100112

Energy News Headlines as of 1/2008 Toyota Highlander l 12/07 Congress passes 2007 Energy Act and Pres. Bush signs it. l 12/07 Auto Show news of Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles coming in 20082009 l ~12/07 E 85 panned and praised. Better solution may be diesel l 12/27/07 Assassination of Pakistan’s former prime minister Benizar Bhutto causes spike in crude oil futures l 12/28/07 Companies hiring likely “include wind, battery, and solar energy firms and hydrogen” l 1/2/08 Oil breaks $100/bbl; falls back during session u Nigerian violence, Mexican disruption, price up 60% in 2007 l FPL continues to develop and operate the majority (40%) of US windfarms l More windfarms erected in the West and Great Plains of US l Xcel Energy will add 775 MW wind plant to 282 MW in CO; sells to SCE & PG&E in CA --- AWEA l Canada to install 7000 MW by 2013 [Renewable Energy News] 080105

2 a. 4. 1 Energy Fiction Book l Michael Crichton wrote “State of Fear” about tsunamis and climate change, finishing ~September 2004 u Conspirators, media manipulation, killings, romance, adventure, eco-terrorists, shady orchestrators of environmental organizations, billionaire funding u Characters in the story provide footnotes as references! u Scientific uncertainty is discussed; graphs presented u Crichton appendix states his feelings on science & bias u Twenty-page bibliography u Number 2 on New York Times best-seller list 1/11/2005 l Crichton quotes Mark Twain: “There is something fascinating about science. One gets such wholesale returns of conjecture out of such a trifling investment of fact. ” l Book attacked by environmentalists and global warming aficionados 100112

2 a. 4. 2 Energy Movies l “Syriana” released in December 2005 u. Story of oil peak, intrigue, and manipulation in the Middle East; corrupt companies and individuals u. Starring George Clooney plays CIA agent, and is a Palestinian prime minister look-alike u. Alexander Siddig (Dr. Bashir of “Star Trek: Deep Space Nine”) plays an ethical good prince of Syriana who gets killed for wanting best interests for his country’s people uhttp: //syrianamovie. warnerbros. com/ l “China Syndrome” atomic meltdown starring Jane Fonda l “Cold Fusion” (it’s still fiction!) 070107