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The Next Wave Preparing for the Next Wave Jack Powers Director, International Informatics Institute The Next Wave Preparing for the Next Wave Jack Powers Director, International Informatics Institute Teacher, New York University

The Next Wave Copyright 2002 by the International Informatics Institute, Inc. Please note that The Next Wave Copyright 2002 by the International Informatics Institute, Inc. Please note that this material is copyrighted. Permission is given here for private presentations WITH ATTRIBUTION ONLY. No public presentation is permitted without the express written consent of the International Informatics Institute, Inc. Contact [email protected] 3. org for permission. To save space, web pages used in the original presentation have been replaced with their URLs. 2

The Next Wave See courseware page. . . in 3. org http: //in 3. The Next Wave See courseware page. . . in 3. org http: //in 3. org/education/events/020422. htm 3

The Next Waves w w w w Human Capital Hardware and Telecom in Stasis The Next Waves w w w w Human Capital Hardware and Telecom in Stasis Software Ascendant Internet Everywhere Wi-Fi Rolls Out Artificial Intelligence Ripples 4

The Next Wave See web page. . . f%$#edcompany. com 5 The Next Wave See web page. . . f%$#edcompany. com 5

The Next Wave See web page. . . amazon. com catalog 6 The Next Wave See web page. . . amazon. com catalog 6

The Next Wave See web page. . . Dot-Com Death Rate Slides In 1 The Next Wave See web page. . . Dot-Com Death Rate Slides In 1 Q Yahoo News 7

The Next Wave See web page. . . Aeron Chairs Foosball Games 8 The Next Wave See web page. . . Aeron Chairs Foosball Games 8

The Next Wave Hardware Deflation w E Machines 900 MHz Celeron PC — 20 The Next Wave Hardware Deflation w E Machines 900 MHz Celeron PC — 20 GB/128 MB/48 x/56 K/XP — $399. 99 plus monitor w HP Jornada Pocket PC — 64 MB Color — $649. 99 w IA-54, Infiniband, Hyper. Transport, SANs: Storage Area Networks Grid, Autonomous Computing 9

The Next Wave Telecom Glut w Next. Wave, Teligent, 360 Networks, Covad, Excite@Home. . The Next Wave Telecom Glut w Next. Wave, Teligent, 360 Networks, Covad, [email protected] . . w $55 B JDS Uniphase, $20 B Nortel w Jack’s House — Cable Modem 3. 2/1$40/mo — Consumer DSL 1. 5/. 25 $40/mo — Commcl DSL 1. 1/1. 1 $200/mo 5. 8/2. 35 $280/mo w ~4 T-1 lines, <$300/mo 10

The Next Wave Broadband Stall w 76% of consumers aware of high speed w The Next Wave Broadband Stall w 76% of consumers aware of high speed w 14% have high speed access at home w Prices increasing w Providers decreasing w Peer-to-peer file sharing 11

The Next Wave See web page. . . FMI-TV 12 The Next Wave See web page. . . FMI-TV 12

The Next Wave January 2002 1. 19 billion broadband hours 1. 14 billion narrowband The Next Wave January 2002 1. 19 billion broadband hours 1. 14 billion narrowband hours 2. 3 billion total hours 13

The Next Wave Software Ascendant w Hardware budgets slashed — CTO as IT decision The Next Wave Software Ascendant w Hardware budgets slashed — CTO as IT decision maker w Hardware margins shrinking w IT Dissatisfaction 14

The Next Wave Web Application Services w IBM Websphere w Sun ONE w Microsoft. The Next Wave Web Application Services w IBM Websphere w Sun ONE w Microsoft. NET w Lots of vendor push w Not much user pull 15

The Next Wave Web Application Services w Network Software Platform w SOAP: Simple Object The Next Wave Web Application Services w Network Software Platform w SOAP: Simple Object Access Protocol w UDDI: Universal Description, Discovery, and Integration w WSDL: Web Services Description Language w WSFL: Web Service Flow Language 16

The Next Wave See web page. . . Google Web APIs 17 The Next Wave See web page. . . Google Web APIs 17

The Next Wave Internet Everywhere w Immersive IP w The Internet Home — Broadband, The Next Wave Internet Everywhere w Immersive IP w The Internet Home — Broadband, residential gateways — Powerline, phoneline, wireless — Entertainment, collaboration w Embedded IP 18

The Next Wave See web page. . . Two-Chip Web Server 19 The Next Wave See web page. . . Two-Chip Web Server 19

The Next Wave See web page. . . Internet Washing Machines 20 The Next Wave See web page. . . Internet Washing Machines 20

The Next Wave See web page. . . LIPA Thermostat 21 The Next Wave See web page. . . LIPA Thermostat 21

The Next Wave See web page. . . Net. Gear 802. 11 b Wi-Fi The Next Wave See web page. . . Net. Gear 802. 11 b Wi-Fi Access Point 22

The Next Wave See web page. . . NYC Wireless Wi-Fi Network Map 23 The Next Wave See web page. . . NYC Wireless Wi-Fi Network Map 23

The Next Wave See web page. . . Joltage Broadband Wireless Service 24 The Next Wave See web page. . . Joltage Broadband Wireless Service 24

The Next Wave Wirefree Infrastructure w Mobile Phone Internet w Fixed wireless — 802. The Next Wave Wirefree Infrastructure w Mobile Phone Internet w Fixed wireless — 802. 11 b (11 Mbps) 2. 4 Ghz — 802. 11 a (54 MBps) 5 Ghz — 802. 11 g (22 MBps) 2. 4 Ghz — Bluetooth — Satellite, microwave, laser — 802. 11 x MANs 25

The Next Wave 3 G Mobile Phones w Enhanced telephony w 2 Mbps data The Next Wave 3 G Mobile Phones w Enhanced telephony w 2 Mbps data transfer w Multimedia Messaging Service w Streaming media 26

The Next Wave See web pages. . . Handspring Treo WDA Handspring Visor. Phone The Next Wave See web pages. . . Handspring Treo WDA Handspring Visor. Phone 27

The Next Wave See web page. . . AOL Instant Messenger 28 The Next Wave See web page. . . AOL Instant Messenger 28

The Next Wave See web page. . . HP Jornada 928 WDA 29 The Next Wave See web page. . . HP Jornada 928 WDA 29

The Next Wave See web page. . . e. World. Track Wireless Tennis Shoe The Next Wave See web page. . . e. World. Track Wireless Tennis Shoe Demo 30

The Next Wave See web page. . . Digital Angel Bio-tracker 31 The Next Wave See web page. . . Digital Angel Bio-tracker 31

The Next Wave See web page. . . Smart Dust 32 The Next Wave See web page. . . Smart Dust 32

The Next Wave Artificial Intelligence w w w Systems that Learn, Judge and Act The Next Wave Artificial Intelligence w w w Systems that Learn, Judge and Act Expert Systems Machine Learning XML Standardization Intelligent Agents — “Know” Bots — Shopping Bots — Personalization Bots 33

The Next Wave See web page. . . Google Search: “Jack Powers” 34 The Next Wave See web page. . . Google Search: “Jack Powers” 34

The Next Wave See web page. . . Vivisimo Search: “Jack Powers” 35 The Next Wave See web page. . . Vivisimo Search: “Jack Powers” 35

The Next Wave See web page. . . Amazon. com Personalized Recommendations 36 The Next Wave See web page. . . Amazon. com Personalized Recommendations 36

The Next Wave See web page. . . My. Simon Shopping Bot 37 The Next Wave See web page. . . My. Simon Shopping Bot 37

The Next Wave See web page. . . The Semantic Web Scientific American May The Next Wave See web page. . . The Semantic Web Scientific American May 2001 38

The Next Wave SHOE: Simple HTML Ontology Extensions w HTML-based knowledge representation <DEF-CATEGORY NAME= The Next Wave SHOE: Simple HTML Ontology Extensions w HTML-based knowledge representation 39

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The Next Wave See web page. . . Cyc. Corp Example: #$Skin 41 The Next Wave See web page. . . Cyc. Corp Example: #$Skin 41

The Next Waves w w w w Human Capital Hardware and Telecom in Stasis The Next Waves w w w w Human Capital Hardware and Telecom in Stasis Software Ascendant Internet Everywhere Wi-Fi Rolls Out Artificial Intelligence Ripples 42

The Next Wave Ripples w w w Internet Voice Telematics Browser wars Copyright and The Next Wave Ripples w w w Internet Voice Telematics Browser wars Copyright and licensing Privacy and trust issues 43

The Next Wave Internet Voice w Voice Response — Voice. XML w Voice Control The Next Wave Internet Voice w Voice Response — Voice. XML w Voice Control — Conversay w Voice Access — Tell. Me, Etrieve, Be. Vocal 44

The Next Wave See web pages. . . Tell. Me Voice Portal Be. Vocal The Next Wave See web pages. . . Tell. Me Voice Portal Be. Vocal Voice Portal 45

The Next Wave See web page. . . On. Star Telematics Agent Specs 46 The Next Wave See web page. . . On. Star Telematics Agent Specs 46

The Next Wave Browser Wars w w w Internet Explorer vs Netscape vs Opera The Next Wave Browser Wars w w w Internet Explorer vs Netscape vs Opera WAP: Wireless Access Protocol Palm VII Web clipping Avantgo Limited appliances Voice 47

The Next Wave Copyright 48 The Next Wave Copyright 48

The Next Wave INTERNET TIMELINE 2020 1995 2002 We are at the start of The Next Wave INTERNET TIMELINE 2020 1995 2002 We are at the start of a twenty five year revolution in the way humans work, learn, buy, do business … and play. 49

The Next Wave ADVERTISEMENT IN 3. ORG Executive Education Programs: Investing in Talent and The Next Wave ADVERTISEMENT IN 3. ORG Executive Education Programs: Investing in Talent and Vision Successful technology development relies on the brains, the vision and the talent of the people who conceive and produce compelling and profitable new communications and computing applications. Since 1982, IN 3 has helped senior management at publishing, media and IT operations around the world to understand, use and profit from emerging technologies. 50