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The State of Consumer Tech Key drivers, disrupters and developments (or How Today’s Technology The State of Consumer Tech Key drivers, disrupters and developments (or How Today’s Technology is Shaping Tomorrow’s Content) 2008 Hollywood Post Alliance Technology Retreat Copyright © 2007 Consumer Electronics Association

Copyright © 2007 Consumer Electronics Association Copyright © 2007 Consumer Electronics Association

CEA Market Research Consumer Research Sales Data & Forecasts Economic Analysis 30 studies per CEA Market Research Consumer Research Sales Data & Forecasts Economic Analysis 30 studies per year 300+ study archive Sell-in data program 5 -year forecasts Econometric modeling Quarterly webcasts Copyright © 2007 Consumer Electronics Association

Trends to Watch Heading Into 2008 1 It “Goes to Eleven” Phenomenon Alive and Trends to Watch Heading Into 2008 1 It “Goes to Eleven” Phenomenon Alive and Well Faster, smaller, clearer, greater capacity, cheaper, etc. 2 360° Solutions 3 Distribution Evolves Further integration of device, accessories, content, service, network and community New methods, ideas and models better connect consumers & content 4 Mobility Redefined Speed, range, coverage, content and product diversity receive a boost Copyright © 2007 Consumer Electronics Association

1 “It Goes to Eleven” Phenomenon For a number of reasons, it is tough 1 “It Goes to Eleven” Phenomenon For a number of reasons, it is tough to predict exactly what products and services will emerge, but it is safe to assume there will be plenty of product improvements and innovations at the margin. As usual, consumer electronics products will get smaller, faster, clearer, lighter, more efficient, increased capacity, longer runtime, higher resolution, more reliable and larger screens, while getting less expensive. "We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run. " - Amara’s Law Copyright © 2007 Consumer Electronics Association

A Brief History of Time Year when product reached ~25% household penetration 2007 2001 A Brief History of Time Year when product reached ~25% household penetration 2007 2001 1995 1990 1991 1968 1930 Copyright © 2007 Consumer Electronics Association 2006 25 CE products per household 9. 7 CE products per household

A Closer Look at Television Digital Displays | Millions of units DTV penetration ~50% A Closer Look at Television Digital Displays | Millions of units DTV penetration ~50% HDTV penetration rate ~39% 20% of DTV Sets in 2007 were 1080 P. By 2011, nearly 80% of sets will be 1080 P. Copyright © 2007 Consumer Electronics Association e – estimated, p - projected

The Next Generation of DVD Next Gen DVD | Thousands of units Next Gen The Next Generation of DVD Next Gen DVD | Thousands of units Next Gen DVD could approach 30% HH penetration over the next 4 years. Copyright © 2007 Consumer Electronics Association e – estimated, p - projected

Digital Media Players: More than just Audio Household penetration will exceed 50% by year’s Digital Media Players: More than just Audio Household penetration will exceed 50% by year’s end and continue to rise to 70% 65% 39% 14% Copyright © 2007 Consumer Electronics Association 75% 82% 88%

2 360° Solutions Copyright © 2007 Consumer Electronics Association 2 360° Solutions Copyright © 2007 Consumer Electronics Association

Device Accessories Peripherals 360° Solutions Community Demo | Setup Content Service User generated content Device Accessories Peripherals 360° Solutions Community Demo | Setup Content Service User generated content Copyright © 2007 Consumer Electronics Association Platforms

Services Redefining the Experience del. icio. us Copyright © 2007 Consumer Electronics Association Services Redefining the Experience del. icio. us Copyright © 2007 Consumer Electronics Association

And Shaping the Technologies Copyright © 2007 Consumer Electronics Association And Shaping the Technologies Copyright © 2007 Consumer Electronics Association

Empowerment | Personalization DVR Penetration 25% 9% January 2005 January 2008 Copyright © 2007 Empowerment | Personalization DVR Penetration 25% 9% January 2005 January 2008 Copyright © 2007 Consumer Electronics Association

Watch the Partnerships • Macrovision & Cinema. Now • Netflix & LG • NBCU Watch the Partnerships • Macrovision & Cinema. Now • Netflix & LG • NBCU & San. Disk • San. Disk & Yahoo • Samsung & Cinema. Now • Xohm Alliance • Long Term Evolution (LTE) Copyright © 2007 Consumer Electronics Association • Android Alliance • Samsung & USA Today • Blackberry & Sling Media • Project Canoe Today’s Rumors • MSFT & Netflix

3 Distribution Evolves Copyright © 2007 Consumer Electronics Association 3 Distribution Evolves Copyright © 2007 Consumer Electronics Association

Distribution Evolves Broadband = 51%, but many newbies Home Theater = 26% 30% have Distribution Evolves Broadband = 51%, but many newbies Home Theater = 26% 30% have a wired or wireless home network • Wide area connections (Wi. Max, Wi. Fi/Hotspots, Cell, Broadband, Sling. Media) • Local area connections (Ethernet, Wi. Fi, HDMI) Copyright © 2007 Consumer Electronics Association • Personal networks (RF, Bluetooth, OE integration) • Connecting services (VOIP, vlogs, blogs, social networks)

Bridging Gaps in the Home Copyright © 2007 Consumer Electronics Association Bridging Gaps in the Home Copyright © 2007 Consumer Electronics Association

Desired Activities Using Home TV Control Personalize Interact Share Explore Connect Copyright © 2007 Desired Activities Using Home TV Control Personalize Interact Share Explore Connect Copyright © 2007 Consumer Electronics Association

Seeking a Change? Content Distribution Method Current Preferred Difference Physically move content 50% 25% Seeking a Change? Content Distribution Method Current Preferred Difference Physically move content 50% 25% -25% Centrally stored content 5% 23% 18% Place shifting device 5% 13% 8% Move copies of content Use network 10% 9% 5% 5% -4% Physically move device 21% 4% -17% Remotely stored content NA 1% NA Other 2% 1% -1% None 31% 24% -7% Copyright © 2007 Consumer Electronics Association

The Networked Home Desktop PC Present Future Laptop PC Television DVR Media Server Security The Networked Home Desktop PC Present Future Laptop PC Television DVR Media Server Security System Appliances Copyright © 2007 Consumer Electronics Association Products Connected to the Internet

Signs of the Time • In the last 18 months Nielson has bought all Signs of the Time • In the last 18 months Nielson has bought all or part of: – Telephia (mobile analytics) – Buzzmetrics (user generated content analytics) – Neurofocus (neuroscience applied to advertising and messaging) – Audience Analytics (TV analytics and software to analyze interactive television data and VOD transactions) Copyright © 2007 Consumer Electronics Association

4 Mobility Redefined Copyright © 2007 Consumer Electronics Association 4 Mobility Redefined Copyright © 2007 Consumer Electronics Association

More Devices, More Options 1% -1% 17% 3% all | 19% DM 7% 28% More Devices, More Options 1% -1% 17% 3% all | 19% DM 7% 28% 36% 32% 44% Copyright © 2007 Consumer Electronics Association Ownership Rate 2008 $ Growth Rate

And Redefining Mobile Content 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. Currently And Redefining Mobile Content 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. Currently Wanting to Do Doing Listen to Music 94% 75% Listen to other audio content 21% 39% Listen to Podcasts 20% 29% View Digital Photos 20% 39% Watch Movies 18% 40% Play Games 12% 24% Watch Music Videos 13% 31% Watch TV Programming 8% 38% Watch Home Movies 8% 26% Copyright © 2007 Consumer Electronics Association

Content Dominating in the End Share of Time Spent Online 35% just 18 months Content Dominating in the End Share of Time Spent Online 35% just 18 months ago Copyright © 2007 Consumer Electronics Association Source: OPA, CEA

Multi-faceted Life = Multi-faceted Device Smartphones unit grow exceeds 30% in 2008 The line Multi-faceted Life = Multi-faceted Device Smartphones unit grow exceeds 30% in 2008 The line between the professional life and personal life is increasingly blurring Millions of units Copyright © 2007 Consumer Electronics Association Source: CEA Sales and Forecast

Less than 1 year More than 1 year Wireless Subscription Lengths Email Internet Texting Less than 1 year More than 1 year Wireless Subscription Lengths Email Internet Texting Video PTT Copyright © 2007 Consumer Electronics Association Gaming Music Navigation Rings Base: Cell Phone Owners Info Alerts Pictures

“Hyper Local” Emerges • 33% of Online Consumers are Interested In a Cell Phone “Hyper Local” Emerges • 33% of Online Consumers are Interested In a Cell Phone with GPS Capabilities • Hyper local search and advertising makes mobile Internet more personal and compelling • Information further empowers consumers leading to even stronger demand for mobile devices • 47% of consumers are interested in using a GPS device to find restaurants and gas stations. • 43% are interested in being about to see their kids’ or pets’ location on a computer Copyright © 2007 Consumer Electronics Association

We Trust our “Friends” Wisdom of the Crowds is enlarging the circle of trust We Trust our “Friends” Wisdom of the Crowds is enlarging the circle of trust Copyright © 2007 Consumer Electronics Association

Mobility in the U. S. and Abroad Global CE Expenditures Top $600 Billion 1 Mobility in the U. S. and Abroad Global CE Expenditures Top $600 Billion 1 Billion Mobile Phones Sold to be 2008 USA CHINA INDIA RUSSIA #1 Television #1 Mobile phone #1 Web enabled mobile #2 Mobile phone #2 Digital Camera #2 Television #2 Mobile phone #3 Laptop/notebook PC #3 Desktop Computer #4 Digital Camera #4 Web enabled mobile #4 Laptop/notebook PC #5 Desktop Computer #5 Digital Camera #6 DVD Player #6 Television #6 Portable MP 3 #6 Television #7 Portable MP 3 #7 Cordless home ph. #7 In-dash car stereo Intent to buy over next three years by online consumers in each country Copyright © 2007 Consumer Electronics Association

Industry Insider View Moving into 2008 Copyright © 2007 Consumer Electronics Association Industry Insider View Moving into 2008 Copyright © 2007 Consumer Electronics Association

Connectivity + Distribution Copyright © 2007 Consumer Electronics Association Connectivity + Distribution Copyright © 2007 Consumer Electronics Association

Advertising Expectations Over Next 5 Years Social networking sites Web content advertising, e. g. Advertising Expectations Over Next 5 Years Social networking sites Web content advertising, e. g. ad before You. Tube video Search paid listings Guerrilla and other forms of non traditional advertising Advertising in video games Product placements Advertising on cell phones Advertising in virtual worlds like Second Life Display/banner ads Event sponsorships Television commercials Radio commercials Print ads in newspapers/magazines Copyright © 2007 Consumer Electronics Association

Expectations for Using Social Networking to Reach Customers in 2008 Video sites Mainstream social Expectations for Using Social Networking to Reach Customers in 2008 Video sites Mainstream social networking sites Niche social networking sites Music sites Social news sites Virtual worlds Photo sites None of the above Copyright © 2007 Consumer Electronics Association Twenty-five percent of CEAP members are currently using social networking sites to sell/market to consumers, while 17% are using these applications to reach business customers.

Trends to Watch Heading Into 2008 1 It “Goes to Eleven” Phenomenon Alive and Trends to Watch Heading Into 2008 1 It “Goes to Eleven” Phenomenon Alive and Well Faster, smaller, clearer, greater capacity, cheaper, etc. 2 360 Degree Solutions 3 Distribution Evolves Further integration of device, accessories, content, service, network and community New methods, ideas and models better connect consumers & content 4 Mobility Redefined Speed, range, coverage, content and product diversity receive a boost Copyright © 2007 Consumer Electronics Association

Thank You See you in Vegas – January 8 th-11 th Shawn Du. Bravac Thank You See you in Vegas – January 8 th-11 th Shawn Du. Bravac Chief Economist Consumer Electronics Association [email protected] org Copyright © 2007 Consumer Electronics Association