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UNAPCAEM Opportunity and Challenge for the Evolution of Biofuels in the Asia and Pacific UNAPCAEM Opportunity and Challenge for the Evolution of Biofuels in the Asia and Pacific Region 2008. 1. 23. Jeong-Hwan Bae Associate Researcher Email: [email protected] re. kr

Contents 1 Overview of Biofuel Consumption and Policy 2 Major Agenda in the APEC Contents 1 Overview of Biofuel Consumption and Policy 2 Major Agenda in the APEC Biofuel TF 3 Potential and Plan of Biofuel in the APEC 4 Frontier Issues in the Biofuel Promotion 5 Final Remarks and Implication

World Bioethanol Production v World production increases by 3 times bet. 2000 and 2007 World Bioethanol Production v World production increases by 3 times bet. 2000 and 2007 (about 2% of world gasoline consumption) v About 50 million k. L produced in 2007 v U. S. A. production increases by 4 times for the same period Source: F. O. Licht, 2007, ‘World Ethanol & Biofuels Report 3

World Biodiesel Production v v 5. 8 MT of BD would be produced in World Biodiesel Production v v 5. 8 MT of BD would be produced in 2007 (0. 2% of world diesel consumption) Bet. 2002 and 2007, world BD production increases by 5 times EU prod. increases by 3. 7 times, OECD Asia prod. increases by 9. 5 times North America prod. increases by 11 times! Unit: 1, 000 ton Source: OECD Trade Policy Studies, 2006), *2005: Estimated, **2006~2008: Projected 4

Biofuel Promotion Policy in EU v Subsidy on biofuel promotion as a part of Biofuel Promotion Policy in EU v Subsidy on biofuel promotion as a part of agricultural policy Ø Unilaterally € 45/ha supported by Common Agricultural Policy from 2003 Ø Fuel Tax exemption as well as Environmental tax exemption also applied v 5. 38 million TOE of biofuel produced in EU (2006) Ø Share of Germany production: 52. 4% Ø Share of entire EU diesel market: 1. 6% v Promotion goal of BD in EU Ø 2% of total diesel consumption in 2005 Ø 5. 75% in 2010, minimum 10% in 2020 v Achievement of BD promotion goal was not promising Ø Germany(3. 8%) and Sweden(2. 2%) only accomplished the 2005 goal 5

Germany and France Policy v 100% fuel tax exemption applied in Germany until 2006 Germany and France Policy v 100% fuel tax exemption applied in Germany until 2006 Ø The largest EU biofuel consumer in 2006: 2. 8 Mton of BD, 0. 48 Mton of BE Ø Total biofuel quota: 6. 75% in 2010 and 8. 0% in 2015 Ø € 0. 63/liter exempted, but began to convert into partial exemption policy Ø In 2007, partial tax is € 0. 09/liter, and it increases as € 0. 45/liter in 2012 Ø Full tax exemption allowed for 2 nd generation tech. (BTL, Bioethanol from cellulose) v Partial tax exemption policy in France Ø Second largest EU biofuel consumer in 2006: 0. 62 Mton of BD, 0. 23 Mton of BE Ø Consumption target: 5. 75% in 2008, 7% in 2010, 10% in 2015 Ø Partial excise tax exemption: € 0. 26/liter for BE, € 0. 167 for BD Ø Additional favor for general tax on polluting activities Ø 500~600 of retail stations selling E 85(super-ethanol) in the end of 2007 6

Biofuel Policy in Austria, Spain, and Sweden v Austria Ø BD consumption: 0. 32 Biofuel Policy in Austria, Spain, and Sweden v Austria Ø BD consumption: 0. 32 Mton in 2006 Ø Obligation (5. 75% in 2008) and full tax exemption v Spain Ø 6, 000 ton of BD was produced from waste oil in 2003 Ø Production of BD in 2005 was 150, 000 ton (capacity: 250, 000 t) Ø Starting ETBE in 1995 producing 260, 000 ton in 2005 Ø Biofuel is responsible for 1. 1% of total petrol and diesel use! Ø By 2010, 500, 000 ton (1. 7% of total trans. fuel use) of biofuels are their goal! Ø 10 year guarantee of fiscal support for commercial biofuel plants v Sweden Ø 270 stations providing E 85 will be constructed during 2007 Ø 13. 5% of newly registered cars are FFV(Flex Fuel Vehicle) in 2007 7

Biofuel Policy in USA v The largest BE consumption country in 2006 Ø 16. Biofuel Policy in USA v The largest BE consumption country in 2006 Ø 16. 6 million k. L of BE was produced in 2005 Ø 3%(17 MT) of transportation fuel in 2006 15%(130 MT) in 2017 v Volumetric excise ethanol tax credit Ø $0. 51/gallon of tax exemption for BE by 2010 Ø Federal tax incentives: income tax deduction and production tax deduction v Production and Incentives for biodiesel Ø 0. 29 million k. L of BD was produced in 2005 Ø Tax credit for BD: $1. 0/gallon for virgin oil, $0. 5 for waste oil (2004) v RFS(Renewable Fuel Standard) Ø US EPA is responsible for promulgating minimum volume of renewable fuel required to be blended into gasoline Ø 4 billion gallons in 2006 and 7. 5 billion gallons in 2012 8

Biofuel Policy in Brazil and Japan v Current production and goal of biofuels in Biofuel Policy in Brazil and Japan v Current production and goal of biofuels in Brazil Ø 15. 6 million k. L of BE was produced in 2005 Ø Blending ratio for mixing BE with gasoline is 20 -25% Ø BD consumption: 2% in 2007, 5% in 2013 v Measures to promote biofuels in Brazil Ø Obligation for the biofuel consumption Ø Capital loan ($41. 9 M) for the installation of BD plants Ø FFV represents more than 90% of LDV (light duty vehicle) v Production and Incentives for biofuel in Japan Ø 1, 500 k. L of BD (BD 100, BD 20) Ø E 3 tested in 2008 (20, 000 of cars in Miyako Island) and E 10 blending by 2012 Ø Import 0. 21 MT of ethanol in private sector by 2010 to convert into ETBE Ø Partial tax exemption for gasohol 9

Biofuel Profile in Asian Countries v Total production of ethanol is estimated as 5, Biofuel Profile in Asian Countries v Total production of ethanol is estimated as 5, 954 ML(Dufey, 2006) v China and India are major biofuel production countries in Asia Country   Bioethanol Production (ML) Biodiesel Blending Ratio Crop Production (ML) Blending Ratio Crop 68 (installation, 2004)     Jatropa B 20(2011) Jatropa   palm, soybean, soya, coconut, Jatropa   Palm China 3, 649 E 10 Corn, Casava, Sugarcane, rice, sweet potato India 1, 749 E 5 sugarcane Tailand 280 E 10 sugarcane, Tapioca, Casava Indonesia 167   Sugarcane Pakistan 26   Sugarcane       Philipine 83   Sugarcane     Coconut Source: MOFAT, 2007, Guidebook for Bioenergy Market 90(2005) 722(2010)  10

Prospect of Biofuels in Asian Countries v Until 2030, several Asain countries hope to Prospect of Biofuels in Asian Countries v Until 2030, several Asain countries hope to increase production of biofuels as 153 MT v Recently, more investment on biodiesel production is made in Malaysia and Indonesia Country Gasoline equivalent Ethanol  Unit ML MT MT Indonesia 55, 995 44. 2 27. 7 Malaysia 16, 157 12. 8 8. 0 Philipine 21, 617 17. 1 10. 7 Thailand 13, 968 11. 0 6. 9 Vietnam 11, 138 8. 8 5. 5 Source: MOFAT, 2007, Guidebook for Bioenergy Market 11

Prospect of Biofuels by APEC BF T/F v Supply potential of biofuel is estimated Prospect of Biofuels by APEC BF T/F v Supply potential of biofuel is estimated as 1/3 of total transport fuel demand Ø About 10% of the supply potential can be provided by food crops Ø 90% of the potential will be provided by non-food crops in the long run Ø BD consumption: 2% in 2007, 5% in 2013 v Sugar cane and corn are the most cost-effective for producing bioethanol Ø Palm is the most productive feedstock for producing biodiesel Ø Second generation technology is not cost-effective for now v Application of bio-refinery technology to lower production cost of biofuels Ø Utilization of oil cake and crop residuals: wood pellet, fertilizer Ø Glycerin or pitch can be used as fuels, costumes or bio plastics 12

Prospect of Biofuels in APEC BF T/F v Expansion of non-food feedstock Ø Exploitation Prospect of Biofuels in APEC BF T/F v Expansion of non-food feedstock Ø Exploitation of set-aside land or marginal land Ø Less requirement on the cultivation of non-food crops Ø Jatropha can grow well even in low-graded land v Encouraging free-trading of biofuels among Asian countries Ø Low production costs in Southern Asian countries: Malaysia, Indonesia Ø High production costs in Nortern Asian countries: Korea, Japan v Emerging carbon market in APEC can help economic growth in developing Asian countries Ø Non-annex countries in Kyoto protocol: can obtain CER (Certified Emission Reduction) through CDM Ø Annex countries: can obtain ERU (Emission Reduction Unit) through JI 13

Standardization of Biofuels in APEC v Current international standards on BD are EN 14214 Standardization of Biofuels in APEC v Current international standards on BD are EN 14214 and ASTM D 6751 Ø Feedstock of APEC is quite different from that of EU and USA Ø Without standardization of BD, no free-trading in APEC v Conclusion of the 1 st workshop on BD standardization in APEC Ø Commodity subject to free-trading is BD 100 Ø High-speed as well as low-speed vehicles included v Various kinds of feedstock with different physical attributes Ø Major parameters : combustion, engine and after-treatment tech. , durability, cetane, CFPP, viscosity, sediment, and water content Ø Standardization will be completed at the end of 2008 14

BD Production Plan of Asia and Austrailia bet. 2007 -2008 Source: Initium Partners Inc. BD Production Plan of Asia and Austrailia bet. 2007 -2008 Source: Initium Partners Inc. 2007 15

Estimation of BE Potential in the APEC source: NREL’s presentation in the APEC BTF Estimation of BE Potential in the APEC source: NREL’s presentation in the APEC BTF workshop (2007) 16

Estimation of BD Potential in the APEC source: NREL’s presentation in the APEC BTF Estimation of BD Potential in the APEC source: NREL’s presentation in the APEC BTF workshop (2007) 17

BE Potential from ASEAN(2030) (Association of South East Asian Nations) v Feedstock: residues of BE Potential from ASEAN(2030) (Association of South East Asian Nations) v Feedstock: residues of sugarcane (bagasse and filter cake), cassava (crude fiber, stalks and leaves), corn (crude fiber, stalks, leaves, cobs and husks), oil palm (shells and empty fruit bunch), coconut (shells and fiber) Economy Ethanol (Million Liters) Ethanol (Million Tons) Gasoline Equivalent (Million Tons) Indonesia 55, 995 44. 2 27. 7 Malaysia 16, 157 12. 8 8. 0 Philippines 21, 617 17. 1 10. 7 Thailand 13, 968 11. 0 6. 9 Viet Nam 11, 138 8. 8 5. 5 118, 875 94 59 total Source: APEC Biofuel Taskforce report, 2007 18

BE Potential in APEC v Australia: grain crops v Canada and USA: grain crops BE Potential in APEC v Australia: grain crops v Canada and USA: grain crops and agricultural residues v Thailand: agricultural residues, animal manure, forest residue, new wood plantation, municipal solid waste Economy Ethanol (Million Liters) Ethanol (Million Tons) Gasoline Equivalent (Million Tons) Australia 9, 804 7. 7 4. 9 Canada 4, 194 3. 3 2. 1 Thailand 54, 831 43. 3 27. 2 United States 352, 565 278. 3 174. 7 total 421, 394 333 209 Source: APEC Biofuel Taskforce report, 2007 19

BD Potential from Available Resources v Australia: oilseed crops, tallow, and waste cooking oil BD Potential from Available Resources v Australia: oilseed crops, tallow, and waste cooking oil v Canada : oilseed crops, animal fats, and other fats and oils v Chinese Taipei: waste cooking oil v Malaysia: crude palm oil Economy Biodiesel (Million Liters) Biodiesel (Million Tons) Diesel Equivalent (Million Tons) Australia 903 0. 8 Canada 473 0. 4 60 0. 05 Malaysia 16, 300 13. 9 total 17, 736 15 15 Chinese Taipei Source: APEC Biofuel Taskforce report, 2007 20

Indonesia’s plan for biofuel production Total biodiesel production capacity: 4. 8 MT Item unit Indonesia’s plan for biofuel production Total biodiesel production capacity: 4. 8 MT Item unit 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 total Substitution of diesel in transportation million KL 11. 9 11. 0 12. 2 12. 3 12. 4   biodiesel production capacity thousand KL 40 240 640 1, 536 2, 360 4, 816 production of palm thousand ton       440 320 760 production of Jatropha thousand ton 40 200 456 504 1, 600 #of plant with 3, 000 ton of cap. number   12 15 15 9 51 #of plant with 30, 000 ton of cap. number   6 10 13 15 44 #of plant with 100, 000 ton of cap. number       2 2 4 area for palm thousand ha   110 80     190 area for Jatropha thousand ha 25 125 250 285 315 1, 000 Source: Ministry of Energy, Indonesia 21

Malaysia’s plan for biofuel production Total production capacity: 0. 5 MT Name of company Malaysia’s plan for biofuel production Total production capacity: 0. 5 MT Name of company Partner production capacity(ton) investment (Million RM) Loreno Sdn Bhd Italy 60, 000 90 Golden Hope/Rubiatech Sdn Bhd MPOB 60, 000 40 Golden Hope Bioganic - 30, 000 10 Kumpulan Fima MPOB 60, 000 40 Carotino MPOB 60, 000 40 Kulim Bhd/Natoleo Cremer. Oleo GMBH 100, 000 - Golden Hope -  150, 000 100 Poic Sabah Ecosolution Co. (Korea) -  180 Bio Energy int. Plc -  -  200 Source: Garten Rothkopf. 22

Thailand’s plan for bioethanol production Name of company Region Feedstock Production capacity(100 liter/day) Pawn Thailand’s plan for bioethanol production Name of company Region Feedstock Production capacity(100 liter/day) Pawn Wi. Lai International Group Trading Co. ltd Ayuddhaya Molaasses 25, 000 Thai Alcohol Plc Nakorn Pa. Thom Molaasses 200, 000 Thai Agro Energy Co. ltd Suphanburi Molaasses 150, 000 Thai Nguan Ethanol Co. Ltd Khon. Khen Cassava 130, 000 Khon. Khen Alcohol Co. Ltd Khon. Khen Sugar. Cane/Molasses 150, 000 Petro. Green Co. ltd Chaiyaphoom Sugar. Cane/Molasses 200, 000 Thai Sugar Ethanol Co. ltd Kanchanaburi Sugar. Cane/Molasses 100, 000 K I Ethanol Co. ltd Nakorn. Ratchasima Sugar. Cane/Molasses 100, 000 EIC B Business Patners Co. ltd Rayong Cassava 150, 000 Fah. Kwan. Thip Co. ltd Pachinburi Cassava 60, 000 Ekara. Phattana Co. ltd Nakorn. Sawan Molasses 200, 000 Ratchaburi Ethanol Co. ltd Ratchaburi Cassava/Molasses 150, 000 Thai Rung. Rueng Energy Co. ltd Saraburi Sugar. Cane/Molasses 120, 000 Petro Green Co. ltd Kanlaseen Sugar. Cane/Molasses 200, 000 E S Power Co. ltd Sa. Keaw Cassava/Molasses 150, 000 Sima Inter Products Co. ltd Cha. Choeng. Sao Cassava 150, 000 Thrup. Thip Co. ltd Lopburi Cassava 200, 000 P S C Starch Products. Plc Chonburi Cassava 150, 000 TPK Ethanol Co. ltd Nakorn. Ratchasima Cassava 340, 000 total     Source: Department of Alternative Energy Development and Efficiency, Ministry of Energy. 2, 925, 000 23

Thailand’s plan for biodiesel production Name of company Region Production capacity(liter/day) Bangchak Bangkok 50, Thailand’s plan for biodiesel production Name of company Region Production capacity(liter/day) Bangchak Bangkok 50, 000 Bio Energy Plus Ayuddhya 100, 000 Suntech Palm Oil Pra. Chinburi 200, 000 Patum Vegetable Oil Pathum. Thanee 300, 000 Bangkok Renewable Energy Cha. Choen. Sao 200, 000 Green Power Chumporn 200, 000 AI Energy Samut Sakorn 250, 000 Weera. Suwan Samut Sakorn 200, 000 Sook. Somboon Energy Chuonburi total   50, 000 1, 550, 000 Source: Department of Alternative Energy Development and Efficiency, Ministry of Energy. 24

Issues in the Biofuel Potential and Economics in APEC v Figures show great potential Issues in the Biofuel Potential and Economics in APEC v Figures show great potential exists in the APEC region Ø Ø 283 million tons of petroleum equivalent biofuels are available However most of them are based on ‘second generation’ lignocellulosic feedstocks Lignocellulosic feedstocks are not cost effective relative to conventional feedstocks More investment on R&D is needed to lower costs of bifuels from lignocellulosic feedstocks v Estimation of costs of biofuels in the APEC (2007) Ø Consists of feedstock costs, fuel conversion cost, and credit for co-products Ø For $100/bbl($0. 63/liter), only Malaysia is competitive for petroleum cost item USA Malaysia Chinese Taipei South Korea crop corn palm waste oil rapeseed oil feedstock cost 0. 21 0. 26 0. 48 1. 58 capital plant cost 0. 03 0. 06 0. 02 0. 03 O&M 0. 12 0. 06 0. 2 credit for by-product 0. 06 0. 005 - 0. 44 total 0. 42 0. 385 0. 7 2. 25 petroleum equivalent 0. 656 0. 448 0. 814 2. 616 Source: APEC Biofuels taskforce, ‘APEC biofuels taskforce task group on biofuel resources’, draft report to 25 APEC energy working group, Mar. 2007

Frontier Issues in the Biofuel Promotion v Zero Sum or Win-Win Game? Ø Expansion Frontier Issues in the Biofuel Promotion v Zero Sum or Win-Win Game? Ø Expansion of biofuel consumption affects agricultural market significantly ü OECD’s estimation of impact of biofuels on the agricultural market ü Demand for vegetable oil and wheat in the EU market increases by 49% and 26% in 2014 ü Demand for sugarcane in Brazil increases by 27% in 2014 ü Along with the sharp increases of demand for crops, world price of vegetable oil and sugar will increase by 15% and 60% Ø Development of unused or marginal arable land: about 2 billions of hectare in the world are available ü Sub-Saharan(0. 9 billion ha), South and Southeast Asian, Latin and Central America(1. 0 billion ha) ü 6 billions KL of biofuels are enough to provide world fuel demand(4. 8 billions KL) ü Transformation from ‘agriculture’ to ‘ergo-culture’ (John Methews) 26

Frontier Issues in the Biofuel Promotion v Impact on biodiversity and climate change Ø Frontier Issues in the Biofuel Promotion v Impact on biodiversity and climate change Ø Desperate threat to endangered species ü There are between 50, 000 and 60, 000 of orang-utan on Borneo and 7, 000 on Sumatra. But 5, 000 ~10, 000 are killed each year ü Forests in Indonesia and Malaysia are being felled so quickly that 98% could be gone by 2022. ü Yet the orang-utan's lowland forest could disappear much sooner (UN report) Ø Increase of GHGs from the plantation for biofuels ü Indonesia emits 600 millions of carbon due to the use of peat or cut-down of timber for plantation of palm ü Issue a certificate for sustainable cultivation of feedstock for biofuel 27

Frontier Issues in the Biofuel Promotion v Extension to Niche market Ø Conversion of Frontier Issues in the Biofuel Promotion v Extension to Niche market Ø Conversion of fish oil into biodiesel: substitute petro-diesel for ships Ø Self-sufficiency of fuel for rural community ü replace petro-diesel used in tractor, combine, and other agricultural machinery ü Small scale biodiesel conversion plants ü Woodchips or wood pellet from transforming the residuals and oil cake of feedstock and seeds Ø Substitute fuels for boilers or power plants ü Low requirements for using the biofuels for heating or electricity generation compared to transportation fuels ü Next generation Technology ü More investment on BTL, Biofuels from marine plants and micro algae ü Ex: South Korea, Australia, Chinese Taipei started experimental projects to develop biofuels from macro/micro algae 28

Special Issue: solution to water pollution Ø Conversion of fish oil into biodiesel: substitute Special Issue: solution to water pollution Ø Conversion of fish oil into biodiesel: substitute petro-diesel for ships ü Bio-degradable BD can be a solution to water pollution by petroleum ü Exxon-Valdez Accident in 1989 killed 0. 6 millions of seabirds, salmon and herring ü Cordova’s residents began biodiesel business using waste fish oil in 2006 ü Tae-an province polluted by crude oil in 2007 may lose fishery industry ü Biodiesel project can offer a solution and convert negative image of the region 29

Biofuels for ships will provide a solution to the destruction of marine ecosystem occurred Biofuels for ships will provide a solution to the destruction of marine ecosystem occurred by leakage of petroleum 30