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The Future of Online Learning and a Look at Emerging Technologies Curt Bonk, Ph. The Future of Online Learning and a Look at Emerging Technologies Curt Bonk, Ph. D. Indiana University Course. Share. com http: //php. indiana. edu/[email protected] edu

The future of e-learning is learner-centric (Adler & Rae, Jan. , 2002, e-learning mag) The future of e-learning is learner-centric (Adler & Rae, Jan. , 2002, e-learning mag) • Imagine that in the future you will have your own personalized learning environment that reflects your individual style and learning needs, and is instantly available. Not only will it be your one point of learning entry for everything you need to learn, but it will continue to learn as you learn and modify its behavior based on interacting with you over time.

Welcome to your future Internet, Alan Boyle, MSNBC, March 17, 2002 • Have you Welcome to your future Internet, Alan Boyle, MSNBC, March 17, 2002 • Have you ever checked your e-mail over a high-speed Internet connection, while waiting at a bus stop? • Have you ever chatted with your pals on the Net, using high-definition television? • How about hooking your car up to the Internet so that someone knows where you are at all times?

Future of E-Learning Survey • Instructor-Led #1 in next 24 months, Internet/Intranet #2, Multimedia Future of E-Learning Survey • Instructor-Led #1 in next 24 months, Internet/Intranet #2, Multimedia #3 • Most use Web as supplement to instructor-led • All Technology: – – – 1. Knowledge management tools 2. Wireless Technology, 3. Reusable Learning Objects, 4. Peer-to-Peer Collaboration, 5. Mentoring, 6. Language Support • Want White Papers on Course Design/Dev.

Find a Winning Blend (Andy Snidor, March 2002, e-learning Magazine) “…there is no real Find a Winning Blend (Andy Snidor, March 2002, e-learning Magazine) “…there is no real vendor or approach that provides the complete solution…Finding the ideal blend of technology and nontechnology delivery components and matching those with appropriate content and structure is not a very complex process if the goals are clear. ”

To understand future, must know technologies of today! To understand future, must know technologies of today!

Today: Six Categories of ELearning Vendors Today (Clark Aldrich, 2001, Global Learning 2008) 1. Today: Six Categories of ELearning Vendors Today (Clark Aldrich, 2001, Global Learning 2008) 1. LMS Portals: infrastructure 2. LCMS: tools for content library 3. Virtual Classrooms: synchronous instructor (and asynchronous) 4. Off-the-shelf: bus & IT courses 5. Custom Content: build courses 6. Integrators: solutions (Eduprise)

1. LMS Management Technologies (Karrer, 2001, Online Learning Conference) • • • Choices: Saba, 1. LMS Management Technologies (Karrer, 2001, Online Learning Conference) • • • Choices: Saba, Docent, Plateau, Click 2 Learn, Sun. Content: Off the Shelf LMS, Custom LMS, SCORM compatible Report Recommendations: 1. Hall, B. (2000 a). Learning management systems: How to choose the right system for your organization. Sunnyvale, CA: Brandon-Hall. com. 2. Hall, B. (2000 b). Live e-learning: How to choose a system for your organization. Sunnyvale, CA: Brandon-Hall. com.

2. LCMS Management Technologies (Karrer, 2001, Online Learning Conference) • LCMS: WBT Systems, Global 2. LCMS Management Technologies (Karrer, 2001, Online Learning Conference) • LCMS: WBT Systems, Global Knowledge, Knowledge. Xtensions, etc. • Learning objects (Power. Point slides, video clips, illustrations, quiz questions, course modules): Organize and deliver them in infinite ways

3. Synchronous Instructor-Led Technologies (Karrer, 2001, Online Learning Conference) • Virtual Classroom: Net. Meeting, 3. Synchronous Instructor-Led Technologies (Karrer, 2001, Online Learning Conference) • Virtual Classroom: Net. Meeting, Placeware, Centra, Horizon. Live, Web. Ex • Web-Casts, Whiteboards, Chats, Live Surveys, Polls, Reports, Web Browsing, File Transfer, Application Sharing, Archives, Break-Out Rooms

Asynchronous Instructor-Led Technologies • Sitescape Forum, First. Class, Blackboard Asynchronous Instructor-Led Technologies • Sitescape Forum, First. Class, Blackboard

4. E-Learning Content Ø Ø Ø Capella Click 2 Learn Colleges/Universities Digital Think Docent, 4. E-Learning Content Ø Ø Ø Capella Click 2 Learn Colleges/Universities Digital Think Docent, Inc. Eduprise Element K e. Mind. com e. Socrates Execu. Train Jones International University Knowledge. Net Ø Knowledge Planet Ø Mentergy--includes Learn. Linc products Ø Microsoft Training and Service Ø Netg Ø Prime Learning Ø Saba Ø Smart Force Ø Thin. Q (i. e. , Trainingnet) Ø Train. Seek Ø Vcampus Ø Viviance New Education Ø Walden Univ. /Institute

How bad is the content? How bad is the content?

Timeout for a break from our sponsors… Timeout for a break from our sponsors…

The Future Note: any predictions are bound to be too conservative!!! The Future Note: any predictions are bound to be too conservative!!!

14 E-Learning Technologies of Future? 1. Human Resource Portals/Business Development Resources 2. Communities of 14 E-Learning Technologies of Future? 1. Human Resource Portals/Business Development Resources 2. Communities of Practice 3. Electronic Books 4. Instructor/Trainer Portals 5. Knowledge Management 6. Intelligent Agents 7. Online Language Support 8. Online Mentoring 9. Online Simulations 10. Peer-to-Peer Collaboration 11. Reusable Knowledge Objects 12. Virtual Worlds/Virtual Reality/AI 13. Wearable Computing 14. Wireless Technology 15. Assistive Technologies

1. Human Resource Portals/Business Development Resources • Dial a job • Job matching • 1. Human Resource Portals/Business Development Resources • Dial a job • Job matching • Resume sharing • Contract workers ======= • E-Learning Courses • E-Learning Instructors • Secure New Business

But What About RPF Matching Sites? But What About RPF Matching Sites?

2. Communities of Practice • Awareness of who is in the space – Roster 2. Communities of Practice • Awareness of who is in the space – Roster of who belongs – Roster of who is currently viewing materials; • Customization of the space for the group – a customized identifying banner • Ability to interact in multiple synchronous and asynchronous ways. • Place for a community to identify who they are – charter, principles, membership, goals, etc.

Community Space at Eli Lilly “The space is continuing to evolve, but the intention Community Space at Eli Lilly “The space is continuing to evolve, but the intention is to create a place that feels like you are with other people …Community. Space works best when we have spent time building a community environment as opposed to using the technology in isolation. Building of relationships is critical to community success and we have found this difficult to do on-line alone. ”

Expert Chat: Java Programmers Expert Chat: Java Programmers

3. Electronic Books 3. Electronic Books

4. Instructor/Trainer Portals 4. Instructor/Trainer Portals

5. Intelligent Agents/AI 5. Intelligent Agents/AI

The future of e-learning is learner-centric (Adler & Rae, Jan. , 2002, e-learning mag) The future of e-learning is learner-centric (Adler & Rae, Jan. , 2002, e-learning mag) “You could also choose to have an intelligent, interactive mentor who pops up anytime you choose when you need a little performance support. For example, you may be writing a technical brief when you realize you need more in-depth information on the topic. You could then click on a mentor icon on your desktop to bring up the intelligent mentor. The mentor would gather the learning objects necessary and deliver them to the environment, which would assemble them for an immediate learning experience. ”

6. Knowledge Management 6. Knowledge Management

7. Online Language Support (pronunciation, communication, vocabulary, grammar, etc. ) 7. Online Language Support (pronunciation, communication, vocabulary, grammar, etc. )

Typical Features (e. g. , Englishtown (millions of users from over 100 countries) • Typical Features (e. g. , Englishtown (millions of users from over 100 countries) • • • Online Conversation Classes Experienced Teachers (certified ESL) Expert Mentors Peer-to-Peer Conversation Private Conversation Classes Placement Tests Personalized Feedback University Certification Self-Paced Lessons

8. Online Mentoring Expert mentors novice from remote location Carnegie Mellon Univ. 8. Online Mentoring Expert mentors novice from remote location Carnegie Mellon Univ.

Peer Questions & Team Meeting Peer Questions & Team Meeting

Adventure Learning Purpose: engage in adventurous study of the global environment. (e. g. , Adventure Learning Purpose: engage in adventurous study of the global environment. (e. g. , Telepresence or virtual fieldtrips, ask an expert forums, cross-classroom collaboration, debate forums, Maya. Quest)

A web’s that’s out of this world Alan Boyle, MSNBC, Nov. 8, 1999 • A web’s that’s out of this world Alan Boyle, MSNBC, Nov. 8, 1999 • NASA and network gurus are working together to extend the Internet to other worlds in the next few years. But there are some limits that not even the World Wide Web can route around, such as the speed of light. So the builders of the Interplanetary Internet are going back to the basics, retooling protocols for future communications with Mars and beyond.

The future of e-learning is learner-centric (Adler & Rae, Jan. , 2002, e-learning mag) The future of e-learning is learner-centric (Adler & Rae, Jan. , 2002, e-learning mag) “At the beginning of the learning module, you can decide whether you wish to have your learning tracked and reported to you or to your personnel file in the company's HR system. Summary information about the course you complete would be stored in your personalized learning environment for immediate retrieval whenever you need it for refresher learning…The digital mentor adapts and "learns" how you are learning and asks questions that branch you to additional learning if you choose it. ”

9. Online Simulations (Simu. Learn) 9. Online Simulations (Simu. Learn)

Simu. Learn’s Virtual Leader Components 1. Power: explores the effects of informal (i. e. Simu. Learn’s Virtual Leader Components 1. Power: explores the effects of informal (i. e. , expertise and recognized alliances) and formal (e. g. , title) power 2. Ideas: explores effective strategies for generating ideas 3. Tension: looking at how tension affects performance • Once the 3 ingredients are aligned and balanced, the leaders commit to a course of action. (fosters creativity, role play, DM’ing)

Indeliq Indeliq

Ninth House: Management Scenarios Ninth House: Management Scenarios

10. Peer-to-Peer Collaboration (Group-enabled Project Management) Possibilities: 1. Data Sharing (www. napster. com) 2. 10. Peer-to-Peer Collaboration (Group-enabled Project Management) Possibilities: 1. Data Sharing (www. napster. com) 2. Resource Sharing (www. intel. com/cure/overv iew. htm) 3. Workgroup Collaboration (www. groove. net)

Grove creates a shared space to explain problems, receive assignments, post course updates, hold Grove creates a shared space to explain problems, receive assignments, post course updates, hold group meetings, write and edit papers, and teach students research methods.

Next Generation P 2 P Collaboration e. Week, Groove 2. 0 Professional Edition, Jason Next Generation P 2 P Collaboration e. Week, Groove 2. 0 Professional Edition, Jason Brooks, May 20, 2002 • Groove now integrates somewhat with certain elements of Microsoft Corp. 's Office. For example, we created a new shared space from a message within Outlook, from which we could launch a discussion of the message. We could collaboratively review and edit a Word document that had been attached to the message. While working with that Word document, one user at a time could make edits, taking control via a Groove-specific tool bar. Groove also opened a chat window in which reviewers could discuss their edits…collaborators to collect and view data in their shared spaces.

Some go so far as to say… Some go so far as to say…

11. Reusable Knowledge Objects 11. Reusable Knowledge Objects

“Appealing to the attention-deficit society…online learning will only be taken up by employees as “Appealing to the attention-deficit society…online learning will only be taken up by employees as part of continuous professional development if it is engaging, highly relevant and available in small doses. …A fiveminute “learning object” can be digested in between phone calls or meetings. ” Sarah Murray, Dec 2001, Financial Times. com; interview with Terry Nulty, President, Element K

What is a Learning Object? • “Learning Objects are small or large resources that What is a Learning Object? • “Learning Objects are small or large resources that can be used to provide a learning experience. These assets can be lessons, video clips, images, or even people. The Learning Objects can represent tiny "chunks" of knowledge, or they can be whole courses. ” Claude Ostyn, Click 2 Learn

Displaying Learning Objects Stephen Downes, New Tools, New Media “Consider the impact of a Displaying Learning Objects Stephen Downes, New Tools, New Media “Consider the impact of a resource like Martindale’s Health Science Guide, a resource center listing 60, 000 teaching files and 129, 000 medical cases. Such a resource if made available to medical schools around the world, would greatly facilitate the creation of courses in medicine…. ” (as well as sustainable revenue for the center)

Sharable Content Object Reference Model A software model that defines the interrelationship of course Sharable Content Object Reference Model A software model that defines the interrelationship of course components, data models, and protocols such that content “objects” are sharable across systems that conform with the same model. (Bob Wisher, 2001)

“Publishers” Software Developers Book Publishers Hollywood Producers Newspapers On-Line Services Technology ISDN MPEG/DVI Photo “Publishers” Software Developers Book Publishers Hollywood Producers Newspapers On-Line Services Technology ISDN MPEG/DVI Photo CD HDTV Quick. Time OS/2 Windows USERS Distribution Cable Companies Broadcasters Telephone Cos. Computer Nets Retail Stores

A Model for Standards Evolution AICC IMS ARIANDNE R&D Concepts Spec Consortia Technical Specifications A Model for Standards Evolution AICC IMS ARIANDNE R&D Concepts Spec Consortia Technical Specifications ADL ALIC Labs Testbeds Labs, Testbeds Markets Testbeds, Markets IEEE Standards Bodies Reference Models Accredited “Applications Standards Profiles” ISO Approved Standards

ADL Strategy (Bob Wisher, 2001) l Use network-based technologies l Promote large-scale cooperation to ADL Strategy (Bob Wisher, 2001) l Use network-based technologies l Promote large-scale cooperation to satisfy common needs l Create platform-independent, reusable content l Develop common specifications for interoperability /reuse l Enhance performance with emerging and next-generation technologies l Provide incentives for organizational and cultural change

ADL Functional Requirements (Bob Wisher, 2001) Accessible: access instructional components from one location and ADL Functional Requirements (Bob Wisher, 2001) Accessible: access instructional components from one location and deliver them to many other locations Interoperable: use instructional components developed in one location with a different platform in another location Reusable: incorporate instructional components into multiple applications Durable: operate instructional components when base technology changes, without redesign or recoding Affordable: increase learning effectiveness significantly while reducing time and costs

Standards Make Things Work • Railroad tracks • Lightbulbs • Power outlets • Beer Standards Make Things Work • Railroad tracks • Lightbulbs • Power outlets • Beer bottle caps • Phone lines • The Internet Standards for interchangeable parts and data… …we take them for granted

Judy Brown, 2001 Judy Brown, 2001

12. Virtual Worlds/Virtual Reality l. Avatars--representations of people l. Objects--representations of objects l. Maps--the 12. Virtual Worlds/Virtual Reality l. Avatars--representations of people l. Objects--representations of objects l. Maps--the landscape which can be explored l. Bots--artificial intelligence

Possibilities for Corporate Training • Virtual seminars and presentations, with distant colleagues interacting within Possibilities for Corporate Training • Virtual seminars and presentations, with distant colleagues interacting within a virtual conference hall • Demonstration of new building designs that people can explore, discuss and modify • Demonstrations of processes or models that are difficult to understand with static graphs/charts

13. Wearable Computing 13. Wearable Computing

Keyglove Build it yourself Contacts on fingers allow to type by touching fingers “chorded” Keyglove Build it yourself Contacts on fingers allow to type by touching fingers “chorded” keyboard Mouse on back Next version wireless to control up to 6 devices

IBM Vision. Pad IBM Wearable Think. Pad Created as a small laptop Applications will IBM Vision. Pad IBM Wearable Think. Pad Created as a small laptop Applications will determine how close it meets our model

14. Wireless Technology 14. Wireless Technology

Wireless Training “The best kind of Performance Support keeps employees knowledge “fresh” and always Wireless Training “The best kind of Performance Support keeps employees knowledge “fresh” and always within reach. Wireless technology makes that possible in ways that have never been possible before, and an area which presents completely new training and performance support options for companies. ”

15. Assistive Technologies (includes disability compliance software codings) Close your eyes and imagine what 15. Assistive Technologies (includes disability compliance software codings) Close your eyes and imagine what is like to be visually impaired and reliant on the Web! (http: //www. rit. edu/%7 Eeasi/)

So What Happens to Instructors and Students in the Future? ? ? So What Happens to Instructors and Students in the Future? ? ?

“We are evolving out of the era of the Lone Rangers…faculty members can choose “We are evolving out of the era of the Lone Rangers…faculty members can choose to be involved in the design, development, content expertise, delivery, or distribution of course…” (Richard T. Hezel) Sarah Carr, (Dec 15, 2000, A 47), A Day in the Life of a New Type of Professor, The Chronicle of Higher Education

Faculty Member in 2020 • • Track 1: Technical Specialist Track 2: Personal Guide Faculty Member in 2020 • • Track 1: Technical Specialist Track 2: Personal Guide Track 3: Online Facilitator Track 4: Course Developer Track 5: Course or Program Manager Track 6: Work for Hire Online Lecturer Track 7: High School Teacher Track 8: Unemployed

Track 1: Technical Specialist • Help critique technical aspects of media and materials built Track 1: Technical Specialist • Help critique technical aspects of media and materials built into online courses. Here one would be part of a course development team or instructional design unit. Freelance learning object evaluator. Here one would likely operate alone or as part of a consulting company.

Track 2: Personal Guide • Provide program or course guidance to students on demand Track 2: Personal Guide • Provide program or course guidance to students on demand or preplanned. Becomes more of a generalist across university offerings. For example, one might help students see how different learning objects or modules fit together into a degree.

Track 3: Online Facilitator • Offers timely and informed support to students struggling to Track 3: Online Facilitator • Offers timely and informed support to students struggling to complete an online course or inserting questions and nudging development of students who are successfully completing different modules. This is the most similar to college teaching positions today.

Track 4: Course Developer • Help develop specific courses or topic areas for one Track 4: Course Developer • Help develop specific courses or topic areas for one or more universities. In many institutions, this will move beyond a course royalty system to a paid position.

Track 5: Course or Program Manager • Supervisor or manager of an entire new Track 5: Course or Program Manager • Supervisor or manager of an entire new program or courses, most often leading to certificates or master’s degrees. Similar in stature to a development head or chairperson.

Track 6: Work for Hire Online Lecturer • Is a freelance instructor for one Track 6: Work for Hire Online Lecturer • Is a freelance instructor for one course or a range of course. May work on just one campus or on a range of campuses around the world. While this will be highly popular and rejuvenate careers, institutional policies are yet to be sorted out.

Track 7: High School Teacher • As universities begin to offer secondary degrees, some Track 7: High School Teacher • As universities begin to offer secondary degrees, some college faculty with online teaching experience and teaching degrees will find positions in those classes. Some may view such positions as being demoted to the minor leagues.

Track 8: Unemployed • If one does not find a niche in one or Track 8: Unemployed • If one does not find a niche in one or more of the above tracks or roles, he or she will likely be unemployed or highly unsuccessful.

Student Differences in 2020 • Live Longer • More Educated – Multiple Degrees – Student Differences in 2020 • Live Longer • More Educated – Multiple Degrees – Accustomed to Multiple Learning Formats – Design own programs and courses • • Specialists AND Generalists Courses/Degrees for unknown occupations Expect to Take Courses Where Live Cyber-students (various digital aids attached to appendages)

Possible Scenarios in Year 2020 • • • Virtual U’s and Traditional U’s Coexist Possible Scenarios in Year 2020 • • • Virtual U’s and Traditional U’s Coexist Traditional Univ’s buy stake in Virtual U’s Traditional Univ’s form Consortia Some Trad U’s Move Ahead, Some Don’t Other Technology arise well beyond Web Large Virtual U’s Buy Competing Traditional U’s and shut them down

What Uses for Old Institutions of Higher Learning? ? ? • • Museums Historical What Uses for Old Institutions of Higher Learning? ? ? • • Museums Historical Monuments Bomb Shelters Resorts and Apartment Complexes Nostalgic Retirement Homes Green Space Prisons

Some Final Advice… Or Maybe Some Questions? ? ? Some Final Advice… Or Maybe Some Questions? ? ?