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Transitioning space weather models to operations at the UK Met Office Suzy Bingham, David Transitioning space weather models to operations at the UK Met Office Suzy Bingham, David Jackson, Catherine Burnett and Mark Gibbs Met Office, UK ESWW, Thurs. 20 th Nov. 2014 © Crown copyright Met Office

Table of Contents • Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) • Met Office Space Weather Operations Table of Contents • Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) • Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre (MOSWOC) • Research models to operations: process & challenges • Using other NWP methods for space weather • Summary © Crown copyright Met Office The Met Office

Numerical weather prediction • NWP: when current weather observations are assimilated into numerical computer Numerical weather prediction • NWP: when current weather observations are assimilated into numerical computer models & processed using mathematical equations to generate a forecast of the future state of the weather. • Met Office has great experience in NWP methods which can be used for space weather forecasting. Transfer NWP methods for terrestrial weather, to space weather © Crown copyright Met Office

NWP building blocks Building blocks of NWP & some experiences to build upon: • NWP building blocks Building blocks of NWP & some experiences to build upon: • OBSERVATIONS: forecasts depend on knowledge of the current state of the environment. (1) Research in instruments & obs. , (2) real-time acquisition of obs. , (3) implementation of research instruments to operational use. • DATA ASSIMILATION: an accurate representation of the initial state of the environment is vital so assimilatest obs. (1) Fast comms required to gather obs. , (2) expense of computational process. • PREDICTION: use of a mathematical model to generate a forecast. (1) Use of approximations to evaluate equations, (2) model validation. © Crown copyright Met Office

NWP building blocks • UNCERTAINTY/ENSEMBLES: creation of multiple versions of a forecast from different NWP building blocks • UNCERTAINTY/ENSEMBLES: creation of multiple versions of a forecast from different initial states to give info on uncertainty of forecast. (1) Small errors can quickly grow to large, (2) resulting variation gives indication of confidence in forecast. • RISK ASSESSMENT & COMMUNICATION: understand risks of impacts of the forecast & communicate to users. (1) If a large impact is forecast, a group of expert forecasters/scientist/users can be involved in decision making, (2) use of different communication methods (emails, emergency response meetings). • VERIFICATION: to continually improve operational systems. (1) Use metrics to show well the model predicts/ value added by forecaster, (2) work within WMO guidelines. © Crown copyright Met Office

Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre (MOSWOC) • Delivers space weather alerts, warnings & Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre (MOSWOC) • Delivers space weather alerts, warnings & forecasts 24/7. Public forecasts & sector specific forecasts are available: http: //www. metoffice. gov. uk/publicsector/emergencies/space-weather • Sits within terrestrial weather ops centre. • Provides a platform for running space weather models operationally. © Crown copyright Met Office MOSWOC

Operational system at MOSWOC • ‘Operational’ means an automated end-to-end system with: • a Operational system at MOSWOC • ‘Operational’ means an automated end-to-end system with: • a real-time observations stream, • model predictions, • product dissemination & • quality control monitoring. • Models in an operational system are: (1) rigorously tested, (2) imbedded into a robust infrastructure & (3) supported 24/7. • Reasons to run models operationally: • to provide unfailing & timely model output to forecasters, • to enable a research model to be run with 24/7 support (reliably), • to run model after a project has been completed, • resilience/backup to another centre, • one place of focus for information. © Crown copyright Met Office

Research models to operations: the models Operational: • WSA-Enlil, solar wind speed • REFM, Research models to operations: the models Operational: • WSA-Enlil, solar wind speed • REFM, Relativistic Electron Forecasting Model, daily electron fluence forecast at GEO orbit. • D-RAP, D Region Absorption Predictions Model, global map of prediction of radio propagation conditions. REFM (SWPC) © Crown copyright Met Office Enlil (D. Odstrcil) D-RAP (SWPC)

Research models to operations: the models Semi- operational: • Multi Instrument Data Analysis System, Research models to operations: the models Semi- operational: • Multi Instrument Data Analysis System, Bath University, Total Electron Content. • SPACECAST, British Antarctic Survey/EU project, 0 -3 hr forecast of >2 Me. V electron flux. MIDAS © Crown copyright Met Office SPACECAST

Research models to operations: the process 1. Run research model on desktop PC. 2. Research models to operations: the process 1. Run research model on desktop PC. 2. Run revised model on development environment. 3. Run model on operational suite and view output on forecaster webpages. © Crown copyright Met Office • Review licence and terms of use of model and input data. • Understand model processes, input data and output data. • Rewrite in Met Office standard language if necessary. • Adapt code to Linux platform if written in Windows. • Adapt code to run using Met Office database input if necessary. • Change model area covered e. g. to Europe, depending on customer requirements. • Change cadence to meet customer requirements, e. g. REFM changed to 3 hours when originally ran daily. • FTP input files through firewall. • Write ROSE script to auto-run model on operational suite. • Test model doesn’t affect other processes on IBM. • Model resolution can depend upon speed/expense on IBM. • Some commands may need to be changed to run on IBM. • Adapt visualisation code to Met Office style. • Verify output. • Complete Met Office documentation to allow model to run on operational suite.

Operational process Process to follow to run a model or service operationally in the Operational process Process to follow to run a model or service operationally in the Met Office. © Crown copyright Met Office

Research models to operations: output Once a model is running operationally, output is viewed Research models to operations: output Once a model is running operationally, output is viewed on internal Met Office webpages forecaster use. Forecasts are then provided on the external webpages for public/sector specific use. MO internal webpages: WSA-Enlil & REFM © Crown copyright Met Office External webpage: http: //www. metoffice. gov. uk/publi csector/emergencies/spaceweather

Further work following NWP methods • Note: need to understand space weather needs & Further work following NWP methods • Note: need to understand space weather needs & not just use off the shelf NWP solution. • Ongoing: implementing models operationally. • WSA-Enlil ensemble forecasting – research stage. • Verification – initial stages. Evaluation of models & forecasts to check they meet & continue to meet requirements. © Crown copyright Met Office

Proposal for “Carrington” – a UK Space Weather Mission • A Sun-Earth Sentinel at Proposal for “Carrington” – a UK Space Weather Mission • A Sun-Earth Sentinel at L 5. • First Operational Space Weather mission – addresses MOSWOC requirements. • High technology readiness, low risk, low cost. • High UK heritage: instruments developed by UK scientists. • Fast transfer to L 5 for a 10 -year mission. • 24/7 operations, 100% coverage, continuous data. • Excellent research output. • UKMO, UK Cabinet office, protects UK infrastructure hence growth. • Very large potential for UK industry and UK science to lead the field. • Excellent opportunity for UK/US bilateral. © Crown copyright Met Office

Summary • Met Office has built upon its experience using NWP methods, for transitioning Summary • Met Office has built upon its experience using NWP methods, for transitioning space weather models to operations. • Challenges which arise when implementing models operationally include: rewriting code & ftping input data through firewalls. • Continue to transition research models to operations. • Continue to use NWP methods for space weather forecasting. © Crown copyright Met Office

Questions and answers © Crown copyright Met Office Questions and answers © Crown copyright Met Office

Enlil model • Purpose: Models solar wind speed & density from Sun to Earth. Enlil model • Purpose: Models solar wind speed & density from Sun to Earth. Predicts CME arrival times at Earth, leading to onset of potential geomagnetic disturbances causing problems in radio comms, GPS navigation, etc. • Developer: D. Odstrcil • Input: Output from WSA uses solar magnetograms to predict background solar wind speed & IMF providing inner boundary conditions for Enlil (we currently use NOAA files). • Output: Run every 2 hrs to produce animation of forecast of solar wind at Earth, STEREO A & B, for next few days. • Cadence: 1 GONG synoptic map/hr © Crown copyright Met Office

CME analysis tools • Purpose: Tool to allow calculation of CME parameters for input CME analysis tools • Purpose: Tool to allow calculation of CME parameters for input into Enlil. Allows user to model evolution of CME outwards from Sun to estimate CME path & arrival time at Earth. • Developer: NASA (Stereo. CAT) & NOAA (CAT) • Input: use STEREO A & B & LASCO images. Fit CME images with a cone over a period of time. Uses triangulation from different viewpoints of spacecraft. • Output: CME parameters (origin, direction, speed, half-width). Input into Enlil to predict CME arrival at Earth. © Crown copyright Met Office

SPACECAST • Purpose: Solar activity triggers bursts of energetic particles. High energy particles can SPACECAST • Purpose: Solar activity triggers bursts of energetic particles. High energy particles can damage satellites & are hazard to manned spaceflight & aviation. Daily fluence is related to deep dielectric charging in spacecraft. SPACECAST predicts high energy electron fluxes/fluence at geostationary orbit (GOES orbit), Galileo/GPS orbit & Slot region orbit. • Developer: BAS/EU project • Input: FTP files from BAS model (flux at fixed energies for a range of L* & 2 Me. V differential flux at a range of pitch-angles & L*) • Output: 0 -3 hr forecast of >2 Me. V electron flux & associated risk index at different orbits. Plot of electron fluence compared with that measured by GOES satellite. © Crown copyright Met Office

REFM • Purpose: Relativistic Electron Forecast Model. Predicts daily build up of electron flux REFM • Purpose: Relativistic Electron Forecast Model. Predicts daily build up of electron flux for next 3 days at geosynchronous orbit. Allows satellite operators to e. g. plan maintenance, implement protection measures to minimise charging of satellite components. • Developer: NOAA SWPC • Input: ACE solar wind speed, GOES electron flux data (>2 Me. V), GOES particle flux data (>30 Me. V). • Output: >2 Me. V electron fluence at GSO orbit. 1 -3 day forecast produced once a day. • Future: Can also be run using Enlil solar wind speed to give 8 day forecast. © Crown copyright Met Office

MIDAS • Purpose: Multi-Instrument Data Analysis System. Images ionospheric activity in real-time. Takes delay MIDAS • Purpose: Multi-Instrument Data Analysis System. Images ionospheric activity in real-time. Takes delay in GPS signal to produce European region map of Total Electron Content (TEC) nowcast. • Developer: Bath University • Input: Measurements from ground- & spaced-based GPS receivers, & point estimates of local electron density. • Output: TEC map over Europe every 15 mins © Crown copyright Met Office

D-RAP • Purpose: D-Region Absorption Prediction (in ionosphere, 50 -90 km). Provides real-time data D-RAP • Purpose: D-Region Absorption Prediction (in ionosphere, 50 -90 km). Provides real-time data of the degradation of HF (3 -30 MHz) radio propagation conditions (due to solar X-ray flares & solar radiation storms). Provides HF degradation data at all latitudes on sunlit side of Earth. • Developer: NOAA SWPC • Input: GOES X-ray flux (1 min) & proton flux (5 min), estimated 3 hr Kp, L-values from geomagnetic model • Output: Real-time predictions of the global absorption conditions of the Dregion, every 1 min. © Crown copyright Met Office