- Количество слайдов: 19
Transitions Our civilization has achieved marvels due to cheap fossil fuels. Now we test our true measure. How will we be remembered? There is no energy shortage, there is no energy crisis, there is a crisis of ignorance R. Buckminster Fuller It is a common defect of men in fair weather to take no thought of storms Machiavelli An addict cannot force his pusher to change his criminal habits. L. Kleveman
What Transitions? • Demographic transition – NOT ONLY developing world problem. Developed world esp. NA burdening ALL w/ promise of hi-tech solutions that haven’t come • Only prosperous countries ”fix” pollution – “fix” often by exporting waste activities to developing world – Daunting complexities are defeating even developed world • “science” has failed 80% of humanity. Seeding our civilization’s destruction, but also preserving more for the next? • Energy transition – Short term choices: hard & soft path (bet on nukes because of Kyoto) – Waiting for fusion. Will the next civilization be interplanetary? – Transition is MUCH BIGGER than Apollo program … need • Mental transition: most fundamental! – From planet restricted exp. growth to powerdown
Conserve our Way Through Demographic Transition? If conservation was the answer, then Bangladesh would be the most prosperous nation on earth. J. Pournelle
How Much Longer for Exp. Growth? How Much Longer to Hubbert Peak/Transition? • Ongoing regional collapse • All projections need unproved technologies to extend depletion. No plan B • e. g. North Sea UK Norway
ANWR’s Role When US demand contracts because of deep recession/depression, ANWR will maintain domestic supply for 15 yrs
World Prospects Experience from 70+ countries is that Conventional oil drops 6 -14% annually after peak! Remainder in volatile regions of ancient feuds
But They Have No Excess Oil Extraction Capacity! This trend is unsustainable. Conventional wisdom says China growth will soon slow dramatically, regulated by tight oil. BUT China sucks ‘em dry India 1. China building nukes, dams, & NG deals w/ e. g. Iran as fast as possible. 2. Has huge US debt & $ holdings. Hence $ collapse most likely. How respond?
… an Expensive Contest Still much growth possible in military budget, necessary to confront Iran & esp. China over resources. Military draft for occupation forces? US budget problems due to tax cuts & imports, not military budget.
“My life was shit and it was going to short anyway. So I took up a gun to have a bit of fun before I die. I have nothing to lose. ” Mayor Black Man, Revolutionary United Front, Sierra Leone
Angry, Unemployed Young Men Germany M millions 2050 w/ cheap oil F Pakistan • US’s colossal energy waste, alliances w/ corrupt leaders, & global media control targets us, underscores economic disparity • Devil’s Tears (oil) / Breath (NG) drive regional corruption & conflicts, produces Blowback • Religion fans the conflagration
No More Oil Exploring, Just Consolidation Switching rigs fast from oil to NG
More US Nukes? • Make sense only if most housing retrofitted for electrical heat • Displaces oil & NG. But, displaced is unsuitable for vehicles – Massive electrification of road transport necessary, more use of trains – Improved battery technology for short trips • Electric-gas hybrids (reverse of today) • Once thru fuel-cycle moves to reprocessing, (breeders? ) – But needless complexities (fission prob. beyond our wisdom anyway) if dispense w/ world growth (cancer)
But Nukes Making H 2 is Stupid H 2 production is good use of wind
Wind is Exponentiating • All Europe’s power from two 5 MW turbines every km 2 over 200 x 200 km shown (err, 80, 000) Such a concentrated facility is VERY vulnerable Cheaper. But wind & other non-depleting can’t maintain exp. growth, just slow decline
Advancing the Transition • Impose C tax, or at least price fuels to discourage use of those soon scarce • Focus on electricity grid transport for max flexibility – Long-distance, High-Voltage DC transmission (Fuller world grid) Demand demo – Some in situ electricity generation & local energy storage for security. Spread to developing world! – Smart machines programmed to draw grid power during off-peak times. Minimizes storage & peaking powerplants • Powerdown, buy time for mental transition
When? world oil US NG NOW! < 5 yrs
Will the Developing World Wait? • Don’t understand their coming crisis either (food production) & have no means to • See us grasping what is left, shutting them out – Democrat/Republican govt responds same way – Historical notions of our “peace to all mankind” are obsolete. US becoming despised as wasters/imperialists • “Stateless terrorists” will soon have biowar means to bring us down – Our WMDs do not work against them – Confronting them on own terms will further militarize US – Religious nuts on both sides fan flames exactly when extreme rationality is critical
2 Routes Down the Slope • Endless War from failing Empire – Carter Doctrine, Rumsfeld 10 -30 -30 policy • “Preserve American Way of Life” • Cooperation – E. g. Uppsala Oil Depletion Protocol • Recognize underlying cause, rationalize response • Educate, manage decline/transition • Plan for the worse and hope for the best Stay mentally agile & alert, seek alternatives to corporate media for data to minimize brainwashing. While pursuing dreams, avoid debt traps and prepare for hard times. A bad storm is coming, few are ready, and little of what fills our lives today will be relevant.
Was this inevitable after we discovered the Devil’s Tears & Breath?