4c09c8e51b3090a41d6193b822015a26.ppt

• Количество слайдов: 22

Special Products Break-Even Analysis • The Special Products Company produces expensive and unusual gifts. • The latest new-product proposal is a limited edition grandfather clock. • Data: – – If they go ahead with this product, a fixed cost of \$50, 000 is incurred. The variable cost is \$400 per clock produced. Each clock sold would generate \$900 in revenue. A sales forecast will be obtained. Question: Should they produce the clocks, and if so, how many? Mc. Graw-Hill/Irwin 2 © The Mc. Graw-Hill Companies, Inc. , 2003

Expressing the Problem Mathematically • Decision variable: – Q = Number of grandfather clocks to produce • Costs: – Fixed Cost = \$50, 000 (if Q > 0) – Variable Cost = \$400 Q – Total Cost = • 0, if Q = 0 • \$50, 000 + \$400 Q, if Q > 0 • Profit: – Profit = Total revenue – Total cost • Profit = 0, if Q = 0 • Profit = \$900 Q – (\$50, 000 + \$400 Q) = –\$50, 000 + \$500 Q, if Q > 0 Mc. Graw-Hill/Irwin 3 © The Mc. Graw-Hill Companies, Inc. , 2003

Analysis of the Problem Mc. Graw-Hill/Irwin 4 © The Mc. Graw-Hill Companies, Inc. , 2003

Management Science Interactive Modules • Sensitivity analysis can be performed using the Break-Even module in the Interactive Management Science Modules (available on your MS Courseware CD packaged with the text). – Here we see the impact of changing the fixed cost to \$75, 000. Mc. Graw-Hill/Irwin 5 © The Mc. Graw-Hill Companies, Inc. , 2003

Special Products Co. Spreadsheet Mc. Graw-Hill/Irwin 6 © The Mc. Graw-Hill Companies, Inc. , 2003

Special Products Co. Spreadsheet Mc. Graw-Hill/Irwin 7 © The Mc. Graw-Hill Companies, Inc. , 2003

Make or Buy? • Power Notebooks, Inc. is a manufacturer of notebook computers. They are trying to decide whether to purchase the LCD screens for their computers from an outside supplier or to manufacture the screens in-house. • The screens cost \$100 each from the outside supplier. • To set up the assembly process required to produce the screens in-house would cost \$10, 000. They could then produce each screen for \$75. Question: For what range of production volume is each alternative best? Mc. Graw-Hill/Irwin 8 © The Mc. Graw-Hill Companies, Inc. , 2003

An Advertising Problem • Parker Mothers is a manufacturer of children’s toys and games. One of their hottest selling toys is an interactive electronic Harry Potter doll. • Some data: – – • Unit Variable Cost: Unit Selling Price: Sales Force Salary: Fixed Overhead: \$48 \$65 \$9, 000 \$23, 000 Parker Mothers has analyzed past data for the Harry Potter doll (and other similar toys), and determined that sales are affected by a number of factors: – – – the season (e. g. , more at Christmas, more when a new Harry Potter book or movie is released, etc. ), the size of the sales force devoted to the product, the level of advertising. Question: What should the advertising budget for the Harry Potter doll be? (Proposal: \$10, 000) Mc. Graw-Hill/Irwin 9 © The Mc. Graw-Hill Companies, Inc. , 2003

Predicting the Sales Level • After performing a statistical regression analysis, they estimate that sales for the quarter will be approximately related to the season, sales force salary, and advertising budget, as follows: • Seasonality Factors: – – • Q 1: Q 2: Q 3: Q 4: 1. 2 (publication of new Harry Potter book) 0. 7 0. 8 1. 3 (Christmas and expected release of new Harry Potter movie) Effect of Advertising / Sales Force: Mc. Graw-Hill/Irwin 10 © The Mc. Graw-Hill Companies, Inc. , 2003

Spreadsheet for Quarter 1 Mc. Graw-Hill/Irwin 11 © The Mc. Graw-Hill Companies, Inc. , 2003

Trial Solutions Mc. Graw-Hill/Irwin 12 © The Mc. Graw-Hill Companies, Inc. , 2003

The Excel Solver Mc. Graw-Hill/Irwin 13 © The Mc. Graw-Hill Companies, Inc. , 2003

The Optimized Solution Mc. Graw-Hill/Irwin 14 © The Mc. Graw-Hill Companies, Inc. , 2003

Four Quarters Spreadsheet Mc. Graw-Hill/Irwin 15 © The Mc. Graw-Hill Companies, Inc. , 2003

Four Quarters Solver Optimized Mc. Graw-Hill/Irwin 16 © The Mc. Graw-Hill Companies, Inc. , 2003

Residual Effect Mc. Graw-Hill/Irwin 17 © The Mc. Graw-Hill Companies, Inc. , 2003

Residual Effect (Solver Optimized) Mc. Graw-Hill/Irwin 18 © The Mc. Graw-Hill Companies, Inc. , 2003

Solver Options Mc. Graw-Hill/Irwin 19 © The Mc. Graw-Hill Companies, Inc. , 2003

Residual Effect (Solver Re-Optimized) Mc. Graw-Hill/Irwin 20 © The Mc. Graw-Hill Companies, Inc. , 2003

Residual Effect with Budget (Optimized) Mc. Graw-Hill/Irwin 21 © The Mc. Graw-Hill Companies, Inc. , 2003

Adding a Constraint in Solver Mc. Graw-Hill/Irwin 22 © The Mc. Graw-Hill Companies, Inc. , 2003