1 Poverty and Social Exclusion in N Ireland

1 Poverty and Social Exclusion in N. Ireland Legacies of Conflict Mike Tomlinson Queen’s University Belfast m. tomlinson@qub. ac. uk Third Peter Townsend Memorial Conference Poverty and Social Exclusion in the UK

2 Introduction to the Troubles section “The next set of questions is about your experience of the Troubles. This includes questions about physical injury you personally experienced or the injury or death to a close friend or relative. Questions about imprisonment are also included. If you feel uncomfortable answering these questions, then you do not need to answer them. All answers will be kept strictly confidential. Are you willing to answer questions about your experience of the Troubles? ” 1. YES 79. 7% 2. NO 20. 3% 1165 cases

3 Declined to answer Troubles questions 75+ 65 -74 55 -64 45 -54 35 -44 25 -34 18 -24 3 adults with children Couples with children Lone parents Couple/ 3+ adults Single adults Pensioners Protestant Catholic Female Male All 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

4 Poverty by willingness to answer Troubles questions 50 1. 8 45 1. 6 40 1. 4 35 1. 2 30 1 25 0. 8 20 0. 6 15 10 0. 4 5 0. 2 0 0 OOM All. Some Dep. Grp 3+ PSEarop Poorgrp Yes No Risk ratio

5 EPV Index 21 Items 1. Death and Injury Did you experience…? Someone killed (3) % of adults A close friend was killed 10. 6 A close relative was killed 9. 9 Someone else you knew personally was killed 24. 9 Did you experience…? Someone physically injured (4) % of adults I was injured 3. 9 A close friend was injured 10. 3 A close relative was injured 11. 6 Someone else you knew personally was injured 20. 7

6 EPV Index 21 Items 2. Witnessing violence Did you witness…? Violent event (6) % of adults A bomb explosion 33. 0 Rioting 35. 5 A murder 3. 0 Gunfire 22. 6 Someone being assaulted 19. 6 Other serious violence 10. 0

7 EPV Index 21 Items 3. Prison Knowing who spent time in prison…? (5) [Knowing anyone who spent time in prison] Spent time in prison: yourself % of adults [19. 1] 0. 7 close friend 5. 0 close relative 5. 3 other relative… 4. 5

8 EPV Index 21 Items 3. Other events…? (3) % of adults Moved house due to attack, intimidation, threats… 4. 4 Left job due to attack, intimidation, threats… 3. 7 House searched by police/army (frequency) 9. 2

9 14 items, 7 sig. Close friend killed Close relative killed Someone else killed Close friend injured Close relative injured Someone else injured Witnessed bomb Witnessed gunfire Witnessed rioting Witnessed assault Witnessed other serious violence House searched Known prisoner Close relative prisoner

10 13 items, 12 sig. Close friend killed Close relative killed Someone else killed Close friend injured Close relative injured Someone else injured Witnessed bomb Witnessed gunfire Witnessed rioting Witnessed assault Witnessed other serious violence Known prisoner House searched

11 Deprivation (3+) rates for Troubles events All adults (%) 26 Close friend killed Close relative injured Witnessed an assault Close relative was in prison House searched by police or army (at least once) Moved house due to attack, intimidation, threats or harassment 36 38 43 45 56 58

A 99 8 r 1 fte 8 -1 99 19 94 19 93 89 - 19 19 88 84 - 19 19 83 79 - 19 19 78 74 - 19 3 -1 97 19 69 12 Distribution of 'worst events' by time period (%) 25 20 15 10 5 0

13 Distribution of 'worst events' by time period (%) 25 35 Deaths 30 20 25 15 20 15 10 10 5 5 0 99 8 8 A fte r 1 -1 99 19 94 19 93 89 19 19 88 84 19 19 83 79 19 74 19 19 69 -1 97 3 19 78 0

14 Creating Experience of Political Violence Index (EPV) Which items? Reliability: 21 items – Chronbach’s Alpha =. 820 Validity:

15 Risk of longstanding illness or disability. EPV item Risk ratio 1. 8 House searched by police/army 1. 7 Close friend killed 1. 6 Who in prison? Close friend 1. 6 Witnessed gunfire 1. 5 Close friend injured 1. 5 Self injured 1. 5 Someone else killed 1. 5 Witnessed bomb explosion 1. 4 Witnessed assault 14 items, statistically significant Moved house due to threat. . . 1. 3 Close relative injured 1. 3 Witnessed rioting 1. 3 Witnessed other serious violence 1. 3

16 Creating Experience of Political Violence Index (EPV) Which items? Reliability: 21 items – Chronbach’s Alpha =. 820 Validity: How to combine? Weight by established scales? Prevalence weight? Simple yes/no addition How to band scores?

17 Experience of Political Violence: intensity scores (21 variables)

18 Experience of Political Violence: intensity scores, banded L O W MODERATE HIGH

19 Profile of EPV bands EPV band % EPV selected items Adults CRK CRI Bomb Assaul Gun t Searc h Pris. C R Mv. Hse High 18. 9 29 39 79 58 75 32 18 14 Moderate 19. 0 11 13 48 24 30 13 - - Low 31. 9 8 0 28 13 9 2 - - None 30. 2 0 0 0 0 CRK – Close Relative Killed CRI – Close Relative physically Injured Bomb, Assault, Gun – Witnessed a bombing, assault, gunfire Search – House was searched by police/army Pris. CR – Close Relative was in Prison Mv. Hse – Moved house due to attack, intimidation, threats or harassment

20 EPV by reported longstanding illness or disability 50 45 R 2 = 0. 8667 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 None Low Moderate High

21 EPV by self-reported health, ‘bad’ and ‘very bad’ 16 14 R 2 = 0. 9115 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 None Low Moderate High

22 EPV by self-reported health, ‘good’ and ‘very good’ 90 80 R 2 = 0. 9103 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 None Low Moderate High

23 EPV by life satisfaction (average scores) 8. 00 7. 80 7. 60 Ave 7. 40 7. 20 R 2 = 0. 9257 7. 00 6. 80 6. 60 6. 40 6. 20 6. 00 None Low Moderate High

24 Age bands by EPV ‘None’ and ‘High’ 45 40 35 30 25 None 20 High 15 10 5 0 18 -34 35 -44 45 -54 55 -64 65+

25 Age bands by EPV ‘None’ and ‘High’

26 EPV by perceived poverty Poor 'All the time'/'sometimes' 40 38 36 34 R 2 = 0. 9357 32 30 28 None Low Moderate High

27 EPV by ‘lived in poverty in the past’ ‘Occasionally’, ‘often’ and ‘most of the time’ 50 45 R 2 = 0. 5428 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 None Low Moderate High

28 EPV by enforced lack of 3 or more necessities 40. 00 35. 00 R 2 = 0. 9912 30. 00 25. 00 20. 00 15. 00 10. 00 5. 00 0. 00 None Low Moderate High

29 EPV by PSE ‘poverty’ and ‘at risk of poverty’ 30. 00 PSE poverty rate PSE at risk of poverty 25. 00 20. 00 15. 00 10. 00 5. 00 0. 00 None Low Moderate High

30 Logistic regression shows: Age, gender, household type and religion have statistically significant effect on the likelihood of moderate/high EPV (but model is weak – Nagelkerke R square 0. 16) 45 -54 age band is 4. 9 x more likely to have a moderate/high EPV than the 18 -35 age group (controlling for the other factors) Men are 2. 4 times as likely to have a moderate/high EPV than women (controlling for the other factors) Couples with children are less likely than pensioners to have a moderate/high EPV but lone parents are 2. 5 times as likely (controlling for the other factors) Catholics are 1. 4 times as likely to have moderate/high EPV than Protestants (controlling for the other factors)

31 Logistic regression models with poverty variables: Those who said they lived in poverty in the past (‘occasionally’, ‘often’, ‘most of the time’) are 1. 3 times as likely to have a moderate/high EPV than those who ‘never’ lived in poverty (controlling for age, gender, religion and household type) Deprivation (lacking 3 or more necessities) increases the likelihood of moderate/high EPV by 1. 8 times (controlling for age, gender, religion and household type) The PSE poor have significantly higher odds of having a moderate/high EPV than the non-poor (controlling for age, gender, religion and household type) (but the factor is low at 1. 13)

32 Proportion of children and adults by EPV bands 100% 90% 19. 4 18. 9 21. 2 19 25. 9 31. 9 33. 5 30. 2 Children Adults high 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% Moderate Low 30% 20% 10% 0% None

33 The next generation Ø 1 in 5 children are growing up households with an adult who has ‘high’ EPV Ø 26. 6 per cent of children in N. Ireland are in PSE poverty (N= 120, 000) Ø 31 per cent of children in PSE poverty live with an adult with ‘high’ or ‘moderate’ EPV Ø 1 in 4 children in ‘high’ EPV households are in PSE poverty (N=22, 000)

34 The next generation Ø 40 per cent of children in N. Ireland are in households lacking 3 or more necessities* Ø 13 per cent of all children in N. Ireland live with an adult with ‘high’ or ‘moderate’ EPV and lack 3 or more necessities* Ø 37 per cent of children in ‘high’ EPV households lack 3 or more necessities* (N=30, 000) *44 adult and child items