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The African Economic Outlook 2008 OECD Council Meeting April 2008 UNECA 1 1 The African Economic Outlook 2008 OECD Council Meeting April 2008 UNECA 1 1

1 The African Economic Outlook Project 2 Macroeconomic Outlook: challenges and opportunities 3 Skills 1 The African Economic Outlook Project 2 Macroeconomic Outlook: challenges and opportunities 3 Skills Development: Investing in African Youth OECD Council Meeting April 2008 2 2

AEO An Evolving Partnership: from 2007 Lead partner Junior partners UNECA Experts Network Consultants, AEO An Evolving Partnership: from 2007 Lead partner Junior partners UNECA Experts Network Consultants, think tanks … Financial Partner OECD Council Meeting April 2008 3 3

AEO An innovative product • Comprehensive, independent analysis 1. Overview & annual thematic focus AEO An innovative product • Comprehensive, independent analysis 1. Overview & annual thematic focus 2. Comparable country chapters 3. Statistical annex and indicators OECD Council Meeting April 2008 • Short-term macroeconomic forecasts • Special annual focus 2003: Privatization 2004: Energy 2005: SMEs 2006: Transport 2007: Water and sanitation 2008: Technical & vocational skills development 4 4

A strong African voice in policy dialogue AEO Promoting public debate on economic policies A strong African voice in policy dialogue AEO Promoting public debate on economic policies • At national level (African policy makers) • At regional and continental level (input for African Peer Review Mechanism) • Building indicators tracking main APRM areas of focus • Promoting best practice and lessons learned through experience Supporting the International Dialogue on Africa’s Development • Monitoring capacity-building in infrastructure, trade, institutions • Monitoring policy reforms, financial flows for development Millennium Development Goals • Monitoring progress in 31 countries in 2007, 35 in 2008 • AEO, a joint Af. DB/OECD/UNECA contribution to Goal 8 OECD Council Meeting April 2008 5 5

Coverage 2008: 35 African countries AEO New in 2008: Tunisia Cape Verde Morocco Liberia Coverage 2008: 35 African countries AEO New in 2008: Tunisia Cape Verde Morocco Liberia Algeria Libya Egypt Libya Mauritania Equatorial Guinea Niger Cape verde Mali Senegal Chad Sudan Eritrea Gambia Burkina Faso Guinea-Bissau Guinea Sierra Leone Côte d'Ivoire Djibouti Benin Nigeria Ethiopia Togo Central African Republic Ghana Liberia Cameroon Somalia Equatorial Guinea Uganda Congo Sao Tome et principe Gabon Kenya Rwanda Dem. Rep. Congo 91% of GDP Burundi AEO 2008 Tanzania Comores 86% of population Angola Malawi Zambia Mozambique Zimbabwe Madagascar Namibia Botswana Mauritius Swaziland South Africa Lesotho OECD Council Meeting April 2008 6 6

Net Progression in Media Impact AEO Citations in mainstream media Source: OECD Council Meeting Net Progression in Media Impact AEO Citations in mainstream media Source: OECD Council Meeting April 2008 7 7

AEO Policy Impact and Dissemination In 2007, over 1500 participants at 35 events • AEO Policy Impact and Dissemination In 2007, over 1500 participants at 35 events • Africa and OECD capitals: governments, parliamentarians, civil society, private sector, … • Some AEO country notes and Policy Insights released in Portuguese, Italian, German Input in international dialogue on Africa • Reference document in the G 8 document (St Petersburg, July 2006) • NEPAD Secretariat, EC, UN, World Bank, IMF, APF • Annual Af. DB meetings, OECD Global Forum on Agriculture, ABCDE, Aspen, LINK, Afristat, European Council on Africa … OECD Council Meeting April 2008 8 8

1 The African Economic Outlook Project 2 Macroeconomic Outlook: challenges and Opportunities 3 Skills 1 The African Economic Outlook Project 2 Macroeconomic Outlook: challenges and Opportunities 3 Skills Development: Investing in African Youth OECD Council Meeting April 2008 9 9

Growth Africa continues steady growth Real GDP growth expected to exceed 5% for the Growth Africa continues steady growth Real GDP growth expected to exceed 5% for the fifth consecutive year in 2008 , and reach 5. 9% Real GDP Growth Africa More countries with GDP growth rate above 5% : • 2007: 25 countries over 5% • 2008: 31 countries over 5% • 2007: 13 countries between 3 -5% • 2008: 16 countries between 3 -5% Total OECD Growth in 2009 will remain sustained at 5. 9% Source: OECD Development Centre / African Development Bank, 2008 OECD Council Meeting April 2008 10 10

Growth Oil exporters and importers: future reconverging? Real GDP Growth • Growth rates for Growth Oil exporters and importers: future reconverging? Real GDP Growth • Growth rates for oil importer and oil exporter countries diverged significantly in 2007 and 2008 • However, this difference is set to narrow in 2009 Source: OECD Development Centre / African Development Bank, 2008 OECD Council Meeting April 2008 Net Oil exporters: Algeria, Angola, Cameroon, Chad, Congo, 11 Côte d'Ivoire, Congo DRC, Egypt, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Libya, Nigeria, Sudan 11

Commodities The commodity boom: a key driver for Africa Global commodity prices 2001 -2009 Commodities The commodity boom: a key driver for Africa Global commodity prices 2001 -2009 Source: OECD Development Centre / World Bank, 2008 OECD Council Meeting April 2008 12 12

Investment Record investment in 2007: a new driver? Public and Private Investment in % Investment Record investment in 2007: a new driver? Public and Private Investment in % of GDP Source: OECD Development Centre / UNCTAD, 2008 OECD Council Meeting April 2008 13 13 31

China / India A new driver of African growth OECD Council Meeting April 2008 China / India A new driver of African growth OECD Council Meeting April 2008 14 14

Oil - X Sustained growth in oil-producing countries Outstanding achievers: Angola: 11. 8% average Oil - X Sustained growth in oil-producing countries Outstanding achievers: Angola: 11. 8% average growth 2000 -07 Algeria: 4% average growth 2000 -07 Assets: • Sustained and prolonged growth • Improving macro management • Raising Investment in non-oil sectors Disappointing performers: Gabon: 1. 7 average growth 2000 -07 Chad: strong growth between 2001 -05 stagnation in 2006/07 Liabilities: • Structural declining productivity of old oil fields • Declining growth Source: Af. DB/OECD *: African Economic Outlook forecasts 15 OECD Council Meeting April 2008 15

Oil - M Good Growth but of what quality? Best performers, average growth 2000 Oil - M Good Growth but of what quality? Best performers, average growth 2000 -07 : Tanzania: 6. 7 % Ghana: 5. 2 % Tunisia: 4. 9 % Assets: • Sustained and prolonged growth • Prudent macroeconomic policies • Decreasing poverty Poor quality growth: Mozambique: strong growth but not broad-based, stagnating poverty Senegal: erratic growth, high vulnerability to food imported inflation Source: Af. DB/OECD *: African Economic Outlook estimate 16 OECD Council Meeting April 2008 16

Food Prices Significant food price inflation African Cereal Production (million tonnes) Africa North Africa Food Prices Significant food price inflation African Cereal Production (million tonnes) Africa North Africa Western Africa Central Africa Eastern Africa Southern Africa 2006(e) 2007(e) 144. 1 36 49. 1 3. 6 33. 9 21. 5 135. 6 28. 9 47. 4 3. 5 33. 9 21. 9 Change 20062007 (%) -5. 9 -19. 8 -3. 5 -2. 7 0 2. 1 Source: OECD Development Centre / FAO, 2008 Source: OECD Development Centre & Thomson Datastream, 2008 OECD Council Meeting April 2008 17 17

Stability Is long term decline in political instability continuing? Regime Hardening (LHS) Qualitative data Stability Is long term decline in political instability continuing? Regime Hardening (LHS) Qualitative data obtained from Marchés Tropicaux et Méditerranéens. Data is used to construct two indicators referring to: Political instability: occurrence of strikes, demonstrations, violence and coup d’état. Hardening of the political regime : incarcerations of opponents, measures threatening democracy such as dissolution of political parties, violence perpetrated by the police and the banning of demonstrations or public debates. Source: OECD Development Centre “Moving towards political stability? Monitoring political instability, governments response and economic performance in African countries” forthcoming article, April 2008. OECD Council Meeting April 2008 18 18

Outlook Oil exporter & importers: divergent paths? Growth Fiscal Balance Oil and Mineral exporters Outlook Oil exporter & importers: divergent paths? Growth Fiscal Balance Oil and Mineral exporters Challenges: • Capitalise on windfall gains • Maximise spillover to rest of the economy • Avoid Dutch Disease Oil importers Challenges: • Contain fiscal deficit • Finance widening trade deficit • Streamline spending to prioritise Inflation* Trade Balance poverty reduction Inflation is a challenge for all the continent Source: OECD Development Centre, African Economic Outlook, 2008 OECD Council Meeting April 2008 19 19

Common challenge: Increase diversification to raise Diversificatio export volumes n In 2007, only 12 Common challenge: Increase diversification to raise Diversificatio export volumes n In 2007, only 12 out of 35 AEO countries increased export volume by 5 per cent or more n n Diversification should be fostered to sustain growth and fight against raising import costs n Between 2002 and 2006 29 african countries have further specialised. The 10 less diversified countries are all oil exporters The 5 most diversified include Tunisia, Morocco, South Africa, Tanzania and Senegal OECD Council Meeting April 2008 20 20

Subprime African economies safe from U. S downturn? Due to a low share of Subprime African economies safe from U. S downturn? Due to a low share of external trade with the U. S, Africa is less vulnerable to effects of U. S subprime woes Algeria African Exports by Destination - 2006 Egypt Nigeria Angola South Africa Morocco European Union (25) United States Others Source: OECD Development Centre / UN Comtrade, 2008. (data on Nigeria corresponds to last available year, 2003) Note: The “Others” category includes Latin America, Middle East Asia and South Asia. 21 OECD Council Meeting April 2008 21

Aid n Foreign aid as a catalyst for development Net Official Development Assistance to Aid n Foreign aid as a catalyst for development Net Official Development Assistance to Africa (all donors, constant 2005 USD billion) Source: OECD Development Centre / African Development Banks, 2008 OECD Council Meeting April 2008 22 22

MDGs Slow progress, despite growth Goal 1 Goal 2 Goal 3 Goal 4 Goal MDGs Slow progress, despite growth Goal 1 Goal 2 Goal 3 Goal 4 Goal 5 Goal 6 Goal 7 Source: OECD Development Centre / African Development Bank, 2008 OECD Council Meeting April 2008 23 23

Key Messages n n n Africa doing better – due to favorable external environment Key Messages n n n Africa doing better – due to favorable external environment but, as importantly, due to internal factors Prospects for sustained improvement are brightened by new drivers of growth such as increased economic relations with China and India. At the same time, emerging risks including rising food prices cloud the future prospects African countries need to take advantage of the improved prospects and deepen reforms to safeguard against the emerging risks Africa’s development partners should maintain support in line with commitments 24

1 The African Economic Outlook Project 2 Macroeconomic Outlook: Challenges and Opportunities 3 Skills 1 The African Economic Outlook Project 2 Macroeconomic Outlook: Challenges and Opportunities 3 Skills Development: Investing in African Youth OECD Council Meeting April 2008 25 25

Definition Technical and vocational skills development Acquisition of knowledge and practical competences & knowhow Definition Technical and vocational skills development Acquisition of knowledge and practical competences & knowhow Public or private TVET schools Formal Dual Training Workplace training in enterprises Degree of formalization of labour market OECD Council Meeting April 2008 Informal Apprentices hip Informal 26 26

TVSD Mode Public Training Centres Delivery Modalities Strengths Weaknesses n Follow-up national pol. n TVSD Mode Public Training Centres Delivery Modalities Strengths Weaknesses n Follow-up national pol. n Inflexible and irresponsive n Important providers n Large variation of quality Private Training Providers n Fastest growing segment n Range of pgm. & quality vary Traditional Apprenticeships n Targets informal sector n Training of poor quality n Self-financed & self-regulated n Unsuitable for modern industry Enterprise Based Training n Self-financed & self-regulated NGOs n Address priority skills needs n Training for vulnerable groups n Flexible absorption of demand n On-the-job & high relevance n Based on actual tasks performed n Linked to existing prod. techn. OECD Council Meeting April 2008 n Outdated curriculum n Training: Low capital invest. n Prohibitive tuition fee n Very long training period n Training is selective (large firms) n Small firms less likely to train 27 27

Enrolment statistics only show part of the picture ACCESS The percentage in total secondary Enrolment statistics only show part of the picture ACCESS The percentage in total secondary enrolment of technical African countries can be and vocational programmes in 2005 grouped in three categories: Tunisia Morocco Algeria Libya Mauritania Group I: Proportion of TVET enrolment > 10%. Egypt Niger Mali Senegal Chad Sudan Eritrea Gambia Guinea-Bissau Burkina Faso Guinea Djibouti Nigeria Sierra Leone Côte d'Ivoire Liberia Ethiopia Togo Ghana Central African Republic Cameroon Somalia Equatorial Guinea Uganda Group II: Proportion of TVET enrolment between 5 % and 9%. Congo Gabon Group I: Group II: Group III: Others: Kenya Rwanda Dem. Rep. Congo Group III: Proportion of TVET enrolment <5%. Burundi Tanzania Angola Malawi Zambia Mozambique Zimbabwe Madagascar Namibia Others: Data not available Botswana Swaziland South Africa Lesotho OECD Council Meeting April 2008 28 28

Upper secondary (ISCED 3) n n n Enrolment in technical and vocational programmes (%) Upper secondary (ISCED 3) n n n Enrolment in technical and vocational programmes (%) Gender inequalities in TVET is significant. 6 out of 34 countries were F% enrolment rates in total secondary education (all pgm. ) >50%. 7 out of 37 countries were F% enrolment rates in total secondary education (general pgm. ) > 50% 7 out of 27 countries the female enrolment rate were higher in ISCED 3 (TVSD). The more equitable in terms of gender, the higher the percentage of TVET participation. Source: OECD Development Centre, UNESCO-UIS, 2006 OECD Council Meeting April 2008 29 29

Selected country examples n n n Main targets and policies for 2015 regarding TVSD Selected country examples n n n Main targets and policies for 2015 regarding TVSD Ethiopia plans to increase its admissions to TVE from 103 708 (2005) to 312 826 (2010) and 624 095 by 2015. Gambia and Ghana have committed a 50 per cent increase in the number of TVE institutions. Mauritania has engaged in a reform to offer opportunities for skills training adapted to labour market needs. Mozambique in 2005 launched a pilot reform to increase participation in secondary and TVE. Rwanda has plans to increase the number of TVE institutions by 50 per cent by 2015. South Africa the national objective is to reach a million students by 2014 -2015, compared to the current 276 000. OECD Council Meeting April 2008 30 30

Lessons Learnt Constraints on TVSD’s impact & expansion TVSD Missing links National development policy Lessons Learnt Constraints on TVSD’s impact & expansion TVSD Missing links National development policy Weak links Industry Skills needs & educational curricula Post-Secondary and Tertiary Institutions Firm-based and informal training The lack of a coherent strategic approach OECD Council Meeting April 2008 31 31

Lessons Learnt 1. Vision and Planning Adopting a Clear vision: n n Ghana: A Lessons Learnt 1. Vision and Planning Adopting a Clear vision: n n Ghana: A Presidential Committee on Education & TVET Council Bill passed Senegal: Launched a TVSD reform making the TVSD a tool for competitiveness Yet in many cases it remains difficult to identify the leading institution. Reforms of TVSD are successful and sustainable: • based on broad ownership • clear mandate and authority over resources. 2. Improve Forecasting and Planning for Skills Needs n n Successful TVSD reforms include • long-term planning • setting up of a clear legal and regulatory framework Zambia: 2005 – Technical, Vocational and Entrepreneurship Training Authority Ethiopia: Conduct on-site visits to help acquired skills take root Benin: Systematically M&E craft enterprises and SMEs. OECD Council Meeting April 2008 32 32

Lessons Learnt Quality Improvement & Informal Sector 3. Improving the quality of TVSD • Lessons Learnt Quality Improvement & Informal Sector 3. Improving the quality of TVSD • • Recent reforms have witnessed a switch from a provider-driven training model to a demanddriven one. Countries are developing pilot initiatives establishing new TVET National Qualification Framework (NQF): n Ethiopia: New Quality Management System (2006) n South Africa: A new statement for the NQF was developed to enhance the efficacy and efficiency (2007) n Tunisia: Set up a national framework for quality in VET 4. Addressing the skill needs of the informal sector • • Training in the informal sector should go hand-in-hand with other instruments, such as: e. g. fiscal policies and provision of credit. Benin: The traditional apprenticeship evolved into a dual training sys. Senegal: Pilot scheme to transform traditional apprenticeship into a dual system. Ethiopia: Accreditation of skills by making training in the informal sector an integral part of the training system. OECD Council Meeting April 2008 33 33

Lessons Learnt Innovation & Partnership 5. Facilitate The Growth of the Productive Sector through Lessons Learnt Innovation & Partnership 5. Facilitate The Growth of the Productive Sector through Technological Learning and Innovation • Some countries are designing integrated programs that couple access to finance with appropriate short-term, accessible, relevant training for the informal sector to foster innovation and improve performance. • Rwanda: Partnership for the Enhancement of Agribusiness in Rwanda (PEARL) (2001). • Af. DB & ILO: Support to growth oriented women (GOWE). 6. Foster Partnership with All stakeholders • Policy design and actual delivery of education and training can best be achieved through a partnership between government, social partners and various stakeholder groups in the formal and informal sectors of the economy. • Egypt: The most successful example of PPP between training institutions & businesses is the Mubarak-Kohl Initiative (MKI). OECD Council Meeting April 2008 34 34

Lessons Learnt Local Communities & Management 7. Involving Local Communities • TVSD must be Lessons Learnt Local Communities & Management 7. Involving Local Communities • TVSD must be adapted to local and regional needs. • Experience has shown that regional participation and local control play a key role in determining the success of TVSD initiatives. • Malawi: The success of the Skills Development and Income Generation Project (SDIG) is due to the community development approach. 8. Strengthening Local Management of TVSD • Decentralising the management of TVSD. • Delegation of responsibilities to regional authorities. • Ethiopia: Consider establishing autonomous TVET Authorities at federal and state levels. • Tunisia: The decentralization process is based on the devolution of responsibilities to the training centres. • Mozambique: Insufficient pedagogical, managerial, and administrative capacity to discharge new responsibilities. OECD Council Meeting April 2008 35 35

Financing TVSD Challenges n The training system in Africa is largely underfinanced. n Many Financing TVSD Challenges n The training system in Africa is largely underfinanced. n Many enterprises under-train their staff. n Donors’ support to training has been erratic & insufficient to upgrade the quality and access to training. n A pressing issue for African countries is to make better use of existing funds n Move towards: • Greater diversification of funding sources for TVSD, • Development of private training markets, • Encouragement of more and higher quality enterprise training. n State retains the crucial role of designing financial support mechanisms to facilitate access by the poor and vulnerable. OECD Council Meeting April 2008 36 36

Public expenditure on TVET (% total public expenditure on education) in Selected African Countries Public expenditure on TVET (% total public expenditure on education) in Selected African Countries n n In Africa, public preemployment training is mostly financed by government’s budgetary allocations On average, only about 2 to 6% of educational budgets are devoted to (mainly formal) TVSD. OECD Council Meeting April 2008 37 37

Financing 1. Diversification of funding sources for TVSD Financing Pre-employment Training • Botswana: Community-owned Financing 1. Diversification of funding sources for TVSD Financing Pre-employment Training • Botswana: Community-owned TVET centres generate external income by involving training in productive work. • Malawi: Lilongwe Technical College has improved the relevance of its training through relations with the private sector and market. • South Africa: Implementation of Cost-sharing schemes. 2. Financing Continuing Training: • Most African countries have set up National Training Funds to generate sufficient funds to support skills training and motivate firms • South Africa: Continuing training is financed through a skills development levy-grant scheme. • Côte d’Ivoire: The payroll levy financed Vocational Development Training Fund in Côte d’Ivoire (FDFP) has extended its areas of training support to include training for small firms and the informal sector. OECD Council Meeting April 2008 38 38

Financing n n Total Bilateral ODA for TVSD still dwarfed by Bilateral ODA for Financing n n Total Bilateral ODA for TVSD still dwarfed by Bilateral ODA for Primary Education (commitments in USD millions, 2005) The share of bilateral donor ODA commitments to primary education increased from 11% in 1995 to 34% in 2006. The share of vocational training in bilateral ODA commitment to education remains unaltered at around 3 -4% throughout the entire period. 2003 -2006, Higher education, 40% 2003 -2006, Vocational Secondary training, 4% education, 3% OECD Council Meeting April 2008 2003 -2006, Other, 24% 2003 -2006, Primary education, 29% 39 Other Primary education Secondary education Vocational training Higher education 39

Challenges n TVSD in Specific Contexts In order for TVSD to be fully effective, Challenges n TVSD in Specific Contexts In order for TVSD to be fully effective, they need to form part of integrated policies directed at economic growth & decent work (DW) 1. Youth Unemployment: n n n 133 million young people (>50% of youth population) in Africa illiterate. Many young people have little or no skills and are excluded from DW. Incidence of youth unemployment in SSA >20%. 2. Fragile States: n n Large numbers of people become trapped in a cycle of violence, often because of lack of educational and decent employment opportunities. TVSD is a vital part of reintegration and reconstruction in post-conflict situation, and is seen as the 4 th pillar of humanitarian response. 3. Migration: n n Brain Drain: High rates of emigration among highly skilled workers. Emigration can benefit home countries through remittances, investments, diaspora networks, circular migration. OECD Council Meeting April 2008 40 40

Main Messages n n n Technological Change and Globalization is increasing the demand for Main Messages n n n Technological Change and Globalization is increasing the demand for a more educated and skilled workforce (enhance competitiveness) Both governments and the private sector will need to respond to improve education, and train and upgrade skills of the workforce Pay attention to non-TVET issues: • Access to and quality of general education • An integrated policy environment (technology, investment, etc) n n n Encourage private provision and financing of TVET Many enterprises do not train despite potentially large productivity gains from formal training Different TVSD policy options exist, which ones are most appropriate depend on country conditions (tailor schemes to context) Evaluate impacts of TVSD policies to improve effectiveness of training programs, and to design and implement reforms TVSD critical in the context of: • Rising youth unemployment • Fragile states • Globalization and migration 41

Thank you More information: www. oecd. org/dev/aeo www. afdb. org OECD Council Meeting April Thank you More information: www. oecd. org/dev/aeo www. afdb. org OECD Council Meeting April 2008 42 42