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14 DECISION MAKING IN A DIGITAL AGE 1 14 DECISION MAKING IN A DIGITAL AGE 1

Review of Decision Making • Stages – – Intelligence Design Choice Implementation • Models Review of Decision Making • Stages – – Intelligence Design Choice Implementation • Models – Rational – Cognitive • Systematic • Intuitive - Bureaucratic - Political - Garbage Can 2

Decision Support Systems Management level computer system combines data, models, user – friendly software Decision Support Systems Management level computer system combines data, models, user – friendly software for semistructured & unstructured decision making • Model-driven DSS – Performs “what-if” analysis • Data-driven DSS: Permit extraction & analysis of large pools of data. Includes tools for: – on-line analytical processing (OLAP) – Datamining 3

OLAP • Powerful querying tools for reporting on data • Top down approach that OLAP • Powerful querying tools for reporting on data • Top down approach that is user driven • Ex: show me total sales of canister and upright vacuum cleaners for the past three years. • Typically deals with dimensions relating to firms’ products, locations and times • Time-->year-->quarter-->month-->week-->days • Location-->country-->region-->province-->city ->store 4

OLAP ctd. • Ex. Total sales of books for western canada for fall ‘ OLAP ctd. • Ex. Total sales of books for western canada for fall ‘ 01 Product Amount Region Time All Books $3, 264, 329 Western canada Fall ‘ 01 Product Amount Region Time Fiction $1, 847, 000 Western canada Fall ‘ 01 Non Fiction $657, 000 Western canada Fall ‘ 01 Periodicals $425, 000 Western canada Fall ‘ 01 5

Datamining • Automatically find hidden patterns & relationships in large databases – Associations: associate Datamining • Automatically find hidden patterns & relationships in large databases – Associations: associate a particular conclusion (ex. Purchase of a product) with a set of conditions (ex. Purchase of other products) – Classification/Prediction: patterns that describe a group that exhibits certain behaviour (ex. Credit card co. can determine class of customer who is likely to leave to another co. ) – Sequences: events that are linked over time (ex. After purchase of new tv, within 3 months a dvd player is purchased 30% of the time) 6

How Does Datamining Work? • Neural Networks: hardware/software that emulates processing patterns of the How Does Datamining Work? • Neural Networks: hardware/software that emulates processing patterns of the human brain. – Excellent for classifications • Genetic Algorithms (more next week) • Case-Based Reasoning • Machine Learning 7

DSS Components #1 • DSS database – Frequently data drawn from TPS or data DSS Components #1 • DSS database – Frequently data drawn from TPS or data warehouse – Usually a subset of all the data – May be combined with external data (e. g. , prime rate) • DSS software system – Models: abstractions of reality to represent the real thing • • Physical (3 -D) Mathematical (y=mx+b) Verbal or narrative (explanatory paragraph or article) Graphical (chart or diagram) 8

DSS Components #2 – Libraries of statistical models • • Statistical (means, std. deviations) DSS Components #2 – Libraries of statistical models • • Statistical (means, std. deviations) Financial (NPV, ROI) Optimization (maximize revenues, minimize costs) Forecasting (trends from historical data) – What-if & sensitivity analysis – OLAP tools: software to assist the user in OLAP – Datamining tools: software to assist the user in extracting & analyzing data from a data warehouse • User interface: typically Windows based (a few are menu based) – User: must be trained in using the DSS 9

Examples of DSS #1 • Help people with disabilities make work transition decisions (Work. Examples of DSS #1 • Help people with disabilities make work transition decisions (Work. WORLD) • Supply chain management – Economic order quantity determination – Production & shipping schedules • Customer relationship management – Customer profiling and retention – Web site design, dynamic page execution plan 10

Examples of DSS #2 • Geographic information systems (GIS) – Analyze & display data Examples of DSS #2 • Geographic information systems (GIS) – Analyze & display data for decision making using digital maps, including modeling capabilities – Example: traffic flow, crime analysis. • Web-based – On-line access to DSS & DSS data & models – Example: assist customer in determining investment portfolio allocation 11

Group Decision Support Systems (GDSS) • An interactive, computer-based information systems that facilitates solution Group Decision Support Systems (GDSS) • An interactive, computer-based information systems that facilitates solution of problems by a set of decision makers working together as a group • Arose out of concern about problems with meetings – Too many – Too long – Too many attendees • Group Think 12

Tools of GDSS • • • Electronic questionnaires Electronic brainstorming tools Idea organizers Tools Tools of GDSS • • • Electronic questionnaires Electronic brainstorming tools Idea organizers Tools for voting, setting priorities Policy formation Group dictionaries 13

Electronic Meeting System (EMS) • Collaborative GDSS – Uses information technology to make group Electronic Meeting System (EMS) • Collaborative GDSS – Uses information technology to make group meetings more productive by facilitating communication as well as decision making – Meetings can be at same place and time, or different place and time 14

GDSS Enhance Group Decision Making • • • Improved pre-planning Increased participation Open, collaborative GDSS Enhance Group Decision Making • • • Improved pre-planning Increased participation Open, collaborative atmosphere Evaluation objectivity Idea organization & evaluation 15

GDSS Enhance Group Decision Making • Documentation of meetings • Access to external information GDSS Enhance Group Decision Making • Documentation of meetings • Access to external information • Preservation of organizational memory 16

What is different about executive (or top) decision making? • • External focus Time What is different about executive (or top) decision making? • • External focus Time frame (long term vs. short or medium term) Impact on firm (survival? ) Who are executives stereotypically? – Older – Not part of the “computer generation” – Not comfortable with “hands-on” technology? 17

Executive Support Systems (ESS) • Aid top managers in making decisions – – – Executive Support Systems (ESS) • Aid top managers in making decisions – – – – External focus/data Long term focus Ability to drill down User-friendly GUI (graphical user interface) Customized to user Use of graphics & models to present information Can be used for communication & scheduling among executives 18

Benefits of ESS • Free executives from gathering data & putting together models • Benefits of ESS • Free executives from gathering data & putting together models • Allows executives to focus on the issues at hand • Timeliness & availability of data 19

ESS Example: Balanced Scorecard • Supplements traditional financial models with measurements from additional biz ESS Example: Balanced Scorecard • Supplements traditional financial models with measurements from additional biz perspectives – Customer perspective – Internal perspective – Learning and Growth perspective • What you measure is what you get 20

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