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What’s Ahead for Agriculture Remarks by Mark Pearson Fluid Fertilizer Association Scottsdale, Arizona February What’s Ahead for Agriculture Remarks by Mark Pearson Fluid Fertilizer Association Scottsdale, Arizona February 15, 2010

Thoughts on the World Economy n $70. 6 trillion – Global GDP n $14. Thoughts on the World Economy n $70. 6 trillion – Global GDP n $14. 2 trillion – U. S. GDP n $13. 5 trillion – EU GDP n $4. 3 trillion – China GDP

U. S. Annual Deficit Projections Source: CBO, White House U. S. Annual Deficit Projections Source: CBO, White House

U. S. National Debt Source: U. S. Treasury, CBO U. S. National Debt Source: U. S. Treasury, CBO

U. S. GDP – 2003 -2011 Source: Financial Forecast Center U. S. GDP – 2003 -2011 Source: Financial Forecast Center

U. S. Consumer Confidence Source: tradingeconomics. com U. S. Consumer Confidence Source: tradingeconomics. com

U. S. Industrial Production Source: tradingeconomics. com U. S. Industrial Production Source: tradingeconomics. com

10 -Year Prime Rate Source: Money. Cafe. com 10 -Year Prime Rate Source: Money. Cafe. com

DJIA Five-Year Performance Source: http: //finance. yahoo. com DJIA Five-Year Performance Source: http: //finance. yahoo. com

Mountain of Cash Source: Shadowstats. com Mountain of Cash Source: Shadowstats. com

10 -Year Treasury Note Yield Source: http: //finance. yahoo. com 10 -Year Treasury Note Yield Source: http: //finance. yahoo. com

Five-Year U. S. Dollar Index Source: Barchart. com Five-Year U. S. Dollar Index Source: Barchart. com

Five-Year Gold Prices Source: American Gold Prices Five-Year Gold Prices Source: American Gold Prices

U. S. Housing Starts Source: Financial Forecast Center U. S. Housing Starts Source: Financial Forecast Center

U. S. Restaurant Performance Index Source: Nat’l Restaurant Association U. S. Restaurant Performance Index Source: Nat’l Restaurant Association

U. S. Restaurant Performance Index Source: Nat’l Restaurant Association U. S. Restaurant Performance Index Source: Nat’l Restaurant Association

U. S. Restaurant Performance Index Source: Nat’l Restaurant Association U. S. Restaurant Performance Index Source: Nat’l Restaurant Association

The Cost of Cap and Trade The Cost of Cap and Trade

The Cost of Cap and Trade The Cost of Cap and Trade

Projected World Population 2050 Source: United Nations Projected World Population 2050 Source: United Nations

World Population Density World Population Density

China’s Total Primary Energy Consumption, 1970 -2020 China’s Total Primary Energy Consumption, 1970 -2020

China’s Demand for Oil Imports China’s Demand for Oil Imports

Projected Oil Consumption Trends in Key Countries Through 2025 Source: IEA, EIA Projected Oil Consumption Trends in Key Countries Through 2025 Source: IEA, EIA

Vital Maritime Chokepoints Source: EIA Vital Maritime Chokepoints Source: EIA

Maritime Chokepoints - Asia Source: EIA Maritime Chokepoints - Asia Source: EIA

Fuel Futures: NYMEX Crude Oil Source: NYMEX Fuel Futures: NYMEX Crude Oil Source: NYMEX

World Corn, Wheat, Oilseeds Planted Acreage vs. Total Use World Corn, Wheat, Oilseeds Planted Acreage vs. Total Use

Fuel Futures: Ethanol March ’ 10 Source: CBOT Fuel Futures: Ethanol March ’ 10 Source: CBOT

10 -Year Corn Prices Source: NASS 10 -Year Corn Prices Source: NASS

World Corn Ending Stocks As Percentage of Use Compliments of PHI Marketing World Corn Ending Stocks As Percentage of Use Compliments of PHI Marketing

U. S. Corn Ending Stocks as Percentage of Use Compliments of PHI Marketing U. S. Corn Ending Stocks as Percentage of Use Compliments of PHI Marketing

USDA Corn Supply and Use Area Planted Area Harvested Yield Beginning Stocks Production Imports USDA Corn Supply and Use Area Planted Area Harvested Yield Beginning Stocks Production Imports Supply, Total Feed & Residual Food, Seed & Industrial Domestic Use, Total Exports Use, Total Ending Stocks Average Farm Price 2008/09 est (01/12/10) 2009/2010 Proj. 86. 0 86. 5 78. 6 79. 6 153. 9 165. 2 1, 624 1, 673 12, 092 13, 151 14 10 13, 729 14, 834 5, 246 5, 550 4, 953 5, 470 10, 198 11, 020 1, 858 2, 050 12, 056 13, 070 1, 673 1, 764 $4. 06 $3. 40 -$4. 00 Compliments of PHI Marketing

March ’ 10 Corn Source: CBOT March ’ 10 Corn Source: CBOT

May ’ 10 Corn Source: CBOT May ’ 10 Corn Source: CBOT

December ’ 10 Corn Source: CBOT December ’ 10 Corn Source: CBOT

10 -Year Soybean Prices Source: NASS 10 -Year Soybean Prices Source: NASS

World Oilseed Demand Climbs Source: USDA World Oilseed Demand Climbs Source: USDA

March ’ 10 Soybeans Source: CBOT March ’ 10 Soybeans Source: CBOT

May ’ 10 Soybeans Source: CBOT May ’ 10 Soybeans Source: CBOT

November ’ 10 Soybeans Source: CBOT November ’ 10 Soybeans Source: CBOT

U. S. Soybean Ending Stocks As % of Use Compliments of PHI Marketing U. S. Soybean Ending Stocks As % of Use Compliments of PHI Marketing

World Soybean Ending Stocks as Percentage of Use Compliments of PHI Marketing World Soybean Ending Stocks as Percentage of Use Compliments of PHI Marketing

USDA Soybean Supply and Use Area Planted Area Harvested Yield (bushels per acre) Beginning USDA Soybean Supply and Use Area Planted Area Harvested Yield (bushels per acre) Beginning Stocks Production Imports Supply, Total Crush Exports Seed Residual Use, Total Ending Stocks Average Farm Price 2008/09 (1/12/10) 75. 7 74. 7 39. 7 205 2, 967 13 3, 185 1, 662 1, 283 95 6 3, 047 138 $9. 97 2009/2010 Projected 77. 5 76. 4 44. 0 138 3, 361 8 3, 507 1, 710 1, 375 94 83 3, 262 245 $8. 90 -$10. 40 Compliments of PHI Marketing

World Soybean Supply and Use 2007/08 Beginning Stocks Production Imports Crush Total Exports Ending World Soybean Supply and Use 2007/08 Beginning Stocks Production Imports Crush Total Exports Ending Stocks 62. 89 221. 14 78. 13 201. 87 229. 69 79. 52 52. 95 2008/09 (est. ) 52. 95 210. 86 76. 47 192. 88 220. 67 76. 73 42. 87 2009/2010 (Proj. ) 42. 87 253. 58 78. 91 203. 86 234. 75 80. 61 59. 80 Million Metric Tons Compliments of PHI Marketing

10 -Year Wheat Prices Source: NASS 10 -Year Wheat Prices Source: NASS

March ’ 10 Chicago Wheat Source: CBOT March ’ 10 Chicago Wheat Source: CBOT

July ’ 10 Chicago Wheat Source: CBOT July ’ 10 Chicago Wheat Source: CBOT

December ’ 10 Chicago Wheat Source: CBOT December ’ 10 Chicago Wheat Source: CBOT

USDA Wheat Supply and Use Area Planted Area Harvested Yield (bushels per acre) Beginning USDA Wheat Supply and Use Area Planted Area Harvested Yield (bushels per acre) Beginning Stocks Production Imports Supply, Total Food Seed Feed & Residual Exports Use, Total Ending Stocks Average Farm Price 2008/09 (11/10/09) 63. 2 55. 7 44. 9 306 2, 499 127 2, 932 927 75 258 1, 015 2, 275 657 $6. 78 2009/2010 Projected 59. 1 49. 9 44. 4 657 2, 216 110 2, 983 940 72 170 825 2, 007 976 $4. 70 -$5. 05 Compliments of PHI Marketing

World Wheat Supply and Use 2007/08 Beginning Stocks Production Imports Feed Total Exports Ending World Wheat Supply and Use 2007/08 Beginning Stocks Production Imports Feed Total Exports Ending Stocks 127. 59 610. 46 113. 39 96. 32 616. 98 117. 20 121. 07 2008/09 (est. ) 121. 07 682. 68 136. 36 112. 70 639. 81 142. 89 163. 94 2009/2010 (Proj. ) 163. 94 676. 13 121. 16 110. 61 644. 47 123. 20 195. 60 Million Metric Tons Compliments of PHI Marketing

U. S. Wheat Ending Stocks As % of Use Compliments of PHI Marketing U. S. Wheat Ending Stocks As % of Use Compliments of PHI Marketing

World Wheat Ending Stocks as a Percentage of Use Compliments of PHI Marketing World Wheat Ending Stocks as a Percentage of Use Compliments of PHI Marketing

10 -Year Cattle Prices Source: NASS 10 -Year Cattle Prices Source: NASS

U. S. Cattle on Feed Source: USDA U. S. Cattle on Feed Source: USDA

Total U. S. Beef Exports 1999 -2008 Source: U. S. Meat Export Federation Total U. S. Beef Exports 1999 -2008 Source: U. S. Meat Export Federation

March ’ 10 Feeder Cattle Source: CME March ’ 10 Feeder Cattle Source: CME

February ’ 10 Live Cattle Source: CME February ’ 10 Live Cattle Source: CME

U. S. Dairy Trade Balance Source: U. S. Dairy Export Council U. S. Dairy Trade Balance Source: U. S. Dairy Export Council

February ’ 10 Class III Milk Source: CBOT February ’ 10 Class III Milk Source: CBOT

10 -Year Hog Prices Source: NASS 10 -Year Hog Prices Source: NASS

U. S. Quarterly Hogs, Pigs Inventory Source: USDA NASS U. S. Quarterly Hogs, Pigs Inventory Source: USDA NASS

U. S. Commercial Slaughter Hogs Source: USDA NASS U. S. Commercial Slaughter Hogs Source: USDA NASS

Pork Imports, Exports 1980 -2008 Source: USDA ERS Pork Imports, Exports 1980 -2008 Source: USDA ERS

February ’ 10 Lean Hogs Source: CBOT February ’ 10 Lean Hogs Source: CBOT

March ’ 10 Cotton Source: CBOT March ’ 10 Cotton Source: CBOT

December ’ 10 Cotton Source: CBOT December ’ 10 Cotton Source: CBOT

Average Farm Real Estate Values 2000 -09 Source: USDA NASS Average Farm Real Estate Values 2000 -09 Source: USDA NASS

Farm Real Estate: Average Value per Acre, by Region and State, Jan. 1, 2006 Farm Real Estate: Average Value per Acre, by Region and State, Jan. 1, 2006 -2009 Change Region/State n n n n N. Plains: KS : NE : MN ND : SD : IA: WI 2006 2007 2008 2009 08 -09 799 896 870 980 1, 030 1, 140 2, 340 2, 700 580 650 680 770 2, 910 3, 370 3, 100 3, 640 1, 020 1, 330 2, 970 770 920 3, 950 3, 850 1, 020 1, 030 1, 340 2, 870 780 890 3, 850 3, 750 0. 0 1. 0 0. 8 -3. 4 1. 3 -3. 3 -2. 5 -2. 6

Cropland: Average Value per Acre, by Region and State, Jan. 1, 2006 -2009 Change Cropland: Average Value per Acre, by Region and State, Jan. 1, 2006 -2009 Change Region/State 2006 n n n n N. Plains: KS : NE : MN ND : SD : IA: WI 985 854 1, 560 2, 130 610 1, 040 3, 100 2, 900 2007 2008 2009 08 -09 1, 090 914 1, 760 2, 420 670 1, 180 3, 600 3, 370 1, 280 1, 020 2, 050 2, 700 810 1, 400 4, 260 3, 600 1, 300 1, 050 2, 180 2, 610 800 1, 400 4, 050 3, 650 1. 6 2. 9 6. 3 -3. 3 -1. 2 0. 0 -4. 9 1. 4

Pasture: Average Value per Acre, by Region and State, Jan. 1, 2006 -2009 Change Pasture: Average Value per Acre, by Region and State, Jan. 1, 2006 -2009 Change Region/State 2006 2007 n n n n N. Plains: KS : NE : MN ND : SD : IA: WI 390 440 590 660 350 400 1, 120 1, 330 260 300 360 400 1, 780 1, 740 2, 000 2008 2009 08 -09 516 750 480 1, 480 350 470 2, 070 2, 130 499 750 450 1, 400 350 430 1, 880 2, 050 -3. 3 N/C -6. 3 -5. 4 N/C -8. 5 -9. 2 -3. 8

Cropland Rented for Cash: Average Cash Rent per Acre, by State, 2006 -09 State Cropland Rented for Cash: Average Cash Rent per Acre, by State, 2006 -09 State 2007 N. Plains: KS : NE: MN: 53. 50 44. 00 101. 00 88. 00 59. 50 45. 00 103. 00 94. 00 ND: SD: IA: WI: 2006 76. 00 39. 00 111. 00 71. 00 2008 66. 00 47. 50 121. 00 109. 00 97. 00 79. 00 41. 00 42. 50 120. 00 135. 00 72. 00 85. 00 2009 71. 00 51. 50 127. 00 116. 00 100. 00 45. 50 141. 00 89. 00

“THE ULTIMATE RESOURCE” Julian Simon “THE ULTIMATE RESOURCE” Julian Simon