1 st MEDCOF 10 st SEECOF Sources

1 st MEDCOF & 10 st SEECOF Sources for Climate outlook for winter season 2013/14 Dragan Mihić RHMS of Serbia / SEEVCCC

Climate outlook for winter season Based on: • ECMWF – The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts • EUROSIP • RCM-SEEVCCC – Regional Climate Model of the South East European Virtual Climate Change Center • WMOLC-MME – WMO Lead Centre for Long-Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble • IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society

Climate outlook for winter season 2013/14 for Serbia - temperature T ECMWF NS EUROSIP AN RCMSEEVCCC AN WMOLC AN east and central Serbia NS No Signal BN Below Normal AN Above Normal

Climate outlook for winter season 2013/14 for Serbia - precipitation RR ECMWF NS for north BN EUROSIP NS RCMSEEVCCC N to BN in southwest WMOLC No Signal BN NS NS Below Normal N Normal

Climate outlook for winter season 2013/14 for Serbia - conclusion • Normally cold and humid winter for the most of the country • Somewhat warmer in northern and western regions • Precipitation deficit in western and south-western parts

Climate outlook for winter season 2013/14 for SEECOF region - ECMWF • No signal for temperature and almost for precipitation • Exceptions: - island of Crete and east cost of Mediterranean, above normal temp. - some parts of central Balkans, below normal precipitation; western part of central Turkey, islands of Crete and Cyprus, above normal precip.

Climate outlook for winter season 2013/14 for SEECOF region - EUROSIP • Aabove normal over Balkan Peninsula, no signal for temperature over other parts of SEECOF region • No clear signal for precipitation

Climate outlook for winter season 2013/14 for SEECOF region - SEEVCCC • Above normal temperature: northern half of Balkan Peninsula, central and easternmost parts of Turkey and Caucasus region • Precipitation: - Above: Carpathian Mountains, Caucasus region, Adriatic and Black Sea coasts - Below: western and southern parts of both Balkan Peninsula and Turkey - Normal: all other parts

Climate outlook for winter season 2013/14 for SEECOF region – WMOLC-MME • Temperature: above normal in Israel, on Carpathian mountains, western, south-western and south Balkan Peninsula • Precipitation: no signal for the most of region, below normal on Cyprus, above normal in central part of south Caucasus region

Climate outlook for winter season 2013/14 for SEECOF region – IRI Temperature: above normal most part of Balkans, Middle east and Caucasus region Precipitation, no clear signal

Climate outlook for winter season 2013/14 – comparing with the last winter

Climate outlook for winter season 2013/14 - conclusion • use EUROSIP/ WMOLC-MME for the moment • consensus on reference period, standardize products to be used • maybe sub-regions and sub-season

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