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Turkish-Israeli Relations: Past, Present and Future MUSTAFA KIBAROGLU, Ph. D. ISP & MTA Fellow Turkish-Israeli Relations: Past, Present and Future MUSTAFA KIBAROGLU, Ph. D. ISP & MTA Fellow Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs John F. Kennedy School of Government HARVARD UNIVERSITY BCSIA Library December 2, 2004

Turkish-Israeli Relations: Past, Present and Future The Past: 500 years of historical relations (1492 Turkish-Israeli Relations: Past, Present and Future The Past: 500 years of historical relations (1492 – 1992) The Present: Strategic relations since 1992 (“win-win”) The Future: Crossroads ahead? (“win-win” or “loose-loose”) December 2, 2004 Mustafa Kibaroglu 2

Turkish-Israeli Relations: Past, Present and Future. . . Ottomans embraced the persecuted Jews of Turkish-Israeli Relations: Past, Present and Future. . . Ottomans embraced the persecuted Jews of Spain in 1492. . . Jews have been loyal to the Ottoman Sultan. . . Jews occupied high ranks in the Ottoman administration. . . Jews supported Turkey’s War of Liberation in 1919 -1922. . . 200 000 Jews had minority status in Turkey after Lausanne. . . Most Jews gone to Israel but some 25 000 remain in Turkey December 2, 2004 Mustafa Kibaroglu 3

Turkish-Israeli Relations: Past, Present and Future. . . Turkey recognized the State of Israel Turkish-Israeli Relations: Past, Present and Future. . . Turkey recognized the State of Israel in 1949. . . Ben Gurion sought close relations with Adnan Menderes. . . Turkish domestic politics and religion obstructed relations. . . NATO membership limited Turkey’s interest in M. East. . . Yom Kippur War and OPEC crisis deteriorated relations. . . Coup in Turkey; Jerusalem Law; Intifada worsened December 2, 2004 Mustafa Kibaroglu 4

Turkish-Israeli Relations: Past, Present and Future. . . Gulf crisis & demise of USSR Turkish-Israeli Relations: Past, Present and Future. . . Gulf crisis & demise of USSR made Turkey turn to M. East. . . Peace Processes lifted Arabs’ tacit embargo on Turkey. . . Redefinition of the relations as “alliance”; “axis”; “entente”. . . Common concerns: “rogue states” & military capabilities. . . Military cooperation agreement (1996): “odd men out”. . . Turkey becomes “virtual strategic depth” of Israel December 2, 2004 Mustafa Kibaroglu 5

Turkish-Israeli Relations: Past, Present and Future December 2, 2004 Mustafa Kibaroglu 6 Turkish-Israeli Relations: Past, Present and Future December 2, 2004 Mustafa Kibaroglu 6

Turkish-Israeli Relations: Past, Present and Future. . . Potentially clashing interests over northern Iraq. Turkish-Israeli Relations: Past, Present and Future. . . Potentially clashing interests over northern Iraq. . . Turks’ concerns with an independent Kurdish state in Iraq. . . Israelis’ concerns with “Islamic” Turkish government(s). . . Turks’ misperceptions about Jewish influence in US politics. . . Bitter political statements by Turkish statesmen. . . Israelis may prefer relying on Kurds rather than Turks December 2, 2004 Mustafa Kibaroglu 7

Turkish-Israeli Relations: Past, Present and Future December 2, 2004 Mustafa Kibaroglu 8 Turkish-Israeli Relations: Past, Present and Future December 2, 2004 Mustafa Kibaroglu 8

Turkish-Israeli Relations: Past, Present and Future. . . “win-win” if confidence and trust can Turkish-Israeli Relations: Past, Present and Future. . . “win-win” if confidence and trust can be restored. . . “loose-loose” if misperceptions & miscalculation persist. . . War against terror cannot be won with nukes or shields. . . Intelligence & information gathering is essential. . . Turkey’s commonalities with M. East & C. Asia are crucial. . . Strategic wisdom must prevail on both sides or both loose December 2, 2004 Mustafa Kibaroglu 9

Turkish-Israeli Relations: Past, Present and Future MUSTAFA KIBAROGLU, Ph. D. ISP & MTA Fellow Turkish-Israeli Relations: Past, Present and Future MUSTAFA KIBAROGLU, Ph. D. ISP & MTA Fellow Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs John F. Kennedy School of Government HARVARD UNIVERSITY BCSIA Library December 2, 2004