경영 그 100년 역사의 교훈 2009년 3월 김

경영, 그 100년 역사의 교훈 2009년 3월 김 병도 (서울대 경영대) 02 -880 -8258 bxk@snu. ac. kr www. byungdo. com

History of Business Management 17 C 1902 Big Business 1929 Government Regulation Scientific Management Frederick Taylor 경영역사 1945 Great Depression 1961 1972 Strategy & Social Change 1988 Globalization & Knowledge Marketing & Diversification Competition & Restructuring End of WW II Oil Shock Vietnam War ? What? End of Cold War Copyright 2009 by Byung-Do Kim, Seoul National University

Big Business (1776 -1901) v Business environments w Industrial revolution w Colonization v Major developments in business w East India Company w Company Act of 1856 in England w Command-control in railroad industry (Daniel Mc. Callum and Albert Fink) w Birth of modern retailers such as chain stores, department stores, and mail-order companies w Vertical integration v Key academic ideas w Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith (1776) w Friedrich List (1789 -1846): Prussian answer to Adam Smith 경영역사 Copyright 2009 by Byung-Do Kim, Seoul National University

Wealth of Nations Rank Country GDP Per Capita 1 2 3 4 5 11 22 34 175 176 177 178 179 Luxembourg Norway Qatar Iceland Ireland USA Japan South Korea Guinea-Bissau Liberia Congo Burundi Zimbabwe 104, 673 83, 922 72, 849 63, 830 59. 924 45, 845 34, 312 19, 751 206 195 166 128 55 Source: International Monetary Fund (2007) 경영역사 Copyright 2009 by Byung-Do Kim, Seoul National University

국부(國富)를 결정하는 변수 v경제학의 가장 중요한 문제 § ‘Wealth of Nations’ by Adam Smith (1776) § ‘How Rich Countries Got Rich, and Why Poor Countries Stay Poor’ by Erik Reinert (2007) v인류 역사에서 국가 간 부(富)의 차이가 현저히 나기 시작한 시점 § 산업혁명 § 식민지 개척 경영역사 Copyright 2009 by Byung-Do Kim, Seoul National University

Aggressor Nations Ranking Country GDP (million $) $2, 659 (126) $19, 751 (34) Source:

Scientific Management (1902 -1931) v Business environments w Industry growth with mechanization w Stock market speculation w 1927: First TV by Philo Farnsworth v Major developments in business w w w 1908: Henry Ford’s Assembly line 1916: Clarence Saunder’s supermarket 1920 s: Du Pont’s decentralization 1920 s: GM’s market segmentation Return on investment Mass-market advertising booms v Key academic ideas w w w 경영역사 Scientific Management by Frederick Taylor (1911) Participatory management by Mary Parker Follett (1927) Hawthorn experiment by Elton Mayo and others (1927 -1932) Theory of the firm by Ronald Coase (1930) Creative Destruction by Shumpeter (1883 -1950) Copyright 2009 by Byung-Do Kim, Seoul National University

Productivity Growth by Taylorim 생산성 증감 임금 증감 주물용 철 운송 3. 8배 60% 증가 삽 작업 3. 7배 63% 증가 벽돌 쌓기 2. 9배 - 베어링 검사 3. 5배 80 -100% 증가 금속 절삭 2배 이상 35% 증가

Government Regulation (1932 -1946) v Business environments w w w w Stock crash and great depression at the beginning of 1930 s National Recovery Administration (1933 -1935) Antitrust pressures Strikes and unions World War II Tennessee Valley Authority (government-run company) Bretton Wood Conference creates World Band IMF v Major developments in business w Operations research w 1935: Alan Turing created “Universal Turing Machine” or the first computer. v Key academic ideas w The Modern Corporation and Private Property by Berle/Means (1933) w The Functions of the Executives by Chester Barnard (1938) w Hierarchy of Needs by Abraham Maslow (1942) 경영역사 Copyright 2009 by Byung-Do Kim, Seoul National University

Marketing & Diversification (1947 -1959) v Business environments w w w Marshall Plan for European recovery General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade Korean war Baby boom Sputnik provokes enormous US government spending on science v Major developments in business w w Royal Little’s conglomeration (1952) Management by objectives P&G: TV advertising and marketing research Statistical quality control v Key academic ideas w w w Portfolio analysis by Harry Markowitz (1949) The Practice of Management by Peter Drucker (1954) Marketing Myopia by Theodore Levitt (1960) Management Education: Carnegie and Ford Foundation (1958) Administrative Behavior by Herbert Simon (1947) 경영역사 Copyright 2009 by Byung-Do Kim, Seoul National University

Strategy & Social Change (1960 -1971) v Business environments w w Civil rights movement Affirmative Action Environmental Protection Agency Vietnam war v Major developments in business w w Mc. Donald’s franchising ITT’s portfolio planning Marketing’s 4 P Conglomerate acquisitions v Key academic ideas w w w 경영역사 Theory Y by Duglas Mc. Gregor (1962) Strategy and Structure by Alfred Chandler (1962) A Behavioral Theory of the Firm by Cyert/March (1963) Capital asset pricing model Agency theory by Jensen and Meckling (1970) Copyright 2009 by Byung-Do Kim, Seoul National University

Competition & Restructuring (1972 -1987) v Business environments w w w w Oil embargo Environmental movement Stagflation Japanese and German competitiveness Consumer movement Consulting booms Deregulation v Major developments in business w w w w Brand extensions and product proliferation Corporate culture Quality circles Total Quality Control, Just-in-Time Delivery, Lean manufacturing Steady growth in MBA graduates Pension fund Leveraged Buyout, KKK v Key academic ideas w In Search of Excellence by Peters/Waterman (1982) w Competitive Advantage by Michael Porter (1985) 경영역사 Copyright 2009 by Byung-Do Kim, Seoul National University

Market Share of GM versus Japanese Automakers in US Market Share GM Japan Year

Globalization & Knowledge (1988 -Present) v Business environments w Cold War ends w North American Free Trade Agreement w Growth in Asia v Major developments in business w w w w GE’s boundary-less organization Internet/Intranets/Extranets Corporate Downsizing: GE’s Jack Welch ERP, SCM, CRM, 6 sigma Derivatives Strategic alliances Flexible organization Sabanes-Oxley Act (2002) v Key academic ideas w w w 경영역사 The Fifth Disciplines by Peter Senge (1990) Core Competence by Prahalad and Hamel (1990) The Balanced Scorecard by Kaplan and Norton (1992) Corporate vision and goals by Collins and Porras (1994) Process reengineering by Champy and Hammer Copyright 2009 by Byung-Do Kim, Seoul National University

2008 KOF Index of Globalization 2008 KOF Index for Top Asia 3 Korea Japan China Economic Social Political 70 55 23 80 53 29 66 64 10 Total 46 51 43

Words for Current Period?

Alternative Economic Theories v Poor countries are poor because they lack: § Land natural resources § Physical and human capital § Access to the latest technology v South Korea and North Korea v Migration as an experiment § GDP per capita: Haiti = $1, 291, Germany = $34, 181 § US immigrants (self-employed): Haiti = $18, 900, West Germany = $27, 300 § US immigrants (salaried): Haiti = $10, 900, West Germany = $21, 900 경영역사 Copyright 2009 by Byung-Do Kim, Seoul National University

남북한 경제력 비교 지표 남한 북한 인구 4, 845만 2, 320만 지능지수 106 104 구리 매장량 290만톤 5. 6만톤 석회석 매장량 1, 000억톤 85억톤 명목 GNI 902조원 24조원 일인당 GNI 1, 863만원 107만원 무역총액 7, 283억 달러 29억 달러 자료: 한국은행 (2007), 대한광업진흥공사 (2006) 경영역사 Copyright 2009 by Byung-Do Kim, Seoul National University

Migration as an Experiment Germany $34, 181 Haiti $1, 291 경영역사 Self-employed: Germany = $27, 300 Haiti = $18, 900 Salaried: Germany = $21, 900 Haiti = $10, 900 Copyright 2009 by Byung-Do Kim, Seoul National University

Making Poor Nations Rich: Entrepreneurship and the Process of Economic Development Edited by Benjamin Powell (2008) Institutional Environment Entrepreneurship Wealth of Nations

기업가정신과 제도(institution) v산업혁명이 유럽에서 시작된 이유 § 명나라의 기술력 v미국이 산업혁명을 완성한 이유 §

The Most Influential Figures in American History Alexander Hamilton (5) John D. Rockefeller (11) Henry Ford (14) Andrew Carnegie (20) Walt Disney (26) Eli Whitney (27) J. P. Morgan (37) Bill Gates (54) P. T. Barnum (67) James Gordon Bennett (69) Sam Walton (72) Cyrus Mc. Cormick (73) William Randolph Hearst (80) George Eastman (94) Source: The Atlantic (2006) 경영역사 Copyright 2009 by Byung-Do Kim, Seoul National University

Index of Economic Freedom (The Heritage Foundation, 2009) TOP 10: Hong Kong, Singapore, Australia, Ireland, New Zealand, US, Canada, Denmark, Switzerland, United Kingdom Korea (40), Japan (19) India (123), China (132), North Korea (179) 경영역사 Copyright 2009 by Byung-Do Kim, Seoul National University

Economic Freedom and Per Capita Income

Economic Freedom and Income Share of the Poorest 10%

Economic Freedom and Life Expectancy

Economic Freedom and Corruption

Index of Economic Freedom (2009) 한국의 경제자유지수를 올리려면 노동시장의 유연성을 확보 해야 한다. Component Index Average Business Freedom 90. 4 64. 3 Trade Freedom 70. 2 73. 2 Fiscal Freedom 70. 4 74. 9 Government Size 72. 5 65. 0 Monetary Freedom 80. 0 74. 0 Investment Freedom 70. 0 48. 8 Financial Freedom 60. 0 49. 1 Property Rights 70. 0 44. 0 Freedom from Corruption 51. 0 40. 3 Labor Freedom 경영역사 Korea 46. 4 61. 3 Copyright 2009 by Byung-Do Kim, Seoul National University

Bad Entrepreneurship v Productive entrepreneurship v Unproductive or rent-seeking entrepreneurship § Lobbying regulators or legislators in favors § Suing in the courts to harm competitors § Conducting military activities § Monopolizing behavior § Taking downstream profits 경영역사 Copyright 2009 by Byung-Do Kim, Seoul National University

Schumpeter’s Entrepreneur v The introduction of a new good § One with which consumers are not yet familiar § A new quality of a good v The introduction of a new method of production v The opening of a new market v The conquest of a new source of supply of raw materials or half-manufactured goods, again irrespective of whether this source already exists or whether it has first to be created v The carrying out of the new organization of any industry, like the creation of a monopoly position (for example through trustification) or the breaking up of a monopoly position 경영역사 Copyright 2009 by Byung-Do Kim, Seoul National University

Schumpeter’s Wave Accelerate Water power Textiles Iron FIRST WAVE 1785 Steam Rail Steel SECOND WAVE 1845 60 years Electricity Chemicals Internal combustion engine FOURTH WAVE THIRD WAVE 1900 55 years Petrochemicals Semiconductors Electronics Fiber optics Aviation Genetics Software 1950 50 years FIFTH WAVE 1990 40 years ? Schumpeter’s long economic waves are shortening, from 50 -60 years to around 30 -40 years. 경영역사 Copyright 2009 by Byung-Do Kim, Seoul National University

좋은 기업가정신의 예 v다른 사람에게 혁신의 기회를 제공하는 ‘혁신’이 가장 훌륭한 혁신이다. v마이크로프로세서, 개인용

진보와 보수 v기업가정신의 결과 발생하는 빈부의 격 차는 어떻게 해결할 것인가? v진보와 보수 v밀튼

World Income Inequality Unequal Countries Equal Countries

Lotka Curve Performance of PGA Professionals (1991 -2000) Source: Murray (2003), Human Accomplishment 경영역사

Institution and Income 2004년 제 46회 사법시험 합격자 총 합격인원: 1009명 서울대 출신: 339명 (34%) 서울대 법대: 192명 서울대 비법대: 147명 특기사항: 최연소 합격자와 최고 득점자가 여성 최연소 합격자가 서울대 경영대 2학년 학생 경영역사 Copyright 2009 by Byung-Do Kim, Seoul National University

US Individual Income Tax (Top Bracket Rate)

Largest Donors in American History Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Donor Warren Buffett Bill and Melinda Gates John D. Rockefeller William Hewlett Gordon and Betty Moore Henry Ford and son Andrew Carnegie Joan Kroc Susan Buffett Walter Annenberg Source Gifts Berkshire Hathaway Microsoft Standard Oil Hewlett-Packard Intel Ford Motor Co. U. S. Steel Widow of Mc. Donald founder Late wife of Buffett TV Guide $43. 5 $30 $7 $6 $5 $4. 3 $3 $2. 6 $2. 5 $2 Source: International Monetary Fund (2007) 경영역사 Copyright 2009 by Byung-Do Kim, Seoul National University