1 1 Estimating London s New Migrant Population BSPS

1 1 Estimating London’s New Migrant Population BSPS Seminar, GLA May 2 nd 2006 Professor Philip Rees Dr Peter Boden

2 This presentation • Context 2 • Project objectives • Concepts & definitions • TIM Model & National Statistics • Data Sources • New Migrant Databank – an analytical framework?

3 3 Context

4 Components of UK Population Change 4 Natural Increase Net migration and other changes • Over 65% of UK’s annual increase is now attributable to net Sources: Population estimates: ONS, GRO for Scotland, NISRA international migration.

5 European GDP per Capita in PPS, 2005 (EU-25=100) 5 Source: Eurostat (2005)

6 Headline Statistics • 2004 582, 000 new migrants to the UK, a total net-inflow of 223, 000. 6 • 2005 -2030 Net international inflow is projected to remain at a relatively high level for the next 25 years 2. • 1994 -2003 Net inflow of over 700, 000 migrants to Greater London, approximately two-thirds of the national total.

7 GAD – Population projections 7 Source: GAD (2005)

8 Measurement 8 There is not a single, all-inclusive system in place to measure movements of population into or out of the UK. ONS, Series MN 2004

9 Statistical harmonisation EU Regulation 9 • The regulation will require EU Member States to produce annually, a full set of statistics on international migration and asylum (from 2007) THESIM • Towards Harmonised European Statistics on International Migration • Analysis of the implications of the new EU Regulation and a series of recommendations for implementation

10 10 Project Objectives

11 Service Provision • For London, the need to adequately plan its service provision is critical to the socio-economic development of its communities 11 • Housing, transport, health, environment • A key driver is robust measurement of the new migrant population, including refugees and asylum seekers. • Scale, composition, distribution

12 GLA Requirements 12

13 13 Project Approach

14 Collaborative 14 Benchmark – Summarise the new migrant statistical picture (availability, consistency, quality) Sponsor – Understand GLA methodologies and data sources Stakeholders – Incorporate views of other London stakeholder bodies National Bodies / UK Regions – Integrate review process with activities and requirements of other stakeholder bodies

15 15 Migration Process Concepts & Definitions

16 UK International Passenger Arrivals and Departures Including Migration Flows 16

17 Definitions 17 Long-term migrant (UN definition) • A person whose country of usual residence changes for a period of 12 mths or more • Basis for UK statistics on total annual immigration and emigration Short-term migrant • A person whose country of usual residence changes for a period of 3 -12 months • Not part of the UK statistics delivery

18 Concepts Stocks 18 • Resident migrants Flows • New migrants

19 Flows - Moves or Transitions 19 Moves e. g. GP registration Transitions e. g. Census

20 20 TIM – National Statistics

21 TIM Methodology 21

22 TIM estimates 22 Source: ONS (2005)

23 NSQR Initiatives Short-term vs long-term migrants • 23 Introduction of new IPS question in 2004 to identify short-term migrants with an intended length of stay of 3 -6 months Household surveys to estimate sub-national distributions • Census, LFS & IPS NHS administrative data to estimate sub-national distributions • Initial investigation looks promising for in-migrant estimation but not for emigration due to poor coverage.

24 24 Measuring Migration UK Data Sources

25 Evaluating each data source… 25

26 Migration Data Sources: Key Features 26

27 Migration Data Sources: Key Variables 27

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30 ONS Analysis – IPS/LFS/Census LFS vs Census 30 • Comparison of LFS and Census migrant data for 2001 at GOR level. • Suggests LFS provides a credible source of migrant data • LFS provides a complementary source of data for regional distribution of in-migrants

31 NHS Registration Statistics 31

32 NHS Data Analysis • Comparative analysis of Patient Register Data and TIM estimates has been undertaken: 32 – Newham LB – Brent LB • NHS registration data is used extensively by ONS for the measurement of internal migration. • NHSCR/PRDS now being evaluated for its potential as a proxy measure of international migration.

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34 LPD Analysis • David Ewens at GLA has completed an analysis of ethnicity and attainment in Greater London using the LPD. 34 • Linking successive annual datasets (2002 and 2003 in this case) it is possible to identify ‘new entrants’ to the education system • The study has illustrated pupil mobility grouped by ethnicity and by whether or not their mother tongue is English.

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36 NINo Analysis 36 Source: National Insurance Number Allocations to Overseas Nationals Entering the

37 Home Office Data 37

38 Home Office Data • HO statistics are for non-EEA only. 38 • UK Address is recorded on each Landing Card but is not captured.

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40 WRS statistics 40 Source: Accession Monitoring Report May-Sept 2004 Home Office, DWP, HMRC,

41 Summary • Increasing need to better understand (measure) the complex process of international migration. 41 – European scale – National level – Sub-nationally !! • Are we making best use of the data that is available?

42 42 New Migrant Databank (NMD) An Analytical Framework?

43 Single View 43 • Concepts, definitions, time-periods, data quality, sample size, frequency of collection all pose problems for accurately measuring new migrants. • However, a variety of sources of data exist, providing a complementary view of new migrants.

44 Recommendations 44 • The New Migrant Databank (NMD) should be established, together with an appropriate ‘reporting’ framework, to create a unique and integrated source of intelligence on new migrant activity. • Given its long-term value to users across regions, and the data inputs it would need, construction of the NMD should be planned as a partnership venture to include ONS.

45 Recommendations 45 • Using the NMD, comparative analysis of alternative datasets should be completed at a detailed geographical level and for specific migrant demographic profiles. • Integration of new data into the migrant estimation process when robustness and reliability are assured. – Distributions – Counts – Profiles • Running in parallel with ONS NSQR programme

46 Recommendations 46 • Relative levels of short-term and long-term migration should be explored through partnership work on the NMD, using statistics from the IPS and LFS.

47 Recommendations 47 • To improve the robustness of statistics derived from TIM, the LFS should be used (in preference to the IPS) to derive revised estimates of new migrant flows for London, subject to validation against the NHSCR. • Age-sex profiles should be applied to these new estimates using migrant profiles from the NHSCR/LFS, validated against the Census. .

48 New Migrant Databank 48

49 49 End