1 Lecture 3 – Trend Analysis Uptrend November 22, 2004 - February 3, 2005 Walt Disney - Daily Smaller Trend Kirkpatrick & Dahlquist Chart 12. 1 Larger Trend This lecture series is produced by the Market Technicians Association Educational Foundation based on the detailed class notes of Charles D. Kirkpatrick II, CMT Copyright © 2007. All rights are reserved. Stock. Charts. com MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets © 2007
2 Lecture 3 – Trend Analysis Peaks and Troughs Used to Determine Trend December 6, 2004 - February 9, 2005 Walt Disney - Daily Peak Kirkpatrick & Dahlquist Chart 12. 2 Trough This lecture series is produced by the Market Technicians Association Educational Foundation based on the detailed class notes of Charles D. Kirkpatrick II, CMT Copyright © 2007. All rights are reserved. Trough Stock. Charts. com MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets © 2007
3 Lecture 3 – Trend Analysis Trend Line Drawn Through Troughs December 31, 2004 - February 18, 2005 Walt Disney - Daily Kirkpatrick & Dahlquist Chart 12. 3 Trend Line (Bar Chart) This lecture series is produced by the Market Technicians Association Educational Foundation based on the detailed class notes of Charles D. Kirkpatrick II, CMT Copyright © 2007. All rights are reserved. Stock. Charts. com MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets © 2007
4 Lecture 3 – Trend Analysis Trend Line in Candlestick Chart December 31, 2004 - February 18, 2005 Walt Disney - Daily Kirkpatrick & Dahlquist Chart 12. 4 Trend Line (Candlestick Chart) This lecture series is produced by the Market Technicians Association Educational Foundation based on the detailed class notes of Charles D. Kirkpatrick II, CMT Copyright © 2007. All rights are reserved. Stock. Charts. com MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets © 2007
5 Lecture 3 – Trend Analysis Support and Resistance Zones February 7, 2005 - April 22, 2005 Walt Disney - Daily A C E Kirkpatrick & Dahlquist Chart 12. 5 F B D This lecture series is produced by the Market Technicians Association Educational Foundation based on the detailed class notes of Charles D. Kirkpatrick II, CMT Copyright © 2007. All rights are reserved. Stock. Charts. com MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets © 2007
6 Lecture 3 – Trend Analysis Reversal Points February 7, 2005 - April 22, 2005 Walt Disney - Daily B Kirkpatrick & Dahlquist Chart 12. 6 C A This lecture series is produced by the Market Technicians Association Educational Foundation based on the detailed class notes of Charles D. Kirkpatrick II, CMT Copyright © 2007. All rights are reserved. Determining Two-Bar Reversal Points Stock. Charts. com MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets © 2007
7 Lecture 3 – Trend Analysis Two-Bar Reversal August 31, 1995 - April 15, 1996 Walt Disney - Daily Two-Day Reversal One-Day Reversal Kirkpatrick & Dahlquist Chart 12. 9 This lecture series is produced by the Market Technicians Association Educational Foundation based on the detailed class notes of Charles D. Kirkpatrick II, CMT Copyright © 2007. All rights are reserved. Stock. Charts. com MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets © 2007
8 Lecture 3 – Trend Analysis High-Volume Reversal July 2, 2003 - August 27, 2003 Walt Disney - Daily Resistance Stops Rally Kirkpatrick & Dahlquist Chart 12. 8 One-Day Reversal High Volume This lecture series is produced by the Market Technicians Association Educational Foundation based on the detailed class notes of Charles D. Kirkpatrick II, CMT Copyright © 2007. All rights are reserved. Stock. Charts. com MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets © 2007
9 Lecture 3 – Trend Analysis Support and Resistance Lines February 7, 2005 - April 22, 2005 Walt Disney - Daily Resistance Line Support Line Kirkpatrick & Dahlquist Chart 12. 10 Support Line (ZONE) Support Line This lecture series is produced by the Market Technicians Association Educational Foundation based on the detailed class notes of Charles D. Kirkpatrick II, CMT Copyright © 2007. All rights are reserved. Support and resistance at Toughs and Peaks Stock. Charts. com MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets © 2007
10 Lecture 3 – Trend Analysis Regression Line and One Standard Deviation February 26, 2003 - September 11, 2003 Walt Disney - Daily Kirkpatrick & Dahlquist Chart 12. 12 Regression Line from Low to High +/- One Standard Deviation Channel This lecture series is produced by the Market Technicians Association Educational Foundation based on the detailed class notes of Charles D. Kirkpatrick II, CMT Copyright © 2007. All rights are reserved. Stock. Charts. com MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets © 2007
11 Lecture 3 – Trend Analysis Trend Line February 26, 2003 - September 11, 2003 Walt Disney - Daily Kirkpatrick & Dahlquist Chart 12. 13 Uptrend Line This lecture series is produced by the Market Technicians Association Educational Foundation based on the detailed class notes of Charles D. Kirkpatrick II, CMT Copyright © 2007. All rights are reserved. Stock. Charts. com MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets © 2007
12 Lecture 3 – Trend Analysis Accelerating Trend Line August 31, 1995 - April 15, 1996 Walt Disney - Daily Kirkpatrick & Dahlquist Chart 12. 14 Accelerating Uptrend Line This lecture series is produced by the Market Technicians Association Educational Foundation based on the detailed class notes of Charles D. Kirkpatrick II, CMT Copyright © 2007. All rights are reserved. Stock. Charts. com MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets © 2007
13 Lecture 3 – Trend Analysis Decelerating Trend or Fan Line February 1, 2000 - July 25, 2000 Walt Disney - Daily Kirkpatrick & Dahlquist Chart 12. 15 Decelerating Trend Line (or Fan Line) This lecture series is produced by the Market Technicians Association Educational Foundation based on the detailed class notes of Charles D. Kirkpatrick II, CMT Copyright © 2007. All rights are reserved. Stock. Charts. com MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets © 2007
14 Lecture 3 – Trend Analysis Trend Line with Channel Line February 26, 2003 - September 11, 2003 Walt Disney - Daily B A Kirkpatrick & Dahlquist Chart 12. 17 Uptrend Line with Channel Line This lecture series is produced by the Market Technicians Association Educational Foundation based on the detailed class notes of Charles D. Kirkpatrick II, CMT Copyright © 2007. All rights are reserved. Stock. Charts. com MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets © 2007
15 Lecture 3 – Trend Analysis Anticipating a Breakout A Resistance B Kirkpatrick & Dahlquist Chart 13. 6 C This lecture series is produced by the Market Technicians Association Educational Foundation based on the detailed class notes of Charles D. Kirkpatrick II, CMT Copyright © 2007. All rights are reserved. Price MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets © 2007
16 Lecture 3 – Trend Analysis Intra-Bar Breakout February 26, 2003 - September 11, 2003 Walt Disney - Daily Support Zone Kirkpatrick & Dahlquist Chart 13. 1 This lecture series is produced by the Market Technicians Association Educational Foundation based on the detailed class notes of Charles D. Kirkpatrick II, CMT Copyright © 2007. All rights are reserved. Intra-Bar Breakout Stock. Charts. com MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets © 2007
17 Lecture 3 – Trend Analysis Close Breakout February 26, 2003 - September 11, 2003 Walt Disney - Daily Close Breakout Support Zone Kirkpatrick & Dahlquist Chart 13. 2 This lecture series is produced by the Market Technicians Association Educational Foundation based on the detailed class notes of Charles D. Kirkpatrick II, CMT Copyright © 2007. All rights are reserved. Stock. Charts. com MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets © 2007
18 Lecture 3 – Trend Analysis Gaps With and Without Retracement August 21, 2000 - January 19, 2001 Walt Disney - Daily Gap A Kirkpatrick & Dahlquist Chart 13. 10 Gap B Gap A - No retracement = Continue Trend This lecture series is produced by the Market Technicians Association Educational Foundation based on the detailed class notes of Charles D. Kirkpatrick II, CMT Copyright © 2007. All rights are reserved. Gap B - No retracement = Reverse Trend Stock. Charts. com MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets © 2007
19 Lecture 3 – Trend Analysis Breakout Filter February 26, 2003 - September 11, 2003 Walt Disney - Daily 3% Filter Above Resistance Breakout Support Zone Kirkpatrick & Dahlquist Chart 13. 2 Breakout Above 3% Filter This lecture series is produced by the Market Technicians Association Educational Foundation based on the detailed class notes of Charles D. Kirkpatrick II, CMT Copyright © 2007. All rights are reserved. Stock. Charts. com MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets © 2007
20 Lecture 3 – Trend Analysis Breakouts to Support Levels September 17, 2001 - October 3, 2002 Walt Disney - Daily Previous and Current Objective Previous Support = Price Objective on Breakout Kirkpatrick & Dahlquist Chart 13. 12 Note: Each breakdown reaches previous support and rallies back to the breakdown level. This lecture series is produced by the Market Technicians Association Educational Foundation based on the detailed class notes of Charles D. Kirkpatrick II, CMT Copyright © 2007. All rights are reserved. Stock. Charts. com MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets © 2007
21 Lecture 3 – Trend Analysis Stop for Specialists Breakout September 3, 2003 - February 3, 2004 Walt Disney - Daily Place Stop Here Kirkpatrick & Dahlquist Chart 13. 13 Breakout This lecture series is produced by the Market Technicians Association Educational Foundation based on the detailed class notes of Charles D. Kirkpatrick II, CMT Copyright © 2007. All rights are reserved. Stock. Charts. com MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets © 2007
22 Lecture 3 – Trend Analysis Simple Moving Average February 26, 2003 - September 15, 2003 Walt Disney - Daily Regression Line One Std. Dev. about Regression Line Kirkpatrick & Dahlquist Chart 14. 1 60 -Day MA This lecture series is produced by the Market Technicians Association Educational Foundation based on the detailed class notes of Charles D. Kirkpatrick II, CMT Copyright © 2007. All rights are reserved. Stock. Charts. com MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets © 2007
23 Lecture 3 – Trend Analysis 2 Moving Averages - Crossover @ Support & Resistance Zone February 26, 2003 - September 19, 2003 Walt Disney - Daily Cross-Over Where moving averages cross is often a Support and Resistance area 20 -Day MA Kirkpatrick & Dahlquist Chart 14. 2 60 -Day MA This lecture series is produced by the Market Technicians Association Educational Foundation based on the detailed class notes of Charles D. Kirkpatrick II, CMT Copyright © 2007. All rights are reserved. Crossover is a Signal in a Trending Market Stock. Charts. com MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets © 2007
24 Lecture 3 – Trend Analysis Moving Average Crossovers Causing Whipsaws November 30, 2000 - July 1, 2001 Walt Disney - Daily Whipsaw in Flat Trends with SMAs Buy Kirkpatrick & Dahlquist Chart 14. 3 Buy Sell 60 -Day MA 20 -Day MA This lecture series is produced by the Market Technicians Association Educational Foundation based on the detailed class notes of Charles D. Kirkpatrick II, CMT Copyright © 2007. All rights are reserved. Stock. Charts. com MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets © 2007
25 Lecture 3 – Trend Analysis Trend Line versus Simple Moving Average February 26, 2003 - September 15, 2003 Walt Disney - Daily Kirkpatrick & Dahlquist Chart 14. 5 This lecture series is produced by the Market Technicians Association Educational Foundation based on the detailed class notes of Charles D. Kirkpatrick II, CMT Copyright © 2007. All rights are reserved. 60 -Day SMA Trend Line Stock. Charts. com MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets © 2007
26 Lecture 3 – Trend Analysis Ratio of Current Price to Moving Average December 2004 - July 2005 Walt Disney - Daily Kirkpatrick & Dahlquist Chart 14. 6 Close/20 -Day SMA This lecture series is produced by the Market Technicians Association Educational Foundation based on the detailed class notes of Charles D. Kirkpatrick II, CMT Copyright © 2007. All rights are reserved. Sell for Return to Mean Sell Buy for Return to Mean Source: Trade. Station MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets © 2007
27 Lecture 3 – Trend Analysis Directional Movement Indicators December 2004 - July 2005 Walt Disney - Daily 14 -Day SMA P 1 Kirkpatrick & Dahlquist Chart 14. 8 P This lecture series is produced by the Market Technicians Association Educational Foundation based on the detailed class notes of Charles D. Kirkpatrick II, CMT Copyright © 2007. All rights are reserved. 14 -Day ADX DMI + DMI 1 P P 2 P Stock. Charts. com MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets © 2007
28 Lecture 3 – Trend Analysis Envelope About a Moving Average December 4, 2000 - June 16, 2001 Walt Disney - Daily 60 -Day SMA with 7% Envelope Sell Short Cover Sell Short Cover Kirkpatrick & Dahlquist Chart 14. 9 This lecture series is produced by the Market Technicians Association Educational Foundation based on the detailed class notes of Charles D. Kirkpatrick II, CMT Copyright © 2007. All rights are reserved. Buy Buy Stock. Charts. com During a flat trend, enter when price breaks in envelope, exit when price breaks out of envelope MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets © 2007
29 Lecture 3 – Trend Analysis Bollinger Bands December 4, 2000 - June 26, 2001 Walt Disney - Daily 20 -Day SMA with 2 Std. Dev. Bands (Bollinger Bands) Kirkpatrick & Dahlquist Chart 14. 10 This lecture series is produced by the Market Technicians Association Educational Foundation based on the detailed class notes of Charles D. Kirkpatrick II, CMT Copyright © 2007. All rights are reserved. Stock. Charts. com MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets © 2007
30 Lecture 3 – Trend Analysis Uptrend February 26, 2003 - September 11, 2003 Peak Walt Disney - Daily Peak Kirkpatrick & Dahlquist Chart 12. 11 Trough This lecture series is produced by the Market Technicians Association Educational Foundation based on the detailed class notes of Charles D. Kirkpatrick II, CMT Copyright © 2007. All rights are reserved. Trough Stock. Charts. com MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets © 2007
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