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UNCERTAINTY BRINGS OPPORTUNITY
THE MATERIAL COVERED IN THIS PRESENTATION IS THE OPINION OF THE PRESENTER AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSTRUED AS A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY OR SELL ANY OF THE SECURITIES MENTIONED. INVESTORS SHOULD SEEK THE COUNSEL OF THEIR FINANCIAL ADVISOR BEFORE MAKING ANY KIND OF INVESTMENT. THE PRESENTER MAY OR MAY NOT HOLD LONG OR SHORT POSITIONS IN ANY OF THE SECURITIES MENTIONED.
The Facts • We are not entering another Great Depression. In the 1930’s government raised taxes and increased interest rates. We’re now doing just the opposite. • Valuations appear especially attractive today. The markets are down to 1997 levels and a large number of companies are selling at significant discounts to their true worth. • $9 Trillion in cash ready to invest.
A Typical Recession • Averages 14 months in length • Economic activity declines by 2. 5% • Unemployment rises by 2% • - If unemployed, the average tenure is six weeks. • We’ve had two recessions in the last 25 years (early 1990’s and 2000 – 2001). • They always end and the economy always rises to a higher plateau.
Stimulating Enough? Spring 2008 $170 Billion Tax Rebates Fall 2008 $350 Billion Drop in gas prices Proposed 2009 $790 Billion Economic Stimulus Plan
Changes Afoot? • “Repealing” the Repeal of Glass – Steagall • Reinstate Trust Laws; an end to “too big to fail. ” • Re-instatement of the Uptick Rule
Solving the Financial Crisis We’re doing all the right things. • Stronger firms buying out weaker firms. • Firms are “’fessing up” to valuations and losses. • Fed cutting interest rates.
The Fed’s Game of “Whack- A-Mole”* The Fed bailed out the mortgage mess, but…. . This “easy money” created other bubbles -Commodities -Currencies What will further easing create? *Quote from Yardeni & Associates
Since World War II We’ve had 10 Recessions • 24 stock declines of 10% or greater • 13 stock declines of 20% or greater What Counts is Corporate Earnings Since WW II • Corporate profits up 63 fold • Stock prices have risen 71 fold
Darts vs. Professional Stock Pickers
Oil Wells Often Overlooked Oil
Dreco Energy Services Price Graph 31 May 26 June 26 th July 23 rd Aug 20 th Sept. 19 th Oct. 15 th Nov 29 Nov
Hang In There Over the past 30 years the stock market has produced an average annual rate of return around 8%. If you were out of the market during the best 30 months your return would drop to just 2%.
Sources of Long-Term Performance Portfolio Rebalancing Makes a Big Difference
The Root of the Problem • It all started with the housing bubble • We have about 1. 5 million too many homes • This is about 12 months worth of sales • Much of the problem is regionally based • A dramatic slowdown in building and an increase in housing affordability is what eventually will solve the problem.
HEADLINE: Lou Dobbs Hosts Moneyline From Window Ledge Source: www. theonion. com
Relevant Economic/Financial Issues 1. Energy Issues 2. Interest Rates 3. Domestic Politics 4. Valuation Levels 5. Investing Demographics
Gulf Coast Wetlands Of Critical Importance: • 1/3 of the nation’s energy production • Bulk of Country’s refining capacity • 30% of America’s Seafood • South Louisiana is the Nation’s largest port • Wetlands are a buffer against storms
The Yield Curve As Prophet Fall 2000 3 month 6. 00% 10 year 5. 70% Slope -30 basis points Predicting a sharp decline in corporate earnings. Summer 2003 3 month 0. 95% 10 year 4. 35% Slope +340 basis points Predicting a huge increase in corporate earnings growth. Summer 2006 3 month 5. 10% 10 year 4. 50% Slope -60 basis points Projected an end to double digit EPS growth.
Important Yield Curve Spreads Current Slope +310 Basis Points Ten year treasury note (3. 30%) minus 3 -month treasury bill (0. 20%)
Consumer Confidence Vs. Reality The 1982 recession was the worst since the Great Depression. Consumer confidence is now 20% below the level it was back then. Unemployment Inflation Ten-yr. USTN 1982 11. 0% +10. 0% 14. 0% Now 8. 9% + 2. 0% 3. 3%
Typical Recovery • Painful Layoffs • Credit Markets Gradually Thaw • Merger and Acquisition Activity Heats Up • Newly Streamline Companies. Small Improvement in Business Brings Much Larger Improvement in Profits
Stock Market and Business Cycle Many stocks are cyclical in nature. They tend to perform better in specific stages of business cycles. Forecasting these cycles can help to put you in the right stocks at the right time. Consumer Staples Excel Source: Fortune Magazine: 3/21/94
HEADLINE: ‘Wheel of Fortune’ Contestants Hit Hard as Vowel Prices Skyrocket
Federal Reserve Valuation Model EPS for S&P 500 Price of S&P 500 = Yield on 10 Year Treasury Note $50. 00* 900. 00 = 5. 55% The 10 yr. Treasury Currently Yields 3. 30% *Forecasted 12 month EPS. 5/11/09
Federal Reserve Model Source: Yardeni & Associates
Fear Index In February of 2009 Gold sold at $1000 an ounce and could then be exchanged for some pretty useful stuff. -150 shares of General Electric or 25 barrels of oil -Today Gold prices have dropped to $911 an ounce and could only buy 63 shares of General Electric or 15 barrels of oil.
HEADLINE: Mason-Dixon Line Renamed IHOP-Waffle House Line Source: www. theonion. com
“Tis Double Death To Drown In Ken of Shore” -Shakespeare -Twelve other Bear Markets since 1955 -Average decline was 22. 5% and lasted 11 months -These were followed by recoveries averaging 12 -month in length and producing 35. 0% returns. -This is about 1. 5 times the decline
Investing Demographics • “The Pig and the Python” • Very high birth rates from 1946 – 1964 • Investing Concepts - Financial Services - Healthcare - Leisure
Important Issues • Favorable Demographics • Troubles in the Housing Market • Changes to Pension Plans
Source: Standard & Poors
What Drives A Stock? Price Earnings Per Share = P/E ratio Using Home Depot for Example: $22. 00 $1. 85 12/02/08 = 12. 0 x
Wal-Mart 2001 -2006
Wal-Mart Stock P/E’s vs. Earnings Per Share 2007 $43. 00 = A PE of 13. 0 x $ 3. 30 2001 $43. 00 = A PE of 29. 0 x $ 1. 50 The stock has remained flat as EPS growth has mirrored the decline in its PE ratio. In 2001 Wal-Mart shares were “ahead of themselves”.
Three Stages of a Bear Market Stage Characteristics 1. DENIAL Economy shows signs of slowing and stocks fall from their highs, sometimes sharply. Investors shrug it off and act as though the bull market will last forever. 2. REALITY Stocks continue to decline. Investors start to realize how weak the economy really is. 3. SURRENDER Fear of deeper losses and a recession become so worrisome that investors give up on stocks, setting the stage for a rebound.
Started In Economic Downturns • Procter & Gamble: • IBM: The Panic of 1837 The Long Depression 1873 - 1896 • General Electric: The Panic of 1837 • General Motors: the Panic of 1907 • United Technologies: The Great Depression 1929 • Fed Ex: The Oil Crisis of 1973
GNP vs. Stock Market Valuation
The Future Has Not Been Cancelled • Our economic problems are not insurmountable. • Have patience, this turnaround will not happen overnight. • The stock market is about 6 -9 months ahead of the economy. • Capitalism Works. The human drive to succeed is very powerful.
Great Reading/Sources Popular Books One Up On Wall Street, Peter Lynch (Simon & Schuster) A Zebra in Lion Country, Ralph Wanger (Simon & Schuster) The Money Masters, John Train (Harper & Row) The Little Book That Beats The Market, Joel Greenblatt Analytical Books The Intelligent Investor, Benjamin Graham (Harper & Row) Security Analysis, Benjamin Graham (Mc. Graw-Hill) Sophisticated and Well Written Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits, Phillip A. Fisher (Harper & Row) The Contrarian Investment Strategy, David Dremen (Random House) Great Investment Websites Bloomberg. com Investopedia. com NPR. org Motley. Fool. com Seekingalpha. com Yahoo. Finance. com
www. burkenroad. org